Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]


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Post Post #2000 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:21 pm

Post by outoforder »

In post 623, havingfitz wrote:As inferred earlier....I could get behind a Creature wagon. I suspect he and hapa independently of each other but the bussing theory isn't bad. I'm mostly on hapa as it looks to have better traction. If I had to choose I think hapa would be better to keep around as he would be more productive if town or more likely to give reason to suspect if scum.

Not interested in the Kop or KidAmn wagons.
A KidAmn vote somewhere would be nice.
More Moogin would be nice.
In post 625, havingfitz wrote:
In post 624, cassielle wrote:why do you think that hapa is more likely to contribute or self-incriminate?

creature is amazing at scumhunting d2 onward as town -- id sheep town!Creature d2 unquestioningly in fact, and i just dont do that
so why do you think hapa is the better choice here?

i know why /i/ do and that is irrelevant, i want to know why you do
Based on what I have seen so far in this game. hapa actually appears to be making an effort with his posts wrt convincing others of his opinion (for what they are worth). And posting more content if he is scum (as I suspect) will eventually catch up to him. Creature based on what I have seen is all over the place and doesn't interact well with others (ex. question responses). I see effort from hapa but not Creature.

And as far as Creature's D2+ prowess is concerned...my limited experience with him is town!him mislynching town!me for a scum win. We have another game where he was town and I was scum but I don't recall his play there.

I have no experience iirc with hapa
In post 769, havingfitz wrote:UNVOTE: while v/LA

I feel 5 or 6 pages behind just from this morning and I see hapa posted a shitload. I want to catch up and not leave my vote on him on the weekend so I can catch up on his content and others.
I dug this up either way.
Here. It even started before unvoting. I found something else too. I will follow it up when i get home.
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Post Post #2001 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:41 pm

Post by outoforder »

Tbh i haven't focused much on fitz' "latest" content. This would be around when he started calling me mafia. That's because at that time i was fairly certain he is scum for what i have outlined before. On important game happenings i rely mostly on my memory, and yes, my memory doesn't usually let me down, like here. I already talked about his posts 623 and 625 a couple of posts ago. There is also one interesting thing in post 625. This sentence:
"And (hapa) posting more content if he is scum (as I suspect) will eventually catch up to him."


Now this here basically proves that either:
- Fitz doesn't have a strong scumread on Hapa (possible mafia motivation -> not hard bussing)
- If Fitz says this and has a strong scumread on hapa, he must be mafia, based on the fact that if you are quite certain someone is scum, you don't want "more content" from them, you just lynch the shit out of them. That is what townies do

Moving further. This is what happens next.
In post 908 Fitz claims the following:
A townread on Rels, and that he has had the townread earlier on (which again kinda debunks the "if he is scum he would have voted for Rels" theory) since he cannot possibly just change his mind (there was really no case on Rels, i don't even remember why there were people voting for him lol) there. Because it would give him away if he is mafia if there is Hapa flip at some point. At this point his read list says the following:
Town leans: Doom, Hawk, BlackVoid, KidAdm + Rels and Kop (though I think an ISO is in order for them.)
TBD: Aubrey
Suspects: Creature, hapa, cassie, OoO.
Now there are a couple of things to note. First there are 4 scumreads in a game where there is 3 mafia. This in itself isn't suspicious, but the fact that after this he never goes anywhere in figuring out where he is wrong (he has to be wrong on at least one person here), except for.... In post 1146 he goes (when you have made a case on Aubrey) like... i don't even know. Look at the post. Aubrey is his null read but he is okay with lynching Aubrey (when he has already 4!!!! other scumreads) and look at reasoning. "I don't really have a scumread on Aubrey but i haven't considered him a possible wagon BECAUSE (whatever reasons)...." Why would you consider someone a lynch wagon if you don't have a scumread on them?!?!? As town you don't lynch null reads, ESPECIALLY when your scum jar is already overflowing (and Hapa IS a viable wagon here). That doesn't make any sense to me. The whole thing, how fitz landed on Aubrey doesn't make any sense regardless of whatever Hapa's alignment is/was/would have been. Even if Hapa had been town this is super inconsistent.

Then the wagon on Hawk happens. And post 1280 comes up. Read the post, very carefully. Here is what i gather:
- After unvoting Hapa:
- 4 scumreads, happy to vote for them all except for Cass for very unknown reasons
- Apparently not happy to revote Hapa who is suspicious
- Happy to vote for Aubrey (who isn't even a scumread) basically because "Aubrey can be actually lynched"
- Not happy to vote for Hawk (doesn't even comment on the case on him, which is what a townie SHOULD do in case they think they are right on their read). Instead of debunking the case or presenting reasons why he even thinks Hawk is town he discredits the dude who made the case because they are "derailing". Which also doesn't make much sense (i mean like, i felt like he was angry(?) for some reason), but see this - In post 1146 he is perfectly happy with discussing lynches when there is not much time left. Here:
We essentially have this entire day (EST at least) to vote and I'm not sure a move to someone else is doable. And the other alternatives are all players I'm not interested in lynching today (Rels.............KidAdm/Kop).
Here considering other wagons is perfectly fine. Suddenly when it's Hawk, it's not fine anymore. Note: I am not saying he isn't being logical as he townread Hawk, i am saying he isn't being logical because he SHOULD have treated the Aubrey wagon the same way he treated the Hawk one since in his mind he should have at least 3 other scumreads (where Hapa is a viable wagon FOR CERTAIN).
- Ends up voting Kop!!!! He is townreading Kop ffs. Here's what he says:
Really annoyed at Kop's lat post and he has garnered a fair amount of suspicion....
"I got annoyed" != "he is mafia", the other reason is "he can be lynched".

So basically, Fitz was, on D1 willing to lynch a
null read
and a
townread
who have both flipped town basically because they "could be lynched", not willing to lynch a
townread
and at least in my opinion veeeery hesitant to lynch or even try to re-wagon a
scumread
who could also be lynched, both of who have flipped mafia. Go figure.

That's my re-read on Fitz D1. On D2 he didn't do shit. He just delayed delayed delayed and is still delaying. His reads are static which doesn't make much sense since when your townread flips mafia you MUST at least CONSIDER you could be wrong on something, because that's what townies do. And please noone give me the bs "well you didn't reconsider either since you're still calling fitz mafia" because yes i fucking did, here is the post after reconsideration. He has shown none, he's had days.

And this, aside from my earlier case (which he btw again fails to admit exists even after having answered it roflmao) is why i think he is mafia.

Now what did you want to ask / discuss BV?
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Post Post #2002 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:44 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Reading through D2, I'm feeling more confident that Rels is town. He was actually the first one who brought up Hawk/Hap interactions looking scummy. I touch on them before that but I haven't yet voted Hap at that point. I'll post updated thoughts once I finish.

@Outoforder - are you here? I need to log off for a bit but I'll be back in around 20-30 minutes. Feel free to info-dump and I'll engage with your content when I get back.

Pedit: okay, I'll read that when I get back in half an hour.
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Post Post #2003 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:45 pm

Post by outoforder »

Yeah i am here when you are back.
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Post Post #2004 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:08 pm

Post by outoforder »

Like ugh... i read my own post and i don't really know how to be concise. :(
Summed up from Fitz' D1; If someone has 4 scumreads, doesn't do anything about it like fucking ever (doesn't try to solve the game further) and in the end is okay with 5th and 6th person lynched it just screaams red in my head.
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Post Post #2005 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:14 pm

Post by outoforder »

And yeah Rels is town for two simple reasons:
- Pushing mafia!Hapa throughout all game
- Kop NK

I can elaborate more on the NK after i have heard back from momo if needed. Rels should btw know i am town at this point. ^^

That's a concise read you can trust on. If i am town i am 99% sure of it and even if i was mafia that would be the truth.
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Post Post #2006 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:27 pm

Post by outoforder »

Knowing Hapa flip, if Rels was mafia he would have taken the Fitz route at last on D2. (that's where i btw went wrong on hapa on D1 - he probably would have too in case he was town, since i tend to have a good D1 - the worst case scenario for mafia!hapa is that i am more of a suspect after, he can just say he sheeped me and there is no downside for him. I was a fucking dumbass to not realize that's what he SHOULD have done as town and instead blamed Rels for the same thing).

I will say one thing though, i have huge problems in games where the scumteam plays in a way i consider to be terrible scumplay. I think about strategy, i think about strategy what i would think would be good and i normally work with that. D1's are where i am good at. And LYLO's. Because in LYLO's there is no more bullshit, no more bussing, just plain logic. I focused on too much fucking shit early on in this game which made me incapable of sticking with the early good read on Hapa. :( Well the 5 day vacation didn't help much either, but yeah... there is that.

I literally don't think anyone can be mafia except for fitz. If he would flip town i am completely lost. If i had to do something after that, i would lynch (in this order):
momo - creature - rels - BV - cassielle/KidAmn
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Post Post #2007 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:29 pm

Post by outoforder »

EBWOP:
Knowing Hapa flip, if Rels was mafia he would have taken the Fitz route at last on D2. (that's where i btw went wrong on hapa on D1 - he probably would have too in case he was town, since i tend to have a good D1 - the worst case scenario for mafia!hapa is that i am more of a suspect after, he can just say he sheeped me and there is no downside for him. I was a fucking dumbass to not realize that's what he SHOULD have done as town and instead blamed Rels for the same thing).
this is assuming fitz was town.
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Post Post #2008 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:35 pm

Post by outoforder »

It's been 50 minutes. :(
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Post Post #2009 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:40 pm

Post by KidAmn »

In post 1999, BlackVoid wrote:Momo is replacing into more games while ignoring this one. I'm not even sure what to do at this point with regard to that slot. This is frustrating.
Lynch it.

No longer V/LA.
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Post Post #2010 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:08 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Okay I'm back. Took longer than expected.

@outoforder, you made some good points on Fitz. I do want him to explain why he moved to Kop as opposed to moving back to Hap when his reads dictated that Hap should be his preferred choice. In fact, there were more votes on Hap than Kop at the time he voted.

There are several other things I'm hung up on though: Fitz suspects Hap primarily because you and Rels suspected him and he thought the meta should be taken into account. I don't get why he would do this if it was meta on a buddy. He'd be giving you and Rels cred for the Hap flip when he could have taken it for himself. But I can see a town-Fitz thinking that you and Rels being confident on Hap-scum might have some validity and factoring that into his read. I also think the questions he asked like whether you or Rels ever mislynched Hap were odd things to ask a buddy. Hap's response (that you haven't) lends even more credibility to Hap being scum and it was a question Fitz could have asked Hap in the scum thread and then simply refrained from asking in public.

Fitz voted Hap with over a week left during D1, that's true. But it was still a building wagon and it seemed like there was a decent chance that Hap would get lynched. He passed up several opportunities to lynch town in order to put down that vote.

I'm also curious about why Hap would bus Hawk when he did (the reason you were so convinced he was town D2) instead of either not showing up or just pushing Kop hard and then using Hawk to nightkill me. At the time I was pushing hard on a Hawk/Fitz/Rels team so one explanation I could think of was that he wanted to bus so he could get those mislynches next. If he was partnered with Fitz, it seems very uncoordinated of them for Fitz to defend Hawk and Hap to bus although I could see the two of you (outoforder and Hap) deciding that a last minute bus of Hawk would get you two enough towncred to go to endgame which fits your D2 behavior of insisting that Hap's vote meant he was town and then pushing Fitz and Rels. If you could get those mislynches and nightkill me and Creature, that would get you to mylo so I see a potential winning gameplan there. I'm not sure what Hap and Fitz would have been planning.
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Post Post #2011 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:23 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 2006, outoforder wrote:I literally don't think anyone can be mafia except for fitz. If he would flip town i am completely lost. If i had to do something after that, i would lynch (in this order):
momo - creature - rels - BV - cassielle/KidAmn
Why are Creature and Cassielle where they are? I'd interchange them. The hard townread on Cassielle is pretty weird actually.
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Post Post #2012 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:27 pm

Post by outoforder »

I don't know, for the last paragraph. When something i consider dumb scumplay happens (here Hapa flip), i throw all association out of the window if there is ANY chance it's not legit town vs scum (see for example KidAmn vs Hapa on D1 which i consider 100% legit Town vs Mafia).

For this:
I don't get why he would do this if it was meta on a buddy. He'd be giving you and Rels cred for the Hap flip when he could have taken it for himself.
I believe he - as mafia - didn't have an intention to lynch, BUT if the lynch occurs (if me and Rels keep on pushing that) he can at least not look bad. I mean look at the situation now, people are calling him town for making a case on Hapa and "pushing it". If he is mafia he has already achieved what was the best he can get (assuming he assumes Hapa is a legit lynch on D1 if me and Rels continue pushing it at the time he voted).
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Post Post #2013 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:28 pm

Post by outoforder »

Cassielle is where she is because i find it impossible she will yell all the worlds they are idiots and mafia because they lynched Hawk AFTER Hawk already was lynched. Like... That is so unreal.... That never comes from another mafia rofl.
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Post Post #2014 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:30 pm

Post by outoforder »

I don't get why he would do this if it was meta on a buddy. He'd be giving you and Rels cred for the Hap flip when he could have taken it for himself.
Further on this; If hapa flip happened on D1 at the time fitz made his case on him, me and rels would already be getting all the cred.
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Post Post #2015 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:30 pm

Post by outoforder »

I mean like he cannot take the cred anyways 100%. :)
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Post Post #2016 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:33 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

If Cass thought she'd get towncred, of course she'd say it so that everyone thinks "Cass really didn't know that Hawk was mafia, she must be town!"

How is that single, potentially fake-able reaction more town than Creature pushing Hap and Hawk all of D1?
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Post Post #2017 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:35 pm

Post by outoforder »

Why creature? I don't know why Creature should be above Rels and you. Like i just explained why i am very very sure Rels is town and you lead a lynch on mafia on D1 (and basically on D2 too with some help).
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Post Post #2018 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:40 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

I wasn't including me in the list. I obviously think I'm the towniest but I may be biased. My list from towniest to scummiest would be:

Creature, KidAmn, Rels, Doom/Momo // Fitz, Cass, outoforder.

The first four I'm pretty sure are town. The Momo read might need explaining but it's 100% based off of Doom's newb-towntells and the fact that Momo just seems like lynchbait. If I'm wrong about you, Cass and Fitz are where I'd look. I was fairly confident Fitz was town but you made some good points so I want to do another re-read on him.
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Post Post #2019 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:41 pm

Post by outoforder »

In post 2016, BlackVoid wrote:If Cass thought she'd get towncred, of course she'd say it so that everyone thinks "Cass really didn't know that Hawk was mafia, she must be town!"

How is that single, potentially fake-able reaction more town than Creature pushing Hap and Hawk all of D1?
I really don't think Creature has pushed anything (sorry man). I mean i don't see much reasoning from him. I can follow him which makes him town imo, and yeah he's been right, but still there is not much reasoning. Being wrong doesn't make anyone mafia by itself. So like.... Defending mafia or wanting to lynch town is not something i consider scummy by default.

I don't think that's something you fake as scum (Cass), sure you could if you'd played like 100 games but i consider Cass fairly new based on her play. New(ish) players just don't do that, unless she is some mafia god from the beginning which i don't see either (this is not an insult Cass btw, that is to say i do not think you are amongst the top tier players i have seen play this game :) ).
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Post Post #2020 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:45 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Creature isn't a player who will hard-push lynches and make elaborate cases. His "pushes" on Hap and Hawk D1 are the extent I'd expect him to push. He also has good intuition as town and from a couple of scumgames I've skimmed, is reluctant to bus as scum. He stayed pretty firm in his Hap and Hawk suspicions throughout D1, voted Hawk when he had the option to vote Kop, and took a strong stance on voting Hap over Fitz D2.
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Post Post #2021 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:46 pm

Post by outoforder »

So you actually think there is a possibility i 100% endgamed myself as mafia by shooting Kop? :)
Well, that's funny for sure. I mean even if people super townread me for the nightkill i would never make as mafia there is no way i ever win lylo against anyone (not to mention now my lylo looks like there would be 1 of you/creature/rels alive if i was mafia). ^^

That's why i was calling the NK retarded, shoot a suspect and Rels should know i am town (which makes Rels 100% never mafia - he'd not do the kill because he would have to always argue i am town). Like he can be butthurt and call me mafia here now, but he should - as level-headed - know i am not mafia with that NK because i'd rather take a risk of shooting you (especially since i wouldnt have shot you on N1 if i was scum) than playing around lylo with a strong "confirmed" townie. Always. 100%. I can guarantee you that.
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Post Post #2022 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:47 pm

Post by outoforder »

In post 2020, BlackVoid wrote:Creature isn't a player who will hard-push lynches and make elaborate cases. His "pushes" on Hap and Hawk D1 are the extent I'd expect him to push. He also has good intuition as town and from a couple of scumgames I've skimmed, is reluctant to bus as scum. He stayed pretty firm in his Hap and Hawk suspicions throughout D1, voted Hawk when he had the option to vote Kop, and took a strong stance on voting Hap over Fitz D2.
Fair enough. I don't know his play though from beforehand so can you understand my pov?
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Post Post #2023 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:56 pm

Post by outoforder »

And please don't get me wrong. I am very very sure Creature is town. That is just IF i had to make a list.
Like i am almost sure momo is town so that makes Creature like 150% town i guess? :p

I am at a point where i don't consider anyone a possibility other than fitz. Maybe maybe maybe momo, but idk ugh since i read doomfeathers town. If you think Cassielle is mafia idk, you are not convincing me atm. Right now this is the same as me <-> you Aubrey talk. I am sorry i can't lay it out better but i just think she is town for the reasons i have outlined, the play just doesn't make sense as scum. I mean you could prolly get like a shitton of inconsistencies in her filter but i just think the town!reasons will always outweigh whatever there is.
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Post Post #2024 (ISO) » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:00 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Actually the NK made me think it was probably you. Consider for a minute: who has the motivation to make a "weird nk" right now? When there's a weird nk, it usually points to either someone widely townread being mafia, or someone widely scumread who needs several more lynches to win and needs to break up a "townbloc" being mafia. If one of Creature, or KidAmn were mafia, they could have shot the other and me to get to mylo. In that worldview, Kop was pretty much a free mislynch in addition to you and Momo. I doubt Cass makes that nk since she could just shoot from players who are more "obviously" town than her and make it to lylo easy. I can't comment on what kills Momo may or may not make. That leaves you, Fitz, and Rels. I think Fitz might want to leave me alive because I was townreading him towards the end of D2 and might support a push on you. I think Rels may want me alive since he'd want to count on my support while pushing your lynch. I think you'd want me alive because if you kill me, that leaves the field clear for Rels to lynch you D3. If you kill Rels, it's likely I'd push a lynch on you D3. So, you'd be in a conundrum. Either me or Rels could push your lynch so your safest bet would be a "gambit" where you leave both of us alive and cause paranoia among everyone that something is off.

After the events of D2, you were the most likely lynch the following day. So, you had the most motivation to "shake things up" and make people second-guess themselves. For everyone else, Kop was a free mislynch. You were the only player (besides maybe Momo) who was likely to be lynched
before
Kop. There's also the possibility you expect Rels to townread you for the kill which you keep insisting.

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