Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

JDodge, did you get caught up yet?

Gorgon and CKD, it's not like either of you to just suddenly cease an argument that is that heated, where'd you go?

cicero, I hope you're getting better, but we're five days from deadline, input would be very much appreciated as Zindaras posted nothing the entire day.

[shaft.ed]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

JDodge, did you get caught up yet?

Gorgon and CKD, it's not like either of you to just suddenly cease an argument that is that heated, where'd you go?

cicero, I hope you're getting better, but we're five days from deadline, input would be very much appreciated as Zindaras posted nothing the entire day.

[cicero]

Thanks for remembering me Shafted. I've spent today reading up and would be done already except that the site keeps going offline with those PHPbb errors.

As of page 11 - which is as far as Ive gotten because of the technical issues - I am strongly in favor of lynching Oman.

I want to lynch Oman - and not because I think he's scum. He's probably town. - like others it is because his bus driver power would be simply too useful to Sylar. I dont care if people think its "scummy" to think this because we should "only lynch scum". In this game, so far, I see Oman as a huge liability. Obviously there are other options like letting him be jailkept or doc protecting him or even the one where he makes the doc protect him ( but remember doc protection doesnt protect against Sylar.)

I want that power out of the game immediately. Otherwise let's all just play as vanilla townies.

I'll be done my re-read very soon and back with more content. I may even come back with "oops, I changed my mind. I'm a dumbass" but it will be very shortly and long before deadline. Like I said, if mafiascum wouldnt keep going down Id be done.

Again, I'm sorry about the delay. I'm not a fan of lurkiness as many can attest.

[curiouskarmadog]

ok, so I am having issues posting..will updte when I can post and it doesnt take 30 minutes

[Oman]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

Well, I doubt I'll be killed.

For one thing, I'm carrying the most votes, and that is something that I (when I play scum) try to keep around.

Oh, and if I do die, well, that would suck...I hadn't thought of that.

Shaft.ed, do you think I'll die tonight?

[Oman]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

Well, I doubt I'll be killed.

For one thing, I'm carrying the most votes, and that is something that I (when I play scum) try to keep around.

Oh, and if I do die, well, that would suck...I hadn't thought of that.

Shaft.ed, do you think I'll die tonight?

[Oman]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

Well, I doubt I'll be killed.

For one thing, I'm carrying the most votes, and that is something that I (when I play scum) try to keep around.

Oh, and if I do die, well, that would suck...I hadn't thought of that.

Shaft.ed, do you think I'll die tonight?

[Thestatusquo]

Oman...I meant lynched.

[Oman]

Ohhh.

Well...yeah.

[The Fonz]

I want to lynch Oman - and not because I think he's scum. He's probably town. - like others it is because his bus driver power would be simply too useful to Sylar.

Why specifically Sylar? I don't really like this post. It's like 'I don't buy the case against him, but I want him dead anyway.' There is no role in the game that is so destructive in the hands of scum that it warrants killing a player you find town solely to get rid of it.

Could you explain

why

you think he's town?

[cicero]

I thought he was probably town on page 11. Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town. However, most of his scummy behavior happened after that point. I've finished my re-read and I could go either way now. On scumtells alone, he's scum. But remember I have an anti Day one scumtell bias that informs my writing. He feels scummy to me now but day one feelings of scumminess are generally worth jack and shit. On a balance of odds alone with behavior removed he is "probably" town. ZOneace also feels scummy in his answers. But would I be surprised if he turned up town? Not for a second. Several other players fill the same slot for me. Towniness !=townie. Scumminess !=scum. Espectially on day one.

But I don't really care if people don't like my post. Everyone else can run around justifying reasons to vote Oman for being scummy - which he is after a full reread - but the way I see it is this. It's pure tactice. Sylar has the ability to kill a player, cut off their head and then own their power.

If Oman is already Sylar we're already in trouble. If Sylar kills Oman he'll take the Bus Driver power and then we wont be able to trust in doc protection from you, or any watcher or tracker results. Lord knows what other mischief I haven't thought of yet. If Oman is mafia we already have that as a problem, of course, but the odds are that each of us, looked at in isolation, is town. In short Shaft.ed is the man.

I know the whole adage about "I lynch scummy people. Period." But I'm here to win the game. For town. And in my estimation that will be best served by the ability of each player to trust that the information the mod has given them with respect to their power is true. As long as the Bus Driver power is floating around that will be impossible.

As I said, I also like the idea of powers being given to Peter Petrelli. It would allow for doubling up on watcher or tracker results and maybe a backup doc. But we cant just make it the plan, of course, because there are two kills going to happen tonight and anything we find especially useful may end up shot or have their head opened like a can opener.

As for other issues and people:

I am terribly troubled by zoneace I have to say. If I was going to Lynch someone who is not Oman it would be Zoneace. With very little explanation he is pushing a No Lynch solution - which is anathema to me because

Oman must die

and he refuses to consider giving his power to Peter/Adele. He provides no explanation for this and refuses to respond to arguments. He only pops in long enough to blame Shea for picking on him. How can anyone reason with you, Zoneace? How can we explore ideas if you won't discuss them and maybe change your mind?

Shafted - In this game Shafted is the man. I know people accused him of craplogic at one point but I'll need to go back and find it again to see if it's scum crap logic.

TSQ - I felt like Shea was scum for the first half of the game because he was being active but not doing any real inquisitive scumhunting in my opinion. He was pressing others generally - and mostly Zoneace. I've changed my mind now though. He really got some great posts in towards the latter half.

Adele - People should have gone with her LAL idea I think. I always think gambitting townies think they are so much more clever than anyone else and so far their results have never impressed me. I'll answer Adele this way: I take your point. In this game I will think very carefully before trying to use any lies to out scum. I will understand that while there are some gambits that can be used to trap people, we are infinitely more likeley to be better served by full honesty.

Yvonne - has that delicious lurkiness that smells like noobscum afraid of making a mistake. Peek-a-boo, I see you!

CKD - has strategy blinders on. Jumping up and down saying "I only lynch scummy, harumph!" is dumb. We should consider and argue through all the best plays for town. This looks like someone who wants to avoid having that happen. One of my big scumtells for this day one is looking for who is making what arguments to keep who alive no matter what.

Shaft.Ed - Again, is the man. He has the best take on this game for town in my opinion. You should all listen to him more. Even if he turns out to be scum, his ideas seem to me to be very helpful to town. Which isnt exactly unheard of.

Gorgon - I dont trust. Will need to look at very closely as the game goes along.

Fonz/DAS - There's nothing to see here yet. Fonz is good posting but I cant imagine Fonz being bad posting. DAS was DAS. I was in Mafia 69 with him and he ended up scum. His posts were like this, but I think his posts are always like this. I wont be able to draw connections until people start dying. I disagree that there is no role in the game so powerful that we should just get rid of it. But I'm more suspicious of how reliable "scumtells" are than Fonz is so I put more importance on things like metas and investigatory powers.

Jdodge - I have to learn to read jdodge. He feels scummy in this game but he felt scummy in my last game too. I was compelled by the easy pickins argument from a few pages back when he popped in to pile on to ... zoneace was it? or Oman. Anyway the easy wagon.

Mathcam - feels townie. Which, again, doesnt mean IS townie.


Once again though

This is Day one

. We will probably lynch a townie. Scummy does not equal scum. With all the powers out, lynching the watcher or the tracker is not smart. Lynching the bus driver IS smart. I like to play smart not pure.

Vote Oman

. The fact that he's acted scummy is a nice bonus but it isnt my main reason for voting for him. I'd be happy to lie to you and tell you I find him scummy and that's my main reason but I already promised Adele I'd try not to lie.

[ZONEACE]

I am terribly troubled by zoneace I have to say. If I was going to Lynch someone who is not Oman it would be Zoneace. With very little explanation he is pushing a No Lynch solution - which is anathema to me because

Oman must die

and he refuses to consider giving his power to Peter/Adele. He provides no explanation for this and refuses to respond to arguments. He only pops in long enough to blame Shea for picking on him. How can anyone reason with you, Zoneace? How can we explore ideas if you won't discuss them and maybe change your mind?

well more useless bullshit about me. How many people just have to make shit up in an attempt to get me lynched? I have GIVEN REASONS FOR MY NO LYNCH SO STOP MAKING SHIT UP.

I explained why i wasn't willing to give my power to adele at this time, so again stop lying.

[cicero]

Zoneace, I'm not lying. Maybe I missed your good reasons in the middle of your streams of paranoid invective directed toward TSQ.

Please answer the following questions directly for a dumb overworked, off and on headcolded, computer screwing up replacement. Use quotes if you like.

1) Why is No Lynch a better option than removing Oman the bus driver who may also coincidentally be scum.

2) Why are you not willing to give your power to Adele? Is it because you want to keep yourself valuable enough to stay alive? Because that's all I see. Self preservation. I did not see you respond to the patient explanation that Adele put to you that points out that giving her your power is useful to town EVEN if she is scum.

[ZONEACE]

1) I just think waiting until we get a MODICUM of actual info before we kill a known power is a decent idea.

2) because, if we can't trust Oman, we can't trust adele (we can't trust you, we can't trust me). Why should i give my power to somoene night 1 that i have no reason to trust yet? Also, what's wrong with a little self preservation. Until i get some idea of who i can trust, i'm gonna self preservate the fuck out of this game. I mean honestly, why is that a problem? You want the tracker to try and not survive?

[The Fonz]

I thought he was probably town on page 11. Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town.

You're

seriously

using that as an argument? Really?

On scumtells alone, he's scum. But remember I have an anti Day one scumtell bias that informs my writing.

So, you think that of everyone he's dropped the biggest scumtells, but you still don't think he's likely to be scum. I suggest you revise your definition of 'scumtell.'

He feels scummy to me now but day one feelings of scumminess are generally worth jack and shit. On a balance of odds alone with behavior removed he is "probably" town.

This is true of every player on day one of evey mafia game, ever. That reads like an argument for no-lynch to me.

ZOneace also feels scummy in his answers. But would I be surprised if he turned up town? Not for a second. Several other players fill the same slot for me. Towniness !=townie. Scumminess !=scum. Espectially on day one.

It's very hard to be so scummy on day one that an observer would be surprised to see them turn up town. Scumminess =/= scum, but does equal 'more likely to be scum.' That's pretty much the definition of it- behavior that's more likely than average to be exhibited by scum.

But I don't really care if people don't like my post. Everyone else can run around justifying reasons to vote Oman for being scummy - which he is after a full reread - but the way I see it is this. It's pure tactice. Sylar has the ability to kill a player, cut off their head and then own their power.

Which is true whoever Sylar is.

If Oman is already Sylar we're already in trouble. If Sylar kills Oman he'll take the Bus Driver power and then we wont be able to trust in doc protection from you, or any watcher or tracker results.

Doc protection doesn't protect from Sylar anyway. Doc protection doesn't work if I die, anyway. Yvonne can watch me (again- she doesn't have to, but it's the percentage play), and if anyone tries to mess with my power they die, simple as. If Oman

is

Sylar, even if is Yvonne is scum, she's got a reason to out him. And Sylar, who can't be tracked to a kill, would be foolish to try to steal my doc abilities- it's one of the few ways (s)he could get caught.

Lord knows what other mischief I haven't thought of yet. If Oman is mafia we already have that as a problem, of course, but the odds are that each of us, looked at in isolation, is town. In short Shaft.ed is the man.

I can actually think of more mafia uses for a bus driver than SK ones, hence I find it odd that you are concerned about Oman being Sylar specifically.

I know the whole adage about "I lynch scummy people. Period." But I'm here to win the game. For town.

Lynching people you think are scum is obviously the best way to win the game, therefore those positions are not contradictory.

And in my estimation that will be best served by the ability of each player to trust that the information the mod has given them with respect to their power is true. As long as the Bus Driver power is floating around that will be impossible.

Yes, the bus driver power can be useful in the hands of scum. No, this is not sufficient to lynch someone you think is town.

2) because, if we can't trust Oman, we can't trust adele (we can't trust you, we can't trust me). Why should i give my power to somoene night 1 that i have no reason to trust yet? quote]

This has been explained enough times. An investigative or protective role in the hands of scum is actually to that scum's detriment, since the scum either has to use it (which prohibits that particular individual from killing) or lie and make up a result/protection, which can lead to that scum being outed.

[cicero]

Fonz - you are not reading my post correctly. I'm not concerned about Oman BEING Sylar. There is a 1/12 chance of that. I'm concerned about Oman being KILLED by Sylar and therefore becoming the bus driver. How can you keep missing that point? You seem to have it in your head that I think Oman is already Sylar. Get that out of your head and re-read.

As for whether you think that's a good enough reason to lynch - agree to disagree. You vote for your reasons. I'll vote for mine. People often lynch jesters day one: Let 'em Fulfill their win condition and get 'em outta the way. On Day 1 I dont trust my ability to find scum. I have yet to be in a game where scum has been successfully lynched on day one. Maybe some of you have had a different experience. In the context of MY experience I see one very very smart move in this game. It is called lynching Oman. Let me break it down:

First - on probability alone there is a 25% to 33% chance that he is scum. THEN his behavior adds to this slightly. Lets say, given the near uselessness of scumtells on day one that he is 7% more likely to be scum. 32% to 39%. Not bad odds. Then factor in the fact that his power is dangerous in the hands of scum. This means there is as much as a 39% chance that that power is already in the hands of scum. NOW factor in the fact that Sylar would enjoy that power. Now maybe he cant or wont or will find it too risky to attempt. If you think that's the case then by all means dont vote Oman.

Obviously our watcher can watch Oman but you are busy jumping up and down yelling at her to watch you instead and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power. Heck he could be the Haitian. There's a lot of problematic scenarios. I dont want that power in the hands of scum whether Oman is scum already or if Sylar takes it.

Given the unlikeliness of guessing correctly on day one, our correct course of action is clear.

[cicero]

Now Zoneace:

1) I just think waiting until we get a MODICUM of actual info before we kill a known power is a decent idea.

This did not answer my question. Normally I would see your point. But you seem to be working at cross purposes. There is a good argument to be made for ignoring powers altogether and just lynching based on scumminess. That is how every day one goes because players have long realised that a lynch is better than a no lynch. Otherwise every day one would end in no lynch. But your argument is predicated, it seems, on the usefulness of the power roles. As such it is unclear to me why you refuse...and I mean refuse... to address the argument that there are roles in the game that are in fact not only useless for town but in fact harmful for town. Therefore your own argument of power-based rather than scumtell based criteria should lead you to advocate Oman's lynch. Yet you again refuse to even address the existence of the argument.

2) because, if we can't trust Oman, we can't trust adele (we can't trust you, we can't trust me). Why should i give my power to somoene night 1 that i have no reason to trust yet? Also, what's wrong with a little self preservation. Until i get some idea of who i can trust, i'm gonna self preservate the fuck out of this game. I mean honestly, why is that a problem? You want the tracker to try and not survive?

I want the tracker ability to survive as long as possible. If you are town your own life is secondary to meeting the town's win condition. As Fonz just pointed out in his last post:

This has been explained enough times. An investigative or protective role in the hands of scum is actually to that scum's detriment, since the scum either has to use it (which prohibits that particular individual from killing) or lie and make up a result/protection, which can lead to that scum being outed.

yet you refuse to address, rebut or concede this point.

At this point I am, in isolation, seeing a strong argument for you and Oman as scumbuddies. Yet you both swear that you are town. How about you start acting like it. If the tracker ends up lynched by the "scumtells only" crowd it will be your fault. Not theirs. Now - I'm not telling you that you NEED to give your trackability to Adele. There's no need for scum to know that you are doing it or when and frankly I think she's likely top on the list for Nightkills (which no one seems to be remembering) but your logic as to why you wouldnt consider it doesnt follow.

[Gorgon]

Gorgon and CKD, it's not like either of you to just suddenly cease an argument that is that heated, where'd you go?

Well, I don't have much else to say to ckd until he chimes in again. Looks like he has posting issues, so let's hope he can post soon.

I'm buying what cicero is selling. Oman's power is not helpful to the town, and is very tempting for Sylar to take and wreak havoc with, i.e. if Oman isn't Sylar. I do feel that his 'lynch Oman on general principles' stance is a little over the top, but he does support this stance well. I don't think this is something that cicero would gamble on, just to get Oman out of the game. In short, cicero looks sincere in his intentions.

I'm now convinced that Oman is the best lynch at this point.

Btw, I have every reason to believe cicero's rhetoric that he has trouble finding scum Day 1, since my last game with him (Mini 499) is a good example of this - I was scum there, but he was convinced I was town all through D1. Anyway, cicero is posting good stuff in this game so far ... plus, he has a point when he says that finding scum D1 is generally a tough task.

There's just one thing though:

First - on probability alone there is a 25% to 33% chance that he is scum.

I thought there were definitely four scum in this game - 3 mafia, 1 Sylar ... which makes for a 33% chance of any given player being scum, no matter what.

P.S. What's Oman at now? L-1? Close to that?

[cicero]

I'm confused about that part. I wasnt sure when writing it whether the Sylar role could go to someone in the mafia as well. I also couldnt remember if it was three mafia or two. Normally I would go look that stuff up immediately but both this site and my home computer are causing me to be less thorough than usual.

[The Fonz]

Fonz - you are not reading my post correctly. I'm not concerned about Oman BEING Sylar. There is a 1/12 chance of that. I'm concerned about Oman being KILLED by Sylar and therefore becoming the bus driver. How can you keep missing that point? You seem to have it in your head that I think Oman is already Sylar. Get that out of your head and re-read.

Because you never actually said that. Simple as. What you said was 'that power to me is too useful to Sylar.' Which made me think you were arguing 'We can't take the risk of Oman being Sylar.' I would dispute that bus driver is necessarily hugely destabilising in the hands of an SK.

Basically- I accept that his power is more useful to scum than town. I was arguing the admissability of that kind of consideration with CKD, if you recall.

Obviously our watcher can watch Oman but you are busy jumping up and down yelling at her to watch you instead

Hardly jumping up and down, I'm just asking Yvonne to consider it. Fear of the watcher is the only thing which could possibly keep me alive overnight.

and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power.

Uh, yeah, but the investigation power isn't that useful to Sylar. The idea was whoever gets a second shot from Nathan *considers* using it on Peter.

[shaft.ed]

Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town.

I guess we have differing experience, but I find that most people jumping out saying I'm Town in there first post end up scum. Also your whole post about D1 is bizzaro world is a bit off IMO, but I don't think a full discussion of it will help this game especially as the site seems to be acting up so I'll leave it alone.

How many people just have to make shit up in an attempt to get me lynched?

I don't recall cicero trying to get you lynched. Can you tell me again who is the one making shit up? And ZA please address the twice repeated repeat of the argument that scumAdele having investigative powers is in fact a hinderance to them.

I can actually think of more mafia uses for a bus driver than SK ones, hence I find it odd that you are concerned about Oman being Sylar specifically.

It's not concern that Oman already IS scum it's concern that his power can become a scum ability if Sylar kills him.

[shaft.ed]

and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power.

If Sylar kills Adele he only gets the Absorbing power not the powers already absorbed.

[The Fonz]

Yes, cicero has explained that. But I still don't think 'we can't let Sylar get his hands on that ability' is a good argument, since bus driver isn't particularly useful to a player who can't be tracked to a kill, and doesn't have buddies.

Put it this way- if I were Sylar, and I'd somehow been able to know this prior to choosing a role, bus driver would be like my fifth choice.

[shaft.ed]

who can't be tracked to a kill

I don't think I've noticed that part.

[cicero]

@shafted re 596: I was unclear. That wasnt the point I was making. I know that's all he can do. It's pronoun confusion.

I meant that there are situations in which Sylar can generally know he's not being watched because the watcher is passing her power to Adele by watching her. (I now realise thanks to a reminder from Fonz that I forgot to take into account the Nathan Petrelli factor.)

@Fonz - hmm... you MAY be changing my mind a bit. I'm starting to see how it isnt as powerful QUITE as I thought for Sylar, though it is still very troublesome as mafia. He can still switch Yvonne's vote as watcher. He doesnt have much reason to move the tracker, that's true, and he's already doc proof and he can't affect the jailkeeper. I could see him using it, though, in ways you havent considered. Like using a tracker result to cast suspicion on someone who is pressuring him.