Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[outoforder]

Day 1: A topic starts
Day 2: At this point there should have been something
Day 3: Topic will probably stall, but just bring something new
Day 4: We discuss that something new
Day 5: We push players
Day 6: We organize our reads
Day 7: We start pushing lynch wagons
Day 8: We flipflop around
Day 9: Day's discussion already done
Day 10: Good to lynch already
Day 11: Very good to lynch already
Day 12: If you're still there, better start worrying
Day 13: Speed up that wagon if you haven't already, otherwise things might get ugly
Day 14: You better have a good wagon because this is considered just an emergency day

I am pretty sure we did better than that this game.

[outoforder]

Also remember there is never going to be more than 1 mafia in the Hawk wagon.
Never ever never.

[outoforder]

By "intentionally tying himself to Hap," if you mean making Hap look guilty in case he, Hawk flips, I don't see why he would try to make a doomed townie look guilty just in case he somehow flips before that townie. Remember it looked like Hap was the lynch for the day, not Hawk until the last seven hours or so till deadline.

If you are saying he's trying to get towncred from a Hap townflip, I'd argue that he would actually call Hap town while pushing counterwagons. He wouldn't say he was very confident in a Hap scumflip while subtly laying down his votes elsewhere and working against the lynch.

This is also Hawk's first game as scum so I don't expect an insane level of manipulation.

idk if you're talking to me here but i don't really get what you're trying to say in this post. Or where are you referring to.
For the bolded / underlined part; I don't believe you here. Regardless of how many scumgames Hawk has we are talking about a dude who kinda made you (and definitely Aubrey) think he is town AFTER he was lynched. Even starting doing that requires a personality to perform quite cunning stunts... ^^

[cassielle]

possible scum:
fitz, hapa, kidamn, ooo, rels

pairings:
fitz/hapa>> possible? need to reread
fitz/kidamn>> ditto

fitz/ooo

>> not possible
fitz/rels>> possible
-
hapa/kidamn>> unlikely but possible
hapa/ooo>> possible
hapa/rels>> possible
-
kidamn/ooo>> unlikely but possible

kidamn/rels

>> not possible
-
ooo/rels>> possible


gonna take a bit and reread
may as well do nka while im at it to ping a pairing or two from aubrey's reads

[outoforder]

You don't even need to reread anything to tell i am never mafia with Rels.

[cassielle]

You don't even need to reread anything to tell i am never mafia with Rels.

i see a lot of distancing but i havent seen a single one of you try to push the other seriously

also thats precisely what scum!ooo would say in a ooo/rels world. sorry

[Creature]

Not sure how havingfitz became townread.

[outoforder]

I just offered myself being lynched over a townie so Rels can what??? "get towncredit"? (when me - Rels interaction caused the whole thing in the first place). I am sorry, smart mafia teams do not do that. Especially when it would leave 1 mafia alive which has a chance of instantly losing the game if you shoot the wrong person.. They just simply agree to lynch the townie.

[outoforder]

I mean, if that's how you make reads then you can always call anyone in the game mafia because you can always argue "that's why, so i would think that" when someone points out how your argument doesn't make any sense. Or just call everything else bussing because "then we whiteknighted a scum guy and they'll win in the end and that was the plan"....

[cassielle]

possible scum:
fitz, hapa, kidamn, ooo, rels

pairings:

fitz/hapa

>> not possible
fitz/kidamn>> possible

fitz/ooo

>> not possible
fitz/rels>> possible
-
hapa/kidamn>> unlikely but possible
hapa/ooo>> possible
hapa/rels>> possible
-
kidamn/ooo>> unlikely but possible

kidamn/rels

>> not possible
-
ooo/rels>> possible

possible teams:
fitz: 2
hapa: 3
kidamn: 3
ooo: 3
rels: 3

doing nka next

also: distancing from rels in case you actually get taken to the lynch. +towncred also yes
and theres WIFOM: sometimes town wont call the bluff, theyll say "nah only town would do that" and leave it be. which is why scum do it

besides, if youre town you dont need to worry about rels being lynched after you anyway now do you?

[havingfitz]

If you want to lynch Hapa the only player he really makes sense as mafia is me, so i propose that you lynch me instead of him.

Suspect pool -

hapa, OoO

, (tbd off the fence?)

Works for me! I'm good with either of your lynches.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++


OK BV...sorry for the delayed response. Three other games at more critical junctures and RL took priority.

I believe you asked me to elaborate on my Rels town read and my suspicions of OoO and hapa.

WRT Rels...my early catch up gave mention to an early townread on Rels (due to likeminded posting) and coincidentally I give my townread process to Rels in Post 523. This post also has my early thoughts towards hapa (and a few others). It's what I usually draw my early town reads from. Beyond D1 as the game progresses...my townreads are effected by other actions (ex. claims, flips, more posts to assess).

As for today...I have seen nothing to sway me from my tr on Rels. Plus he was willing to vote scum!Hawk. Likewise on hapa....he was also willing to vote scum!Hawk which is probably the main reason I have pause towards him being scum. While I was willing to give him a pass on the meta case brought up against him by Rels and OoO I still do not like his awkward agreement with Aubrey's early scum read on me. It felt like he was taking lazy advantage of weak suspicions thrown my way. I don't recall why Aubrey spent much of day on hapa but it makes my suspicions feel more valid with Aubrey suspecting hapa. I also do not like the fact hapa has abandoned this game but I don't think that is necessarily AI so I won't hold that against him. But I do not like it. I just hate voting dead slots. I will....but I don't like to. Otherwise the only voting that hapa did D1 that I have issue with were his stance on KidAdm and his time on my wagon. He hasn't posted D2 so nothing new to judge him on.

I find it hard to imagine both Hawk's scum partners would have bussed him but the only players not on the Hawk lynch were me, Kop, Doom and KidAdm. I'm town. I have tr Doom (though momo is trying his best to change that) and KidAdm the entire game. Kop is iffy but he is heading towards replacement probably. Plus...as has been mentioned...Hawk probably doesn't try to shift a wagon onto a scum buddy just to save his own neck.

In regards to the end of D1...Hawk had three votes and momentum when he switched from Aubrey to Kop. I don't know if he really thought a Kop wagon had a chance (in which case voting a buddy would produce some nice Kop town cred) or if at that point in the game he was more interested in getting a no lynch. Which almost happened. I'm rambling. I think Kop is probably town but not a lock by any means.

I haven't had a chance to present my OoO suspicions due to lack of time but I started on this early this morning and I want to post what I have while I have the chance. I will present my OoO stuff NLT tomorrow.

[outoforder]

Oh i am sorry i misunderstood what whiteknighting means. What i meant is that you can always call someone being bussing because "it's beneficial as you gain so much town credit you basically never get lynched".

[havingfitz]

Also remember there is never going to be more than 1 mafia in the Hawk wagon.
Never ever never.

If you and hapa are scum you absolutely want town to believe this hypothesis.

[cassielle]

Oh i am sorry i misunderstood what whiteknighting means. What i meant is that you can always call someone being bussing because "it's beneficial as you gain so much town credit you basically never get lynched".

the main thing is the WIFOM tbh

also i did nka on aubrey and welp... ill do a new post for that

[outoforder]

[quote="In post 1710
[...]
I find it hard to imagine both Hawk's scum partners would have bussed him but the only players not on the Hawk lynch were me, Kop, Doom and KidAdm. I'm town. I have tr Doom (though momo is trying his best to change that) and KidAdm the entire game. Kop is iffy but he is heading towards replacement probably. Plus...as has been mentioned...Hawk probably doesn't try to shift a wagon onto a scum buddy just to save his own neck.

In regards to the end of D1...Hawk had three votes and momentum when he switched from Aubrey to Kop. I don't know if he really thought a Kop wagon had a chance (in which case voting a buddy would produce some nice Kop town cred) or if at that point in the game he was more interested in getting a no lynch. Which almost happened. I'm rambling. I think Kop is probably town but not a lock by any means.

I haven't had a chance to present my OoO suspicions due to lack of time but I started on this early this morning and I want to post what I have while I have the chance. I will present my OoO stuff NLT tomorrow.

Imagine you are town and you think you have solved the game and Hapahauli and OoO are scum. Now you have imagined that. Now think why havingfitz writes all this (before the bolded part) instead of what he says he'll do later in the bolded part? (hint: one of those two is important , one is not unless you wanna change your mind later for some reason).

[cassielle]

so: aubrey's last scumreads were fitz (for over-defensiveness) and kop (for not being on any wagon at eod) (with remnants of shadecasting at hapa but not an actual scumread of him)

so no matter what we think atm, fitz/kop is a possible world

i scumread fitz after my reread of his ISO, and ive had doubts about kop for a couple days because lurkslots are NAI, not town-indicative, and i may have been giving him a bit too much of a pass
so i find this nka result to be right up my alley, so to speak

fitz is best lynch for today imo

[momo]

Reading right now don't like kop, hapa, fitz, or rels. They are a possible scum team

[momo]

Well not together but any combination

[cassielle]

does anyone in particular disagree with a fitz wagon for today (except fitz ofc)?

speak and ye shall be heard

[havingfitz]

fitz is best lynch for today imo

Was there more to your opinion than reading my ISO?

Any specifics I can address?

[cassielle]

fitz is best lynch for today imo

Was there more to your opinion than reading my ISO?

Any specifics I can address?

honestly poe + nka would still make you the best lynch for today so not really unless you think you can suddenly obvtown like crazy

[havingfitz]

I get poe....some of my reads are based on it. But how is Aubrey linked to me giving he was pretty much confirmed town? I don't see anyone being implicated by Aubrey's nk.

Now if people want to hold my Aubrey suspicions against me in light of his flip...that's different. Misguided but more valid.

[outoforder]

Why was Aubrey confirmed town?

[outoforder]

Come one it should be super easy to answer since he was confirmed town to you....

[cassielle]

I get poe....some of my reads are based on it. But how is Aubrey linked to me giving he was pretty much confirmed town? I don't see anyone being implicated by Aubrey's nk.

Now if people want to hold my Aubrey suspicions against me in light of his flip...that's different. Misguided but more valid.

and so someone doesnt know what nightkill analysis is or is trying to obfuscate and redirect

so i ask again: anyone saying no to a fitz lynch?

VOTE: havingfitz