Open 19 - Nightless (Over?) before 430

[Skruffs]

I saw that after I posted.

[Thok]

I'm waiting for something to happen elsewhere.

@Skruffs-I don't really agree with your assessment of any of the three things you brought up as potential scum slips.

Which of these three possible scum slips is the most endamning?

Elias:
Upset at the idea of Oman(scum) being modkilled, said that midkilling a townie would end the game at deadline.

I've been repeatedly saying that this incident is one of my reasons for thinking Elias is protown.

Thok:
Claims to have known Tony (scum)'s role at the end of September.

As I said, at the time, that was a typo (and fairly clearly a typo). If you want me to put in a bunch of effort, I can hunt down similar typos in other game I was in a while back. (There's a couple of them in Chrono Trigger mafia, for example, and I was town there. I also argued in that game that such slips don't really work as scum tells for me.)

Guardian:
Angry at setael(Scum) for 'bussing' him.

I'm pretty sure that I'm the person that Guardian used the term bussing on (or at least that's the one I remember most prominently.) Obviously, Guardian and I can't both be scum.

[Skruffs]

I don't think of ANY of them as scum slips, however, Guardian and Elias got into a tiff about using each other's slips as scum tells for each other and not themselves, and I thought it was worth asking abuot

[Skruffs]

Why would you say that 'claering' oman would make Elias pro-town?

If Elias (as scum) said that, and is lynched and revealed as scum, it then 'clears' oman, because he 'slipped' in saying he was townie.

Did he accuse you of it? Okay, it was aroudn the time Setael got lynched so I Wasn't sure - I originally had a question mark in that parenthesis.

Anyways... I'm not using either of the slips as a REASON, but, Elias's can't (imo) be used as a reason to make him TOWN, because it was so blatant, and then he made an effort to 'cover it up'.

This, especially afte distancing from R-Oman-us for a good part of the game, then switching around (after a supposed reread) and saying he is a townie?

[Thok]

I really don't like how Guardian is trying to push at Elias for what is fairly obviously a gut townie reaction to a proposed modkill. I can't see how scumElias's reaction to "modkill coming soon" is to started panicking and yelling at the mod about trying to make town lose.

Moreover, I find it likely that Elias is wrong about his Oman read, and if Oman is scum then Guardian's tell doesn't apply. I'm actually considering the possibility that Guardian and Oman are scum together. I've mentioned the whole "Guardian deflecting people from Romanus" before.

(I've quoted the whole post for completeness. Some of the second paragraph of the post is not directly relevant to Elias.)

Basically, my argument for why I consider Elias's reaction to the possible Oman modkill as a town tell is that I thought it was clear that the post was a gut reaction, and as a gut reaction Elias's post makes more sense to me as a post by a protown player who didn't assess Oman's role properly.

[Simenon]

Vote Count

Guardian (1)- Elias_the_thief
Thok (1)- Guardian
Elias_the_theif (1)- Skruffs

[Thok]

Mod, I unvoted Guardian in post 2113. I would like to keep it that way for the time being.

[Guardian]

Back from vacation. Pleased at extension. Maybe I'm going to reread this game..! But not tonight .

[Guardian]

This is going to come in drips. I figure I might as well start by responding to this.

@Guardian

1. If you think "annoying" is a scum tell for me, you should take a look at Board Games or Mafia versus Werewolves.

I'll look.. if true, that's annoying...

2. The lack of arguments from you is getting repetitive, especially when you've been asked to provide arguments.

:shrug: I play a lot by intuition anyways... cases are scummy, and usually lead me wrong. If I go with what I think first, works better. I can try and explain that through words, but sometimes it doesn't amount to a 'case'.

Repeatedly claiming I'm scummy doesn't make it true, just like repeatedly claiming IH was scummy didn't make that true either.

*zing*. Me being wrong in the past or using flawed argument style doesn't make you town, either.

Forget about whether or not it makes you look scummy or even how the lack of arguments suggests that you are probably wrong about me if you are protown; if you can't make an argument, nobody will ever listen to you.[/mafia advice for the day]

I never really understood this/figured out how to incorporate it into my play. People should figure out that I am right or wrong, why do I need to waste lots of time and make arguments?

3. At this point you seem to be leaning mostly on your intuition. Given that your intuition has been mostly wrong the entire game, now isn't the time to started leaning on it.

I'm hoping that'll come around.

(And frankly, this is part of why I'm suspicious of you; if you are town, given what I've seen in other games you've played, isn't your intuition not supposed to suck this much?)

Usually. I've only been dead on for 1/3 scum, and that disappoints me. Hopefully this will come around .

4. This is a minor point, but stop repeating the lie that you never were suspicious of Elias, or at least include the caveat "I always had a protown read of Elias, except for that time I spent attacking him because of his reaction to the threatened Oman modkill". I also find it hard to see how Elias could be seen to be playing of of a script, or even why that should be considered a scum tell (remember, that was Tony's primary attack on IH.)

. I was suspicious of him for what, 2-3 pages in a 90 page game? Maybe I'll add an asterisk from now on, if it matters to you...

5. I agree that Skruffs seems more interested in hunting for scum than Elias.

Oh do you?

Skruffs has a much better voting record than Elias especially when you take into account the timing of votes (Skruffs pushed the john lynch when it looked like it might disappear, and Skruffs pushed on Setael fairly early on in her lynch).

How convenient buddying if Elias is lynched today.

Most of my reason for thinking Elias is protown solely has to do with his interaction with known scum (his fight with Romanus, his reaction to the Oman modkill, and Setael's suspicions of him) and to some extent the lack of a VitR vote when VitR and Tony were the potentially deadline lynchees and his suggestion that me/Guardian were cleared yesterday when we obviously weren't.

I think you underestimate Elias's scum play. He told me once (and I think his sig has) that he has lost, maybe 1 game as scum? I wouldn't put it past him at all, and your easy acceptance of that as a town tell bugs me.

6. The buttering up to me in your last paragraph is pointless.

Buttering up to you? lol. I want you dead . But, with the most information you have in the game, I'd like for you to not be 100% focused on explaining why I am scum and Elias and Skruffs are town, because if you are town and are lynched, that doesn't give me much of anything to go on for tomorrow, and drawing from players who were dead for days is bad since they had much less information.

Moreover, given your current line of play it seems extremely unlikely to me that I'll be lynched today, because as things are going, you are undermining any reason for a wagon on me by yourself.

I really don't understand this at all. Maybe it has to do with the "not making cases" thing? I think you should be lynched, I've said so, I've sketched why, and asked for help. Why does that make it

unlikely

for you to be lynched? Elias and Skruffs voting for other people possibly makes it unlikely for you to be lynched, but what am I doing??

(Note, I realize that point 6 probably increases the chance I'll be lynched today by some amount, as it makes me appear haughty and overconfident and such foolishness might encourage a stupid gut reaction that causes somebody to vote me.

Cool .

I don't really care.)

And saying that you don't care, which you think increases your chance of being lynched, helps the town, how (if you are town)?

I realize I too have some apathy towards this game, but Elias's all out not caring about the result is suspicious of him, for me. It is an easy reason to not post. But I feel for him, because if he is town then he feels a lot like me, I guess I can just try not to act on it so much, and ask him to, too, if he's town.

[Thok]

I almost feel like facepalming at Guardian's responses.

Are you a chamber alt? Do you seriously think that making cases is pointless and doesn't help people assess whether you are right or wrong? Do you really believe that if you don't make an argument that anybody's going to bother to listen to you?

Also, I'm curious, what scum would you call yourself "dead on" for?

[Thok]

Replying to random other stuff in Guardian's post.

5. I agree that Skruffs seems more interested in hunting for scum than Elias.

Oh do you?

Yeah. I mentioned that I felt that was the only part of VitR's case against Elias that I liked in post 1999, for example and mentioned in 2014. I've been making this observation for a long while as part of my overall evaluation of Elias.

Skruffs has a much better voting record than Elias especially when you take into account the timing of votes (Skruffs pushed the john lynch when it looked like it might disappear, and Skruffs pushed on Setael fairly early on in her lynch).

How convenient buddying if Elias is lynched today.

Hi, you wanted me to give my opinion on who I thought was more likely to be scum out of Skruffs-Elias. I'm giving my reasons why I think Skruffs is town here. Was your purpose for asking me to explain what I thought of people to set it up so that you could accuse me of buddying up to the person who I thought was less likely to be scum? (Note: rhetorical question, don't bother answering it.)

Most of my reason for thinking Elias is protown solely has to do with his interaction with known scum (his fight with Romanus, his reaction to the Oman modkill, and Setael's suspicions of him) and to some extent the lack of a VitR vote when VitR and Tony were the potentially deadline lynchees and his suggestion that me/Guardian were cleared yesterday when we obviously weren't.

I think you underestimate Elias's scum play. He told me once (and I think his sig has) that he has lost, maybe 1 game as scum? I wouldn't put it past him at all, and your easy acceptance of that as a town tell bugs me.

Yeah, if you note, a lot of my reactions are coming from analyzing how Romanus/Setael/Tony acted towards Elias and not how Elias acted. Also, again, you're trying to use data that you asked me to provide you as a basis for attacking me.

6. The buttering up to me in your last paragraph is pointless.

Buttering up to you? lol. I want you dead . But, with the most information you have in the game, I'd like for you to not be 100% focused on explaining why I am scum and Elias and Skruffs are town, because if you are town and are lynched, that doesn't give me much of anything to go on for tomorrow, and drawing from players who were dead for days is bad since they had much less information.

[/quote]

You've asked me for my opinions despite the fact that you've seemingly ruled out the possibility of me being town. I consider that buttering up. Also, see my above comments about how you've reacted to me giving my opinions of Elias/Skruffs.

Moreover, given your current line of play it seems extremely unlikely to me that I'll be lynched today, because as things are going, you are undermining any reason for a wagon on me by yourself.

I really don't understand this at all. Maybe it has to do with the "not making cases" thing? I think you should be lynched, I've said so, I've sketched why, and asked for help. Why does that make it

unlikely

for you to be lynched? Elias and Skruffs voting for other people possibly makes it unlikely for you to be lynched, but what am I doing??

Gee, if you are town, you are acting scummy, you are refusing to answer questions, and just being a distraction. Basically, if you are town, you are doing your hardest to look scummy and discredit your own arguments.

As of right now, your play basically guarantees that nobody other than you is likely to vote for me. If you don't believe me, look at how many people supported you on your case for lynching IH. Would you believe that despite your continual attempts to get IH lynched, the largest number of people to ever vote IH at any point in the game was 2 (at least going through Simenon's vote counts I don't see a single time where IH ever had more than 3 votes)? Basically, if you are town, your line of play doesn't convince people to agree with you and thus self-sabotages any bandwagons you are trying to push.

(And I'll point out if I'm scum, I'm giving you advice on how to lynch me when you're clearly not able to do it on your own. I'm sure that you'll find some way to twist that into a nonsensical scum tell, whether you are scum or stupid town.)

(Note, I realize that point 6 probably increases the chance I'll be lynched today by some amount, as it makes me appear haughty and overconfident and such foolishness might encourage a stupid gut reaction that causes somebody to vote me.

Cool .

No, it's mainly because I thought Skruffs would get emotional and jump on that statement independent of his alignment.

I don't really care.)

And saying that you don't care, which you think increases your chance of being lynched, helps the town, how (if you are town)?

Saying I don't care, which I think increases my chance of being lynched, helps the scum, how (if I am scum)? The question is completely symmetrical for town and scum. It's a null tell.

[Guardian]

I don't even *want* to respond to all of that...

:\

I'm never going to keep up with this dialogue, all I hope is to read the last 10-15 pages or so, make sure my vote is right, and hope for the best.

[Guardian]

I just requested replacement/death in every mafiascum endeavour I'm in, besides this one.

I won't bail here, after the months and months, but yeah don't expect much more than Elias is giving/I've been giving.

My heart isn't in these games anymore.


Thok: Really, @cases: I definitely heartily question the assumption that cases

are

useful and helpful in determining whether you are right/wrong about something.

I don't need people to listen to me, I need people to make the right decisions.

And I was dead on about John.

It is not incredibly likely that I'll respond to your longer post.

[Thok]

The thing I was waiting in post 2126 for has happened, and helps me metagame Guardian as annoying town, not scum. (Granted, I probably could and should have deduced how the thing I was waiting for would happened about 24 hours or so ago.) His recent behavior to some extent supports that view.

vote Elias

[Guardian]

That was unexpected.

Thok, why does (I presume) me being town in Ork mafia correlate to me being town here? You think my play is that similar?

Not moving my vote at the moment. I'm interested in what Elias and Skruffs think of Thok's change of heart.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think I still dont care, as its probably just some attempt to get me to post. I'm not finishing my reread, I just want to lynch someone and get this game over with. Trust me, this has to do with me being tired of it way more then alignment.

[Guardian]

Elias, I can hammer you right now, you are still voting me (the only one not voting you), and think that Thok's vote is "just some attempt to get you to post"?

His vote doesn't change your game view in the slightest?

[Thok]

That was unexpected.

Thok, why does (I presume) me being town in Ork mafia correlate to me being town here? You think my play is that similar?

Not moving my vote at the moment. I'm interested in what Elias and Skruffs think of Thok's change of heart.

I feel like your play in both games is similar. In particular, I feel like your most recent play in both games is equally moronic and illogical and therefore it reasonable that you are merely a misguided townie and not scum. I also noticed other similarities between peoples play in that game and this one.

And if you feel like I'm "just making this up", I'll point out that I was the one (well possibly there were others, but it seems unlikely to me) who privately asked for the deadline to be extended, and that my reason for doing so was specifically so that I could see what happened in that game. I did this privately because I was trying to avoid mentioning an ongoing game in this thread.

[Simenon]

Let's try too avoid going to far in referencing ongoing games

[Elias_the_thief]

His vote doesn't change your game view in the slightest?

No. I'll tell you right now that hammering me is an idiotic move if you would like to win this game, as I am town. I dont understand why Thok is voting me, and frankly I dont really care too much as I dont have the will to defend myself from anything he might bring against me.

[Elias_the_thief]

On second thought, maybe you guys should lynch me. I know that I survive today I'll be an extremely popular lynch choice tomorrow if we hit town today. As that would lose the game, maybe it would be better to get me out of the way now. Though I still believe that Thok is town, and lynching the remaining other two over the next two days would win us the game. thok is voting me dispite the fact the that I essentially offer him the game if he's scum, so this reaffirms my belief that hes town.

[Guardian]

His vote doesn't change your game view in the slightest?

No. I'll tell you right now that hammering me is an idiotic move if you would like to win this game, as I am town.

You are voting me despite being at lynch -1. So voting you, and presumably lynching town would be idiotic? It seems that you're not sure whether you're supposed to be thinking I am scum or town.

I dont understand why Thok is voting me, and frankly I dont really care too much as I dont have the will to defend myself from anything he might bring against me.

I feel for you there.

On second thought, maybe you guys should lynch me.

diescumdie

I know that I survive today I'll be an extremely popular lynch choice tomorrow if we hit town today. As that would lose the game, maybe it would be better to get me out of the way now.

makes sense... diescumdie... makes sense... .

Though I still believe that Thok is town, and lynching the remaining other two over the next two days would win us the game. thok is voting me dispite the fact the that I essentially offer him the game if he's scum, so this reaffirms my belief that hes town.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.

I don't think anyone besides you is going to be lynched today, Thok and Skruffs are set on it. You are set on not Thok today, and I am pretty set on not Skruffs today.

I have some misgivings about this, but hey, maybe it ends the game . If not, here's to hoping we get it right tomorrow.

Vote: Elias

[Simenon]

Vote Count

Elias_the_thief (3)- Skruffs, Thok, Guardian
Guardian (1)- Elias_the_thief

Elias_the_thief, townie, was lynched day nine.

It is now day ten. This will be the last day. With three alive, it's two to lynch.

[Simenon]

Thank you all who replaced into this game, and thanks to those who stuck with it. I am grateful beyond words that you kept this game from being abandoned

[Thok]

Brilliant. I can't believe I let myself talk myself into switching my vote especially with that last stunt by Guardian.

Skruffs, is there any possible reason for you to think I'm scum and Guardian is not scum? Look at his voting record, the stuff that I've brought up before (that Guardian has deliberately chosen not to even discuss), and the fact that in the last two days he's manage to give BS ways to hammer people he spent most of the day arguing were protown.

No vote yet, although I'm sorely tempted to just vote Guardian.