Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[curiouskarmadog]

well, if it doesnt.

unvote, vote Set

(just in case)

[NabakovNabakov]

Sorry guys, busy day yesterday

Vote Count as of Post 1225

Abstract Actuary (1):

Satael

curiouskarmadog(1):

jerubbaal

Satael (3):

curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, Jitsu

Not Voting (2):

Sudo_Nym, Oman

7 alive, 4 will lynch

Sudo_Nym has been prodded.

[Jitsu]

If we are in LYLO and Setael is innocent, the Mafia sure is taking their sweet time...

[curiouskarmadog]

If we are in LYLO and Setael is innocent, the Mafia sure is taking their sweet time...

again, I doubt we are in lylo....but both Oman and Sudo have not posted anywhere since the 15th.

[curiouskarmadog]

that being said, Set has posted today, wonder why she is ignoring this game..or not defending herself.

[Setael]

My theory of 3 scum is either wrong (since if I was right Jerubbaal would've hammered me by now) or I'm wrong about the third scum.

It's up to Oman and Sudo to decide who they believe.

[Jitsu]

Can't... stop... analyzing...

Unless Jerub is asleep at the gallows switch, then Jerub, CKD, and AA are not a scum trio, and at least one of them has to be innocent. If Setael were also innocent, the game should be over by now if we were in LYLO, as Setael said. Therefore, a Setael lynch should be safe: either Setael is scum, we are not in LYLO, or both.

If Setael is scum and we are in LYLO, well, at least we've got our first one.

If we are not in LYLO, there can be at most 2 mafia alive, and by my earlier analysis, that would mean that the last 2 mafia are in the "big four": {Setael, Jerub, CKD, AA}, unless there is something really odd going on (a miller, some other strange role that screws with investigations, cops whose sanity changes, innocent people lying). That would mean that Oman, Sudo, and myself would be mostly (but not completely) cleared as non-mafia. Since both of the claimed cops have guilties, it would also suggest that if there is a Godfather in the game, it is Setael or CKD. If there are only 2 mafia alive, then a town team of 2 sane cops, plus a probable doc or other town-aligned blocking role (no N2 kill) against a 3 person scum team would seem to be horribly unbalanced, even with a bunch of mafia power roles, so it also seems very unlikely we have 2 innocent cops.

@Setael: If you are innocent (especially if you still suspect we could be in LYLO), why aren't you jumping up and down and pleading with the town to stop so you can present a more detailed case for your innocence? You've already claimed, so you have no motivation to lie down and accept your fate quietly at this point.

[Jitsu]

Correction to first paragraph: we could still lose if Seteal is innocent and the third scum is Oman or Sudo, as Setael suggested. I think the rest of the analysis is fine.

[Oman]

AA's plan looks good.

Vote Set

[curiouskarmadog]

that the hammer from Oman (again)..

any last words Set?

[Jitsu]

I just hope she's scum.

If she really is a Cop, I'm going to feel horrible for hounding her most of the game...

[curiouskarmadog]

well, if she is a cop, we have a 4 person mafia team and we just lost. I have seen Set play and she is a strong debater and would have argued us tooth and nail. I have a feeling she is the GF and she is quite embarassed by her claim today, so she is just writing this game off (not really posting). Jerb, it is your ass tomorrow.

[Jitsu]

I also think that she could be GF, and possibly hoped that we would lynch either Jerub or AA today instead. If she is the GF, then she would not be worried about an investigation from you either.

I agree that Setael is a strong debater. I've seen her argue her way out of a hopeless situation before, where she was about to be lynched. And regardless of her role, she argued her way out of a horrible D1 situation in this game to live for three more days. She deserves kudos for that.

Her attitude does sound a lot more like someone who just got caught than someone whose lynch just cost us the game. Jerub seems oddly quiet too, though maybe he's just not around.

I've been on Setael's rear bumper for most of the game now, so I'm just dying to read this death scene (OK, maybe that's a poor choice of words).

Yes, the strategy says that if Setael's guilty, the target tomorrow should be Jerub. If she's innocent, it should be AA. If tomorrow's target is innocent and the game isn't over, the strategy says the final lynch should be CKD.

If any unforeseen conflicts should arise, we should favor the revealed information (death scene/dawn post) over any investigations, because the reveal is almost certainly more reliable.

[Sudo_Nym]

I just wanted to apologize. Between School and Work and the grey screen of death, getting on the site has been difficult.

I do want to say that, however it turns out, Jitsu's plan was well thought out, and I would have supported it if I'd gotten here on time.

[curiouskarmadog]

oh nabnab and your dramatic pause

[Jitsu]

oh nabnab and your dramatic pause

This is more than a dramatic pause, but I can feel for Sudo (and NabNab, if he's in the same boat). I really could not get into the forums last night at all because of the gray screen of death. It's gotten really, really awful in the last few days. Rereading a day or two of game play is nearly impossible unless the site traffic is really low.

Luckily, I think mith and the site admins are planning to move the site to another host where we won't suffer from the problems. They're talking about it in the Site items forum, I think.

[curiouskarmadog]

yeah, this has been a huge pain in most of my games

[NabakovNabakov]

Final Vote Count of Day Four

Abstract Actuary (1):

Satael

curiouskarmadog(1):

jerubbaal

Satael (4):

curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, Jitsu, Oman

Not Voting (1):

Sudo_Nym

Oman casts the final vote as Satael cowers before the jurors. For a time, nothing happens. The players look to the rusted speaker adorning the upper wall, but the characteristic wail of feedback is nowhere to be heard.

The long closed door to Korlash's cell opens and a dead man's phone rings. It rings twice more before anybody thinks to do anything about it and three more times before it is answered.

"He wants to know if we've decided."

The four judges nod.

"He says 'excellent'"

A noose is lowered, and the four executioners make use of it.

"He says: '

Satael - Mafia

Lynched Day Four. Please retire to your cells for Night Four.'"

[NabakovNabakov]

At the virtual daybreak, 5 players emerge from their cells. A process that used to take a quite a while becomes easier with fewer heads and more familiarity. Oman is missing.

"

Oman - Doctor

killed Night-"

The Voice is cut off by a soft moaning coming from Oman's cell. The faint sound of weak flesh on metal can be heard from inside, and then the brief buzz of a shock collar.

"-Four"

"Five alive, three to lynch"

[Jitsu]

Well, so much for limited reveal. In a way, it makes me feel better that it is not. That would suggest to me that Miztef, Mexal, Flay, and Adel are all vanilla townies, and that the number of power roles is reasonably low. That's good -- it sounds even more likely to me that there is only one mafia left. And I think we have a pretty good idea who that is.

Not that it matters much at this point, but, CKD, what've you got for us?

[curiouskarmadog]

the mod has not sent me my results yet..PMing him right now.

[Jitsu]

the mod has not sent me my results yet..PMing him right now.

Good, that means that you didn't investigate Oman. So was it AA or Sudo then?

[curiouskarmadog]

It was one of the two....no need to go into yet (until I hear from the Mod)...all things remaining constant my vote will be on Jerb today..

my concern right now is that (according to the dead lists) we have not hit a GF yet. I was hoping that Set was the GF, but it didnt list him as such. Now, we got Set and Korlash (korlash I did recieve a guilty on). I got another guilty on Jerb...so that is a mafia team of three right now. However, no GF yet. Now maybe they didnt have a GF, but I dont know.

Hopefully after lynching Jerb today we will win...but it might not be(with a 4 person team)...which means the game will come down to good old fashion scum hunting (who do you believe) type situation with who ever is left.

once I hear from the Mod..I will go further into this.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ok the mod got back to me...I got an innocent on AA.

I wondered if Set was using AA as foder or not, guess not.

vote Jerb

.

hopefully this will be the last mafia.

if not, I am dead tonight. and the GF is left.

[curiouskarmadog]

also, if we do have a 4 person mafia team, I doubt that AA would be the GF.