Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[outoforder]

He is right though in that Aubrey's nk doesn't implicate anyone.

[Creature]

I just want to first know the number of votes havingfitz has and I want to see where BlackVoid went.

[outoforder]

He's at L-3 with 3 votes.

[cassielle]

He is right though in that Aubrey's nk doesn't implicate anyone.

we have two who dont get what nka is now

nka is basically this:
assume the scum team wants to kill anyone whos a little too close to the truth
look at the nk's last scumreads and point at those people

this is objectively the best possible kill to make for the scumteam because it ensures they dont get pressed on the next day -- UNLESS
UNLESS it implicates them by way of nka.
but nka isnt very common (maybe even better to say its very uncommon) so very few people do WIFOM kills to avoid NKA
so generally speaking, NKA done infrequently enough will almost always catch scum

[outoforder]

Except for that you have a game where everyone is 1-shot PGO (so scum basically can't do that) and BlackVoid was always the NK over Aubrey if this was a vanilla game.

[outoforder]

Well okay you are not totally wrong. If Aubrey's reads were complete trash he wouldn't have been night killed that's for sure.

[KidAmn]

I get poe....some of my reads are based on it. But how is Aubrey linked to me giving he was pretty much confirmed town? I don't see anyone being implicated by Aubrey's nk.

Now if people want to hold my Aubrey suspicions against me in light of his flip...that's different. Misguided but more valid.

and so someone doesnt know what nightkill analysis is or is trying to obfuscate and redirect

so i ask again: anyone saying no to a fitz lynch?

VOTE: havingfitz

I'm hesitant because several people I'm leery of are in favour of it, especially the fact that Ooo is posting shit like this

Hapahauli cannot possibly be mafia with anyone in this game except for maybe Creature and Cassielle and neither of those combinations make any sense to me. So there is that.
If you wanna lynch Hapa i'll put my own game in the line because i actually feel that strong about it right now. If you want to lynch Hapa the only player he really makes sense as mafia is me, so i propose that you lynch me instead of him.

Then you just don't get retarded and lynch

havingfitz

. Then you can still lynch both of

KidAmn and Rels.

And that's going to win the game. We can afford 2 mislynches.

I will help you with self-voting if that's the case.
I'd rather lynch mafia though.

Which is full of alternative facts (Hapa cannot be scum with anyone but Creature and Cass) and "Lynch these 3 and you win the game" which is one of those too good to be true things (especially given I know that I'm on that list as town which means at least one of those lynches is a mislynch). I get very wary of anyone, no matter how strong a townread I might have on them, who presents a list of things YOU MUST DO AND YOU WILL WIN GAME (outside of very specific and obvious scenarios obviously) and Ooo hasn't qualified as a townread in any sense of the word in a long time.

The amount of aggro followed by weird roundabout agreement between Ooo and Cass is bothering me too. Not sure if hatef**k or they're doing exactly what Cass purported to believe Rels/Ooo to be doing, but the fact Cass went from

the problem with this is WIFOM

would scum say this to get the towncred of saying it? we dont/cant know

i mean i know you put effort into this post and all but all im thinking atm is "sure, lets do that" because that possible-bluff almost deserves calling
VOTE: outoforder

to jumping on the wagon Ooo wanted in the space of ~2 pages

So yeah, to answer your question, right now I emphatically do not want any part of this wagon.

[KidAmn]

When you read your post back and realise you said shit but self-censored fuck... I dunno man. I dunno.

[outoforder]

IT doesn't really surprise me you are not in favor of this....

[cassielle]

I get poe....some of my reads are based on it. But how is Aubrey linked to me giving he was pretty much confirmed town? I don't see anyone being implicated by Aubrey's nk.

Now if people want to hold my Aubrey suspicions against me in light of his flip...that's different. Misguided but more valid.

and so someone doesnt know what nightkill analysis is or is trying to obfuscate and redirect

so i ask again: anyone saying no to a fitz lynch?

VOTE: havingfitz

I'm hesitant because several people I'm leery of are in favour of it, especially the fact that Ooo is posting shit like this

Hapahauli cannot possibly be mafia with anyone in this game except for maybe Creature and Cassielle and neither of those combinations make any sense to me. So there is that.
If you wanna lynch Hapa i'll put my own game in the line because i actually feel that strong about it right now. If you want to lynch Hapa the only player he really makes sense as mafia is me, so i propose that you lynch me instead of him.

Then you just don't get retarded and lynch

havingfitz

. Then you can still lynch both of

KidAmn and Rels.

And that's going to win the game. We can afford 2 mislynches.

I will help you with self-voting if that's the case.
I'd rather lynch mafia though.

Which is full of alternative facts (Hapa cannot be scum with anyone but Creature and Cass) and "Lynch these 3 and you win the game" which is one of those too good to be true things (especially given I know that I'm on that list as town which means at least one of those lynches is a mislynch). I get very wary of anyone, no matter how strong a townread I might have on them, who presents a list of things YOU MUST DO AND YOU WILL WIN GAME (outside of very specific and obvious scenarios obviously) and Ooo hasn't qualified as a townread in any sense of the word in a long time.

The amount of aggro followed by weird roundabout agreement between Ooo and Cass is bothering me too. Not sure if hatef**k or they're doing exactly what Cass purported to believe Rels/Ooo to be doing, but the fact Cass went from

the problem with this is WIFOM

would scum say this to get the towncred of saying it? we dont/cant know

i mean i know you put effort into this post and all but all im thinking atm is "sure, lets do that" because that possible-bluff almost deserves calling
VOTE: outoforder

to jumping on the wagon Ooo wanted in the space of ~2 pages

So yeah, to answer your question, right now I emphatically do not want any part of this wagon.

nka + possible worlds analysis + an iso reread on fitz made it clear that fitz is a really good lynch

so uh i dont see the issue unless youre advancing a me+ooo team in which case loooooooooooooooooool

[outoforder]

But see Cass, this is kind of what you said me and Rels are doing... It is PRETTY CLOSE to that tbh.

[cassielle]

But see Cass, this is kind of what you said me and Rels are doing... It is PRETTY CLOSE to that tbh.

truth be told i wouldnt know, because things like that are always incredibly different depending on perspective

ill take your word for it for now

[KidAmn]

IT doesn't really surprise me you are not in favor of this....

Yeah, I get it, you see all and know all, it's terribly amusing the first dozen or so times and all.

[outoforder]

IT doesn't really surprise me you are not in favor of this....

Yeah, I get it, you see all and know all, it's terribly amusing the first dozen or so times and all.

I know, it is annoying isn't it?

[BlackVoid]

I just want to first know the number of votes havingfitz has and I want to see where BlackVoid went.

I posted eight hours ago and then I went to work... I would actually very much like you to be more active because POE is hard and you are one slot that if you put in your best effort, I can have a more solid townread. Anything I can do to help you bring back the energy you had in Mini 1843?

Catching up on the rest now.

[havingfitz]

Why was Aubrey confirmed town?

After Hawk flipped scum Aubrey was basically confirmed town. If you don't think so explain why. Right after you provide the case on me you haven't made yet (unless I've missed it).

[havingfitz]

and so someone doesnt know what nightkill analysis is or is trying to obfuscate and redirect

NK analysis is WIFOM at best. Please layout what you learned from the nk....

[BlackVoid]

I'm not unvoting Hap. From his end, he barely had any interaction with Hawk. Just two posts 687 and 725 where he interacts with Hawk but doesn't state a read on him. Then comes 1371 saying Hawk is probably mafia right when he votes him at deadline. He also never retracts his Aubrey scumread which I find suspicious just because of how unlikely it was for them to be partners based on how Hawk jumped on the Aubrey wagon. Since then his prod-dodging did nothing to change my mind.

With that said, I'd prefer to not end the day anytime soon. There's so much information we still need in order to solve the game and cutting it short will put us on the backfoot. For example, I've been waiting for a lot of these things to happen:
1. Momo catching up and thoroughly explaining his reads.
2. Kop either doing the same and explaining his Rels read or him getting replaced and the replacement getting up to speed.
3. Hap finding time for this game and giving us his updated thoughts.
4. Fitz's outoforder case.
5. Creature hopefully becoming more active.
We can't just let Momo and Kop skate by and end the day. Because in case we're wrong about them being town, we'll never get a chance to figure it out unless we prod them into activity. So, that's my reason for wanting to prolong the day.

@momo - when you voted Fitz, what were you basing your decision on? Could you also lay out reasons for your scumreads on Kop, Hap, and Rels?

@outoforder - you were unsure about Hapahauli yesterday. Is your sole reason for townreading him that he showed up at deadline to put down a vote on Hawk? He already said earlier when Aubrey was a likely lynch that he'd be back before deadline. If he didn't show up and Hawk got lynched, that would look pretty bad for him. If he didn't show up and Hawk was lynched D2, that would also look bad for him. But voting when he did makes it a lot more ambiguous so I don't really see that as a strong reason to townread him. You got any other reason? I'm not one to buy into the "lynch me and do this" stuff. If you are town, just walk me through exactly why you are townreading Hap and scumreading Fitz and I'll take that into consideration. Your thoughts on KidAmn would be much appreciated as well.

@Creature - can you do one of striked-out lists showing who you townread and who you suspect? Why do you want to end the day early when the last time you did it in Mini 1843 for D5 and D6, town lost? You don't look like you have the game figured out so help me out here.

[Creature]

Later I will.

[momo]

@BlackVoid....to answer you question I am employing my usual late reading tactic of listening to what others said earlier in the thread. I would over analyze everything if I started at the beginning of the game but by the time I would analyse 70 pages, another 30 more would show up.

So, I looked at what other people said and the support they used and the reactions of the people they were attacking. I judged these exchanges in my head and made my reads based upon them. They will evolve with original thoughts as the game goes on but this is what I have now.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so which arguments did you find most convincing for each of your scumreads?

[cassielle]

I'm not unvoting Hap. From his end, he barely had any interaction with Hawk. Just two posts 687 and 725 where he interacts with Hawk but doesn't state a read on him. Then comes 1371 saying Hawk is probably mafia right when he votes him at deadline. He also never retracts his Aubrey scumread which I find suspicious just because of how unlikely it was for them to be partners based on how Hawk jumped on the Aubrey wagon. Since then his prod-dodging did nothing to change my mind.

With that said, I'd prefer to not end the day anytime soon. There's so much information we still need in order to solve the game and cutting it short will put us on the backfoot. For example, I've been waiting for a lot of these things to happen:
1. Momo catching up and thoroughly explaining his reads.

2. Kop either doing the same and explaining his Rels read or him getting replaced and the replacement getting up to speed.

3. Hap finding time for this game and giving us his updated thoughts.
4. Fitz's outoforder case.
5. Creature hopefully becoming more active.

We can't just let Momo and Kop skate by and end the day. Because in case we're wrong about them being town, we'll never get a chance to figure it out unless we prod them into activity. So, that's my reason for wanting to prolong the day.

@momo - when you voted Fitz, what were you basing your decision on? Could you also lay out reasons for your scumreads on Kop, Hap, and Rels?

@outoforder - you were unsure about Hapahauli yesterday. Is your sole reason for townreading him that he showed up at deadline to put down a vote on Hawk? He already said earlier when Aubrey was a likely lynch that he'd be back before deadline. If he didn't show up and Hawk got lynched, that would look pretty bad for him. If he didn't show up and Hawk was lynched D2, that would also look bad for him. But voting when he did makes it a lot more ambiguous so I don't really see that as a strong reason to townread him. You got any other reason? I'm not one to buy into the "lynch me and do this" stuff. If you are town, just walk me through exactly why you are townreading Hap and scumreading Fitz and I'll take that into consideration. Your thoughts on KidAmn would be much appreciated as well.

@Creature - can you do one of striked-out lists showing who you townread and who you suspect? Why do you want to end the day early when the last time you did it in Mini 1843 for D5 and D6, town lost? You don't look like you have the game figured out so help me out here.

nka says kop is worth looking at anyway tbh
so i mean, my townread of him is gone. lurking is nai, and he hasnt sufficiently earned his townread. the dead townie was suspicious of him and well, caught a case of death, so its worth watching kops slot atm

[Tenshii]

Votecount

2.4

2.5

[L-3] hapahauli - BlackVoid, Rels, Creature
[L-3] havingfitz -momo, outoforder, cassielle
[L-5] outoforder - KidAmn
[L-5] Rels - Kop

Not voting: hapahauli, havingfitz

With 10 alive, a majority vote is decided with 6 players.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-03-19 00:00:00)

Prod: Kop has (expired on 2017-03-09 11:20:00) to post until being force-replaced.

[Kop]

Just got back on. Sorry had two busy days at work and being a delivery driver means I can't catch up as much as I'd like during day. Will catch up this afternoon

[BlackVoid]

Trying to POE the game, I decided to go through people's interactions with Hawk. I'll start with these three today. I'll do the remaining six players in a couple more sections tomorrow.

Creature & Hawk interactions:

From a re-read, I'm fairly positive Creature is town. There's a consistent thread of gamesolving through his ISO where he zeroes in on Hap and Hawk as scum. His interactions with Hawk don't look like bussing. He immediately latches onto Hawk's bad entrance pushing Doomfeathers, always has him as a scumread and is willing to lynch him. His choice to vote Hawk at deadline over Kop matches up with his reads perfectly. I liked 351, 630, 631, 638, 641, and 1313 in particular. His Hap read resonates with me because I share it. As for Hawk's posts, the sequence in 537 and 538 seemed like a genuine interaction with Creature pressing his scumread Hawk for a stance on his other scumread Hap, and Hawk resisting. 669 gives me slight pause because Hawk tries to stretch for a reason to not lynch Creature. But Hawk's shade-throwing at Creature and trying to get people paranoid of him in 659 and finally him pointing fingers at Creature's vote on Aubrey being more opportunistic than his own, seals Creature as a strong townread for me.

KidAmn & Hawk interactions:

I'm not as sure here but I think KidAmn is probably town. 538 is the biggest indicator where Hawk sides with Hap over KidAmn and parrots what Rels said earlier about KidAmn's reaction being bad. 377 sounded like he was unhapppy with the townread on KidAmn; I think if KidAmn was a partner, Hawk would be fine with him getting townreads. I'm not sure how I feel about his vote in 787 where he says we can always come back to Hap but that he needed to pressure KidAmn to get him talking. 789 felt like coaching at first glance but doesn't make sense to do with daytalk. The only time KidAmn talks to Hawk is 534 which is probably a very slight lean towards not-partners given how he's trying to convince Hawk. I don't get KidAmn's townread on Cass in the space between 817 and 895 or willingness to vote Rels just on Cass's word. But I think he believes in his Hap push. I wouldn't say it's impossible that he's on a team with Fitz/Hawk but I just don't see KidAmn being scum in the first place.

Cass & Hawk interactions:

While I'm wary of Cass, I think 1398 showed pride in having "correctly" read Hawk as town - and it's true, she did townread Hawk since replacing in. I don't think it was an entirely unreasonable read. Hawk made some very good, introspective, reflective posts. I do want to know why vote Hawk over Kop if you were so sure that I was scum and I was hard-pushing Hawk. You never wondered that I might be scum partnered with Kop and was pushing Hawk as a counterwagon? 660 and 865 looked like town genuinely having a townread. My biggest concern with Cass is that she reminds me a lot of how the scumteam in Mini 1843 (Cloudkicker, MariaR, and Sotty7) played. There were a ton of over-the-top genuine-sounding interactions and hard-defending. If Cass is from Epic-Mafia, I'd be fairly confident she's scum, otherwise leaning town but somewhat of a tossup. I'll have to come back to this as I'm mostly dismissing her as town for that reaction in twilight.

Summary - There's no way Creature is scum. KidAmn's interactions with Hawk are unremarkable but his posts by itself seem town. Cass is tough to read and I'm setting her aside for later but I'm leaning towards that reaction after Hawk's lynch being slightly town.