Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[Thestatusquo]

Someone want to run by me why Gorgon is 50/50 the SK again? Or rather, for the first time because I don't think I've seen it done.

DGB, this is why I hate playing with you. You're the definition of dislogic. People have made the argument of a weighting system to balance scumminess with roles, and while I personally disagree with I some merit to it. But making the argument that someone is SCUM or not simply based on their role is completely wrong. Like, I can't even begin to think of a justification for it.

[Adele]

Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

cicero could be in cahoots with shafted (ie. both scum together, agreed that cicero would claim he targeted shafted and Shafted would confirm this; I'm not saying it's probable, merely that we don't "know" theat cicero didn't perform the kill)
ckd could be in cahoots with Gorgon (plan gone awry due to lack of SK-kill)

So I think you need to add cicero, CKD and Gorgon to the list - leaving just two people who definately didn't perform the kill, but could still be scum.
Could have performed it (I think):
Fonz
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ
Cicero
Gorgon
CKD

Adele, I watched shaft.ed, remember? So I can confirm cicero targetted shaft.ed. Though there is the possibility that one might think cicero, shaft.ed and I are all scum together.

Unlikely, though. OK, so probably not Cicero.
Is there any reason why Gorgon or CKD couldn't've if they were working together though? In any case, that's not really enough information; we can't narrow the list down over several nights as the killer this night coming could be one of the people cleared of killing last night, and stuff. So out of ten living players containing 3 scum we have a list of seven containing at least 1. So, we've discovered that Yvonne, cicero and shaft.ed can't

all

be scum (working from the assumption that Yvonne, cicero and shaft.ed aren't all scum).

Is that what we've learned?

[curiouskarmadog]

DGB, this is why I hate playing with you. You're the definition of dislogic. People have made the argument of a weighting system to balance scumminess with roles, and while I personally disagree with I some merit to it. But making the argument that someone is SCUM or not simply based on their role is completely wrong. Like, I can't even begin to think of a justification for it.

qft

[YvonneSeer]

Unlikely, though. OK, so probably not Cicero.
Is there any reason why Gorgon or CKD couldn't've if they were working together though? In any case, that's not really enough information; we can't narrow the list down over several nights as the killer this night coming could be one of the people cleared of killing last night, and stuff. So out of ten living players containing 3 scum we have a list of seven containing at least 1. So, we've discovered that Yvonne, cicero and shaft.ed can't

all

be scum (working from the assumption that Yvonne, cicero and shaft.ed aren't all scum).

Is that what we've learned?

I guess they could be scum together or CKD could be scum alone. Either way, you're right, we can't remove them from the list of possible killers. I don't think this list is very helpful. And that's why I've asked Fonz what we could do with the information. From the looks of it, not much.

[DrippingGoofball]

Someone want to run by me why Gorgon is 50/50 the SK again? Or rather, for the first time because I don't think I've seen it done.

DGB, this is why I hate playing with you. You're the definition of dislogic. People have made the argument of a weighting system to balance scumminess with roles, and while I personally disagree with I some merit to it. But making the argument that someone is SCUM or not simply based on their role is completely wrong. Like, I can't even begin to think of a justification for it.

Hey! Who's not paying attention now? I said that I was first going to lay out arguments relating to roles. Then I would lay out arguments on individual players according to what they posted in the game.

Naturally, as my analysis progresses, I will include the role information as part of my famous dyslogic, but it's not the end all conclusion by any stretch.

[DrippingGoofball]

BTW - I will look at every player in detail, in alphetical order. Today I will look at Adele (how lucky is that?) and cicero. I'll do the rest later.

[curiouskarmadog]

dgb, why include arguements for who is scum based on roles, what purpose does it serve?

[cicero]

She dove in without reading carefully again.

[Adele]

dgb, why include arguements for who is scum based on roles, what purpose does it serve?

Well, it annoys me.

[curiouskarmadog]

She dove in without reading carefully again.

did she admit to that?

[Gorgon]

Well, things don't look to good for me. Of course, I'm not Sylar, although I guess there's not much that I can say to absolutely convince anyone of this.

Since I might well get lynched due to the unfortunate circumstances, I might as well tell you that I got no notice of being targeted by either ckd or DBG - so for future reference, it doesn't seem like one is made aware of being targeted by these powers.

I won't reveal whether I tried to phase out or not, as I don't see how this information would be useful to anyone.

One question for DBG - why target me? Seems to me from the ordering of powers, my phasing out would mean that I can't be targeted by you anyway; my power has top priority. Anyway, I don't see many benefits of nullifying my power.

As for your analysis ...

Here Gorgon seems to be acutely aware of notions like being tracked or not, detering players from targetting him at night, SURVIVAL is the extent of his usefulness... I find that post, alone and in itself, a MEGA SK tell.

Survival is the extent of the usefulness of my role. Forgive me for saying this out loud ...

In his post #6, Gorgon votes CKD. Interesting choice: CKD is one role that can definitely prevent him from nightkilling. Reason given: "wavering in his accusations." Pretty weak reason.

I explained the exact reason both in the post where I voted, and after. You're just simplifying things.

Then he votes Zoneace, and stays on this aborted wagon for a long long time.

And?

Meanwhile he continues to go after CKD. Doesn't vote for CKD again. Very focused and tunnel-visioned on CKD.

The guy went after me. I had dropped the case of him and was calling him likely town well before the end of the day. Misrepresent much?

Then he comes in sporadically with excuses for inactivity.

I've been very, very busy in RL, as can be seen by my posting history in general.

In his last post, Jan 11, Gorgon approves of the Oman lynch without much explanation, and without having expressed much prior suspicion of Oman beforehand. Like, you know, whatever wagon, he approves.

I had already explained before then why I was leaning more towards Oman in the end - the nature of Oman's role, as argued by cicero.

I expressed doubts about an Oman or ZA lynch often throughout the day; I believe I explained my attitude towards them quite well, and was open with my thoughts. The guys both turned up town. Now I'm suddenly being presented as a guy who didn't care who got lynched. Bah.

[cicero]

She dove in without reading carefully again.

did she admit to that?

No.

[DrippingGoofball]

She dove in without reading carefully again.

did she admit to that?

No.

Yes I did. What I said is that I am first starting by looking at what can be inferred from the roles. But now I'm sitting down and going to be Adele's biggest nightmare. Yay!

davidangelsummers wrote:
Is their any role that people would definitely not like me to protect tonight?
Obviously a lot of people will be hesitant to target me tonight (Sad) but I don't think you need to be. If you were to protect me, aside from being safer, I'd also gain a skill that's very useful to the town. But of course, since you want the scum not to know who you're targeting, you shouldn't pick someone (too guessable) but pick 3ish different people and randomise the selection (diceroll or if you're a pedant, random.org). Scum can't outplay you if it's not your decision Wink.

Here she tries to direct another player trying to look like she's not directing another player. Failed.

[quote="JDodge']Unvote, vote: Oman

I do.
Vote: JDodge[/quote]Here defends a townie with scummy certainty.

[quote="Oman"Adele is a key person to dicover the alignment of.[/quote]
/agree in theory, but there's no such thing as confirmation here, only accusation. I mean, there's no cop that can investigate me and say "Yup, she's clean". So it reads to me just like you want me to be subject to higher-than-average suspicion and scrutiny.[/quote]Rubs me the wrong way.

Just to be completely self obsessed and go through everyone whether my power makes me a good or bad target:
Zindaras: Mohinder Suresh, Networker - Neutral; I can't absorb this ability
mathcam: Ted Sprague, Walking Bomb - Bad, obv Razz
Oman: Eden McCain, Subliminal Influencer - Bad, as it devalues other roles
curiouskarmadog: The man with the horn-rimmed glasses, Jailkeeper - Neutral (obviously I'd prefer not, but it doesn't have knock-on effects in terms of my ability)
JDodge: the Haitian, Dampener - Damps my ability to learn. Bad, if only town-positive powers are targeting me.
shaft.ed: Nathan Petrelli, Motivator - Potentially really good... I'm gonna say good
Thestatusquo: Ando Masahashi, Vanilla - Neutral Razz
ZONEACE: Matt Parkman, Tracker - Good.
Gorgon: DL Hawkins, Hider - Good
YvonneSeer: Claude Rains, Watcher - Good
davidangelsummers: Daniel Linderman, Doctor - Good

The red part weirds me out.

Adele: I would want to know exactly which powers she is getting and why. I think it would be helpful for judging her and her targeters alignments.

If you're looking to catch me out, remember that I'm a self-watcher, so I'd know that Claude was watching me, and know not to lie.
If you're looking to catch my targeters out, remember I'm a self-watcher, so I'd be able to perform that function.
If you're looking to force me to tell the truth, that makes sense - but remember that if I lied my targeters could reveal me.

david is the doctor, and unlikely scum. They sure aren't buddies; but this strikes me as a scum interacting with a townie.

I'd like as many players as possible - especially investigative players - to make a commitment to not lie, and a corollary commitment from as many as possible to enforce this by agreeing that if someone is caught in a lie they are the priority lynch.

[/quote]Adele seems to have caught Yvonne in a lie. Why isn't she pursuing it more aggressively? What I am missing? Was it just a joke?

[cicero]

DGB you still have not confirmed that you understand that ANY ROLE could be scum in this game. Your initial posts demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of that aspect of the game. Do you now understand that ANY ROLE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING SCUM? Roles get picked. Then who is scummed gets randomly picked. Do you get that?

[DrippingGoofball]

Next up: cicero. Meta: he's posting as much, as frequently, and as hotly as I've seen him as town. However he's very quick to announce his enthusiastic willingness to vote Oman. That's not a scum move, because there was no call to bus Oman at that point, he was easy to defend, therefore, a poor bus'ing choice. But then he goes overboard and becomes paranoid about Oman being Sylar. I agree with cicero's assessment of shafted, Gorgon and Yvonne: shafted is "the man" Gorgon is "not trusted" and Yvonne is "lurking noobscum."

But then he quickly voted for Oman, and never unvoted.

Behaviorally, I'd peg him as SK. He's not tying himself to anyone, talking a lot, and very happy to get rid of the wagon leader without delay.

[cicero]

To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB you still have not confirmed that you understand that ANY ROLE could be scum in this game. Your initial posts demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of that aspect of the game. Do you now understand that ANY ROLE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING SCUM? Roles get picked. Then who is scummed gets randomly picked. Do you get that?

Aye, I have trouble wrapping my head around this.

[DrippingGoofball]

To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

Fascinating. I love this. Adele, Fritzler, Quagmire, MoS will kill me on Night 0 if they can - they can't help themselves. You can take it to the bank. Maybe I should add TSQ to the list.

[cicero]

DGB you still have not confirmed that you understand that ANY ROLE could be scum in this game. Your initial posts demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of that aspect of the game. Do you now understand that ANY ROLE HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING SCUM? Roles get picked. Then who is scummed gets randomly picked. Do you get that?

Aye, I have trouble wrapping my head around this.

Well... start. Making any suppositions based on who is scum or sylar based on what role they have will mean that your argument starts from a false premise. This game is a "smalltown" game. It's a different variation of mafia. Invented by Adele no less. Roles are picked by the players. They are open. Everyone knows them. Then the scum positions are randomly assigned. Challenging I know but there it is.

[cicero]

To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

This is the dumbest thing I've said out loud in a mafia game ever. Pressed send and then gave myself a giant headsmack.

My apologies.

[DrippingGoofball]

To others. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Adele is probably scum based on the simple principle that Adele is still alive.

Discuss.

This is the dumbest thing I've said out loud in a mafia game ever. Pressed send and then gave myself a giant headsmack.

My apologies.

I disagree. Anyway. Stop distracting me. Gonna skip the alphabetical order business because I want to take a closer look at Gorgon and mathcam. Mathcam is a banana peel.

[curiouskarmadog]

wtf jsut happened to this game?

[The Fonz]

It's been Goofballed.

[cicero]

Mod, could you update the first post to show DGB

?

[mathcam]

How is it avoidable? If everyone reveals their nightchoices, then it can be easily figured out; either my information matches what they say or it doesn't - in which case I think I ought to say so.

Yeah, I misspoke slightly -- I meant that Adele's status should be kept hidden, not just that Adele should stay quiet. This would require compliance by more than just Adele herself.

Someone want to run by me why Gorgon is 50/50 the SK again? Or rather, for the first time because I don't think I've seen it done.

Sure. A rough argument is the following. Consider all possible pairs of the form (Player A, Player B) where Player A is Sylar and Player B is whoever Sylar tried to kill last night. As of last night, with no extra information, there were 11 possible choices (anyone but Oman) for Player A and for each choice, 10 different choices for Player B (assuming Sylar would not target himself). A total of 110 different possibilities.

Now, assuming that Sylar tried to kill last night, the fact that no one died means that Gorgon was either Player A or Player B. He is player A in exactly 10 of the 110 possibilities (e.g., (Gorgon, Adele), (Gorgon, cicero), ..., (Gorgon, The Fonz)) and is Player B also in exactly 10 of the 110 possibilities (same pairs, just flipped). Thus out of the 20 possible scenarios, he was scum in 10 of them. This makes for 50/50.

Obviously there are some erroneous assumptions in this model -- namely, there is a positive probability that Sylar would choose not to kill, and it is clearly not the case that Sylar would kill any non-Sylar person with equal probability. Also, presumably information from Day 1 would make some people more or less likely to be Sylar, which hasn't been incorporated into this model. Nonetheless, I think the answer so overwhelmingly supports the conclusion that Gorgon is the most likely to be Sylar that I think that barring any outstanding evidence against someone else, Gorgon should be our lynch for today.

Cam