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Post Post #7075 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:43 pm

Post by Pine »

In post 7070, Desperado wrote:
In post 7055, Pine wrote:Yeah, we are not rehashing my early D1 setup spec, nor are we debating how you would have played the role. Kindly fuck off about those things. I made the decisions I did, and was instrumental in three scum lynches. So go fuck yourself. I *DO NOT DO THAT* as scum.

Lynching scum and softclaiming a strong power-role is ALL I should need to do to bait the kill. Plus, I was only 2-shot, so I had to be strategic about it. If I were full-shot, I'd have claimed full Doc and said 'come at me bro,' but I wasn't.
you and i and everyone else knows that "i never bus as scum" is meta that by definition must be subverted eventually

there's no reason to think this isn't that game
No, it does not necessitate subversion. I do not think bussing is a good idea. Every scumbuddy you bus is another Townie you have to mislynch, and that much longer you need to make no mistakes. It's also not something that can really hurt me as scum, because as Town, I am often wrong. Hell, this game where I nailed half the scumteam right out the gate is an outlier, not a representative sampling of my Towngame. I flat-out think that bussing is a BAD strategy. Not a not-good strategy, a BAD one. This isn't likely to change any time soon. The small amount of Towncred isn't worth it. How much did it help Nacho? Not too fucking much. Maybe it helped him survive D2, but he still got caught.

Okay, granted, I could see some weird-mechanics small game where it becomes a good idea, but the above logic is ESPECIALLY true in large games.

Further, the minute I subvert my ironclad meta, it is no longer ironclad meta that I can rely on.

You'd think holding the same position unflinchingly for six years would get you some credit on a site, but I guess not.
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Post Post #7076 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:50 pm

Post by Desperado »

"i don't buss as scum" isn't "ironclad meta you can rely on"
;)
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Post Post #7077 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:51 pm

Post by Pine »

When you stick to a pattern of behavior for six years, it's pretty ironclad. I didn't suddenly decide to violently break with my scum philosophy.
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Post Post #7078 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:55 pm

Post by Desperado »

also pine why did you lie about nos?

you definitely were pushing dreal hard and only switched to nos after my VCA and after nos followed you on dreal
;)
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Post Post #7079 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:58 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 6315, Desperado wrote:ya pine really mind controlled me in to doing an in depth vca that directly pointed to nos scum

and iirc everyone was too busy barfing all over themselves over dreal while i was doing that

then suddenly nos got lynched

but no, pine is the puppet master
i even called it out in real time lol
;)
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Post Post #7080 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:00 pm

Post by Desperado »

vote: mcmenno
;)
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Post Post #7081 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:00 pm

Post by Desperado »

^this is what i'm doing today and i don't think it's going to change
;)
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Post Post #7082 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:05 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

Votecount 7.3


ive been busy

Andrius
(2): McMenno, drealmerz7
drealmerz7
(1): Pine
McMenno
(1): Desperado

Not Voting
(1): Andrius

5 players, 3 majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2017-03-14 15:33:00)
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Post Post #7083 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:09 pm

Post by Andrius »

VOTE: McMenno
Ever so slightly more comfortable with this.
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Post Post #7084 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:09 pm

Post by Pine »

In post 7078, Desperado wrote:also pine why did you lie about nos?

you definitely were pushing dreal hard and only switched to nos after my VCA and after nos followed you on dreal
The fuck? I didn't lie about him. I'm assuming you're talking about the extensive VCA you did in 6025, so let's go back over the record...
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Post Post #7085 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:11 pm

Post by Pine »

Spoiler: Pine on Nos before 6025
In post 4887, Pine wrote:Maria, though I'm getting cold feet about my read on her. My PoE points to Nos or possibly Andy as the alternative (Plz don't be scum Paladin Andy you break my heart :( )
In post 5487, Pine wrote:
In post 5471, Andrius wrote:Sly can we chat?

What do you think of [Nacho, Desp]?
Because I'm second-guessing myself a bit and don't like it.
In post 5472, SlySly wrote:
In post 5471, Andrius wrote:Sly can we chat?

What do you think of [Nacho, Desp]?
Because I'm second-guessing myself a bit and don't like it.
I got Desp as town.

I was curious as to your case on Nacho.
I also have Desp as Town, with the reservation that if Nacho flips Town, some of the suspicion moves to Desp. A lot of the day-end shenanigans with Creature were quirky behavior from both of them, but I was TRing Desp and SRing Nacho before it, so I stuck with my gut.
In post 5476, Andrius wrote:
In post 3997, Errantparabola wrote:
Votecount 1.26 - FINAL


Creature
(9 - LYNCH): McMenno, gerryoat, Pine, Andrius, Nachomamma8, Ser Arthur Dayne,
Tammy, Fro99er
, Desperado
SlySly
(4): drealmerz7, Zachstralkita, Nosferatu, MariaR
gerryoat
(2):
Toogeloo
, SlySly
Desperado
(1): Firebringer
Zachstralkita
(1): Creature

Not Voting
(0):
17 players, 9 majority.
So I look at this. Bolded is dead town or MASONS.

There's got to be scum off the main wagon not doing anything unless we're thinking that THE ENTIRE SCUMTEAM bussed Creature which would be ballsy since that's 3-4 people chilling on THE wagon.
Literally everyone on your (Sly) wagon could be scum except Maria.
drealmerz is doing some low-impact crap here that's basically opposite of everything I know him for - even if he disagrees ONLY on game theory or is scumreading me despite THE WORLD saying no (Strahd) he's going to be screaming his lungs out regardless. I think he has a decent chance to be scum.
Zach is a scumread for everything I've said before.
Nos is another low-impact says a few good things and disappears.

Toog is a mason. You're town.

Fire is leaning town but I would be 0% surprised if he were scum. I've basically based this entire read on his attitude. The I DONT APOLOGIZE was basically what he said to me when we were talking about being force-replaced and I was like "yeah no I was an ass" and he was like I DONT APOLOGIZE. So I think he's likely town.
The distractability away from the Creature wagon only really makes sense if scum were mostly trying to stay off it until the end. The "Oh fine" attitude of Nacho deciding he didn't have a choice but to bus is a key point in the case against him.
In post 5477, SlySly wrote:
In post 5473, Andrius wrote:Same, re: Desp.

I know.
And then I started thinking about why Nacho busses Creature and commits suicide as scum.
That would actually be moonbeams.
Like, some things are NAI for him. Defusing the Tammy/Andrius was just a NACHO AS A PERSON move so I don't see that either way.

I'm having trouble because his heart isn't here but he's also not pretending it is.
Look how different these are...
In post 3997, Errantparabola wrote:Creature (9 - LYNCH): McMenno, gerryoat, Pine, Andrius, Nachomamma8, Ser Arthur Dayne, Tammy, Fro99er, Desperado
In post 5420, Errantparabola wrote:SlySly (6): Toogeloo, Nosferatu, drealmerz7, Ser Arthur Dayne, Firebringer, Zachstralkita
Scum be on my wagon.
drealmerz, poooosssssibly Nos.
In post 5631, Pine wrote:
In post 5617, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Hmm scumteam of Nacho/Dreamz/Andrius?
Close. I find Nacho/Drealmerz/{Maria or Nos} more likely.
In post 5621, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 5619, drealmerz7 wrote:why are you so insistant that I'm scum? it's silly
I tracked you to Tammy last night.
For reals? That would be super.
In post 5623, Firebringer wrote:
In post 5616, Zachstralkita wrote:
In post 5611, Firebringer wrote: Zach you are either scum trying to detract or misguided town.

Way to pick the only two alignments I could be, nice detective work


do you really have a guilty
yes.
For reals?

Dude, seriously, if I pegged Creature/Nacho/Drealmerz on D1 this goes into my personal history books as my best Towngame ever.

VOTE: Nacho

Drealmerz tomorrow no question.

Choo choo!
In post 5657, Pine wrote:It is, actually. Your scumgame is to take a backseat, let Town destroy itself, and then when it matters, you step in and make a strong push.

The problem isn't that your scumgame is distinct, it's that it doesn't look like your Towngame. You tend to rage and go nuts at scum suspects when you're Town, and you tend to be like a dog with a bone, right or not. The weakness of your scumgame is that you have difficulty manufacturing the same outrage and passion.

This is your scumgame.

Don't sweat it. You're still relatively new to the site. We can work on it if you'd like. You'd be fun to hydra with.

PEdit: Yeah, Andy, that's the way I've been slowly leaning the last day phase or so. D1/early D2 I had Maria, but she's looking more confused and gamesolve-y lately. This is also directly in line with what I saw from Nos's scumgame in NY199, but that's my only prior experience with him, so it isn't super confident.
In post 5708, Pine wrote:I'm reading, drealmerz, I just didn't find what you had to say at all convincing.

My wife does this. If I disagree on something, she seems to think she didn't explain herself well enough the first time, and starts over. Often repeatedly.

Drealmerz. I perceive you to be scum. Deal with it. Don't get butt hurt. If you're Town, prove it with your actions. You've been about as helpful as tits on a bull this game.

PEdit: Agreed, Fire and Gerry all Town due to how the first three lynches went down.

I'm down for a Nos lynch tomorrow.
In post 5834, Pine wrote:Nos's sudden enthusiasm against drealmerz makes me really uncomfortable.

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'd like to see this flip.
In post 5856, Pine wrote:McMenno more likely, but still not probable. I don't like how he's stayed in the shadows, though.

Vote Nos with me. That's the common ground we can agree on.
In post 5866, Pine wrote:Yeah but the old one was like ten hours ago. I'm not buying the shifting reads that quickly.

I just ISOed EP for vote counts. I agree that simply existing on the right wagons means little, but position on those wagons does.

McMenno was among the very first on Creature D1, preceded only by Zach, who wandered off soon after for other votes. He was even the only vote on Creature for a while, and never moved off.
McMenno was among the first on Nacho D2, and stayed consistent on Nacho all day until hammer.
McMenno went right back onto Nacho D3, and rode it all the way to a second scumlynch.

So a McMenno SR proposes that McMenno has done NOTHING but bus. I don't buy that.

Need to ISO Zach. My TR of him is stale, and I'm concerned he's coasting. Noticed that early vote on Creature and moving off of it. Need to see if that was just an RVS vote or whether it looks like distancing.

Present SRs are drealmerz and Nos, investigating SAD and Zach. McMenno investigation concludes Town. Maria investigation concludes Town.
In post 5947, Pine wrote:@Bloc: I propose that Nos is the lynch for today. I'm not 100% on him, but my gut says go for it. Besides, we seem not to have a vig and there's no fucking way he should get to LYLO.

PEdit: lol, drealmerz just tripping over himself to discredit anyone now. Dude, the vote isn't even on you right now. We're on Nos.
PEdit2: Touché, Paladin Bro
In post 5939, Pine wrote:
In post 5929, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 5927, Zachstralkita wrote:He doesn't give a fuck about [expending effort] when it's not toward something he's lynched, which is bad if he's wrong on a read

I haven't seen scum drealmerz.. if I'm not mistaken he's been town in all the games I've completed with him and he's acted exactly like the reasons he is being lynched for

It's not scum behavior imo
I can't take your posts seriously anymore. You just derail every wagon and the one wagon where you pushed (slysly) was town.

"Trust me dreamz is 100% town" "I haven't ever seen him as scum but trust me!".
See, this is why I'm beginning to suspect Zach. It wasn't the VCA thing, that just reminded me that Zach was in the game and I hadn't seriously considered him in a while.

A quick skim of Zach's ISO supports this suspicion, as he seems to be pushing pretty much any wagon that moves except the ones that are productive. He's gone after Fro99er, Sly, Fire, Andy, McMenno, and now me. That's like, a full Town roster of votes, except his RVS vote on Creature. He's been keeping to himself, but suddenly has out-of-nowhere case on me as soon as I express doubts about him? Nahhhhh.

{Nos, drealmerz, Zach} take it to the bank.

Unless I'm wrong. I am often wrong.

PEdit: I am tentatively interested in that voting bloc. I'm not 100% on everyone in it, but I'm at least 75% on all of them.
In post 6021, Pine wrote:
In post 5995, Desperado wrote:
In post 5947, Pine wrote:@Bloc: I propose that Nos is the lynch for today. I'm not 100% on him, but my gut says go for it.
Besides, we seem not to have a vig and there's no fucking way he should get to LYLO.

PEdit: lol, drealmerz just tripping over himself to discredit anyone now. Dude, the vote isn't even on you right now. We're on Nos.
PEdit2: Touché, Paladin Bro
SAD said he got lost a shot on his BP and there's no evidence of an SK, pretty sure that's a vig?
Forgot about that. More likely a 1-shot power? Good point.
In post 5999, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:We should just do points if everyone in the bloc ranks those 5.

8 points for #1
5 points for #2
3 points for #3
2 points for #4
0 points for #5

And everyone agrees to vote the one with the highest points.
This idea has some merit, but I won't be approving or participating in the lynch of McMenno or Gerry, and I don't care how many points they get.

I'm starting to have cold feet about Drealmerz. My entire case is built on him faking outrage as scum and real raging as Town. This is feeling more real the more I consider it.

I'd really prefer Nos today.

VOTE: Nosferatu

Dropped into a separate post and spoilered because there's just so much of it. Shit, Desp, some of that was even directed at YOU by NAME. So I don't get your whole schtick about me not leading the lynch on Nos, we were going full bore on Drealmerz and I got cold feet, pulled it off him and pushed Nos. So the narrative of Pine!scum pulling off an easy Town!Drealmerz lynch and onto a scumlynch of Nos when I've already got the credit of two scumlynches under my belt is just ludicrous.
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Post Post #7086 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:13 pm

Post by Andrius »

I did my own research awhile ago and Pine did prefer Nos while I was trying to wrangle support for dreal.
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Post Post #7087 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:13 pm

Post by Pine »

In post 5848, Desperado wrote:
In post 5590, Errantparabola wrote:
Votecount 2.14 - FINAL


SlySly
(8 - LYNCH): Toogeloo, Nosferatu, drealmerz7, Firebringer, Zachstralkita, MariaR, Ser Arthur Dayne, McMenno
drealmerz7
(3): Andrius, Pine, SlySly
Nachomamma8
(1): gerryoat
Pine
(2): Nachomamma8, Desperado

Not Voting
(1): Tammy

But really tho if we just lynch the sly wagon one by one the game will end I'm pretty sure

unvote
Vote: nosferatu


15 players, 8 majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2017-02-17 19:57:00)
In post 5850, Desperado wrote:wow that quote failed completely

But really tho if we just lynch the sly wagon one by one the game will end I'm pretty sure

vote: nosferatu
Unless you're talking about this "VCA," in which case go fuck yourself. 3/4 of the above still applies, and you can't really call "hurr, let's lynch off this one wagon" VCA.
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

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Post Post #7088 (ISO) » Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:15 pm

Post by Andrius »

Still ok with lynching everyone on the SlySly wagon.
Still ok with lynching everyone outside the voting bloc.
Still don't care that dreal disagrees with everything above.
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Post Post #7089 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 3:53 am

Post by drealmerz7 »

In post 7075, Pine wrote: I do not think bussing is a good idea...
I don't buy this paragraph at all. I'm sure you've seen busing be advantageous and be a good idea. Numerous times.

Busing is agreat idea, when it is a great idea. Generalizing like this is bad.
balance among all things
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Post Post #7090 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:08 am

Post by Desperado »

In post 7087, Pine wrote:Unless you're talking about this "VCA," in which case go fuck yourself. 3/4 of the above still applies, and you can't really call "hurr, let's lynch off this one wagon" VCA.
no, i wasn't talking about that

i was talking about the multiple posts where i analyzed the vote counts....
;)
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Post Post #7091 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:09 am

Post by Desperado »

In post 6038, Desperado wrote:1.6...SAD L-2 with Creature and Nacho both not voting. McMenno-Fro99er-Pine-Andrius-Dreal-SlySly-gerry. Definitely possible this was an all town on town RVS wagon with zach, maria, and nos all off the wagon.

1.12...Desperado-Nacho-Creature-Andrius on gerry. Makes me feel good about Andrius, definitely don't see 3/4 and probably not 3/5 scum voting in succession.

1.15...Gerry wagon is now Nacho-Creature-Andrius-SlySly-Desperado-Toogeloo-dreal and zach and nos are 1/2 on an andrius counterwagon. I don't understand the purpose of a hard cross bus here between Nacho and gerry when Creature is sitting there being obvscum and everyone already realizing it because McMenno has already started building his case. Gerry's town.

1.16...Creature wagon appears. McMenno-Fire-Pine-SAD-gerry-SlySly, SlySly counter wagon is zach-desperado-drealmerz right now. I do not see any scum on that initial Creature wagon.

1.20...Creature wagon still strong at 5, nos/zach on Andrius, Nacho/Andrius on gerry. Really leaning towards nos/zach here given...

1.23...The Sly wagon reaches its peak at dreal-SAD-zach-fro99er-toog-nos. Zach and Nos both jump from a 2 man Andrius wagon to the SlySly counterwagon while Creature's wagon starts to erode.

1.24...Creature and SlySly tied at 5, McMenno-gerry-pine-Andrius-SAD vs dreal-zach-toog-nos-maria. This is THE vote count, in my opinion. Everyone on Creature was town and there are four unflipped players on the Sly counter. If we started 13v4 the last two scum are almost certainly in {deal, zach, nos, maria}.
In post 6045, Desperado wrote:2.2...Nacho wagon builds early with Fire-gerry-pine-mcmenno. At the time I had Nacho as town so this gerry-pine-mcmenno bloc felt sketchy but going 2/2 simply doesn't make sense. Bussing Creature, sure. But Nacho is a strong player, he had an incredibly important role, and the Tammy is the queen of waffling so her being suspicious of Nacho shouldn't have been enough to make them buss.

2.3...Pine counterwagon builds, maria-nacho-nos-toog. {Maria, Nos} has one scum.

2.7...No luck on Pine so now the SlySly counter makes a comeback, SAD-Zach-Toog-Nos. I feel like a broken record here but Zach and Nos have both been consistently countering scum wagons with SlySly. If there's 4 scum there is definitely one in {Zach, Nos}, if there are 5 then they are both scum.

2.8...Nacho and Sly tied at 5, Fire-Pine-McMenno-gerry-Tammy vs zach-toog-nos-dreal-SAD. I still do not understand why Toog was anywhere near this wagon...SlySly didn't fit the profile he'd been building AND his mason partner was pushing Nacho. Four unflipped players here with dreal/zach/nos all repeats from the D1 counter to Creature. SAD was on Creature that time.

2.9...Zach overtakes Nacho with andrius-slysly-desperado-maria. Fire switches from Nacho to SlySly, Zach unvotes. Need to check the context on this one.

2.11...Zach goes back to SlySly with Pine-McMenno-gerry-Andrius all sticky on the Nacho wagon and SlySly-Desp-Maria on Zach. The SlySly wagon is now Toog-nos-dreal-SAD-Fire-Zach and the evidence continues to mount.
pine you're the swing vote
;)
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Post Post #7092 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:11 am

Post by Desperado »

6025 wasnt the VCA it was just the vote counts colored in

and I looked at all those posts and I still believe you were focused on dreal and your turn on nos for being enthusiastic about the dreal lynch you were pushing doesn't make a lot of sense
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Post Post #7093 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:14 am

Post by Pine »

In post 7089, drealmerz7 wrote:
In post 7075, Pine wrote: I do not think bussing is a good idea...
I don't buy this paragraph at all. I'm sure you've seen busing be advantageous and be a good idea. Numerous times.

Busing is agreat idea, when it is a great idea. Generalizing like this is bad.
No. I haven't seen it be a good idea nearly as often as I've seen it be a bad idea. The last time I engaged in bussing was six years ago in NY 130, and that was because the person in question was an atrocious VI who was a detriment to our team and later got banned. That's it. I've seen bussing backfire MANY times, and have not a single time regretted the practice of declining to bus.

Look, we can discuss this post-game, even take it to MD, but I feel my meta is incredibly well-established, to the point where if you're ever going to trust someone's meta on something it's mine on this.

Desp at this point I don't even know what you're talking about. I Ctrl+F'd your ISO for mentions of Nos and that's what I got. Can we just let it be that we arrived at Nos=scum realizations independently and when there were more viable lynches on the table?
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Post Post #7094 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:15 am

Post by Desperado »

yes, at least for today
;)
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Post Post #7095 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:31 am

Post by Pine »

Okay, so let's lynch drealmerz.
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
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Post Post #7096 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:47 am

Post by Desperado »

like i said you have the swing vote right now
;)
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Post Post #7097 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:53 am

Post by Pine »

Yeah, and I'd rather not lynch either of those. Drealmerz makes me happier
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
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Post Post #7098 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:13 am

Post by Andrius »

I mean, I can swing dreal.
But I want this dead more.

Don't get me wrong, lynching dreal would make me "happier".
Every time I think to myself 'EP doesn't have the guts to put a Limited Vig on the scumteam' I remember THE THING and how 3/4 of the design team for this game just witnessed scum with a 1shot Vig. Incidentially, this game ALSO has a bulletproof-vest-giver as well, which was in THE THING.
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Post Post #7099 (ISO) » Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:17 am

Post by Andrius »

You know, town having three pseudo-protective roles makes more sense if scum have an extra bullet.
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