Mini 532: Yaw's Split Open Mafia: (Game over)

[bird1111]

Prodded Drunken Piper.

Vote Count:
kabenon007 (1): Holy

Not voting (6): mikeburnfire, Drunken Piper, Thanatos, SensFan, kabenon007, Skruffs

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch

[Drunken Piper]

The mod feels like I dont post enough, I got the hunch.
There is nothing really to comment on a bunch.

Me thinks the game is simple, if you just follow the scum killing plan,
Me thinks that our remaining mafia is Sensfan

Let his activity, content, and voting habits speak for him.
And you will find that his town probability looks quite dim.

This being said, I would also be down for a Kab lynch.
For me thinks he is the SK, and it is time for him to take the bench.

He makes mountains out of mole hills and is very pragmatic.
Given their actions, these votes should be automatic.

Today most likely I will only vote these two.
Unless you can make a better case, lynch me if that bothers you.

[Thanatos]

holy, there is a problem with that logic. I didn't consider there was a scum doc (and, in fact, we now know that it was QB) but if I had known that there was one, would I have acted as confidant? I'm not used to the concept of a Scum-doc. It seems silly. Of course, in hind-sight, I really should have realized it.

Listen, Holy, I came out and claimed, and that claim help lead to half of the scum going down in one blow. So, for the moment at least, give me the benifit of the doubt. I'll be dead soon enough anyways.

Right now, we need to focus. We know for a fact that there's a scum RB. can we go over who is still unclaimed. For sure, one of those people will be scum, and one of those people needs to die ASAP.

[mikeburnfire]

When we had two claimed cops, I still didn't know who actually said the truth.

Drunken Piper, while your rhyming is amusing, please pay attention. We have already determined that the last scum is almost certainly a roleblocker, and sensfan has not been counterclaimed on being a roleswitcher. He is not scum. SK maybe, but not scum.

Than, this is what we have left in the way of roles:
1 Sane Cop (you)
1 Roleblocker (mafia)
1 Role Switcher
1 Role Re-Opener(sensfan)
1 Night Communicator (me)
3 Unpowered

Hey wait a second. I just noticed this. It says we have 8 roles open, but only 7 players are currently alive. Sensfan, is this your doing?

[Drunken Piper]

When we had two claimed cops, I still didn't know who actually said the truth.

Drunken Piper, while your rhyming is amusing, please pay attention. We have already determined that the last scum is almost certainly a roleblocker, and sensfan has not been counterclaimed on being a roleswitcher. He is not scum. SK maybe, but not scum.

Dont push your logic on me.
there are other possiblities

Why cant the SK be the blocker of roles?
Blocks the cop and rakes another (kills) over the coals.

[Skruffs]

IT is strange that the mafia doctor would bus the mafia role switcher like that, especially after claiming.




Comment:

The role switcher would want to trade out negative roles (Unpowered, for example) in return for the possibility of new ones. Correct?

We know that the Mafia had a doctor and a role switcher. We know that the doctor protected the cop, n1, although the doctor hadn't claimed.

With MBF saying that the scum had a roleblocker, the doctor had a perfect oppurtunity to kill Thanatos while saying he was roleblocked. Instead, the mafia killed Korlash. That's very strange.


MBF: You targetted Zhao the night he died, right? Since he had no killing role, that means that you did not prevent a kill that night. However, there *was* a kill that night. Which means the doctor successfully protected.

Since the doctor successfully protected, and the role switcher successfully switched, that means that, most likely, the third scum is the one who killed Zhao. The mafia would have no reason to target themselves, so there is no reason to think they would not target someone to Kill.

The doctor claims to have protected Thanatos. Since he really was the doctor, the only person who would know if he was fake claiming or not, would be the serial killer, who might have tried to kill one of the mafias, and was 'protected'.

Alternatively, both mafia and scum targetted the mason n1, and that's why there was only one kill.

Mod: Sorry if this has been asked before, but if the SK has a role other than murdering, and is roleblocked, are both roles blocked?

Yes.

My theory is: The roleswitcher was trading out other roles that weren't mafia because they had the doc, cop, and roleswitcher already.

The SK was the mason, and was traded with MBF, who was teh roleblocker.

The SK roleblocked the cop and killed the doctor, not knowing that the doctor was in fact mafia.

If the role switcher had in fact switched the roleblocker INTO mafia, then they could have easily setup a situation where the doctor was 'blocked' and the cop killed.

Because that Didn't happen, I think that the Roleblocker is the SK, and I think that the cop is actually the last mafia.

Scandalous, I know.

[Skruffs]

the cop is dead tonight, regardless of his alignment, so I don't think there's really any reason to lynch him or anything today.

[kabenon007]

That's true, but then if we regard the cop as scum, what do we do today? Try to find the SK?

[mikeburnfire]

Skruffs, your theory makes no sense. Why would the mafia cop announce that he has a guilty on the mafia roleswitcher? Even if it was a gambit, why would the mafia roleswitcher then counterclaim him with a guilty result on the mafia doctor? If the scum already had the doctor, cop, and roleswitcher, then WHY in the world would they do such a risky gambit? Especially with a SK on the prowl, trying to take out powerful threats?

FOS: Skruffs

for trying to persuade me that the cop is the last scum and

VOTE: Kabenon

for instantly going along with it. I was only going to FOS you, but I'm pretty sure you're the last mafiascum.

[kabenon007]

MBF you are being stupid. Why would you place a finger of scum on someone when you think I am the last scum? There can't be two scum left... are you confused? And by the way, you'll notice I didn't go along with it. You twisted my words to suit your own wants and desires to have me lynched. I said it was true, but my doubts were expressed in the rest of the post.

[mikeburnfire]

There can't be two scum left... are you confused?

Oh my God, this game makes me want to rip my hair out. It's called a Finger of Suspicion, not a Finger of Scum.

And yes, you did go along with it. Because it's entirely improbable and would only work if all the mafia were complete idiots.

[Holy]

@DrunkenPiper: I played with Sensfan on other 2 games, he was replaced and the other one he acted just like here. So in general from my 3 games with him, he is a lurkish player, so I still doubt about him being SK if based from that suspicion.

@Thanatos: I only explained about Day 2, and I didn't consider to push a case towards you today. Note: the roles placed randomly, so the probability is there, period. For today: We had 2 deaths last night,

if you tell us the truth

that you were roleblocked, I didn't think that you're a mafia or SK. I'm sure that you definitely not the scum based from Day 2. To

confirm

about whether you are the SK or not, is another case.

[Holy]

EBWOP: I only explained about Day 2 (my post #674 meant to answer MBF)

[mikeburnfire]

If the cop is not scum, then he was legitimately roleblocked by the mafia, which means we would not have had two kills last night if he was the SK. Therefore, Thantos is clean.

[Holy]

^Yep, I guess so too, although not confirmed yet.

[mikeburnfire]

He's confirmed enough for me.

[Thanatos]

Well, thanks, but it's alright. For the moment, we have alot to go on. Holy's right, really. I COULD be the SK, if phate was mafia. There's no reason I can't be. Either way, you don't have any reason to kill me right now.

In the mean time, I'll say it again, I'd like to focus on figuring out who the RB is, and killing him. They we'll be down to a single mafia/SK

[mikeburnfire]

If anybody wants to try to convince me that Thantos is our SK, then they are going to have to refute this logic:

If the cop is not scum, then he was legitimately roleblocked by the mafia, which means we would not have had two kills last night if he was the SK. Therefore, Thantos is clean.

The only way to disprove this is to

(A) Suggest the cop is scum, which is incredibly stupid
(B) Suggest the mafia ignored the threat the cop posed by blocking somebody else or nobody at all, which is also incredibly stupid

[mikeburnfire]

In the mean time, I'll say it again, I'd like to focus on figuring out who the RB is, and killing him. They we'll be down to a single mafia/SK

Exactly. We need to stop with these crazy speculations in which the cop who got two scums killed is the last scum, or that the mafia are killing themselves. I repeat,

Well, we know that Sensfan is the role opener, since he's unclaimed, and you're the cop. And since it's pretty obvious that Phate switched the scum's role with mine, it pretty much confirms that I'm telling the truth about being a mason. That leaves kabenon, Skruffs, Holy, or Piper as the last scum. And I've said before that Zhao and Holy were too confrontational to just be bussing, so I don't consider her a plausible scum, leaving just Piper, Skruffs, or kabenon. I've picked kabenon for reasons I've already said[...]

[...]whoever is the mason-turned-roleblocker is almost definitely the last scum, and I see instances of masonry between [kabenon] and Zhao on Day 1.

He didn't show a connection to anybody else except for you. When OTM attacked you, [Zhao] defended you. Your name comes up a lot in his posts, but never under suspicion.

Also, I'm pretty sure this explains why the mafia killed Korlash:

I'm disappointed that Korlash wasn't the SK... he was my number one candidate.

[Drunken Piper]

There can't be two scum left... are you confused?

Math is tough what to do
but I know that Sk plus one mafia left is a scum total of 2.

@DrunkenPiper: I played with Sensfan on other 2 games, he was replaced and the other one he acted just like here. So in general from my 3 games with him, he is a lurkish player, so I still doubt about him being SK if based from that suspicion.

I for one know the Mod is on top of this game.
So why hasnt his fate in this game been the same?

He's posted in the last 72 hours, and also I know he's busy right now. He'll be prodded if 72 hours passes without him posting

MBF, did I miss this or did you not address,
The other possibilities of the SK in this mess.

Why cant the SK be the blocker of roles?
Blocks the cop and rakes another (kills) over the coals.

[mikeburnfire]

I suppose it's possible that Phate switched my role with the Serial Killer's. I'm not sure how likely that is, though. It makes more sense that he switched out his scumpartner's useless mason role.

I'm still waiting for sensfan to show up and answer my question of why, if he didn't open anyone's role last night, Phate's role is open.

[Skruffs]

Calm down, mbf.
The roleblocker has to be scum. Otherwise, they'd've claimed.
I'm suggesting that it also has to be sk.

I am also curious as to why the mafia, with the doctor on their side, 'allowed' the cop to live through the night, when, they could have claimed the doctor was blocked and killed the cop.

Why all the fussiness, mbf?
You have to consider all possibilities, , and eliminate, all the ones that can be proven false, to wind up with the remaining possible ones.

[mikeburnfire]

Isn't that a logical fallacy? Something along the lines of "Equal time for nimrods," where you take a considerable amount of time to entertain a crazy crackpot theory?

I prefer the principles of Ockam's Razor: the simplest solution is the most likely.

I am also curious as to why the mafia, with the doctor on their side, 'allowed' the cop to live through the night, when, they could have claimed the doctor was blocked and killed the cop.

Simple. The cop is less of a threat than a SK, especially when you can keep him blocked.

[Holy]

Speculation on night 1: there's only one murder, I don't know whether the Mafia and SK chose the same target (MBF blocked Zhao townie, I guess QB doc definitely protected his own mate, not the cop) or the SK chose to murder the one that protected by scum-doc, and the most speculative theory is because the SK didn't post his night action at all, Sensfan claimed as role-opener, he said he didn't open the role from the dead to prevents scum took advantage, but what if actually he didn't get a chance to post his night choice at all? Thus he might be our SK. I'm not sure about this actually, because the mod maybe prod him to get his night action.

[bird1111]

SensFan prodded.