Mini 523 - Game Over!

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Well...it's not my fault that nobody read the so-called flame war objectivly, because presenting a case was basically what I was trying to do, but every one just backed off and let him cuss me out, while I was trying to actually carry on a serious debate. The point is, that if it didn't bother you when he voted an asshole, then you can't say anything to me when I do the same thing.

Oh, and I don't understand how arguing with that looser for like I don't even know how many pages, equals me sitting back and expecting some one else to do my dirty work for me. All I was expecting was for you guys to participate, and you couldn't even do that. If you had, maybe, just maybe it wouldn't have turned into such a huge flame war, and everything would have made more sense. The only person who seemed to be trying to bring things under control was HeH, every one else just yelled at us to stop. I really wouldn't be surprise if most of you guys haven't even read the whole arguement anyway, so don't try to tell me what I was or was not doing (ie. not putting enough effort into showing everyone good reasons to vote for DS. Just because I was directing them at him, doesn't mean you guys couldn't have followed along and said your peace as well). Why don't you read the arguement, form an opinion, and then yell at me if you think I conducted myself wrong. Or is it too much for me to ask of you to actually completely read over something, and understand it before you pass judgement? If I remember correctly that was my whole issue with you voting me earlier today. You made no sense then and you don't now.

[NabakovNabakov]

End of Day Vote Count!

Thanatos (3) - VampyreLord, Infinitive, Disciple Slayer
Dark_Lady_Shaiann (1) - charter

Disciple Slayer(5)

- Nudude, Gorgon, liamcool, Dark_Lady_Shaiann, Thanatos


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

*Huff... puff* a strange man comes running up to the town square.

"Sorry I'm late, everybody. I'm the deputy hangman, but I totally forgot I was on assignment for this lynch mob!"

Everyone in the crowd rolls their eyes. The strange man points at Disciple Slayer.

"Is this the guy?" he asks. Everybody rolls their eyes again.

Disciple Slayer is quickly strung up. The deputy hangman packs up his noose and begins to run off.

"Wait!" you all shout. "Was he scum!?"

"What?"

"

Was he scum?

"

"Oh, yeah. Sure, he was scum."

Disciple Slayer, MAFIA GOON, has been lynched.

I didn't ever get official mod powers over this game, so I can't lock the thread. All players are expected not to post (on their honor) until Num comes back. You should probably direct night choices to his inbox.

[Disciple Slayer]

Fuck.

[Numenorean7]

I'm back. Thanks very much for filling in for me, NabNab!

Night choices due 72 hours from this post:
January 9, 2:06pm PST (January 9, 10:06pm GMT)
If you need more time, I'll extend the night for up to 24 hours.

[Numenorean7]

In the morning, you all gather at the center of town. You count off: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.... VampyreLord is missing. Frankly, no one is very surprised, and you go off in a group to search for his body. You find him dead in the police station with several empty beer bottles lying around. Apparently he was so sure he was going to die, he never bothered to investigate someone. He didn't even seem to have made any effort to defend himself. Subdued, you all troop back to the center of town, ready for another day of argument and accusation.

VampyreLord, COP, killed N2.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Thanatos]

Well...I got Roleblocked last night. Damn....I didn't think we'd have one.

I guess that means you should know what I am. I am a vigilante. I killed Insurgent, and I was GOING to kill Nudude. Everything I've done has been to breadcrumb this fact, and the act in accordance with my ability as an asset to the town. I was actually having some second thoughts about claiming when DS came up Mafia, but since I was blocked, and there was no kill, I figured it was best to come clean BEFORE the witch hunt.

[Infinitive]

Well, at least that makes sense.

And I still think the DS lynch went waaaaaaay too fast, but it's a damn good thing we caught a break and lynched scum.

Any comments on Than's roleclaim, people? I kinda suspected vig outta him when he said he was going to roleclaim, but in truth we only have his word to go on and the fact that there was no NK. I'm going to think for a little while about that one before I decide if I believe him or not, though. Anyone else have any thoughts?

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Well...who ever roleblocked Thanatos probably thinks that he is scum..... I wonder why.

Personally, I am still stuck on lynching Nudude. Any counter arguements?

[Infinitive]

Well, in fairness DLS, I've heard of there being Mafia roleblockers too. Plus, Than said he was going to claim yesterday, and no scum would claim a scum role.

Now, there IS something I thought of since my last post- sometimes there's also a Mafia Assassin role, which (I believe) gets a oneshot ability to take out someone once in the game. That could account for the two kills on night 1 and 1 kill this night.

Than, I'd like to hear the list of reasons for why you killed Insurgent. He hadn't even really pinged my scumdar yet at that point, so I'm wondering why you decided that he deserved a brief and bloody end.

[Nudude]

The sole basis of you thinking I'm scum is that I didn't immeditaely investigate DS. I was the first one to vote for him, and I didn't move my vote even when he was at L1. Doesn't that say anything?

I swapped and changed my votes all through D2, so I had a perfectly good excuse to take him off L-1, and put my vote on someone else.

I really don't know what else I can say.

I also find it very interesting that you are stuck on lynching me. Consider Thanatos for example. I don't believe his role - claim one bit.

Yesterday he said he's going to roleclaim today. What possible advantage could he gain from that? The simple answer is there is no advantage at all.

He needed an excuse to say he was "Role blocked", so he tells everyone yesterday that he was going to role - claim.

Here's the thing though. IF we have a role blocker, why would he block you? You admit your going to role claim, and since it makes no sense for a mafia to role - claim, we can only assume your going to claim a pro - town role. So why would a role - blocker block you? It makes no sense.

I'll make this easy for everyone.

VOTE: Thanatos

If I'm wrong, lynch me tomorrow. I'll vote for myself as the first act of the day.

[Infinitive]

That's a hell of a statement, Nudude. I'm gonna have to think about that for a bit.

[Thanatos]

The sole basis of you thinking I'm scum is that I didn't immeditaely investigate DS. I was the first one to vote for him, and I didn't move my vote even when he was at L1. Doesn't that say anything?

I swapped and changed my votes all through D2, so I had a perfectly good excuse to take him off L-1, and put my vote on someone else.

I really don't know what else I can say.

I also find it very interesting that you are stuck on lynching me. Consider Thanatos for example. I don't believe his role - claim one bit.

Yesterday he said he's going to roleclaim today. What possible advantage could he gain from that? The simple answer is there is no advantage at all.

He needed an excuse to say he was "Role blocked", so he tells everyone yesterday that he was going to role - claim.

Here's the thing though. IF we have a role blocker, why would he block you? You admit your going to role claim, and since it makes no sense for a mafia to role - claim, we can only assume your going to claim a pro - town role. So why would a role - blocker block you? It makes no sense.

I'll make this easy for everyone.

VOTE: Thanatos

If I'm wrong, lynch me tomorrow. I'll vote for myself as the first act of the day.

Well, you are wrong. Makes me wonder, since a scum would know this, and he'd be putting himself on the gallows.

There were a few reason I wanted to claim. First, I wanted to prepare for the possibility of DS being town. If he was, I was dead unless I explained myself. When he came up mafia, I regreted it.

Second, I was kind of hoping the scum would decide to stop my claim and kill me instead of the cop. I know it was a pipe dream, but I had hoped I would distract them. Of course, I'm glad they didn't, since VL didn't investigate anyone, but whatever.

As for why I wanted to kill you, there were quite a few reasons. I was supsicous of you from my very first post. The way you pressed into DLS, who I now think is town, and myself as well as your backing of DS much of the time, was a big factor. I still think your scum, and you're trying to sacrifice yourself to get through 2 days. Tell me, if I live today, and get killed tonight, will you still vote for yourself tomorrow?

As for Insurgent....I was convinced we would kill Liamcool yesterday. Beyond him, I wasn't really sure what to do. I didn't want to pass up my kill, because I had read that, statistically, a jumpy Vig helps the town. I also gave some reasons yesterday, when I talked about how Insurgent was the one who convinced me to stay on DT, and I was pretty suspicious of him, albeit for a bad reason. He also seems like something of a useless townie, and realistically, as good a kill as any. In hindsight, I should have gone with my initial person I wanted to kill, DS, but I chose to let him live.

[Nudude]

I'm going on the record and saying that at anytime this game you a proven to be a vig, I will vote for myself. I'm not sure what brand of scum you are though. Your either a one - shot mafia assassin, or an SK who thought he'd pull a clever stunt by opting out of his NK. But you are scum, I've no doubt.

At no time yesterday did I advocate a lynch. The closest I came was saying that I was so sure DS was scum, that I wasn't moving my vote. If you will remember correctly I took you off L-1 the other day. I wanted people to talk and discuss things, come up with ideas and theories and see who defended who and how the votes moved.

I pressed just about everyone that day, except for VL because I, along with just about everyone else, believed he was the cop, and liamcool, because if I believed VL was a cop, then I must believe his investigation.

It's possible that liamcool is the GF, but it's also possible to flip a coin twelve times and have it comes up heads every single time. Possible, but very unlikely. I've explained a few times why I didn't grill DS, and the only time I really supported him was when he was looking at DLS.

I'll remind everyone how he started the day attacking you, and then you both very quickly moved to attacking DLS. He was quiet after his initial attack on DLS, so I'm not sure how you drew the conclusion I was backing him "Most of the time", when he was hardly there. Your stretching the facts to suit your story.

I didn't know who scum were, just like the rest of the town. So I pushed and watched what happened. I don't believe scum are just going to come out and saying something incriminating, so I had a look at everyone. The whole time I encouraged people to conduct their own investigations and draw their own conclusions, and I still do.

I don't buy your reasons for claiming one bit. If your objective was to sacrifice yourself to try save VL, you could have claimed cop after DS was hammered. You could have said "I'm the vig, and I will be killing "X" tonight, and Y tomorrow", and then simply not gone through with it, rationlising on the chance you pick a scum, they would've had to have killed you to save themselves.

If your sure I'm scum, and you meant it when you said you were willing to sacrifice yourself, why not let us lynch you today, so then everyone will know I'm scum and lynch me tomorrow?

You won't do it, because the truth is your not actually willing to sacrifice yourself, that your actually scum that cooked up a story that makes you look noble for being willing to sacrifice yourself.

Prove me wrong.

[Numenorean7]

Just wanted to let everyone know: I have requested a replacement for charter.

[Infinitive]

Hooookay. There's 7 of us left alive. One is being replaced. That means that there are two people out there who have yet to post. Liam, you haven't posted in ages- speak up please. Gorgon, got any thoughts?

We gotta play smart here, people. If Than is indeed the vig, and will be roleblocked for the rest of the game, we're likely in lynch or lose with a mislynch here. Admittedly, we do have the comfort of knowing that we have a day's buffer between us and that situation, but I'd rather not push it if I can avoid it.

I don't know how to react to Than's roleclaim here. Vig is a very common role in these 12-person games, and we have yet to get a Vig killed or lynched, which means that there's a very good chance that there is one still alive and nominally active in our game. If there's no counterclaim, we might have to accept Than's roleclaim here. If that's the case, he's not scum.

If there IS a counterclaim, things are going to get very interesting very quickly here. At the very least, we need to wait till Charter is replaced before we decide anything based on that roleclaim, because Charter may be the vig.

Otherwise, here's my short list of people I suspect:
Thanatos (for reasons I've discussed ad nauseum)
Nudude

People I feel somewhat suspicious of:
Liamcool (as has been noted repeatedly, he might be the godfather)
DLS- the fact that Liam came up scum has cleared a significant amount of the suspicion I felt toward her. It is possible that the flamewar and general animosity was engineered, but it seems to genuine to me. Barring anything I've missed, I'm all but ready to move her to the cleared list.

People on the neutral list:
Gorgon- Gorgon has been a pretty steady contributor in general, with insightful stuff coming infrequently. It's possible he's just a smooth, confident scum, but I've got no evidence to the fact whatsoever.
Charter- he's been very quiet for a while, but you all know how I feel about Charter. He's noticed most of the troubling things as they've happened thusfar in the game, and his contributions have been great for the town. I'm really sad to see him get replaced.

[Gorgon]

Okay, so Than has claimed blocked vig.

Reasons why this is credible:

- Than hinted often enough that he had a powerrole. He would therefore be a logical choice for a scum roleblocker.

- He's also a logical choice for a town roleblocker, given that enough people have expressed suspicions against him.

- As Infinitive points out, no counterclaim. I'm not counterclaiming, so that leaves only liamcool and charter (or his replacement) as possible counterclaimants.

If he's lying, then ...

- He might be an SK. As has been pointed out, he has exhibited eagerness to go to night. If he is SK, claiming vig is a risky, but high stakes gambit. He could have chosen not to kill last night, or he might simply have been blocked, as he claims.

- He might also be mafia. Less likely than SK, IMO. A mafia member with extra killing powers apart from the standard one nightkill for the mafia group is rare, at best. I don't remember seeing it, but if someone could point to an example of this, it would be quite helpful. Anyway, given that he's not something like that, it's very, very risky to claim vig, knowing that there were two kills on the first night, so the possibility of a counterclaim is all too real.

I'm not entirely sure what to think at this stage, but I lean slightly toward town Than. A reread would probably be enlightening.

Of course, I'm glad they didn't, since VL didn't investigate anyone, but whatever.

What do you mean by this?

It's possible that liamcool is the GF, but it's also possible to flip a coin twelve times and have it comes up heads every single time. Possible, but very unlikely.

It's actually not

that

unlikely. It's just somewhat less likely that he's a GF than a townie.

The odds that VL picked the GF to investigate are 1/10 ... maybe 2/10 if there are two mafia groups with one GF each, but I don't think that's a likely setup.

Given that we have, say 3 scum in all in this game (2 scum is a very unrealistic assumption), the odds that VL picked a townie to investigate are 7/10. This is lowered to 6/10 if there are 4 scum (2 mafia groups, or one 3-person mafia group with 1 SK - although I'm not sure if an SK gives a cop a guilty result). Let's say it's 6.5/10.

These numbers come mostly from gut - I'm no expert at calculating odds, but I think this about right.

DLS- the fact that Liam came up scum has cleared a significant amount of the suspicion I felt toward her. It is possible that the flamewar and general animosity was engineered, but it seems to genuine to me. Barring anything I've missed, I'm all but ready to move her to the cleared list.

You mean DS, not Liam, right? There's no way to read that otherwise so it makes sense. Anyway, I agree with this, for the most part. I don't see DLS and DS as scumpartners, given their history - the flamewar was just ... a little too much for it to be distancing, IMO. I've never had any solid suspicions on DLS anyway. This might change on a reread though. Btw, I recommend every townie do a full reread of the game, now that we know that DS was scum. It's very useful to reread games with added knowledge of people's alignments, especially when they're scum, since one can look for links to other players that might possibly out scumpartners.

[Infinitive]

Yes, Gorgon, you interpreted me correctly. Stupid typo demons.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Alright...so....Nudude is trying to convinve Thanatos to sacrifice himself, promising that if Than comes up town (more specifically, Vig) he will lynch himself tomorrow. Thats about equal to DS saying "these are the people I think are scum, look into them when I come out town." It was his last chance to get our attention, and it just slightly worked.

If there is a mafia-roleblocker, I think it's Nudude. It helps the story that he just made up.

I see Nudude as trying to buy time for the last scum partner whom as of right now, we have no idea who they are. Perhaps we should really look into that more today. Get both of our lynches lined up, just incase something dramatic happens overnight. I feel that today, we should not lynch anyone until we 'know' who their partner is.

[Nudude]

Here's the thing. The logic Thanatos applied yesterday was "I was trying to sacrifice myself to save the cop, so he has one more night of investigations".

So wouldn't it stand to reason he would be willing to sacrifice himself to get a guarunteed scum?

Alright...so....Nudude is trying to convinve Thanatos to sacrifice himself, promising that if Than comes up town (more specifically, Vig) he will lynch himself tomorrow. Thats about equal to DS saying "these are the people I think are scum, look into them when I come out town." It was his last chance to get our attention, and it just slightly worked.

If there is a mafia-roleblocker, I think it's Nudude. It helps the story that he just made up.

I see Nudude as trying to buy time for the last scum partner whom as of right now, we have no idea who they are. Perhaps we should really look into that more today. Get both of our lynches lined up, just incase something dramatic happens overnight. I feel that today, we should not lynch anyone until we 'know' who their partner is.

It's not at all equal. DS was about to get lynched, and said that to save his neck. Here, it's the beginning of the day, no votes, and if anything it makes me look more suspicious, not less.

I doubt there is a mafia role blocker. If there was, it would have made more sense to block VL, thus making him and liamcool look suspicious, while NK Thanatos, a self confessed power role, which was likely a vig/sk given the two NK's on D1?

Also, his N1 kill made no sense at all. VL and liamcool looked more suspicious then insurgent at that time, so if you were going to take a shot in the dark, why not one them? Why did you kill a guy who had just replaced into the game, that no - one had a read on and had made a grand total of four posts? That was your best guess?

It fits better if your an SK, because it's in your best interests to leave suspicious people in play, whereas a Vig taking a shot in the dark would probably go for someone more suspicious than a guy who was in the game just a little over 24 hours?

My vote stands, and as you all know, I'm betting my life on it.

[Nudude]

Here's the thing. The logic Thanatos applied yesterday was "I was trying to sacrifice myself to save the cop, so he has one more night of investigations".

So wouldn't it stand to reason he would be willing to sacrifice himself to get a guarunteed scum?

Alright...so....Nudude is trying to convinve Thanatos to sacrifice himself, promising that if Than comes up town (more specifically, Vig) he will lynch himself tomorrow. Thats about equal to DS saying "these are the people I think are scum, look into them when I come out town." It was his last chance to get our attention, and it just slightly worked.

If there is a mafia-roleblocker, I think it's Nudude. It helps the story that he just made up.

I see Nudude as trying to buy time for the last scum partner whom as of right now, we have no idea who they are. Perhaps we should really look into that more today. Get both of our lynches lined up, just incase something dramatic happens overnight. I feel that today, we should not lynch anyone until we 'know' who their partner is.

It's not at all equal. DS was about to get lynched, and said that to save his neck. Here, it's the beginning of the day, no votes, and if anything it makes me look more suspicious, not less.

I doubt there is a mafia role blocker. If there was, it would have made more sense to block VL, thus making him and liamcool look suspicious, while NK Thanatos, a self confessed power role, which was likely a vig/sk given the two NK's on D1?

Also, his N1 kill made no sense at all. VL and liamcool looked more suspicious then insurgent at that time, so if you were going to take a shot in the dark, why not one them? Why did you kill a guy who had just replaced into the game, that no - one had a read on and had made a grand total of four posts? That was your best guess?

It fits better if your an SK, because it's in your best interests to leave suspicious people in play, whereas a Vig taking a shot in the dark would probably go for someone more suspicious than a guy who was in the game just a little over 24 hours.

My vote stands, and as you all know, I'm betting my life on it.

[Nudude]

Sorry for the double post!

[liamcool]

.

- As Infinitive points out, no counterclaim. I'm not counterclaiming, so that leaves only liamcool and charter (or his replacement) as possible counterclaimants.

I'm not counterclaiming either, so we need Charter now to counterclaim to prove Than as a liar. If we can't until his replacement comes, I think Than is pretty much cleared for now, although we should still look at the possibility of him lying.

Infinitive has made careless mistakes, due to either merely misreading the reading the thread, or merely playing the role of sloppy scum and only reading the thread to see which bandwagons people join, as to pick the most obvious choice in terms of suspicion building for the nightkill.

I would throw a vote on Infinitive, but come night, if he's town, and there are four mafia, we lose. Voting right now due to these mistakes and his eagerness to end the day is tempting but I'm not going to.

FOS: Infinitive

As for Insurgent....I was convinced we would kill Liamcool yesterday. Beyond him, I wasn't really sure what to do. I didn't want to pass up my kill, because I had read that, statistically, a jumpy Vig helps the town. I also gave some reasons yesterday, when I talked about how Insurgent was the one who convinced me to stay on DT, and I was pretty suspicious of him, albeit for a bad reason. He also seems like something of a useless townie, and realistically, as good a kill as any. In hindsight, I should have gone with my initial person I wanted to kill, DS, but I chose to let him live.

Why didn't you go ahead, even though you now know I'm town? If I was your major suspicion during N1, why kill someone else? Insurgent might have convinced you to stay on DT, but there were seven people on that bandwagon, why pick him of all people?

Also, while I'm thinking of it, a fairly obvious (I would hope) but still worthwhile suggestion: Than, if you are a vig, and we get town on the lynch today (god forbid), do not vig on N3. While the chances of getting scum will be 1/3 under those circumstances, I don't like the 2/3 chance of a loss in that case.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Isn't this like liamcool's biggest post? ^^^^^^ O.o

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Hmmm...the chance of Than being a SK instead of a vig is slowly starting to make a bit of sense to me, mostly because of his eagerness to hammer DS despite the small discussion we had about waiting for DS to explain something, which he claimed he didn't see or something like that..... Plus, I agree that his N1 kill didn't make a lot of sense.....

I don't know Nudude....you just look kind of desperate right now.....

[Nudude]

By all means, think about it for yourself and take your time, no rush.

It's impossible to be 100% certain wether or not someone is scum untill they go to the noose, but comparing the stretches of thinking required to justify Thanatos is an Vig, versus how the pieces fit together if Thanatos is an SK, I feel certain he the SK.

I also think of the consequences of being wrong if he is an SK. There are seven players, I'd say 4 townies and 3 scum (2 mafia + 1 SK). Now if we lynch a townie, and Thanatos is an SK, we could lose 3 townies in one day/night, making 1 townie and 3 scum, meaning the the town will almost certainly lose, as the mafia will kill Thanatos, and even if Thanatos picks a mafia to kill, that leaves 1 townie and 1 mafia, which means town lose.

No matter how I look at it, I don't trust Thanatos enough to put the game in his hands. If we lynch Thanatos, we know for a fact only one townie will die tonight, and if turns out we were wrong and he is a vig, you'll have confirmed me as scum (which I'm not!) and will know who to lynch.

The question is, do you trust Thanatos enough to risk only having one townie tomorrow?