'The Lost Boys' Mafia (Cry Little Sister, it's OVER!)

[Crub]

I honestly don't see it as a big deal. With a RB, early on you've got no idea (I assume) if you actually do anything, right? What motivation is there for you to keep blocking the same person every night?

[Mr. Flay]

Mod: Didn't Battle Mage switch his vote to Mariyta?

Back on page 100/the 6th of December, yes. He's moved it since then...

Nineteenth Vote Count of Day Four:

Yosarian2 - 6 (Mastermind of Sin, cicero, Crub, Setael, Ectomancer, Mariyta)

Mastermind of Sin - 3 (Yosarian2, HackerHuck, Battle Mage)
PookyTheMagicalBear - 1 (Arafax)
Mariyta - 1 (Sir.Laggalot)
Crub - 1 (Dasquian, )

Not Voting - 4 (PookyTheMagicalBear, AniX, -TinVision-, Sudo_Nym)

With sixteen left, nine votes will be needed to lynch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I do not support a vig hit on MoS. This would limit the possibility of our vigs watching each other which i think up until now has probably kept the cult leader from recruiting them, I don't think that testing our town roles in this manner can be productive, I also don't like the two way logic being used here by some players.

The whole, vig him because he's probably the cult leader, but if he's innocent then the cult lost a potential powerful recruit line of logic is kinda bullshit.

I mean I can see you vigging him because you think he's been recruited, but vigging based on future possible recruitment? why not just watch him and find out who comes to recruit him?

I understand that we will need 2 lynches to kill MoS-recruit later in the game but think for a second who we are trying to kill, we are trying to kill the Cult RECRUITER. Once we stop the Recruiter, it's just Cult versus town, cult can't do shit at night. It doesn't matter if it takes us 50 lynches to lynch MoS-Cult Recruit after we kill the cult recruiter because the cult can't do anything to us at that point.

Our priority right now is to find the cult recruiter and nail his hide to the wall, not blow the crap out of potential future recruits.

vote Yosarian

[Ectomancer]

I honestly don't see it as a big deal. With a RB, early on you've got no idea (I assume) if you actually do anything, right? What motivation is there for you to keep blocking the same person every night?

That's the problem here. I wonder if Flay would have such an elaborate mechanism on the offchance that the roleblocker would hit the CR. Let me explain what I mean here. Unfortunately for us, it also muddies the water here, which is unfortunate, but I have to put the thought out there.

The mechanism I'm referring to is the "choice" that Mariyta has recieved. As far as we know, she is unique in recieving this choice. We may see someone else get the same choice, but at this point we don't have more information.
Now that choice took some thought for balance by the mod. So now I wonder what would have activated it? Some possibilities, some have already been mentioned:

1: Happens when the CR targets a Power Role. ~ not a bad overall theory.
2: Happens only to player type *X* ~ simliar to power role idea, but with other filters
3: There are two original cult members and if they don't go together, their recruit gets a choice. Speculates that their role is similiar to the Frog Brothers, except they are scum and one of their abilities is to recruit. Originally proposed by me with BM and HH as the mason cult pair, but could be found in other pairings as well.

Now this last one is the one that muddies the water, as it appends my previous clearing of Crub as the Cult Recruiter, and instead turns it into a frustrating, "either he isn't or he is"...

4: This one needs weighed against the elaborate mechanism vs the relatively small chance that the Roleblocker would target the CR. If the RoleBlocker targets the CR, to protect the Cult, he can't totally prevent the Recruitment, but the target

does

receive a choice. In addition, if they do choose to join the Cult, they get a 1 shot nightkill.

What #4 has to do with us exactly, is that I blocked Crub the night that Mariyta was targeted and received her choice. So now we see what I mean. Crub is

not

the cult recruiter unless #4 is fact, in which case he

is

the cult recruiter.

I don't think it is strong enough to warrant a vote on Crub right now, as nobody else saw the possiblity (that's why I asked and left it out there), but frustratingly, it removes the one person that I thought was solid on my "not the cult recruiter" list...

[Dasquian]

I think they're all plausible theories, Ecto. Unfortunately, as you say, we don't have more information. None of them seem wildly improbable, but I'm leaning towards 1 in the absence of evidence supporting 2-4.

Not to Ecto personally (or at least, Ecto alone), I do think the town puts too much weight in this game on proposing and testing theoretical models for how Flay might have set up this game. When I replaced in, the discussion was on whether we had a standard scum and/or a cult group; yesterday it was on whether there would be a mayor role in the game or not; now it's on the detailed mechanics of CR recruitment when we haven't even snagged a single bad guy.

I suspect some bad guys, of whatever form they take, are more than happy to continue this approach to scum-hunting. In the absence of clear, good plays, we should just do what we always do in a Mafia game - lynch scummy people and see who stinks of duplicity. Vigging MoS is a good idea, especially since we aren't running out of players quickly. Lynching Yos is a sound play, though not one I'm personally in favour of. Lynching nearly any of the vanillas is a good idea too.

[cicero]

]I do not support a vig hit on MoS. This would limit the possibility of our vigs watching each other which i think up until now has probably kept the cult leader from recruiting them, I don't think that testing our town roles in this manner can be productive, I also don't like the two way logic being used here by some players.

Hmm...

What we need to do is to stop this directionless movement and quickly regiment ourselves to move quickly because time moves against us in a game against a cult much faster than in a game against a Mafia by simple mathematics.

What I propose is that we order our vig(should we have one, I suspect we do since it would balance against the Cult's growth power) to fire every night on our orders.

So basically what I would like to have each day are not just one suspect being lynched, but a suspect being lynched combined with a designated vigilante target to give the suspect/vig target ample time to claim some kind of important power role.

Why the change? Maybe because

... a cult plays much differently than a mafia group in the sense that a cult does not look for mislynches so much as it moves to protect one person, the cult leader. Very rarely will cult members distance from the Leader because it is simply too risky. As such I'd imagine the Cult Leader's play would be conservative, careful to move with the tide/staying out of the spotlight.

FOS the pookster again

Pooky, regardless of who the vigs vig. They need to do it together and if we direct them it will limit the influence of the recruiter upon them. In addition, I suspect that post-mariyta (usual caveat about whether mariyta is being truthful) the bad guy(s) will stick to vanilla recruits. Are you really suggesting that the Frog Brothers just watch each other for the rest of the game? Because I thought the idea was that they just act together for the rest of the game.

[Ectomancer]

Your last sentence appears to contradict the views expressed in the 2nd paragraph, as I don't see how nearly any of the vanillas all look like scum?

Daquian, it is my opinion that all of that theorizing and testing has led directly to the understanding we have today. We already have a significant advantage when a cult's best early advantage is secrecy. Without it, we go from a town bent on finding any random scum, to one focused on finding the source of the cult and cutting it off, an essential move for a town win against a cult. Continued theorizing will allow us to navigate potential pratfalls, and narrow down our list of suspects from simply "scummy" to "scummy and fits the profile".

[cicero]

I just wrote a big post replying to MoS and it got me thinking. I deleted it to write this.

OK, here's the problem. We may be being dumbasses here. I may have been the biggest dumbass of all. The way to go in this game depends on whether people really trust Ecto, Mariyta and the Frog brothers. MoS made a good plan that involves not vigging people. Personally I'm starting to re-think the wisdom of some of what I've advocated in this game and I want some comments on this from everyone.

Town may already be close to losing this game. Every mislynch lowers the ratio of town to cult and thereby doubles the effectiveness of each recruitment.

When cult outnumbers town, cult wins.

Have we finally encountered the one game where the correct strategy is to No Lynch until we have actual solid information?

Let's say Yos and Mos are telling the truth and are townies. If we kill them instead of investigating them, we triple the effectiveness of the cult.

Let's say cult started out with 2 members and recruited successfully twice. There are now 4 of them and 12 townies. Lynch and vig and there are 5 of them and 9 townies. Do that again and it becomes 6 of them and 7 townies. And that assumes there aren't three of them.

Are we better off leaving people alive until the investigators come up with a lead? Or are our investigators not to be trusted. Certainly leaving everyone alive leaves more time for investigations to occur.

So the question is - do you trust all investigators. Why or why not? Because at this point, they are shielded from being lynched and if any of them are in the cult they'll win in two to three days.

I'm not advocating this position yet. I'm raising it.

[Ectomancer]

The question Cicero, is whether we have investigators that can find the CR or not. I'm not an investigator, so clearly I can't. It was likely that Mariyta can get a guilty on a recruit, but not certain whether a CR would come up guilty. In addition, we dont know whether her "suffering" affects her investigative ability. That leaves our Frog Brothers who can track. Our hope there is they catch someone out who shouldn't be out.

It means our investigations are gimped at best. I don't know if I would advocate a No Lynch to rely on them, though it is a good thought, and does bring up the downfall of both lynching and vigging wrong. Perhaps a more sensible approach would be to lynch and allow the Frog Brothers to do their own thing.

[Dasquian]

Your last sentence appears to contradict the views expressed in the 2nd paragraph, as I don't see how nearly any of the vanillas all look like scum?

I mean that nearly all the vanillas are reasonable lynches, assuming a better-than-random case. Obviously I'm not saying they (or indeed, we) are all scum!

Daquian, it is my opinion that all of that theorizing and testing has led directly to the understanding we have today.

Our understanding today comes from:

1) Lynching The Fonz and finding he was David, an innocent.
2) Lynching dybeck and finding he was a beach bum townie.
3) Lynching Peers and finding he was who he said he was, the mayor.
4) Doing a mass-claim.
5) Mariyta's claim of having been bitten and the associated effects.
6) The lack of any night deaths.

Speculation is great and all, but it's the lynches that gave us hard information and the role-claiming that gave us some context. All I'm saying is that our lynches going forward should be based on who is appreciably scummy, not who might be scum in one of many plausible setups extrapolated from what we currently have. Doubting the likelihood of a role is a valid reason for a vote, but

later

, when we actually feel reasonably confident about anything other than the existence of a cult of some form.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

no

that's not what im saying at all

im saying they should have a percentage chance of watching each other and a percentage chance of vigging someone. I'm saying they should definitely not commit to one action beforehand. and I am saying that MoS is a bad vig choice.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and when i wrote that earlier post, I had no idea that our vigilantes would end up exposed and also have the ability to watch.

Having 2 exposed watcher-mason-vigilantes is pretty damn different from when we had a possible vigilante in the shadows completely unexposed.

The change in my position is obvious to take note of the change in the game state.

You're better than that Cicero.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and I think no lynch is a dreadful idea for the usual reasons. It may be a cult game, but our confused attempts at getting control of the game now via our lynches is still going to be useful down the line.

I don't trust all investigators, particularly not Mariyta. Not that she's done anything to seriously lose my trust recently, but the fact she got bitten and is dealing with that means she may well either choose to switch or be forcibly recruited.

As for how much time we have to play with... I don't know. I'm only trusting that Flay will have balanced this game to mean we have the standard 4-6 days of getting stuff wrong before the scum win. If we lose with today or tomorrow's lynch I will wonder how we were ever supposed to be able to win, put it that way.

[cicero]

Fair enough Dasq. Combined with Ecto pointing out how gimped the investigations are, I withdraw the idea.

Pooky. I knew exactly what I was glossing over. Obviously the vigs are exposed. But you glossed over the fact that whatever they do, if they do it in concert they are useful. Also that after mariyta the cult has an incentive to avoid power roles. The frogs should always work in concert, whatever they do. Then if they come up with a different result each we have a probable recruit. Doesnt matter if they are a directed vig or not. Certainly I dont want to direct their watching and tracking for obvious reasons.

And Yosarian is Yosarian. He makes children wet their bed at night.

You're better than that. Why are you voting Yos? You've never been willing to answer that. I know why I am. Why are you?

Why is MoS a bad vig target? I thought he was on your list of suspects because

MoS is one of those minimal contribution tag-alongs that can really be anything.

. So what makes you think he's a bad choice now?

[Ectomancer]

Your last sentence appears to contradict the views expressed in the 2nd paragraph, as I don't see how nearly any of the vanillas all look like scum?

I mean that nearly all the vanillas are reasonable lynches, assuming a better-than-random case. Obviously I'm not saying they (or indeed, we) are all scum!

Daquian, it is my opinion that all of that theorizing and testing has led directly to the understanding we have today.

Our understanding today comes from:

1) Lynching The Fonz and finding he was David, an innocent.
2) Lynching dybeck and finding he was a beach bum townie.
3) Lynching Peers and finding he was who he said he was, the mayor.
4) Doing a mass-claim.
5) Mariyta's claim of having been bitten and the associated effects.
6) The lack of any night deaths.

Speculation is great and all, but it's the lynches that gave us hard information and the role-claiming that gave us some context. All I'm saying is that our lynches going forward should be based on who is appreciably scummy, not who might be scum in one of many plausible setups extrapolated from what we currently have. Doubting the likelihood of a role is a valid reason for a vote, but

later

, when we actually feel reasonably confident about anything other than the existence of a cult of some form.

Not to belabor the point with you, because it isn't all that important anyhow, but those lynches proceeded as a direct result of theories and speculation. We were testing specific aspects of the setup, probing it logically, and we knew exactly what information we could take from each lynch as a result. If you just haphazardly lynch random people, then you don't always come away with concrete information if they are town.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Well, MOS, I think it would be better for whoever we would lynch today (or vig tonight) to otherwise be forced (if possible) to be the hammer on lynching the bomb claim. I'm not sure if I believe the bomb claim, that's a really easy claim for scum to make, and even if it is true it's also a likely and quite dangerous target for cult recruitment. We're going to have to test it eventually, I think, and we might as well do that using someone we would otherwise lynch so we don't waste a lynch or get a known pro-town player killed off in the process.

Are you really saying that you would refuse to do that, MOS, even it you not doing it just meant you would be vigged tonight? That's what it sounds like in your last post, and that dosn't sound like a very pro-town attitude to me.

No, I'm not. If it came down to it, I would hammer the bomb if the town suspected me enough to make me do it. That doesn't mean I have to like it, especially when there are better plans of action.

I think they're all plausible theories, Ecto. Unfortunately, as you say, we don't have more information. None of them seem wildly improbable, but I'm leaning towards 1 in the absence of evidence supporting 2-4.

Not to Ecto personally (or at least, Ecto alone), I do think the town puts too much weight in this game on proposing and testing theoretical models for how Flay might have set up this game. When I replaced in, the discussion was on whether we had a standard scum and/or a cult group; yesterday it was on whether there would be a mayor role in the game or not; now it's on the detailed mechanics of CR recruitment when we haven't even snagged a single bad guy.

Speculation is great and all, but it's the lynches that gave us hard information and the role-claiming that gave us some context. All I'm saying is that our lynches going forward should be based on who is appreciably scummy, not who might be scum in one of many plausible setups extrapolated from what we currently have. Doubting the likelihood of a role is a valid reason for a vote, but

later

, when we actually feel reasonably confident about anything other than the existence of a cult of some form.

Then why is your entire case against me based on the fact that you "doubt the likelihood of my role", and that you are betting my mechanics indicate cult recruiter? Your entire attack on me is based on setup speculation, but you're telling other people that we need to stick to real suspicion and not based our cases on speculation? Bullshit.

FoS: Dasquian

Cicero, I don't think No Lynch is viable in this case. The reason I'm advocating not vigging is because our vigs can be used to investigate people without having to kill them. This lowers the attrition rate and allows the town a better chance of winning. We don't have a way to avoid lynching and still find out someone's alignment. We need to lynch to gain information, but we can use our vigs more efficiently if they use other abilities instead of killing. If they either track possible CRs or watch possible recruits (less preferrable, imo), they can gain information without having to kill more protown people while they search for scum.

[cicero]

I agree that vigging needs to be done on a case by case basis but I'm comfortable doing it with you Mos. Unlike others my case isn't just one thing. It is:

I'm still comfortable removing you from the game through vigging because, unlike what you've suggested, I'm not basing it solely on his day one lynch ability.

MoS here's my case:

1. One day lynch immunity would provide a buffer for the CR
2. You have exactly the safe claim that I thought the CR would have. A supporting character good guy.
3. As Pooky says you are one of those tag alongs that could be anything. Cult leaders tend to want to tag along.
4. Your behavior at the end of day 2 with the ill timed battle-mage wagon.
5. Your claim of flavor - mentioning max and then backpedaling - is highly suspect to me:

This doesn't mean you are absolutely the bad guy, but you've been on my shortlist for a while. Your claim just reinforced my pre-existing suspicions. So while I dont think we should vig every night I do think you should be on the short list for a "lynch". I'd be open to a discussion of who is scummier Yos or Mos and deciding whether we should either lynch him or vig you or whether we should do both. This would force people to make some more concrete cases. Remember, if Yos comes up "cult recruiter" that changes everything. So why does it seem like this whole discussion is already predicated on Yos being a mislynch? Do you know something I don't know?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Oh really? I thought the Frog Brothers could talk to each other before making their nighttime decisions.

I do need a clarification on this.

My point is that our Watcher-Vigs are working at their best when

The Cult Leader does not know what they are going to do

We need the threat of possibly being caught by a watcher to dissuade the Cult Leader from taking our vigilantes away from us.

but lynching MOS really looks like a win-win to me; either he's a lying cult recruiter and lynching him is awesome, or he's telling the truth but was recruited in which case lynching him is at least useful in that it makes it easier to kill him later, or he's telling the truth and is pro-town in which case lynching him is useful in the sense that at least we know he's pro-town. Sounds like a win-acceptable-acceptable situation to

He tries to get pressure off him by setting up something that looks like win-acceptable-acceptable to us, except if MoS is protown, it is not acceptable to waste a lynch on him. We have only so many lynches before the Cult has a majority, I don't want to waste one on telling us what alignment MoS was yesterday, I want to lynch the damn CL and stop the bleeding.

He was on my list of suspects prior to the claim, now that I've had time to properly digest his claim and the responses afterwards, I've put MoS in my column of solidly pro-town players.

Frankly speaking, MoS-Cult Recruiter does not have the balls to claim something like this, I've played enough games with MoS to know what he will claim and what he won't claim, this is one of those things that I believe with almost absolutely certainty that MoS-Cult Recruiter would not have the balls to claim. This is just one of those things you don't do as a Cult Recruiter.

But wait you say, what about the fact that a cult leader would possibly have lynch protection?

This is the really easy part, you would have to be mindboggling stupid to claim lynch immune or lynched protected as a lynched protected CL because we have been speculating for a while about how to balance a game with only one cult in it. Lynch protection would be a pretty good way to balance it, combine that with the fact that we have vigilantes on standby and you can see that the last thing a CL with lynch protection would claim in a mass claim is a townie with lynch protection.

That combined with how fast people were to jump to calling for an MoS vig at night makes me feel highly confident that they are trying to set up a nightkill of MoS followed up by our vigilantes getting infected and flipped to the dark side.

[cicero]

Oh really? I thought the Frog Brothers could talk to each other before making their nighttime decisions.

I do need a clarification on this.

I think this is sarcastic but can't understand the underlying point.

My point is that our Watcher-Vigs are working at their best when

The Cult Leader does not know what they are going to do

a) this plan doesnt come into effect if Yos is the correct play.

b) If you believe Mariyta the likelihood is that they will have a choice of whether to join or not.

c) the recruiter can only recruit one of them at a time and they still need to work together to get the right result and therefore would have to report truthfully unless both got recruited and accepted it. Seems like a big risk to me for the CR. Unless you have another theory about when people get to make a choice. Remember they need to kill to convert. If you dont believe this to be true you should advocate lynching Mariyta right this second.

He (MoS) was on my list of suspects prior to the claim, now that I've had time to properly digest his claim and the responses afterwards, I've put MoS in my column of solidly pro-town players.

Frankly speaking, MoS-Cult Recruiter does not have the balls to claim something like this, I've played enough games with MoS to know what he will claim and what he won't claim, this is one of those things that I believe with almost absolutely certainty that MoS-Cult Recruiter would not have the balls to claim. This is just one of those things you don't do as a Cult Recruiter.

Which is great meta-info on MoS if I thought I could trust you. I mean you are in your chair and you would know your alignment. I know no such thing. You look like you are swooping in to protect the recruiter to me right now.

But wait you say, what about the fact that a cult leader would possibly have lynch protection?

This is the really easy part, you would have to be mindboggling stupid to claim lynch immune or lynched protected as a lynched protected CL because we have been speculating for a while about how to balance a game with only one cult in it. Lynch protection would be a pretty good way to balance it, combine that with the fact that we have vigilantes on standby and you can see that the last thing a CL with lynch protection would claim in a mass claim is a townie with lynch protection.

Riiiight...He'd have to be mindbogglingly stupid because then the sensible thing to do would be to kill him. Therefore we shouldn't do the sensible thing and kill him? This is the very definition of WIFOM. A lot of your arguments have been WIFOMy this game. And inconsistent. (you know like advocating vig all lurkers whilst lurking).

That combined with how fast people were to jump to calling for an MoS vig at night makes me feel highly confident that they are trying to set up a nightkill of MoS followed up by our vigilantes getting infected and flipped to the dark side.

What people? You have narrowed the cult down to people who support the vigging of MoS. Want to name names? There's me who I know to be town and who else? The trouble is near as I can tell the frog brothers are a sub-optimal risk for the cult for the reasons I outlined above. When they tried to turn the cop it blew up in their faces.

Whch you are aware of yet are ignoring. Do you really think he/they'll risk that again instead of quietly picking off vanilla? Do you think the cult knows who it can and cannot recruit safely? Doesnt the power-role theory make the most sense given past cults you've dealt with? Or do you not believe Mariyta? Why do you think Mariyta got a choice or is she lying?

[Yosarian2]

Our priority right now is to find the cult recruiter and nail his hide to the wall, not blow the crap out of potential future recruits.

vote Yosarian

You going to give any reasoning for why you supposedly think I'm the cult recruiter, or were you just planning on making a stratagy-related post and then follow it up by quietly jumping onto a bad bandwagon of a townie with no explinations?

[Dasquian]

Not to belabor the point with you, because it isn't all that important anyhow, but those lynches proceeded as a direct result of theories and speculation. We were testing specific aspects of the setup, probing it logically, and we knew exactly what information we could take from each lynch as a result.

Sure - I'm not denying that, you're absolutely right. David's lynch was down to distrust of the Lost Boy claim, and lynching him proved that Lost Boys could be townies. dybeck's lynch - well, in all honesty, I can't remember, but it at least proved beach bums were in the game too (not that that wasn't already mostly a given). Peers' lynch was down to a claim which wasn't a generic townie or named character from the film. We proved there that such roles can exist.

I'm not going to criticise that they were all townies and we got it wrong (although, obviously that's bad). My point here is that the information we took from the lynches proved only as much as the roles themselves told us, and actually we probably would've been better just pure scum-hunting.

I'm not explaining this very well. I basically mean: we should point accusatory fingers, not hypothesise situations which we then disprove. By doing everything through game theory, we have an extra smoke screen in front of who's pulling the strings when it comes to getting townies lynched, and that's not helpful in the long run.

Then why is your entire case against me based on the fact that you "doubt the likelihood of my role", and that you are betting my mechanics indicate cult recruiter? Your entire attack on me is based on setup speculation, but you're telling other people that we need to stick to real suspicion and not based our cases on speculation?

My suspicion on you is based on your role claim and presentation alone. I would find you suspicious even if we had a standard killing-mafia game.

Bottom line is that I just don't like the way your role flavour is supposed to justify your ability. It seems like you've stretched a useful mechanic which deters a lynch to fit your real, probably anti-town, role. The flavour elements seemed clunky and awkward. I also think that in the climate of the game where the town is loathe to waste lynches due to

town assumption of the presence of a cult

makes your claim more appealing as scum.

Note that this doesn't depend on a cult setup to be valid. It's all based on what you've said and the situation in which you've said it. If pushed, yes, I reckon you're a good CR candidate. I actually don't care though, because primarily you're just the scummiest person around. (See previous rant about getting annoyed about being told to "find the cult recruiter" when actually we should be getting taking any scum lynch we can get).

[Yosarian2]

That's the problem here. I wonder if Flay would have such an elaborate mechanism on the offchance that the roleblocker would hit the CR. Let me explain what I mean here. Unfortunately for us, it also muddies the water here, which is unfortunate, but I have to put the thought out there.

The mechanism I'm referring to is the "choice" that Mariyta has recieved. As far as we know, she is unique in recieving this choice. We may see someone else get the same choice, but at this point we don't have more information.
Now that choice took some thought for balance by the mod. So now I wonder what would have activated it? Some possibilities, some have already been mentioned:

1: Happens when the CR targets a Power Role. ~ not a bad overall theory.
2: Happens only to player type *X* ~ simliar to power role idea, but with other filters
3: There are two original cult members and if they don't go together, their recruit gets a choice. Speculates that their role is similiar to the Frog Brothers, except they are scum and one of their abilities is to recruit. Originally proposed by me with BM and HH as the mason cult pair, but could be found in other pairings as well.

Now this last one is the one that muddies the water, as it appends my previous clearing of Crub as the Cult Recruiter, and instead turns it into a frustrating, "either he isn't or he is"...

4: This one needs weighed against the elaborate mechanism vs the relatively small chance that the Roleblocker would target the CR. If the RoleBlocker targets the CR, to protect the Cult, he can't totally prevent the Recruitment, but the target

does

receive a choice. In addition, if they do choose to join the Cult, they get a 1 shot nightkill.

Or #5, the most obveous possiblity:

Other people have been given that same choice, but rather then either claim or join the cult (and possibly increase their chances of getting lynched), they've decided to sit on the sidelines and wait until they see which side looks like they're going to win and choose a side then. That's an especally nasty possibility, since the cult recruiter can apparently talk to them and then can talk to him (at least, according to Maryta, she could indireclty message the CR and he could indirectly message her), so they could all be in communication with each other, and all be ready to jump together when they get a critical number, and kill off a large part of the town and all join the cult at once for an instant win (since whenver one joins the cult, they kill a townie at the same time).

That's really what I'm worried about, especally since we know that the cult recruiter and semi-recruited people can plot together, and since there wouldn't really be any risk to them in doing that, since they can still win with the town if we manage to nail the CR before they get to that critical number.

By my count, the critical number is about a third of the town; for example, if there were 15 people and 5 cult recruits, they could all join at once and kill off 5 good guys in the process and win. That means that we could be heading uncomfortably close to lynch or lose any time now, although Marytia's apparent loyalty to the town might buy us another day (so long as she dosn't turn on us as well).

I do understand your point on Crub, but eh, I don't think I've really seen a role before where a rolebloceker would weaken his ability without actually roleblocking it; I've seen a few roles that were role-blocker immune, but I've never seen one that was semi-roleblocker immune. That's not to say it's impossible, this game is so different from anything I've seen that I'm not ruling anything out, but I'm not sure it's a very strong possibility.

[Arafax]

Pookys vote doesn't make my feeling of his scumminess any better...Keeping my vote there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

See when Yos says something like that, I think it's not only idle speculation but it's got a nice underlining of "yo guys, if we all killl tommorrow night, we will WTFPWN the town, LETS DO IT Cmon guys easy win"

[Yosarian2]

See when Yos says something like that, I think it's not only idle speculation but it's got a nice underlining of "yo guys, if we all killl tommorrow night, we will WTFPWN the town, LETS DO IT Cmon guys easy win"

That's silly. The cult recrutiter can talk to the cult members at night; if I was the cult recruiter, like you are accusing me of being, I could just tell everyone that at night. For that matter, if I was the cult recruiter, I would NOT want half-recruited on-the-fense cult memebers figuring out who I was, because then the right move would be for them to sell me out and win with the town.

Oh, I should probably respond to your other argument:

but lynching MOS really looks like a win-win to me; either he's a lying cult recruiter and lynching him is awesome, or he's telling the truth but was recruited in which case lynching him is at least useful in that it makes it easier to kill him later, or he's telling the truth and is pro-town in which case lynching him is useful in the sense that at least we know he's pro-town. Sounds like a win-acceptable-acceptable situation to

He tries to get pressure off him by setting up something that looks like win-acceptable-acceptable to us, except if MoS is protown, it is not acceptable to waste a lynch on him. We have only so many lynches before the Cult has a majority, I don't want to waste one on telling us what alignment MoS was yesterday, I want to lynch the damn CL and stop the bleeding.

You're missing the context here, though. The context is that:

A. I was already suspicious of MOS, and had already voted him, for reasons completly unrelated to his claim; my vote and my suspicions were actually on him long before his claim.

B. I had already stated that I thought that if MOS is the cult recruiter, that he was probably lying about his unlynchable role, and that lynching him would kill the cult recruiter.

So, yeah. I made the argument that lynching him would never really reach a bad result, per se; that either he's a cult recruiter and lynching him will probably kill him, or he's a cult recruit and lynching him now will at least make it easier for us to lynch him later; or he's town, and lynching him will at least give us information. However, while I didn't specifically state it there, you need to understand that I made that argument thinking that MOS as a cult recruiter was also a fairly likely possibility. The fact that in the worst case scenerio (we lynch MOS and he's town) wouldn't be as bad for us as lynching someone else who was town is really just a side benifit.