Mini 523 - Game Over!

[liamcool]

Vote Count

Thanatos (1) - Nudude
Nudude (1) - Thanatos

Not Voting (5) - Dark_Lady_Shaiann, liamcool, Infinitive, Gorgon, charter

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

We had a big case against him as scum early on day 2, influenced heavily by DT. That derailed as a result of VL's investigation, but I'd like to bring it back to life now, of people don't mind.

Feel free to. If you wish you waste your time on investigating a townie instead of targeting someone who's allignment hasn't been confirmed, you can go right ahead. You're welcome to ask questions, make statements, whatever, I don't mind, but note in advance you're wasting your time.

[Infinitive]

Well, Liam, would you care to add anything to the investigation currently underway? If you're town, as you claim, shouldn't you have a pretty well-vested interest in the outcome of day 3? You've been lurking hardcore ever since VL investigated you and you came up clean.

[Nudude]

I'm debating on whether or not I should unvote. If I unvote it keeps the last 2 mafia from hammering (if Nudude isn't one of them), and forces them to actually participate. If I leave my vote, and the previous scenario occurs...atleast we will know who truly is scum, but will we be able to do anything about it D4?

I feel that Than being SK is a tad more likely than him being the vig, but like I said, I'm fairly certain he's going to get NK'd so.....whatever. I have no idea what you were trying to say when you were explaining why you think Than won't get NK'd, Nudude.

And no. No one is going to bet their life on whether or not you are scum, Nudude. It was stupid of you to suggest you were going to do it, and stupid for you to think we are going to do the same thing for you. Than's situation was different. He was trying to protect a cop (or so he says)....not prove a point.

Oh, and Nudude, why do you think that just becuase we want you dead, it means we don't believe you about Than? Like I said, I feel he is most likely SK then Vig, but that fact is not going to save you. Stop going on about it. Come up with reasons as to why we shouldn't lynch you, not why we should lynch Than (let's not take into consideration the fact that we shouldn't lynch you is so we can lynch Than ). Bottom line is, it's not working. You are arguing with yourself.

I think I will

unvote

for now, and wait for the others to get back.

There is wisdom in your words. If everyone is at least willing to consider that Thanatos claim is false, I'll leave it alone.

If you looking for a reason to not lynch me, I'd say primarily because I generate discussion. If you have a look at D2, the town was quiet during the times I wasn't available to post, and if you doubt that then by all means have a look at the posting patterns. There were a few times when days would go by without a post, so I would investigate someone and then everyone started talking again.

I feel as if people are afraid to point at someone and say "Your scum, and this is why" because they feel if their wrong, their going to look scummy. Personally, I feel it's more important to have discussions flowing, so if that means I get a few suspicious stares and fingers pointed at me, then so be it. The town needs information to make accurate lynches.

It doesn't help the town if people keep them thoughts to themselves.

[Thanatos]

hmm...This would explain your actions to some degree Nudude...but the way in which you back them up, the way you cling to them despite unadressed and overwhelming evidence, and your sacrifice play reek of scum...At the very least, I'll keep my vote on you, but I don't advocate a Quick-lynch.

[Nudude]

I'd hardly call the evidence in your favour over - whelming, but I agreed to leave it alone.

So, who should I look at next then?

[Thanatos]

From what I have seen thus far...there is a large probability that either you or Infinitive is scum. Right now, this is mostly a hunch based on the voting patterns, and the way in which the two of you interact with people in this game...but I believe that if one of you has to be scum, with a buddy being either Gorgon or Liam. I want to examine this possibility some..with a cup of piping hot testimony!

...*cough* I play too much PW...but the point remains, I want to investigate infinitive a bit. I want to know more about the way he's been playing this game, specificly what he thinks about everyone (we've heard it all before, I know, but bear with me, please) and what his impression of the game as a whole is.

I would also like a comment from Gorgon on the dispute between Nudude and myself.

[Infinitive]

Well, feel free to investigate me to your heart's content. I've got nothing to hide.

What I think of people? I think I've posted on this several times just recently, but I'll provide a further summary as follows:

DLS: Almost certainly town. Plays defensively in general, but has come out of her shell of late.
Charter: Smart, perceptive and cautious. He plays this game like I want to play it- he catches stuff I miss and (up until recently) regularly made valuable contributions to the town.
Liamcool: Pretty well the scummiest player still alive in the game. There's a long history of suspicion against him, due both to what he's done and how much he's lurked when not actively under investigation. Had a clean investigation, but the game consensus seems to be that that's only got about a 50% chance of being accurate even if he IS scum. Personally, I think he is.
Gorgon: A canny fellow. He's added useful stuff to the game on a pretty steady basis; only recently has he gone AWOL. Still, he was a part of the DT lynch and (I think) was not a part of the Liam lynch.
Thanatos: Spearheaded the DT lynch on day 1 then changed his playstyle on day 2 to something much more conservative. Has committed several fairly scummy acts, but has understandable (if not particularly great) counterpoints for those items. Now claiming to be a vig, which I'm inclined to believe for now. Vig is a common role, and at this depth in the game, one that would be dangerous to falsely claim without certainty that there's no real Vig.
Nudude: I've posted two long analyses of his activity recently. Go back and read them if you have any questions about my attitude regarding Nudude.

My impression of the game as a whole: everyone in this game seems to be willing to play slow and careful, which suits me fine. Scum has been fairly good at hiding themselves within the lengthy series of discussions and investigations, with the exception of Disciple Slayer and, possibly, Liam. The game seems to be speeding up somewhat as peoples' opinions of specific others in the game are firming up; everyone at this point has a solid opinion of the surviving players in the game, and posting histories have served to give people significant tools with which to pry at unusual behavior in any specific player. My current suspicion of Nudude is based in large part on a major play inconsistency right before the Disciple Slayer lynch, for example.

Anything else?

[liamcool]

Gorgon: A canny fellow. He's added useful stuff to the game on a pretty steady basis; only recently has he gone AWOL. Still, he was a part of the DT lynch and (I think) was not a part of the Liam lynch.

Totally wrong. Gorgon was on the bandwagon to lynch me for something like ten pages. He only jumped on the DT wagon in order to end day 1.

[Infinitive]

AH. I beg your pardon, Liam. It's hard to keep track of stuff when the game goes so long.

[Gorgon]

Sorry, I've been very busy lately, as can be seen in that I haven't posted anywhere. I'll try and make up for it over the weekend.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

So.....I take it we are all waiting on Gorgon now.....That's not a bad idea

[Gorgon]

I have to admit, you make some good points. It doesn't make alot of sense if your a SK. In fact, the one theory I came up with is that if you are an SK, it's in your best interests to kill scum tonight if we lynch a townie, in which case we should let you live one more night at the very least just in case we get it wrong today.

Remember ... he says he was roleblocked. If he's correct, which is likely, he's useless for the rest of the game since the roleblocker now knows he chose correctly. I don't believe the roleblocker would want to block someone else, whether it's a town or a mafia roleblocker.

How can you be so certain Thanatos is going to get NK'ed tomorrow? If he's scum, and survives the night he could just as easily say "Geez, they must have role blocked me again". No matter how you look at it, if there is a role - blocker, there is zero reason to kill Thanatos tonight. They can continue to role - block and confuse the town. While Thanatos, to you, may not be the best lynch, that logic is flawed.

There is no logic that can 100% prove or disprove Thanatos claim untill he is either lynched or he gets to end - game, and I'm amazed everyone so far is accepting his claim so readily, going so far as to call me scummy because I don't accept it straight away.

... as you admit here. Yes, I agree - I think Thanatos will just be blocked and blocked until he's lynched.

I believe the evidence that Thanatos might be the SK is mounting. He didn't actually take that big of a risk. Say he's SK. He killed Insurgent N1 (A choice I don't fully understand). He then states at the end of D2 that he will claim the next day. He then tries to kill Nudude, gets blocked (or just skips the kill), and sees that there was just one death that night. He knows pretty much by now that there's most likely no actual vig in the game. He goes ahead and claims vig.

Another thing that bothers me is his whole SKs count as townies in the endgame, which was misleading. It came off to me like he was saying that if all the mafia are dead, the SK wins with the town, which is false. Only in a very limited number of situations is it beneficial for town to keep an SK alive. I also find it suspicious that he should address the possibility, and this makes me more inclined to believe that he's an SK playing for survival.

I also feel that the fact that Thanatos has been seen to be eager to go to night is a strong clue.

In his favour, he does protest against Nudude's plan of 'betting the game', which is admittedly a rather silly plan. No townie should ever offer to sacrifice himself. If we lynch Thanatos today and he's actually town, we should consider the situation carefully - no just rush to lynch Nudude, just because he made a bet. Come to think of it, this could be a way for Nudude to come off townish ...

Btw, I see charter still hasn't been replaced. This is frustrating, as we can't really have a full game without all the player slots filled.

Also, liamcool is very quiet. Either that's his playstyle, or he just thinks he gets a free pass because he's been investigated as innocent. That's by no means true.

[Infinitive]

Liam was being plenty vocal before VL came out and cleared him; ever since, he's said almost nothing. This is a pretty good chunk of the reason that I think he's the Godfather; it's absolutely in his best interest to do nothing whatsoever at all right now that might possibly incriminate himself, or even draw attention back to himself.

Liam, please speak up. We're getting pretty well on int eh game, and I want to hear what you have to say about the Nudude/Thanatos situation.

[Gorgon]

... This is a pretty good chunk of the reason that I think he's the Godfather; it's absolutely in his best interest to do nothing whatsoever at all right now that might possibly incriminate himself, or even draw attention back to himself. ...

... or connect himself with his scumpartners.

I was looking over DS's posts to find connections (finally I took the time!) and noticed that DS was casting suspicions on liam on D1, while remaining fixed on DT, the doc. Very possible distancing.

Then there is this little gem (DS's post 83):

The cop, whoever it is,

should investigate liamcool if DT gets lynched

, and vice versa if the opposite happens. Doesn't mean he has to come forward with the info, but one of the two should definitely be investigated.
@DT

Are you and liamcool partners in crime? Are you setting it up so that if one of you gets lynched and turns up mafia, suspicion on the other will lessen due to your blatant fingering of each other?

Theory: That was deliberate, in order to get the doc lynched,

and

the GF investigated and cleared. If so, it worked beautifully.

Also, in DS's post 115 (This is day 2), addressing liamcool:

Man, you have some posting to do. Get more active.

Coaching buddy liamcool to be more active?

Admittedly, DS does say this in his post 151:

If liamcool's been scummy the whole game, but turned up innocent in an investigation, he could very well be the godfather.

... but he never actually goes after him. Despite liamcool being his #2 suspect D1, he instead pursues mostly DLS and Thanatos throughout D2, and only in passing mentions the possibility that yes, liamcool might be the godfather. But why not pursue it further, if he was that convinced D1?

Also, note that DS didn't even go after liamcool D2 at all - not even

before

VL revealed his investigation.

I think this is a theory that's well worth pursuing.

Vote: liamcool

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Something seems a little bit wrong here, but I want to see what some one else thinks about what happaned before I decide to say anything.

[Nudude]

I feel most of the players in this game are playing it cautiously at the moment, waiting for other people to post, and hoping that it will be the post that clears everything up.

I don't feel this is likely to happen. Most players have already stated the things they believe, and why they believe them. If there was going to be something said to set you on your course, I daresay it would already have been said.

I suggest everyone takes the time to read back over the thread. It may take about an hour, give or take, but I think it will help everyone get a better idea of where they stand.

Try to do it with an open mind. Pretend your not actually in this game, your just perusing it from an outside view. Try to figure out what each person is trying to accomplish when they post.

I know we were waiting on gorgon to post, but it seems like we're not coming up with many new ideas and evidence, as much as waiting for someone to say something that incriminates them. I don't believe scum are just going to come out and say something stupid. I feel we need to come up with theories, run them by people, and see how people respond to them.

I've been doing my fair share of that this game. I would like to see someone else try it. I don't mind doing it myself, but last time I did I got two votes for it.

So, who's going to generate some discussion?

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Well......I just want to see if any one else saw what I just saw. Of course you didn't see it Nudude, since Gorgon is now officially one person not hot on your ass.

[Nudude]

I drew this conclusion from Gorgon's post.

He's eager to explore new possibilites. His post is well though out and he presents rational evidence. As for myself, IRL my work revolves around statistics, and statisical it is unlikely liamcool is the GF, so I will need something very compelling to vote for liam. However, even though statiscally it's unlikely liamcool is the GF, I don't feel any problem with gorgon exploring the possibility if he feels it's an avenue worth persuing.

As for me, you critisied me for my narrow pursuit of Thanatos, yet you are just as narrow minded, if not more-so, in your pursuit of me, your just using less words than I did.

I am going to suggest having a read over the thread, pulling up some evidence, and presenting some theories to us. Hell, investigate me if you want, just do something more than pick apart individual posts.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

I already did my "investigation" on you. I have no reason to go back, and I don't understand how I can be narrow minded when I agreed with you about Thanatos. Obviously, you're afraid that I have picked up on something bad in Gorgon's posts and now you are trying to undermine my "discovery" before I even present it.

[Nudude]

Your quite right, I had forgotten about your post. Sorry.

I don't quite know what to make of you DLS. Your logic can be hard to follow, well for me at least, but I feel most people in the game would agree with that. I'm not saying what your saying is invalid, but it's hard to figure out what your trying to get at sometimes.

I don't know if it's because your scum trying to put together evidence that doesn't quite fit, or that it's simply your style of presenting evidence isn't clear. Anyone please correct me if they feel I'm wrong.

I feel I'm at the point where I should simply stop replying to your posts, simply because whenever I say something, it seems to dig me in a deeper hole with you, and I'm not quite sure why. Again, I'm not saying you have invalid points, simply that I have a hard time following your logic, so it makes it hard to present my defense, even more so a defence that applies to your logic.

By all means keep posting and forming your conclusions, but I just don't think were making alot of sense to each other, and it's just serving to confuse things.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

You know very well why you keep digging yourself into a deeper whole with me. It's becuase half the time you make no sense, and I'm very quick to point it out.

Anyway, what this whole situation looks like to me is that, even though I am following Gorgon's logic, it just seems like he pushed past the Nudude lynch that we all seem to be going for today, and went after Liam. The only reason that I can come up with as to why he would barely touch on the idea of a Nudude lynch would be simply because they are scum buddies. He's had ample time to form an opinion on Nudude, but instead brought Liam back into the spotlight without really saying anything about Nudude, except about his stupid sacrifice play. I asked earlier in the day that we not lynch any one until we were "certain" who their scum buddy is. Now we have 2 people that some of us want lynched today. Gorgon, it looks like you have a case to prove, but not so much as to why we should lynch Liam, but as to why we shouldn't lynch Nudude, and I don't mean today, just in general. Basically, all I want to know is: What exactly is your take on Nudude?

[Infinitive]

I'm getting awfully tired of asking this, Liam. Would you please speak up and contribute to the town? You haven't contributed anything except in your own defense in as long as I can remember.

In fact,

Mod, could we please get a prod on Liam? He's really not participating.

In regards to the Nudude situation, I have yet to be convinced by anything he's posted in his defense thusfar. Gorgon's quotes are interesting regarding a possible Liam/DS connection. However, despite my own suspicions regarding Liam, I think he's putting forward an awfully thin case.

And, just as a heads up, I just got transferred to a new department at work; since I do 95% of my playing from work, the training and whatnot has put somewhat of a crimp on my ability to speak up frequently. As such, I really don't have time to go back and dig up stuff from the old case against Liam right now, as much as I'd like to. It'll come, but it might be a week or two before things cool down enough over here that I can quietly devote something like an hour to put quotes and analyses together. OTOH, Liam isn't going anywhere, and he's not contributed anything to the town in ages, so I guess there's worse stuff to sit on for now.

P.S.: Still waiting on the replacement for Charter, whoever (s)he ends up being. Whenever that person gets in and starts posting, I'll probably be ready to drop my vote on Nudude (barring anything exceptional, like a counterclaim).

[Thanatos]

Gorgon, I think, makes a very strong case for the connection between Liam and DS, and I agree that it's worth pursuing. However, call this selfish, but I want to find the RB. We know for a fact that this is not going to be liam. If we can track him down, I can get one more kill before I die, and that kill might be able to end the game.

We have a confirmed, vocal, scum. Let's do a re-read on him.

[Thanatos]

I'll say this as well. The longer this game goes on without a godfather turning up, the more likely Liam is scum. There is probably a godfather in this game, as they're pretty common, and as 12 players become 7 become 3, the likely hood of him being Godfather increases if one is not found. As I said, we should wait on him a bit.

[liamcool]

You'll get a post in 12-24 hours, just about to go out with friends for now, you will get it.