Open 54 - Basic 12 Player (over) before 529

[Ether]

1 Andycyca (IH)
1 Shanba (Andycyca)

6 Unvote (Bookitty, Crub, Glork, Patrick, Shanba, Thestatusquo)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

Thought I'd let you guys in on a little secret. As chamber would say: Fuck.

[Andycyca]

As individuals, from town-est to scummiest

Glork & IH
Kitty
Patrick
Crub
TSQ
Shanba

[Crub]

Andycyca
Patrick
Shanba
Bookitty
Thestatusquo
Glork
IH

[IH]

Crub, stop being different and conform to the list of towniest to scummiest.

[Crub]

Before I vote, I want Patrick, Andy, Crub, and Shanba each to make an ordered list of players from "Scummiest" to "Most likely protown." I want to see something.

Just following orders boss.

[Bookitty]

First things first:

I found Ripley's overreaction to Glork to be scummy, Patrick, and it overruled my previous opinion of Crub because it was so over-the-top.

Okay, though I wasn't asked for it, my towniest-to-scummiest list:

• IH
  Glork (both of these should be obvious)
  Patrick: I still don't see anything obviously scummy from him. I have looked a LOT now. I don't rule out that he's experienced enough not to make any obvious mistakes though.
  Shanba: He's actually helped himself a lot with recent posts in my opinion. His response to my original suspicions seemed pretty genuine.
  Andycyca: I don't think he's the most likely scum, but he or Shanba nearly have to be, in my opinion.
  Sikario/TheStatusQuo: I've seen Sikario as scum now so I do have an idea of what to look for. I'm betting I saw him as scum in this game as well.
  Crub: I should have stayed with my original suspicions on the last lynch.

Looking at connections with Patrick, to double-check my read on him as town. Shanba and Patrick don't work as a scumteam, Patrick and Sikario don't work as a scumteam. Hmmm, Crub has a point about Patrick and Andy, but that's one out of the four I think likely, and it's a lot easier in my opinion to see a Crub/Sikario/Andy scumteam than a Patrick/Andy/??? scumteam. I just can't place who that last person would be, given that Crub made this suggestion.

If I've missed something or forgotten something, please point it out.

[Glork]

Could you explain why Shanba/Pat doesn't work as a scumteam, and why Shanba/Siki doesn't work? I seem to have missed something there.

[Crub]

Can I switch bookitty and Shanba around on my list?

I think now Andy/Patrick/Kitty likely, at least kitty was smart enough to stick Shanba in between Patrick and andy on the townie scale.

[Bookitty]

Shanba and Patrick seemed legitimately to be at each other's throats. Additionally, if you try to put Andy into this scumteam, you end up looking at this post and this quote specifically directed at Andy: "I'm seriously wondering whether you are Patrick's scumbuddy or something. Of course, that would invalidate my whole argument against Patrick." Which seems a bit much, even for very confident scum.

Patrick is aware of Sikario's playstyle. I don't see him pressuring Sikario, given Sikario's propensity for weird behavior, with a post like this:

But wouldn't Shanba benefit more from actively, if discreetly, pushing a bandwagon? Let the town lynch itself?

Not sure I understand. Actively pushing a bandwagon suggests a different thing to me than letting a town lynch itself.

I'll tell you why I voted later, advisement's over

Not good enough when we're deadlined in this way. If you have solid reasoning for thinking Elmo is scum, you need to share it now. I'm becoming a bit sceptical.

I think Patrick would have left Sikario alone as much as possible if they were scumbuddies, given the likely bad effects of pressuring him. That's not what happened, so I don't see them as likely scumbuddies.

[Glork]

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Bussing

[Glork]

Also, BooKie, note that Shabna makes the "you two are scumbuddies" suggestion but undermines it in two different ways within that same paragraph (one by saying it invalidates his argument against Patrick, and then by falling back on "you make little sense to me" rather than just sticking with "this is suspicious").

[Bookitty]

Possible. I didn't think it likely. And I'm sure it's not the case with Sikario, because Sikario tends to vote himself pretty much whenever he's under pressure as town or scum, and I think Patrick would probably be aware of that fact.

As I've said before, I don't have any true read on Patrick's alignment, because he's one of those people who always look town to me. I'm presenting my opinion, but it's only my opinion, and as such I could always be wrong. I was wrong about Ripley, so take it for what it's worth.

And on preview, I see you've addressed the Shanba issue specifically. I do have the sense that Shanba was pursuing Patrick throughout the game, and not just in that post, though I can't check that at the moment (I will in a sec). If I'm correct in my recollection, it would seem pretty odd that Shanba would specifically tunnel on his buddy when there were other suspects available.

[Bookitty]

Patrick and Glork look very protown to me, as they are encouraging discussion. Shanba is the only one giving me scummy vibes, like he's trying to make up a distancing scene with anyone jumping on wagons.

Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you think Shanba is scum distancing himself from someone?

When you say you’re becoming a bit sKeptical and say that my reason isn’t good enough – what do you mean? You’re shooting one-liners. What do you think about Shanba, what is your opinion?

The reason I'm becoming a bit sceptical, is that so far you haven't really done anything at all, so I don't like how you think you're in a position to be witholding reasons, especially with a deadline. I don't know if your reason is good enough, because I don't know what it is, or even if you have one.

Your suggestion that I'm shooting one liners makes it obvious you haven't read my posts. And I gave an opinion of Shanba only a few posts ago. What's going on here?

i have no idea, but i'll get over it

(a while later)

@Patrick: You say my statement is not true. I say it is. When you vote for appleof88, Ripley had been grilling him and Elmo had his vote on him. It wasn't a bandwagon yet, but it definitely had the potential to become one. Then, when questioned on it, you just back off, but you don't unvote. You sort of defer to Glork adn say that your vote was weak, but you don't go anywhere with it. Then, on Andy: Andy had had a little wagon against him earlier, but you don't vote him (despite you admitting your apple vote was weak). Then, when there's a slight resurgence, with wank and crub indicating they don't like Andy's last post and then you vote for him. You say that there was only one vote and a few drabs of suspicion on him - yes, that's true, but there had been a wagon against him before and it's not inconceivable that it would pick up again. Basically, I just hate the timing of your two votes. Also, you never mention the apple vote.

I recognise that apple could have become a bandwagon, although I don't think that's a big deal early on. I did not back off from it, I just found myself having to explain it several times. Also, I don't think it was any more likely than usual that a bandwagon was going to form on Andy at the time I voted him. I think your "resurgence" thing is exagerated; wank and Crub only expressed disdain at worst, and didn't FoS or vote him. Weaksauce here.

(and as I reread this, yes, it looks vaguely conciliatory. I can see this point.)

And from here it goes into the forest analogy (still think that's nonsense) and the whole defense where this passage is:

@Shanba: OK, I admit I'm awful at scumhunting on D1, I always move at a slow pace in the beginning. But you said Patrick moves "on a wagon just as it's taking off" Unless my memory, my english or my maths are wrong, you were in my wagon earlier. Several people unvoted and when Patrick voted, my "wagon" was (oh my!) 2 votes long, (see votecount on 255) I don't think that's jumping on a wagon just as it's taking off. Besides, he gave a somewhat reasonable reason (duh) behind his vote. Also Patrick strikes me as more protown than you, as he's encouraging good discussion (and before I knew you were sick, I thought you might've been lurking)

So, lessee. Because people had jumped off your wagon, there was no hope of a resurgence, despite the fact that the main pusher (IH) had returned and a couple of people had just expressed suspicion of you? Oh, and also, you agree with Patrick then that you were copying people a lot, and you're not looking for scum. Because of that, Patrick is pro-town because of this and I am therefore scum who is trying to make it look like I'm distancing. Honestly, I can only hope I've misunderstood something, because that logic is insane.

Also, I never said you and patrick are distancing, I commented that you might be trying to frame him on a "distancing" scene. Now I admit that suspicion is wearing off, but still IGMEOY

I cannot believe you honestly think this. I'm seriously wondering whether you are Patrick's scumbuddy or something. Of course, that would invalidate my whole argument against Patrick. Bleh. You make little sense to me.

Which is just a bit more blatant than I think smart OR dumb scum is going to be. Whatever the scumgroup ends up, I'm betting against Patrick/Shanba/Andycyca because of this.

I think Shanba was more or less tunnelling on Patrick. I dunno that bussing would cover that.

[Glork]

Possible. I didn't think it likely. And I'm sure it's not the case with Sikario, because Sikario tends to vote himself pretty much whenever he's under pressure as town or scum, and I think Patrick would probably be aware of that fact.

*shrug*

I was just trying to figure out if you had taken the possibility into account. Obviously, I disagree with you, as Patrick/Shanba/Andy are three of my top four right now. And I'm interested in getting into your head a bit to figure out what you're thinking and how you're thinking it.

[Bookitty]

I can see the logic of Patrick/Andycyca quite easily. If Crub hadn't suggested that link himself I would likely believe a Patrick/Andycyca/Crub scumteam. But I don't see a Patrick/Shanba/Andycyca scumteam based on the posts I've mentioned. Patrick/Andycyca/Sikario MIGHT work. I don't know how someone would handle Sikario if they were scum with him, in all honesty.

If Shanba was distancing with Patrick, it was sustained and believable. In contrast, Shanba largely ignores Sikario, with this being one of the few references:

I've read the Jdodge wagon now, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Sikario is the first vote, but Elmo had been pressuring JD prior to Sikario's vote. Sik never really explains why he voted, but he seems genuine in his conviction that JD is scum.

I can see Shanba/Sikario pretty easily. Andycyca also didn't have a lot to say about Sikario, and it was all noncommittal, so I guess I could also see a Patrick/Andycyca/Sikario scumteam, with Patrick pressuring Sikario and Sikario responding pretty weakly. It's a little risky, but given Sikario's lack of real response to Patrick's pressure, I guess it's possible.

I did a quick reread on TSQ's contributions, and I'm not seeing much to change my mind about Sikario, so I'm sticking with my original listing. Shanba and Andycyca about tied, and the other two much worse. I would be willing to vote any of the four bottom of my list, but I think Andycyca gives us the best information about who to lynch tomorrow.

[Patrick]

I'm having trouble seperating Crub and Shanba as my first and second suspect, though I think there's a good chance that's a false dilemna and that they're both scum. Andy is a close third, TSQ is fourth but really needs to say something, Bookitty is fifth. If I had one chance to call out the scumgroup now, it would be Crub/Shanba/Andy.

I can see the logic of Patrick/Andycyca quite easily. If Crub hadn't suggested that link himself I would likely believe a Patrick/Andycyca/Crub scumteam.

Well, Crub basically made the same point against me that I did against him. I think Andy has been trying to stay on the right side of me most of the game, and the vague way he tries to connect me to Crub may be a way of trying to throw suspicion on me later if Crub is lynched as scum. He draws that connection based on nothing substantial that I can see, but dilutes it alot, as though he doesn't want me to really antagonise me.

As for possibilities including other people. Sikario/TSQ could reasonably be with Andy. Andy doesn't mention him much, which is reasonable for scumbuddies, but also reasonable for town because of the way sikario played. It feels like TSQ is a bit high on his list today, or rather, that there's not much prescedent to him being that high on Andy's list, so that could be a little thing to look out for. I could also see sikario as compatible with Shanba though there's no special connection there, only a slight defence of Shanba by sikario on day 1, and not much from Shanba's end. Crub/sikario is possible, though nothing especially stands out. I don't see Bookitty/sikario as very likely based on a bit of meta of Bookitty. Am unsure on Crub/Bookitty being scum together; I think Bookitty doesn't like busing her partners when she's scum, which makes her Crub vote in 485 weird if they're partners, on the other hand she did help save him later, and he is someone I think is likely to be scum. I think Bookitty if scum is more likely scum with Shanba than Andy because I find her assessment of Shanba a bit lenient today, and she's nudged us slightly towards Andy in her last when she didn't particularly have to. Of course it's possible for her to be with both of them, though I'm still leaning town for her, and I think her analysis today shows more curiosity than the other suspects.

[Glork]

Vote: Andy

Also, *bump*

[Crub]

vote: Andy

Either the scum are not paying enough attention to quick lynch, or Andy is scum.

[Glork]

Unvote

Either the scum are not paying enough attention to quick lynch, or Andy is scum.

Elaborate?

[Crub]

2 votes, by 2 confirmed townies, 3 scum, 5 to lynch.

[IH]

So are you admitting to coaching your scumbuddy to speedlynch?

[Glork]

Crub, have you ever been part of a two-person speedlynch?

Have you ever been part of a three-person speedlynch?

[Glork]

EBWOP: For that matter, have you ever witnessed a two-person or three-person speedlynch?

[Crub]

seen a two-person, not a three-person though, been part of a two-person too from memory.