Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[Aubrey]

I think Cass and BV might be town...BV seems to be attempting to game solve, and the attack from Cass just recently seems to stem from a frustrated townie who can't get him to understand their position. That argument isn't an argument i see scum proposing against someone like that.

[BlackVoid]

Read through the game yet again and I'm no longer confident that Hap is mafia. I've quickly skimmed through four of his scumgames and while he does have an abrasive edge to his posting, the way he was frustrated at being suspected for bad reasons rang extremely genuine to me. Also, I've been a conf-baised on Hap but it's just starting to sink in that a lot of the suspicion of Hap makes no sense and it's really odd that every single player in the game suspects him. Re-reading Hap's case on KidAmn, I think Hap's point that KidAmn is calling Creature's meta non-alignment-indicative but voting him anyways is the kind of argument I can see Hap making which was clearer on a review. Hap's point about Fitz actually could just be something TL players find reasonable since outoforder kept going on about it this morning and I'm pretty sure he's town. That leaves Hap's case against Casielle and I thought it was bussing at that point but it's completely reasonable for him to think that Cassielle's thought process is bullshit so I get that. Bottomline, I think Hap is more likely town than not and I'd really prefer we don't lynch him today.

Moving on, I think Hap was wrong about all of KidAmn, Cassielle, and Fitz. While I understand the inconsistency that Hap pointed out w.r.t KidAmn, I think he was missing the fact that KidAmn even deciding to go through Creature's meta to undercut his own argument was townish on his part. There's also the fact that KidAmn's interpretation of this game is a tiny bit off from reality which shows when he was accusing me and Rels of going "ham" on counterwagons when I didn't do anything of that sort and Rels hadn't even posted. I buy KidAmn's ATE because he's a newbie and he doesn't seem capable of high-level deception.

Cassielle has moved onto being a townread mostly from how Aubrey is interacting with her. I can't see a scum player calling their partner "the mighty Cass" or suggesting that me going after Cass is a towntell because he's almost assuming that she's town in the process. Looking back, there were several points where Cass reacted in a way that mirrored my thoughts like calling Hawk town for his introspective posts and saying that KidAmn's ATE looks town. I actually agree with Rels now that her play is way too chaotic and over the top that it doesn't make any sense as scumplay.

Outoforder is still one of my stronger townreads. While I was midly annoyed with his play today, I think just scumreading me for not grasping what he's saying about Fitz is borne more out of townie frustration. I can't see scum scumreading people they are trying to persuade because they got pissed. That combined with his play during the beginning of the game makes me fairly confident that he's town.

So, Hap, KidAmn, Cass, Outoforder are town for sure.

I think Hawk is probably town. The way he kept analyzing Hap and Rels combined with his walls have me townreading him but he hasn't been much of a factor in the day's lynch. He dismissed stuff as meta while becoming convinced by my case while always intending to vote Hap. I need to re-read him more in-depth.

I think HavingFitz is probably town. Part of my read was based on how he also suspected Hap but I do still think his suspicion of Hap based on Outoforder and Rels suspecting him, and then asking probing questions about the group dynamics at TL makes me lean town. I'd like a more substantial position on Aubrey though who I'm very confident is scum. He seemed to be in your scumleans at first but then becomes a null-read.

Rels is a player I would like to be town but I'm not quite sure why he's set on lynching Hap when he doesn't seem sure about it at all. This contrasts with his insistence that 30 hours is enough time to swing a lynch so deadline concerns are not the primary reason.

I didn't like that Creature was following the thread closely enough to quickly answer a question I had within seconds but disappeared the moment I asked him about Aubrey. There's also a lot of stuff that's missing that I've seen from town-Creature in a previous game. The active, engaged scumhunting. I just don't see why he's disinterested in the game. I don't think Hap is scum anymore so I'd like some help from you gamesolving if you are town here.

Doomfeathers is a player I've completely forgotten about. He hasn't been posting at all and I need to look over his ISO which I've been putting off because of how many quote-walls there are which gives it a disjointed feel. I don't like that he's been baiting Hap though.

Kop has been a complete non-entity. He made a couple of posts I liked but could very well be scum.

Aubrey is scum for all the reasons I've listed so far. His latest discrediting of my read on him by saying that I won't change my mind even after reading his ISO feels pre-emptive and I think he's actively trying to play with Cassielle's frustrated feelings with me.

I don't like that Hap is the only option today and I want to provide a counter-option. I'm willing to work with people to switch elsewhere but I'm putting my vote on my top suspect. We have a little more than a day left and everyone should check in by that time.

VOTE: Aubrey

[BlackVoid]

To summarize my reads:

I have Hap, KidAmn, Cass, and outoforder as town. Aubrey as scum. I need to re-read Hawk, Fitz, Doom, Kop, Rels, and Creature more closely which I'm going to do right now to see how they interacted with Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

I don't want a Hap lynch today. If he's town, he's very useful and once he finds more time, I think he can give a lot of good content. I wouldn't be opposed to a utility lynch on Kop if I can't get Aubrey today. He's not a strong townread and has flown under most people's radars.

[cassielle]

ok, theres some exceptions to this rule, but about 80% of the time, a last-minute near-deadline lynch switch will land on town
it doesnt matter if the earlier wagon is also on a townie (it's not unlikely that it is, in fact)
fact is: its more likely to be on scum than the wagon people end up panicvoting for to avoid no-lynching

this is one of the reasons why i said early on: hapa is todays lynch barring exceptional circumstances. its why i said: if there is any resistance on rels, jump back to hapa (this one is actually really involved reasoning, if you want the full thought process, ask)

unless its a rels wagon we settle on i dont want to see town scrambling together last minute to push some slot half of them dont even damn well agree with lynching, and rels is only good because of the associatives we grab along the way (helping gamesolve) and my high-confidence scumread -- its STILL a bad idea

a d1 lynch has a VERY high chance of hitting a townie to begin with, we dont need to be increasing that chance further!

[cassielle]

like really idk why blackvoid isnt being scumread at this point

its like scumplay dressed up in townie activity and convoluted reasoning that, at a glance, passes for town

a kop "utility" lynch for example is almost assured to be a mislynch (as are the vast majority of policy/"utility" lynches), we get no associatives worth a damn due to the players low activity, and in general it does not help a town wincon
at best it doesnt outright /hurt/ a town wincon

but almost any other slot would be a better choice, period, and any slot not already widely agreed on is nearly as bad because
town is not going to have a full dayphase's back and forth on what that lynch means if it flips red or green, who is interacting with it in certain ways, etc -- all of that analysis has to be pulled from the ass on d2
town is not going to be largely of the same mind, but many will withhold their complaints on the basis of not ending d1 with a nolynch, meaning a lot of valid reasons not to hit the slot are not going to be heard
scum will be able to hide in the self-kicking conga line that results from this clusterfuck by simply saying early "you know i DID have my doubts i just didnt want a mislynch"

really i have to emphatically say "NO DO NOT DO THIS THING"

[cassielle]

EBWOP "you know i DID have my doubts i just didnt want a nolynch"

[BlackVoid]

I don't know. Rels is a tossup for me. I like the points he raised about Aubrey and I like that he sees where I'm coming from. Someone I wouldn't want to lose if town. But I'll re-read ISO and let you know what I think.

It's not true that last minute deadline wagons always hit town. I can pull up plenty of examples for you where a deadline wagon hit scum. Mini 1843: D2 wagons were between Jaack and Hoopla for the most part. They were both town. I backed off of Hoopla at the last minute and helped her push a Sotty7 lynch through. She was scum. D4 wagons were all over the place. Creature was under pressure. At the last minute, I changed my mind and pushed through a MariaR lynch instead. She was scum. I'm sure you can find lots of examples of deadline wagons hitting scum.

The point is I don't think Hap is flipping scum nor do I think he's an acceptable loss if town. Aubrey is lock-scum and the one player I have no question will flip scum. Kop

might

flip scum or town but even if town, that'll remove a question mark in most people's minds and help with wagon analysis. He's not contributing anything anyways. Lurkscum are usually good deadline targets. I'll go over Rels' ISO and tell you what I think. In the meantime, give me your thoughts on these two players.

[BlackVoid]

You do realize that I replaced in three days ago and the game is forty-five pages long and many dense walls. I barely had time to settle into my reads and push them and analyze reactions and actually even read the game completely. Of course any change I make is going to cutting it pretty close. I've been working as fast as I can since replacing in. I've been reading and looking over other games constantly whenever I could find free time. I've had no chance to interact with Hap at all to see if my read there could be wrong. To dismiss all that and just keep calling me scum is frustrating. I'm trying to work with you here.

[cassielle]

ok, when i talk deadline wagons hitting town? i mean d1

on d1 you have no info, all cases are weak, theres no confirmed alignments, theres no associatives
your examples are both d2+

even if you did have a d1 example: i said 80%, not 100%. in other words, i never claimed it ALWAYS hits town
so this is misrepping -- again

[BlackVoid]

Quite frankly, I don't mind a no lynch. In this setup, we're starting with an even number of players. So, no lynching means this goes one of two ways:

- We get to odds and we stay at odds as no scum die in the night.
- We get to odds and move back to evens as a scum hits a PGO and dies in the night.

Either scenario is not bad. If we indeed move back to evens, we at least have a free scum death. In the worse scenario (no free scum death), we stay at odds. No lynching in this setup doesn't carry the same connotations and detriment as in a normal 13P game. That said, I'm not advocating no lynch as a first option. Just that it isn't the worst outcome mechanically in this setup.

Oh ffs, I'm not "misrepresenting" you. Most D1 wagons hit town. There's no reason to believe that a D1 deadline wagon will hit town any more than a regular D1 wagon.

[cassielle]

Oh ffs, I'm not "misrepresenting" you. Most D1 wagons hit town.

There's no reason to believe that a D1 deadline wagon will hit town any more than a regular D1 wagon.

so youre saying that no matter how much consideration is given to a slot over the course of a full dayphase, it's always effectively random? huh, makes me wonder why we dont always just wagon someone to the gallows in RVS or no-lynch
oh yeah because that would be absolutely worthless. EVERY TIME

also your argument in favor of a no-lynch on d1 is so anti-town im done tbh

lynch hapa this dayphase, and push bv hard when hapa flips red, i got nothing else to say here

[KidAmn]

"i dont think hap is an acceptable loss as town" - the dude has gone completely silent and is a few hours from being forcereplaced while posting elsewhere

"I don't know where kid is getting the idea me and Rels are going ham on counterwagons" - currently voting Aubrey a completely unviable wagon

Hmmmmmmmmmm

[KidAmn]

Kinda get the feeling Hapa accepted he's the lynch and decided not to drop any more crumbs tbh

[BlackVoid]

If you legitimately think I'm scum trying to get a wagon off my buddy 24 hours before deadline when I could have just let KidAmn get lynched, I don't know what to tell you. If you try and work with me here, I'm fine looking over Rels and discussing. If not, then we're done.

[BlackVoid]

"I don't know where kid is getting the idea me and Rels are going ham on counterwagons" - currently voting Aubrey a completely unviable wagon

Well, I'm impressed with your ability to time travel and figure out that I'd be voting Aubrey in the future when you said that.

Why if I'm scum with Hap did I derail your wagon and try to get one on Hap? (By the way, this was before I voted Aubrey).

[BlackVoid]

So, Rels' interactions with Aubrey before today are fairly mundane and nothing rules them out as being partners. Aubrey saying that "if Hap flips town and Rels is scum, you should be looked into" is I think a partner-y interaction where he knows that that's the outcome. From Rels' end, I don't know if I agree with what he's saying about Aubrey "deflecting" and I don't think he really understood the depth of my Aubrey read. "Sitting on Hapa, not moving" is not even close to why I suspect Aubrey. I don't like the dichotomy he presents that KidAmn/Hap are mafia because I think they are both town and he scumreads Aubrey but is fairly okay with a Hap lynch. I don't know. I could see him as scum and would vote there if it's between Hap and Rels. But I want to take a shot at getting Aubrey today and would like to hear back from Rels about whether he's willing to help me lynch Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

Going to bed right now. Please don't lynch in the next few hours. I'll check back in the morning. By the way, there's no reason we all have to agree on a single lynch. Counterwagons are good and all the people voting vanity wagons need to show up and discuss options so we can get a viable counterwagon going. I'm not hugely opposed to Rels but I think we can do better with Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz -

lynch Aubrey with me.

[BlackVoid]

Your major concern with Hap was how he jumped on your wagon after Aubrey, right? Well, I have a hard time seeing him post the way he did towards the end of the day and I'm super-confident Aubrey is scum so I think you're looking at scum who voted you with weak reasoning and town wagoning right after as opposed to the other way around. If you have misgivings about Hap, you're right. The way Aubrey was taking on an almost consulting role where he just pops in and offers comments while never taking stances or pushing anyone has transparent scum motivation. We don't need everyone to vote Hap anyways. Join me here and we'll see how the VC turns out in the end.

[Aubrey]

.....

[Aubrey]

On one hand I find this absurd. On another, I'm actually interested in seeing if you can successfully pull off my mislynch today.

[cassielle]

.....

yup

too bad he didnt try to swing the ml on me instead
one awful game i wouldnt need to worry about, and hed be p much obvscum come d2

but at this stage i cannot even be bothered with this game the way bv is driving it so w/e

im just gonna vote bv come d2 and prodge till eod unless im nk (note: this is not informative as to whether or not i will be arming)

p-edit: yeah thats where im sitting

[BlackVoid]

Posts like this are the reason I'm very hesitant to lynch anyone that's a voice of reason among the town. With you and KidAmn both being town posting like you have been, and outoforder barely even caught up, I'm at least hoping that once Hap has time to play, he picks up his game tomorrow.

Ten minutes of looking over my two scumgames and a sample of my towngames will tell you that this is blatantly my towngame. I don't think I've ever driven games as scum.

[Aubrey]

Like he townreads Hapa....and lock scums me, but I've been constantly saying how I doubt Hapa's lynch a bit. If one scum-reads me, then they should also think "holy shit, maybe Aubrey is busing his partner while trying to disband it at the same time." And he's basically town reading him similar to all the points I raised, commented, and asked.

lol I. Can't. Even. What's worse he could actually pull this off maybe.