Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Abstract Actuary]

If Cop A is guilty, we lynch the suspect Cop A had a guilty on. If that suspect is guilty, the game should be over (but if not, we can try to guess who the 4th scum is). If that suspect is innocent, we lynch Cop B.

Do you mean we lynch the suspect Cop B had a guilty on?

[Jitsu]

Let me give a more specific example -- it should help.

Let's say we lynch Setael first. If she is guilty, then I think there are one of two cases:

(1) CKD is innocent, so Jerub is guilty
(2) CKD is guilty too (double false claim)

In either of these two cases, we should be able to lynch Jerub and CKD in either order to win (assuming we do not have a 4-person mafia group). It is a little safer to lynch Jerub first, since I think the case that both Setael and CKD are scum is less likely.


If Setael is innocent and we have a 4-person scumgroup, then we've lost, but I think that's highly unlikely. Assuming the game is NOT over at that point, then we should be able to win by lynching CKD and you, in either order.

Of course, I do not believe Setael is innocent.


Keep in mind, you and Setael should know each other's guilt or innocence, but it's likely that Sudo, Oman, and I do not. Also, Jerub and CKD should know each other's innocence, but Sudo, Oman, and I likely do not. I assert that I do not know anyone's guilt or innocence, so I came up with this strategy to give us really good chance of winning regardless of which cop is telling the truth. My strategy has a risk of losing us the game if we have a really funny situation (two innocent cops, secret miller(s), four person mafia team), but excluding those, it should work. I contend in those situations, we are already pretty screwed.

The strategy would also work if we lynched CKD first, and applied the same logic, but since I don't believe Setael, I would prefer to lynch her first.

[curiouskarmadog]

If she really believed early on D3 that the people who

didn't

lynch Korlash (CKD, Oman, and myself) were the most suspicious, why didn't she investigate CKD or me instead of Sudo?

Jitsu, I am sure this is a typo, but I did lynch Korlash..I was the second vote and pushed for his lynch from the beginning of the day because I got a guilty on him.

[jerubbaal]

Agree with Jitsu, we need to lynch one of the cops and go from there. Lynching anyone but a cop simply does not gain us the necessary information. At the moment, I can't see a profitable scenario for a double falseclaim, but I know CKD is lying and I'm only really accepting Set's claim by default. Obviously, I think we should lynch CKD, but I would rather Set be lynched than anyone else other than CKD.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, I am sure this is a typo, but I did lynch Korlash..I was the second vote and pushed for his lynch from the beginning of the day because I got a guilty on him.

Yes, it is a typo, sorry. I stand corrected. That would make Setael's logic more consistent (I'll give her credit for that), but it's still not as good as yours.

[Jitsu]

Agree with Jitsu, we need to lynch one of the cops and go from there. Lynching anyone but a cop simply does not gain us the necessary information. At the moment, I can't see a profitable scenario for a double falseclaim, but I know CKD is lying and I'm only really accepting Set's claim by default. Obviously, I think we should lynch CKD, but I would rather Set be lynched than anyone else other than CKD.

If I'm guessing right that we do not have two innocent cops, there is no miller or other funny business (like innocent cops actually lying), and we only have two scum left to find, the strategy I outlined should work regardless of whether we lynch Seteal first or CKD first. So if people are onboard with this strategy, the best play would be to see which cop people don't believe and lynch that cop first.

I admit I did gambit a bit about suggesting I would vote Setael right away, as I wanted to see if anyone would object (or vote Setael without explaning why) -- either of those could have potientially given me info.

In reality, there really is no hurry, and if the strategy is sound, we could supplement it with traditional scumhunting to make the chances of success even greater, or possibly help cover its weak points. I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks, especially Setael, CKD, and AA, since they are the cornerstones of the plan.

[curiouskarmadog]

Jerb, please dont avoid this question again.

Jerb, I am interested to hear your thoughts on Set’s theory that you are scum with me and AA and I am bussing you....

Jitsu, I didnt know about the idea at first. If there is a 4 person mafia team, your idea will make us lose. A mislynch today will obviously make us lose, and since I have a guilty on Jerb, I am obviously leaning toward Jerb.

However, the fact that I dont understand why a real cop would have claimed for no reason this early, I have found in my meta that Set has a good handle on cop theory, and just feel like she is being dishonest....I do feel like she is scum. So I will be willing to go along with it, but I would prefer a Jerb lynch.

[Abstract Actuary]

If Cop A is guilty, we lynch the suspect Cop A had a guilty on. If that suspect is guilty, the game should be over (but if not, we can try to guess who the 4th scum is). If that suspect is innocent, we lynch Cop B.

Do you mean we lynch the suspect Cop B had a guilty on?

Let me give a more specific example -- it should help.

Let's say we lynch Setael first. If she is guilty, then I think there are one of two cases:

(1) CKD is innocent, so Jerub is guilty
(2) CKD is guilty too (double false claim)

In either of these two cases, we should be able to lynch Jerub and CKD in either order to win (assuming we do not have a 4-person mafia group). It is a little safer to lynch Jerub first, since I think the case that both Setael and CKD are scum is less likely.

I think either I am misunderstanding you or else you didn't understand my question.

I think you mean we lynch Cop A. If we get a guilty we lynch the target of Cop

--B--

.

In your original post you said the target of Cop A, which makes slightly less sense to me.

I am on board with the plan and obviously I prefer a Setael lynch, since I know she is lying.

[Jitsu]

I think you mean we lynch Cop A. If we get a guilty we lynch the target of Cop

--B--

.

Yes, you are right. My apologies. Working out the theory has been somewhat complicated as I've gone through the cases over and over in my mind

If we lynch Cop A and s/he comes up guilty, then we lynch the target of Cop B. The logic is that if Cop A is guilty, it is most likely that Cop B is innocent, and so Cop B's target is most likely guilty. If Cop B's target then comes up innocent, it is most likely that Cop B is the final scum (the assumption here is that a double false claim is more likely than having two innocent cops).

One beauty of the strategy is that it works even if there is a Godfather, because it relies only on lynch results and not investigation results.

Unless we have a miller, there should be at least 2 scum in the set {CKD, Setael, Jerub, and AA}.

If there is a miller, there is a possibility of having only 1 scum in the set (one cop is innocent and targeting the miller, the guilty cop is targeting an innocent).

If we have a 4-person mafia team, it is possible we have 3 scum in the set, but it would mean that both cops are guilty, and one of them has a "guilty" on the third scum. This is an incredibly ingenious plan, and if the scum have pulled this off, they are extremely likely to win.

Thus, if there is no miller (or similar role) and only a 3-person mafia team, there should be EXACTLY 2 scum in that set. If I toss out the possibility that both cops are innocent, I can get them both, assuming I can mislynch once. This is how the strategy works.

I will do some more thinking about the 4 person mafia team theory.

[Abstract Actuary]

If we have a 4-person mafia team, it is possible we have 3 scum in the set, but it would mean that both cops are guilty, and one of them has a "guilty" on the third scum. This is an incredibly ingenious plan, and if the scum have pulled this off, they are extremely likely to win.

I disagree, there could be 3 scum in the set with 1 guilty cop (who has a guilty on his scumbuddy, to save him in the long run) and an innocent cop with a real guilty. I'm not exactly sure why I'm pointing it out, since this theory would require me to be guilty, which I know is not true.

The bottom line is that if we have a two person mafia remaining we basically can't lose. If we have a 3 person mafia remaining it will be hard to win, but I like your plan to try to combat it as I know if there are 3 guilty people in the list then your plan will get them (if we start with a Setael lynch).


I think to proceed we just need to hear from Sudo_Nym and Oman. It should be pretty obvious who the 4 of us in question want to vote for.

[Jitsu]

Good point, AA.

About the 4 person mafia theory:

AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be mafia, or the game would be over now. Therefore, at least one of them is not.

Plus, I know that I am innocent, so AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be innocent.

AA, Jerub, and CKD all have votes on them now (Setael is voting AA, Jerub is voting CKD, and CKD is voting Jerub), and those votes have been there for at least 24 hours.

If we have a 4 person mafia team and AA, Jerub, or CKD are townie, the game should probably be over by now (unless Sudo is the third mafia and hasn't checked the thread -- I doubt this, as if the mafia knew we were in LYLO and they were setting up a fakeclaim, then Sudo should have been put on notice to be ready to pounce if anyone bit on the mafia fakeclaim).

If Sudo posts and the scum don't immediately pile on, the only way there can be a 4 person mafia team is if Setael is innocent. Hmmm.

[Abstract Actuary]

Good point, AA.

About the 4 person mafia theory:

AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be mafia, or the game would be over now. Therefore, at least one of them is not.

Plus, I know that I am innocent, so AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be innocent.

AA, Jerub, and CKD all have votes on them now (Setael is voting AA, Jerub is voting CKD, and CKD is voting Jerub), and those votes have been there for at least 24 hours.

If we have a 4 person mafia team and AA, Jerub, or CKD are townie, the game should probably be over by now (unless Sudo is the third mafia and hasn't checked the thread -- I doubt this, as if the mafia knew we were in LYLO and they were setting up a fakeclaim, then Sudo should have been put on notice to be ready to pounce if anyone bit on the mafia fakeclaim).

If Sudo posts and the scum don't immediately pile on, the only way there can be a 4 person mafia team is if Setael is innocent. Hmmm.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see why there can't be 3 mafia remaining, yet not all included in the big 4. For instance, why can't it be Setael, jerubbaal and Oman? Not that I think this is the case, simply trying to show that not all the possibilities are contained in what you are considering.

Also, I like trying to decipher things based on if people got hammered or not in a LYLO situation, but I don't think you can draw any conclusion from the votes that are on the table. If we do have 3 scum remaining, in order for them to be able to hammer we need to have a vote from 1 innocent person to another innocent person. None of the three votes in question can be of that type, so there is no mafia hammer possible at this point - so no conclusions could be drawn.

[Jitsu]

Also, I like trying to decipher things based on if people got hammered or not in a LYLO situation, but I don't think you can draw any conclusion from the votes that are on the table. If we do have 3 scum remaining, in order for them to be able to hammer we need to have a vote from 1 innocent person to another innocent person. None of the three votes in question can be of that type, so there is no mafia hammer possible at this point - so no conclusions could be drawn.

You're right, I did forget one thing. The voter has to be a townie. If a townie votes for another townie and the game does not end in a reasonable amount of time, we are not in LYLO.

[Jitsu]

As people may have guessed, I have thought a lot about the 3-person mafia team case. I am only starting to think about the 4-person mafia team case. I'm trying to figure out if there is a way to improve our odds in the case of a 4-person mafia team, but that case is a *lot* more complex.

[jerubbaal]

Ok, as long as we assume a 3 person scum team and that both cops are not innocent (both of which are extremely, extremely likely), we should just lynch both cops. If the first one we lynch is innocent, then we're set, lynch the other cop and then the innocent cop's target, that's only one mislynch. If we lynch the guilty cop first, lynch the other cop, confirm that it's not a double falseclaim, and then lynch the innocent cop's target. That's still only one mislynch, and gets us out of the only scenario in which we really lose, the double falseclaim.

This actually gets us out of an alternative losing condition as well, which is that one of us (AA or myself) is a secret miller, which seems much more likely that either a 4 man scum team or two falseclaiming innocent cops. Just to show how we we would lose in this scenario according to Jitsu's plans:

Lynch Set: guilty
Lynch me: innocent
Lynch CKD: innocent

And that's our two mislynches. It would be a strange role for a mini, but if this game is concerned much about reveals and partial information, I could see it fitting with the whole flavor. Anyhow, I think lynching both cops gives us the most information and the best information, so we should start there. I would prefer starting with CKD, but I am willing to start with Set.


@CKD, obviously it's absurd, I'm not scum. Don't know how much more to say there.

Another note, if there were 3 scum left, we would have lost by now. With as many votes as have been flying around, they could have quicklynched someone by now. Seriously, we should discard this possibility.

[Jitsu]

Also, I like trying to decipher things based on if people got hammered or not in a LYLO situation, but I don't think you can draw any conclusion from the votes that are on the table. If we do have 3 scum remaining, in order for them to be able to hammer we need to have a vote from 1 innocent person to another innocent person. None of the three votes in question can be of that type, so there is no mafia hammer possible at this point - so no conclusions could be drawn.

We can't draw any conclusions about them yet, but Sudo's arrival should eliminate certain possibilities if the game does not end in a reasonable time after he posts. Let's suppose we have a 4-person mafia team, so we are in LYLO. If the votes do not change, and the game does not end in a reasonable time after Sudo arrives (thus assuming all the scum have had a chance to pile on), then we should be able to conclude that no innocent is voting for another innocent. Thus:

1. Jerub and CKD could not both be innocent, or the game would be over (therefore, at least one of the two of them would be guilty)

2. Setael and AA could not both be innocent, or the game would be over (therefore, at least one of the two of them would be guilty)

Since these two sets are disjoint (share no common members), this would prove that out of the "big four", there must be at least two scum, possibly three. That would mean that no more than one of the players left over (Sudo, Oman, and I) could be scum. Since I know I am innocent, that would mean that Sudo and Oman could not both be guilty.

The possible sets the three scum would be in are:

Set 1: {Setael, AA}
Set 2: {CKD, Jerub}
Set 3: {anyone}

Thus, there would be a strategy that should improve the town odds in the 4-player case significantly over pure guessing. If we got the first lynch correct, we would have a 50% chance at getting the second one right too, if we lynch someone from the other set. And if we are still around for a third lynch, we would be at endgame with two townies and one scum left (which is the best scenario the town could hope for if we're in LYLO).

I think we could play both the 3-person strategy and the 4-person strategy at once by picking the most likely lying cop to lynch first. If we are right, we follow the 3-person strategy to see what our two choices for the next lynch are, and then pick the one that is in the OTHER set. So if we lynch Setael first and she comes up guilty, then the next two lynch choices would either be AA or CKD, and we would pick CKD since he is in the other group.

If Setael came up innocent, the choices for lynch would be CKD and Jerub, and we could pick either one (as they are in the same group).

[Jitsu]

Jerubbaal is correct about the strategy of lynching both cops when we have a 3 person mafia team (and I did think of it before). The chief drawback to it is that if we have a 4 person mafia team, we are almost guaranteed to lose, since at least one of the cops is very likely innocent.

This is where the tough part comes in. Of all of the monkeywrenches that could wreck the strategies (4 person scum team, 2 innocent cops, secret millers...), the highest percentage play is to choose a strategy that gets us out of the losing conditions that are most likely to occur. I think everyone should weigh in on what those are.

[curiouskarmadog]

Jesus Christ.

I think most likely there is a 3 person mafia team (meaning that there are only two left). I think the smartest thing we can do (if we are going with Jitsu's plan) is lynch either of the cops. (Set or myself). If one comes up innocent, obviously lynch the other cop. However, if one comes up guilty, lynch the other cop's suspect not the other cop.

I can not see (nor have I ever seen) a mafia group double false claim the same role that could be counterclaimed AGAIN. If after Set and I claimed cop, there was a third claim of a cop, then you can bet your ass 2 of the 3 are scum. Given this game is simply doesnt make sense.

if for some god forsaken reason we had a 4 person mafia team (meaning that there are three left) the smartest thing to do is to lynch the cop's suspects for it is quite possble (again I think this is HIGHLY unlikely) that there could be two cops. Also keep in mind, if we have 3 people left, 1 mislynch means we lose.

Personally I feel like there are only two left that gives us two mislynches before we lose. This is why I feel like we should use my plan (jitsu's of sorts). To put it in other words.

Cop A + Cop's Suspect A
Cop B + Cop's Suspect B

Lynch Cop A, if we get a guilty lynch Cop's Suspect B, if you get an innocent then (and only then) should you lynch Cop B.

or this could happen

Lynch Cop A, if you get an innocent, THEN you should lynch Cop A's Suspect or Cop B. Depending on what the situation is, then next lynch after that should be which ever (Cop's A suspect or Cop B) you didnt lynch.

I dont think you should just lynch both cops back to back no matter the alignment discovered.

What is killing me right now, is I got a damn guilty on Jerb. Unless there is some role that effects my sanity for a night, we have scum correctly identified. I know from your point of view Jitsu, you dont know that I if I am lying or not, but you really need to ask yourself this question..

If I was scum, why the hell would I come out and counter claim cop "just to protect AA"? IF you polled the town yesterday most likely you would find me on top of everyone's town list. I would have no reason to come out. If I was scum, I could have joined the BW (on AA) and easily bus another scum to get even more town cred.

If you want to lynch Set that is fine, but when we get a guilty on Set, you should at least lynch my suspect before lynching me.

[Abstract Actuary]

I agree that we should go with Jitsu's original plan with maybe a slight twist (I think this is curiouskarmadog's alternate plan)

Lynch a cop (call him cop A).

If guilty, lynch target B

If innocent, lynch target A followed by cop B.

We are really making this way more complicated than we need to be. We all agree there are almost for sure only 2 more scum, which means we know that they are either Setael+jerubbaal or curiouskarmadog+Abstract Actuary. We need two mislynches to lose and that can't happen with any of these plans.

We are running around in circles. And we are still waiting to here from Oman and Sudo_Nym.

Mod, can we get prods?

[curiouskarmadog]

agreed.

vote Set.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote: Setael

[Jitsu]

@CKD: Were you voting before? I don't think your vote counted if you were.

I've basically concocted the plan and put it into motion, so if we have a 4 person Mafia group, I need to take the blame for the town loss.

Vote: Setael

[curiouskarmadog]

I was voting Jerb.

[Jitsu]

I was voting Jerb.

If that's true, then your recent vote for Set didn't count...

[Jitsu]

I was voting Jerb.

If that's true, then your recent vote for Set didn't count...

In other words, you have to unvote first.