Mini 545 - The Final Stand Mafia - Dramatic Finish!

[Tarhalindur]

/confirm

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: Khelvaster

for posting on site today but failing to confirm.

[Tarhalindur]

<snip>

A pressure vote is a vote designed to make the person being voted on claim or contribute to the game. Since this was random voting, a pressure vote definitely couldn't be done to make someone contribute. It was him wanting me to claim so that I would get the BW off.

That's odd, I was under the distinct impression that a pressure vote was a vote made to see how a player reacts under pressure and/or to draw out scum by interaction (specifically, through early defense).

[Tarhalindur]

Trebis's post 106 is pinging my scumdar - he seems to be agreeing with the (somewhat irrelevant) comments of others and talking about mafia theory (the whole "two townies arguing" paragraph), but he doesn't really offer any analysis of the game state (esp. with regards to who he thinks may be scum). That looks like a case of IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis), which has been a fairly reliable scumtell for me lately.

I don't really see the case on OMGL, however. I'm getting the impression that OMGL's early play (esp. the random vote) is a reference to Newb 507, and as such really can't be used as evidence against OMGL.

The Khelvaster/RetroDucts debate is getting Khelvaster talking, and that's a good thing in my books: I've played enough with Khelvaster (Mini 462, Mafia 67, and Newb 507 among others) to have a fairly good meta on him, though I will need to refresh my memory.

And now for something completely different: Sangy is far too under the radar for my tastes. He has only two game posts, of which one is a random vote. The other post, however, caught my eye:

Unvote, FOS Khelvaster because I don't buy that. Maybe, later on, I could see someone trying to force a claim, but that's a little early, isn't it? In addition to that, with a bandwagon of three on page two I hardly think anyone WOULD feel pressured to claim.

I find FoS'ing when you don't have a real vote out to be an incredibly scummy move, as there are two strong motivations for scum to FoS instead of vote (the motivations that lead to the Friend of Scum tell - where a scum distances via a FoS instead of a vote - and the "scum pushing a bandwagon without voting on it" tell). The lack of posting after that point also does not sit well with me (though I grant that I really don't have the right to complain on that subject).

Questions:
Trebis, who are your top 3 scum candidates and why?
Khelvaster, what are your opinions on OGML, Trebis, and myself?
OGML, what are your opinions on Trebis, Khelvaster, and myself?

Mod, can we have a Prod on Sangy?

Unvote, Vote: Sangy
FoS: Trebis

(may be upgraded to a vote if he fails to produce a Top 3 Scum List)

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded, and noted reason for absence in V/LA

Unvote, Vote: thejivemachine

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded, and noted reason for absence in V/LA

Unvote, Vote: thejivemachine

Um, explanation please?

A combination of reaction-testing and a few scummy posts:

DERP BANDWAGON

DERP DERP DERP

These are my thoughts on RetroDucts and shaka

This post gave me the impression that TJC might be scum trying to maintain the appearance of contributing without actually doing so. Note the lack of actual scumhunting.

I don't see the role fishing.

But shaka, first you say shits and giggles, now it was a pressure vote? What reason do you have to pressure Khel, anyways? By the time of your vote he had shown up and explained his absence.

A post consisting of a question and a throw-away comment about interpretation will usually ping my scumdar.

Well, I'll at least get my vote off myself.

Unvote

No one seems to be sticking out. Maybe Khel.

Do you think he may have been lying about being under said assumption, Mizzy? Why or why not?

Glork, did you ask this question because you are doubtful of Khelvaster's story?

I, personally, think that that would be a rather absurd thing to make up, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

Again, jive seems to have no strong opinions and asks other people for their opinions (while showing very little of his own thoughts).

The reason why I withheld my reasoning was to see if anyone jumped out to attack in response to my vote (especially to see if somebody attacked me for my vote, something that I have seen scum do in the past). I got the results I wanted - nobody seemed to care about my unexplained vote except for Mizzy, who simply asked for explanation, which, given my past experience, suggests that Jive is town.

Besides, Joubert brought up the possibility of a Jester as a justification for unvoting, something that I find INCREDIBLY scummy (constantly speculating about a possible Jester is amazingly pro-scum, since it leads to Jester WIFOM and town paralysis whenever a large bandwagon develops) to the point of being voteworthy.

Unvote, Vote: Joubert

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote

to prevent quickhammering

Claim would be good.

[Tarhalindur]

Aaah, I'm glad I said those funky things, very funny posts ensued...

Frankly, I didn't intend sexism against anyone, and I admit "unparalleled" was

almost

taken at random in the dictionary.

Unvote,

mostly because Glork could be Jester

. By the way, Shaka, what does "pull a Glork on you" mean exactly...

Vote: Joubert

to put him back at L-2. I will keep my vote on him unless he can answer the following questions to my satisfaction.

Joubert, why did you think that Glork might be a Jester? Also, what were your other reasons (if any) for unvoting Glork?

[Tarhalindur]

Aaah, I'm glad I said those funky things, very funny posts ensued...

Frankly, I didn't intend sexism against anyone, and I admit "unparalleled" was

almost

taken at random in the dictionary.

Unvote,

mostly because Glork could be Jester

. By the way, Shaka, what does "pull a Glork on you" mean exactly...

Vote: Joubert

to put him back at L-2. I will keep my vote on him unless he can answer the following questions to my satisfaction.

Joubert, why did you think that Glork might be a Jester? Also, what were
your other reasons (if any) for unvoting Glork?

I'm still waiting for an answer, Joubert.

[Tarhalindur]

Oh, I already answered... Post #232:

I put my original vote on Glork because, in my opinion, it seemed like he took something I said that was moderately significant, make it bigger and invective me with exclamation marks and sputter. But then, after rethinking, I thought it could be jesterish behavior, so I retired my vote without even reading the new posts, because obviously the Jester wants to be lynched...

I don't have any other reason...

<snip>

Uh, my question was "why did you think he was a Jester?", not "why did you unvote?"...

[Tarhalindur]

Glork looked Jesterish in my opinion when he accused me with fanfare and confetti. Shortly after, he adopted a more normal behavior. That's how I see it...

And right now, I think that you're scum who's been trying to stay under the radar by talking about theory instead of actually scumhunting.

Why? I consider even bringing up the possibility of a Jester to be a major scumtell unless the existence of a Jester is confirmed by the mod*, since Jester WIFOM is incredibly good for the scum and there is, IMO, no good town reason to factor Jester considerations into lynch choices (open setups aside), and your relatively weak explanation does nothing to allay this concern. In addition, your claim that you found Glork "Jesterish" when you don't seem to find anyone actually, you know, "scummy" and your comments about the possibility of a No Lynch look like Information Instead of Analysis to me - one of my favorite tells, and one that your predecessor was also guilty of.

* - and if lynching the Jester does not end the game then I will gladly help the Jester fulfill his or her win condition. Lynching scum/anti-town neutrals is a good thing in my book.

[Tarhalindur]

Here's another question or two.

Glork, were there any posts in particular that caused you to get cold feet on Trebis/Joubert? In addition, was there any particular reason that you decided to vote for me over Khelvaster and Erg0 (who you also seemed to think were scummy)?

[Tarhalindur]

Last question: Glork, what are your thoughts about Joubert bringing up the whole can of Jester WIFOM in the first place?

[Tarhalindur]

Well, yeah I was waiting for the hammer or until the deadline closed in on us a bit more. A lot can happen in 48 hours.

Does this deadline even require a hammer or will the person with the most votes be auto-lynched?

If the rules post is to be believed, we need a majority.

More later, I'm short on time.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm back, and I've taken the time to reread the thread, during which a few recent posts really jumped out at me. Let's take a look at the scummy, shall we?

Official confirmation from the mod would be good, but I think that was the hammer vote from killa seven just now. I don't like the policy lynch, but if the last vote count from Glork was right then thats what just happened. Shaka, you may have done it in the past, but it still makes me uncomfortable, since its an easy way for mafia to make sure of a mislynch.

I'm sorry that last flurry of votes happened before I finished reading through everything I had missed and could comment. I think killa is a big newb so everything he say should be seen through that light, and as a result I'm happy that its joubert who seems to be the one getting lynched here. Asking for a no lynch was scummy no matter how he defends it, as was bringing up all that jester BS. Overall his whole tone was just rubbing me the wrong way, and making him come off as scummy.

FoS: Shaka

for pushing the policy lynch

First, let us take a look at a late D1 post, courtesy of OGML.

Observe how OGML is trying to have it both ways. He is explicitly supporting the Joubert lynch ("happy that Joubert is being lynched"), but he finds shaka!! scummy for... get this...

supporting the Joubert lynch

. That's a direct contradiction, and that's seriously scummy.

The post-lynch support for the lynch wagon is also pinging my scumdar, but it's nowhere near as strong a tell as trying to have your cake and eat it, too.

Actually, it is worth bringing up. If I'm reading it correctly, it wouldn't give anything away that scum don't already know.

Town aligned doc implies to me that there may be a scum Doc. "Sire" implies to me that there's probably a Godfather type role in the scum, but given the presence of a scum Doc, they're probably investigation immune rather than unnightkillable. A scum Doc also implies a second night killing role/faction, which may be pro-town or scum.

Or perhaps it could be a roleblocker of some sort? That's in a sense what a doctor is...hrm. I honestly hadn't noticed that. The "sire" I DID notice...but I didn't think much of it.

I wonder then if we have some sort of cop?

Now consider this gem of a post, courtesy of Mizzy. (Yes, I just switched from analyzing OGML to analyzing Mizzy. The reason will become clear shortly.)

Speculating about power roles and setup details is generally anti-town, as it does not contribute to scumhunting (the exception - intricate theme games with questionable balance - is not relevant here). The way in which Mizzy speculates about power roles, however, is outright scummy (specifically naming power roles, raising out of nowhere the possibility of a powerful role that would be a priority target now that the Doctor is dead). Mizzy is rolefishing, either intentionally or inadvertently, and she needs to be called out on it.

Vote: Erg0

Glork's town alignment means his suspicions were exactly that... just suspicions. Yes, he's a good scum hunter, and it was almost definitely his reputation that got him NKed and not any suspicion on the scum's part that he was a power role, but in the end he had exactly as much information as any other townie. However, given that he was also suspicious of you, I find it extremely scummy for you to use that against Shaka. I also don't buy the "I was looking for a scummy response" defense of a retarded vote.

Minor FoS: Mizzy

because speculating about town power roles is not so good. Seems like you're fishing for information. On that note, RD, you probably shouldn't be doing so much set-up speculation either, though doing so about mafia roles is not as much of a problem.

@killa seven, why did you hammer joubert rather than letting him be lynched at deadline as was on its way to happening anyway? It would have given at least a little more time for useful discussion.

Now let us return to the scumminess that is OGML.

There are two HUGE problems with this post. First, OGML seems to know WAY too much about the reasons why Glork was killed. Why is this scummy? Well, there's a reason why the Mafia is also known as the informed minority, and it doesn't just cover knowing exactly who is Mafia and who is not.

The second, even more noteworthy problem is that OGML FoS'es Mizzy for a very valid reason, but diverts attention away from this by voting for Erg0 (with far weaker reasoning) and attacking RetroDucts in a way that suggests that Mizzy's setup speculation isn't really that bad (it is). In other words, OGML is pointing out Mizzy's scummy actions without actually attacking Mizzy. In my experience, this kind of play usually indicates distancing scum.

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

Perhaps, IF you remove the "human" and "ego" elements from the equation. I think, though, that this scenario contains both.

Once again: your theory is that I was unaware that nightkill WIFOM is a bad idea? I'll find a game where I specifically argue against drawing conclusions from nightkills if that helps.

What I meant was that I don't think he made a slip-up, and I don't think that dishonestly is always a valid scumtell. It's nice to go on when you have other forms of proof, too, but I think you guys are reaching a bit. If you don't agree with me, then show me some proof.

I have lied as town...who hasn't? I'll do it again, too, if that's what it takes to win.

I'm not saying that Erg0 is totally scumless...I don't like some of his actions.

Can I quickly throw in here that this smacks of being too confident of info a townie couldn't be 100% sure of?

Glork's town alignment means his suspicions were exactly that... just suspicions. Yes, he's a good scum hunter, and it was

almost definitely his reputation that got him NKed and not any suspicion on the scum's part that he was a power role

, but in the end he had exactly as much information as any other townie.

Yeah, that was a rather scummy action, wasn't it, Mizzy? But then again, you're bringing up a legitimately scummy action while trying to pass it off as an "afterthought" - and, therefore, without following up on it. Looks like distancing to me.

Here's what I think. I think that at least one of OMGL and Mizzy is scum, and that there is a fairly high chance that they are, in fact, scumbuddies.

I'll post up a more general analysis when I get some more time (probably tomorrow), including a bunch of votecounts for vote pattern analysis. There's no reason to wait until tomorrow to go after the scummy, though.

Vote: OhGodMyLife
HoS: Mizzy

[Tarhalindur]

Mod:

You seem to have missed shaka's vote for Mizzy and TheJiveMachine's vote for OGML on the vote count.

Mod Edit: Fixed

I will find time to respond to Mizzy's points later today or tomorrow. In the meantime, note that I am getting cold feet about Mizzy. Shaka!! and Khelvaster are focusing exclusively on Mizzy and ignoring OGML, when I consider the OGML case the stronger case of the two (please note who I am voting, and it's not Mizzy).

I will also post my thoughts on everyone in the next few days, and some vote counts for analysis.

[Tarhalindur]

Speculating about power roles and setup details is generally anti-town, as it does not contribute to scumhunting (the exception - intricate theme games with questionable balance - is not relevant here). The way in which Mizzy speculates about power roles, however, is outright scummy (specifically naming power roles, raising out of nowhere the possibility of a powerful role that would be a priority target now that the Doctor is dead). Mizzy is rolefishing, either intentionally or inadvertently, and she needs to be called out on it.

I am not the only one who did it, so why then am I the only one to be called on it? Besides, I already WAS called on it. Not smart of me, perhaps,

BS. Only one player brought it up before I did (and that player - OGML - didn't follow up on it), and nobody else has called you on the important part of the argument - namely,

you were speculating about the possibility of a Cop (THE most powerful town role in Mafia), which is tenuously connected at best to the events of last night, and the one logical reason why you might have asked about the Cop is that you might be scum trying to draw out the Cop now that the Doc is dead

.

Come to think of it, maybe I should be going after you instead of OGML after all.

Yeah, that was a rather scummy action, wasn't it, Mizzy? But then again, you're bringing up a legitimately scummy action while trying to pass it off as an "afterthought" - and, therefore, without following up on it. Looks like distancing to me.

The reason that it seemed like an afterthought interjection was because it actually WAS an afterthought. I was getting ready to go to bed (not really a valid excuse, I know) and when I was answering Erg0, I saw OGML's post again and that part stood out at me. It hadn't before. I had planned on waiting a bit to see if OGML responded to it before saying anything else on it.

I'm sure you guys know by now that I'm a cautious player. I don't vote unless I wouldn't mind seeing that person dead, and I also use FoSes pretty rarely. That's why I didn't do more about it...I wanted to be sure, first. I also didn't want a response from me to come off as OMGUS since he'd just fingered me, which also would make made me look scummy.[/quote]

The fact that you pointed out OGML's mistake as an afterthought doesn't concern me nearly so much as the fact that you did so after OGML brought up your scummiest action as an afterthought. An afterthought is an afterthought (unless one of the players involved dies and turns up scum), but a reciprocated afterthought can indicate a link between two players.

Tar, your first point against me is absolutely valid, and all I can say is that because I had been absent for a period of time leading up to the lynch, I was trying to get a lot of conflicting thoughts out at the same time. I was happy with the Joubert lynch because any lynch is better than a no-lynch, but I also wanted to express trepidation at the way it had happened.

The second point I can see looking back at my own post is also well founded, but I was simply expressing my opinion, albeit worded strongly, that Glork was an obvious choice for the NK because he is a high-profile scum hunter. I wanted to help put to rest needless discussion over whether or not the mafia had figured out somehow that he was the doctor.

Finally - I get that your claimed playstyle is relatively passive, you don't need to keep bringing everything back to that point. Can we move on to actual issues already?

The third point, about FoSing mizzy but voting Erg0, is where I have to disagree with you. I didn't think her role speculation was as big an issue as Erg0's blatant wifom in attacking Shaka, but I did think it needed to be pointed out. We seem to have a difference of opinion here about which is the more important scum tell. I thought Mizzy's was minor, especially in comparison to Erg0, and I just wanted to warn her not to engage in any more role speculation (thus the "Minor FoS").

1) Hmm. I still don't like your post-lynch post, but I usually (WIFOM, etc, etc.) don't see scum try to pull off the "ok, I'll admit that's scummy" defense. A point in your favor, methinks.
2) Makes sense, but I still don't like the wording.
3) See my reply to Mizzy above.

Player reads:

OhGodMyLife - I've already explained my views here, though OGML's newest post is dampening my enthusiasm somewhat.
Khelvaster - Possible scum. Something was bothering me about Khelvaster, and while rereading some older games I realized what it was: TUNNEL VISION. Tunnel vision is a fairly reliable scumtell for some players, and Khelvaster is one of them (who I've played with enough to have a decent meta on).
killa seven - Probably newb town; I can't quite put my finger on why, but I think that he's genuinely scumhunting.
Sangy - Looks like possible scum to me; in particular, her last post looks like mudslinging towards a seemingly vulnerable townie rather than actual scumhunting. Now can we get a replacement here, please?
Mizzy - Another player who I've already explained my views on.
Tarhalindur - I'm town. Then again, I would say the same thing even if I were not town. Judge for yourself.
Erg0 - Possible scum - another player who's been guilty of tunnel vision, though I will grant that it's not as unusual for Erg0 as it is for Khelvaster.
RetroDucts - Looks town to me, not so much for anything specific as for a general lack of things that ping my scumdar.
shaka!! - Scum read. He's guilty of IIoA (I'm seeing a lot more Mafia theory in shaka!!'s posts than I am comfortable with) and extremely passive even when he is active, both of which are things which really ping my scumdar. Also of note: Shaka!!'s been arguing with Mizzy since D1, but he's not only all-but-ignored OGML, he actually asked for an OGML prod during D1.
TheJiveMachine - Weak scum read; like shaka!!, after a reread it's clear that he has been WAY too passive for my tastes. The "great night" comment is also a valid point.

I'll need to mull things over before I decide on a specific order for my own Top 3 Scum List.

Unvote, UnHoS

while I make my decision.

[Tarhalindur]

a /prodded will have to do for now, should post more tomorrow

[Tarhalindur]

shaka!! - Scum read. He's guilty of IIoA (I'm seeing a lot more Mafia theory in shaka!!'s posts than I am comfortable with) and extremely passive even when he is active, both of which are things which really ping my scumdar. Also of note: Shaka!!'s been arguing with Mizzy since D1, but he's not only all-but-ignored OGML, he actually asked for an OGML prod during D1.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this mainly cause I don't understand most of it. Whats IIoA? Also, where have I used Mafia theory?

IIoA is the Information Instead of Analysis tell, where a scum player discusses how town and scum supposedly play the game in order to give the appearance of participation without actually scumhunting.

As for posts that I was interpreting as Mafia theory:

<snipped for brevity>

And this. I completely agree. Random voting starts discussion based on various things that happened during the random voting stage, such as someones voting habit or bandwagons etc etc. Random voting gets the game going and isn't often looked upon later on in the game. Random role-claiming could seriously effect the outcome of the game, something as mad as that is likely to get someone lynched. And lets say someone actually goes and role claims that would definitely affect the entire game, although that is unlikely.

The difference is significant.

Oh my God that was the most boring reread I've ever done.

The worst thing is that I can't pick anything up on anyone in this game so far because every quarrel that has been held between people has ended with a friendly hand shake and moving the conversation onto something completely irrelevant.

My word I just realized how scummy of a tactic that would be. I'll reread again and investigate scum distancing and buddying up possibilities when my brain has reformed from its melted state due to the reread I just took.

Glork was highly suspicious of you. Glork is now dead. Seems like as good a place as any to start.

More like full of WIFOM

I try not to read into night kills for this particular reason, you never know what the mafia is thinking and it is often very hard to figure it out. It's all too often that I've seen mafia send the town on wild goose chases using their night kill.

Seriously, how am I meant to defend myself from something like this? "Someone who found you scummy is dead." Um.. Ok.. I didn't do it. Happy?

I would like to hear an explanation from you as to how these posts were game-relevant.

How can I be passive if I've been arguing with Mizzy all day?

There is a difference between casting dirt on a player and scumhunting.

Posts that I interpreted as passiveness:

With all due respect. Not once did I accuse you of being scum, nor claim that what I was typing was some sort of scum tell, in fact I don't think I was even being aggressive.

How ever I can see how you can read it as aggressive. I generally prefer to use colloquialism rather than formal writing, it's more 'me'. For example, when I said pick a fight, to me I don't think anything aggressive or 'asshole like' about it because I am a boxer and I live with that kind of thing everyday. Sorry for the whole aggressive tempo misunderstanding.

If you had waited a little bit longer before posting there you would've found out that I in fact didn't warrant much suspicion on you nor Trebis, which is what I was going to say when I was going to type up my proper response to erg0.

I was merely trying to give the game a push and I wasn't aware that you had been picked on Mizzy, which is why I chose you to spur on.

I do disagree about most of the game being one liners, though.

Oh, and if you are 6 months pregnant you should be resting more rather then playing this silly game. Mood swings are bad for all of us (: Congrads btw.

As for erg0.

I believe Mizzy has already answered it for me, it is very hard to play a game when only a few are involved in an argument. I myself find it difficult to involve myself in a game where a few people are arguing amongst themselves, so I often appear to be lurking.

I believe Trebis was just trying to involve himself in the game as best he could due to him not really being part of any discussions. I would've hit Trebis on it like I did with Mizzy but Trebis was already under fire so I decided I'd see if I could try to get Mizzy posting productively.

Notice that even though he is getting replaced, ever since he has been under fire and part of the discussion he has been posting productively?

So to conclude I believe that both Trebis and Mizzy (and myself and most others) are just having trouble including themselves in the game rather than purposely posting all talk and no action.

This is the scummiest post you have made this game, IMO. That bolded portion? I call BS. You may not have said it in those words, but you were definitely painting Mizzy as scum before this post. As such, as far as I can tell you were attacking Mizzy yet explicitly deny that you think she (or Trebis for that matter) is scum... the logical implication is that you were throwing dirt on her to make her look scummy and then backing off when she called you on it. That, shaka, is a HUGE scumtell in my book, especially as it means that you were claiming that you were NOT scumhunting when pressuring Mizzy (and I'm having trouble buying your interactions with any other player as scumhunting).

The other post that caught my eye:

shaka, you still haven't told me who you think is actually scummy and why you haven't done more to try to get them lynched.

If I had found someone scummy I would be pushing their lynch very hard right now. The reason why I was to settle on Joubert or Killa is because I don't find anyone scummy and in a deadline situation I'd rather go for broke rather then no lynch.

I was really hoping on a reread in day 2 to try and weed out some new information based on the night kills and new information that comes out of the night.

Joubert that post you just made is making this a whole lot harder for me, but with the deadline coming to a close I don't have much choice.

vote: Joubert

So, you still didn't find anyone scummy at the end of D1 despite plenty of attacks on Mizzy and killa and ample time to, you know, pressure suspicious-looking people and try to out the scum? Instead of actually pressuring more people in an attempt to draw out scum, you continue attacking Mizzy (after claiming that you didn't think Mizzy was scum, implying that you thought Mizzy was town) and Joubert (a possible target of convenience in hindsight, and you claimed that you thought HE was town as well), then hop onto the Joubert wagon late.

Furthermore, despite the fact that hopping onto the largest wagon in order to guarantee a lynch is a perfectly pro-town reason for voting, you haul out an argument for your Joubert vote that I consider utter BS. Voting him because you think he'll be useless? That's horrible logic - scumlogic, I daresay.

The final piece of evidence that you're being passive? You've only gone after three players in the entirety of the game, and you backed off of ALL of them... then CONTINUED to attack two of them despite claiming that you thought they were town.

I ask for a prod of OGML because he was in another game of mine and wasn't posting there either. Can't remember if I prodded him in that game or not.

I'll concede this point. I can't really say more because the game in
question (it's Mini 547) is ongoing.

Still, one good response does not make up for your lack of scumhunting.

Vote: shaka!!

[Tarhalindur]

<snipped>

[

You were too silent in Day 1 for my liking. Want to give us your thoughts on it?

The flavor basically confirms that there is a godfather, or at least that the scum are working for someone flavorwise.

Assuming there is a godfather the flavor text also leads me to believe he didn't perform this nightkill, or possibly that he can't be the one to NK period.

The town-aligned doctor thing doesn't seem to mean anything to me. Alignment followed by role is basically meant to avoid confusion, not imply things about other alignments' roles. Still, I don't assume the scum don't have a doctor/roleblocker/whatever.

As for suspecting people based on the fact that Glork was the one killed, I don't think it is a wise strategy to go on that alone, as it is obvious WIFOM, and, as mentioned, Glork is an excellent scumhunter and high-profile target no matter who the scum are.

tjm believes there is a godfather or the scum are working for someone other then a a whole group. and he says glork was killed because he has a good rep for scum hunting.

I'm going to parrot tarhalindur's favorite scumtell here and call this one Information Instead of Analysis. Killa sums it up without taking it for what it is. This was TJM's meatiest post of the day, and all it is is setup speculation and nightkill speculation. Neither of those things are getting us anywhere.

Aside from those two points, I think killa has very adequately outlined TJM's strategy of looking active without being active. He makes nonsense posts (deeeerp) in response to attacks, deflects others with jokes (I'm being suspected based on math LOLZ) and generally stalls, telling us reasons for his lurking and promising future content without ever delivering. His voting record is also suspect, as he joins the Joubert bandwagon at the height of its popularity with little original thought, and today glomps onto Tar's case against me and sticks to it to the exclusion of, it seems, even bothering to read anything else thats going on.

<snipped for brevity>

Okay, how the HELL did I miss that during my last reread? That's DEFINITELY IIoA, given how little content TJM has posted lately, and I feel like an idiot for not noticing it earlier.

That's enough for me to place TJM at the top of my scumdar (

maybe

second behind shaka!!, but it's not like my shaka vote is doing anything useful right now and we have a deadline approaching).

Unvote, Vote: TheJiveMachine

[Tarhalindur]

WARNING: TJM is at L-1. He'll be lynched at deadline if nothing else happens, so nobody hammer until Jive claims.

[Tarhalindur]

I just went back and looked through TJM's posts.

One thing stood out - a player who TJM mentioned more than just about anyone else but never actually attacked. This player also was pinging my scumdar yesterday, albeit not to the extent that shaka!!/TJM/OGML were.

Vote: Khelvaster

More elaboration to come.

[Tarhalindur]

Some scummy posts, courtesy of Khelvaster:

First:

I feel erg0 is town, Glork. He is showing all the hallmarks of a somewhat lazy town, not a scum trying to cover up lack of evidence.

I consider defending another player to be a generally anti-town action. It becomes damn suspicious when the two posts you made prior to this post both seem to show moderate suspicion of the player you're defending:

Oh yeah:

Vote: Trebis

He's got newbscum written all over him.

FoS: Erg0

Care to elaborate on that?

Erg0, could you please give me some quotes of his to support "all talk and no action?"

Second:

Vote: Erg0

Given the situation, I feel a scum slip-up and backtrack is likely. Erg0 did something idiotic, and he is trying to WIFOM to cover it up.

I REALLY don't like this post, especially given the timing (right after Erg0 switched from shaka!! to TJM). I suspect that this is, in fact, the Chainsaw Defense (a tell that I've used for a while but only recently named, it consists of defending another player by attacking his attacker). Even more interestingly, if this is the Chainsaw Defense, then the player that he was defending was TheJiveMachine... now better known as the Mafia Godfather.

The shift from "Erg0 seems town" to "Erg0 seems scum" is also noteworthy. Bussing? Possible, but I have my doubts.

Third:

Khelvaster - He came out of his argument with RD looking pro-town. I liked his post 96 in that discussion very much and it raised my suspicions against RD. However, after that issue settled, he hasn't been posting as much as before. It worries me he might be scum trying to lay low now that people can't really accuse him of lurking anymore after such a discussion. My take on him at this moment remains

neutral

.

I agree with you in that I have been lying low. I really don't understand the whole Mizzy thing enough to feel like I'm able to contribute adequately. I am waiting for something to come up that I can either attack or defend. The mizzy stuff isn't doing it for me.

Now where have I seen this kind of "yeah, I did this" defense earlier in this game? Oh yeah...

Yes, but making mountains out of molehills just makes it easier for the scum to make us turn on each other...I don't think that JUST that opinion is worthy of a vote. Is that the only reason you're voting for him?

That and lurking, which I didn't want to bring up since it would be wholly hypocritical of me.

Hmm.

Finally:

One thing stood out - a player who TJM mentioned more than just about anyone else but never actually attacked. This player also was pinging my scumdar yesterday, albeit not to the extent that shaka!!/TJM/OGML were.

Vote: Khelvaster

I'm not so sure about this, I just read through TJM contributions to the game and he only really talks about Khel on day 1 when he was a hot topic of conversation. I did find this interesting, though:

<Snipped for brevity>

Erg0, I'd advise that you take a second look at Jive's posts, especially this one from the beginning of Day 2:

I haven't posted for the past two weeks. I forgot I was in this game. Let me catch up.

Most of that time was night...not so much to catch up on.

That looks like scum bringing a buddy up to speed to me. Seriously, why doesn't Khel have 3-4 votes on him yet?

------

Finally, some comments on players not named Khelvaster. I now have a fairly strong town read on OGML (note how Jive attached himself to that wagon like a magnet - scum generally don't do that to fellow scum so early in the wagon). I think killa is town, but I have reservations (his actions *could* be bussing). Shaka!! and Sierra are both pinging my scumdar, albeit not to the extent that Khel is.

[Tarhalindur]

My best defence now is to claim survivor. I've been trying to act as unobtrusively as possible because, well, that's my goal. I don't want the scum NKing me for being too good of a town, and I don't want the town lynching me for being a BM or ABR. As a result, I would like vig, SK, scum, and anyone else with NKs to please refrain from killing me.

That's awfully convenient... under pressure, you claim a role that requires survival (neatly explaining your lurking) and just happens to be a role that I would expect mafia to claim. I call shenanigans.

Let's see here. What happens if we lynch Khelvaster?

Best case scenario: Khelvaster is lying scum. We lynch him and get closer to a town victory.

Worst case scenario: We lynch Khelvaster, and he turns out to be telling the truth... in other words, he's effectively a vanilla townie with the potential to screw us over at endgame and a higher-than-normal incentive to lurk.

As worst case scenarios go, that's not even a bad one.

Confirm Vote

[Tarhalindur]

Mod

: I fail to see where Sierra voted for Khelvaster.

In other news, while conversation may be a good thing, my scumdar is pinging RetroDucts for the way in which he is asking for us not to lynch Khel yet. I've seen scum use a similar defense before: see Stargate SG-1, where the Gou'Ald scum tried to stop a lynch on a newb scum by stalling until the storm blew over.

FoS: RetroDucts

I want to see Khel put back at L-1 in the near future.

[Tarhalindur]

Gah, something's come up and I won't be able to get this posted tonight.

I promise you all the most awesome post tomorrow.

The same awesome post you promised us on Monday?

[Tarhalindur]

I am happy to see that my suspicions about RetroDucts were not misguided.

I don't think a massclaim is a good idea: I believe that the remaining setup consists of a Vig, 3 Townies, and a Mafioso, and I'd rather keep the Vig under wraps to increase the likelihood that he survives the night should we fail to lynch correctly.

Besides, I'm pretty sure that I already know who the last scum is.

Vote: Sierra

His posts are fairly scummy, his predecessors' even more so, but what I find particularly telling is that Sierra seemed to find TJM and RetroDucts scummy (especially during Day 2, check his analysis post) but never actually acted on his suspicions.

I'll PBPA Sierra later, I am short on time.

[Tarhalindur]

im here sorry, so was shelv lying about the survivor role or does it now just show up?

It would have shown up as such if he had been telling the truth. Obviously at that point he thought it was the only way for him to avoid being lynched. It was bad play, but is no longer important. Why is this the only thing you cared to comment on?

Everybody:
I would appreciate if you could voice your opinion as to whether you agree with my conclusion that Erg0 had an innocent on Shaka!!, as reaching a consensus on this will be very helpful moving forward.

Additionally, I would like to see from everybody a ranking from most willing to least willing to lynch of the remaining five players. Here's mine:
-Sierra/Tarhalindur
-Killa seven
-OhGodMyLife
-Shaka!!

I believe that it is very likely that Erg0 had an innocent on Shaka!!, but I am not 100% sure (more like 95% certain) about that conclusion.

Lynch order:

- Sierra
<large gap>
- Killa Seven
- OGML
- Shaka!!
- Tarhalindur

[Tarhalindur]

OGML, there is one small but important problem with your vote - namely, that I have a pretty much ironclad claim. I'm the Vig.

Now can we lynch Sierrascum, kthxbai?

[Tarhalindur]

For reference: held fire N1 and N2, killed Retro N3 (hence my "suspicions about Retro were not misguided" comment near the top of the page).

[Tarhalindur]

Full vig, otherwise I would have claimed in my first post today.

[Tarhalindur]

Tar, if you are the vig, you definitely must not use your kill tonight. If you kill wrong, game over.

Well, duh. I'm not blind.

[Tarhalindur]

Crap, I got drunk. Can't do it now. Postponed again.

Retro tried to stall the lynch yesterday. You tried to stall the lynch yesterday. Now you're trying to stall the lynch today.

I think I need to add "trying to stall the lynch" to my list of major scumtells. I also think that Sierra needs to be lynched posthaste.

LOCK ON: Sierra

[Tarhalindur]

I think I need to add "trying to stall the lynch" to my list of major scumtells. I also think that Sierra needs to be lynched posthaste.

QFT

Maybe after this one I can stop stealing all of your scum tells and come up with some of my own. You need a catchy name for this one too though, like you have for IIoA and The Chainsaw Defense.

Methinks "The Stallin' Defense" would be a sufficiently catchy name.

[Tarhalindur]

so should i hammer him or wait?

Hammer the scum.

[Tarhalindur]

If Sierra is, in fact, Mafia, then I'm screwed, so I might as well tell the truth.

Claim: Serial Killer

(killed Glork N1, Mizzy N2, and RetroDucts N3.)

This is a Prisoner's Dilemma endgame. Killa Seven, I am 90% sure that you are the final Mafioso (and if OGML is Mafia then he deserves the win and a Scummy nomination). I have no intention of crosskilling tonight. I may or may not be lying about this. Killa, your move.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: killa, if you are smart, you will nokill tonight (since nokilling screws me over if I kill you), I will nokill tonight (since doing so screws you over if you kill me), And We All Live Happily Ever After.

[Tarhalindur]

Ah well. I killed the player I was 95% sure was pro-town (due to Erg0).

Turns out my Day 2 case was valid after all. Oh well, I'd rather see the town win than a rival scum faction win. :/

[Tarhalindur]

As for *why* I killed, I saw these scenarios:

0) Shaka!! is scum. Didn't really see that one coming (probably should have reconsidered after electing to claim SK).
1) OGML is scum. Unlikely, and if he was scum I wouldn't feel bad losing to him.
2) killa is scum and kills me tonight. If I kill, then I hand the win to killa; if I do not kill, I hand the win to OGML (the consolation prize).
3) killa is scum, buys my comment, and does not kill me. If I kill a pro-town player (read: shaka!!), I should be able to force the no-lynch tomorrow and place killa in a kingmaker situation.
4) I am the only surviving scum. If this is the case, then no-killing probably loses me the game, and I should be able to win by killing the innocent and forcing the nolynch Day 5.

I actually thought setup 4 was the most likely, since Mini 467 had a very similar setup (cop + doc vs. 2 mafia and SK) and I considered it mostly balanced, especially with a godfather added.

[Tarhalindur]

I kill as SK pretty much the same way I would kill as Vig unless a major threat presents itself, and I thought you were Mafia, so that's why I killed you. No idea on the Mafia.