Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Jitsu]

Well Adel, I'm just interested as you were so sure you'd caught all three scum, and after korlash's lynch you just walked away from Jerrubbal. I happen to think the scumgroup is you korlash and jerrubbal.

I read your case on Adel originally. Why Jerubbaal?

[jerubbaal]

I'm confused on the Adel case as well beyond "He changed his mind." It seems like Flay is riding the hatred of Adel's playstyle pretty well. I still like the case on Flay way more than the case on Adel (which hasn't really even been fully stated yet). Even in the post when Flay votes Adel, he points out that the way Adel is playing is "too stupid" for scum. I think what he's doing is fairly legit, but it makes no sense for scum. Plus I don't buy the "oops" explanation from Flay.

If I understand what Adel has said about his methods at all (which, admittedly, is not much), a lot of his decisions seem to be based on profiling, and there's only so much profit in arguing profiles.

I would also like to know why I'm being linked to Adel, other than not minding his style of play so much.

[Oman]

I read your case on Adel originally. Why Jerubbaal?

Adel said Jerrubbal was definatly scum with Korlash, lynched Korlash, and now leaves Jerrubbal alone. I need to do a Jerrubbal reread.

[Adel]

I fail to understand why that is a scumtell against me... the implicit logical seems to be if jerrubbal is scum than I must be scum. Why Oman would vote on me rather than him isn't clear to me.

[Oman]

Adel, please stop strawmanning me.

[Adel]

Adel said Jerrubbal was

definatly

scum with Korlash, lynched Korlash, and now leaves Jerrubbal alone.

Adel, please stop strawmanning me.

suck it.

[Adel]

FoS: Jerubball

Korlash's most likely scumbuddy

[Oman]

Well sorry that I overstated your position. But you were fairly confident in your latter posts. You were still strawmanning me.

[Adel]

and why was the term "strawman" so activated in your mind? Is it because you recognized on some level that that was exactly what your post at 1052 consisted of? How is that reread going?

[Oman]

You were strawmanning me Adel, you took my entire thought process on you down to that thing with jerrubbal, you said "the implicit logical seems to be if jerrubbal is scum than I must be scum. Why Oman would vote on me rather than him isn't clear to me. " Even though I have other reasons.

Die more pluz.

[jerubbaal]

I will be gone leading a church youth thingie from Wednesday to Sunday.

I'm afraid Adel just made you look terribly dumb, Oman. You really don't appear to be standing on anything other than OMGUS. What are those other reasons you mention?

[Oman]

Adel isn't voting me, doesn't feel I'm scum. Explain the OMGUS there please.

I'm afraid Adel just made you look terribly dumb, Oman.

With Adel, I'm used to it. Thats what happens when you argue with intellectual superiours.

[Jitsu]

Not much new to add at this point. I think there is a possibility Adel and/or Jerubbaal could be scum, but at the moment, I think it is low.

Adel and Jerubbaal at least seem to be defending themselves by rebutting the points against them though. Flay's "oops" explanation left something to be desired. If Flay's problem with the Setael wagon all along was how quickly the votes came, I would think he would have just said that. If he did say something incoherent due to a late night post, I would have expected him to acknowledge the mistake and clarify what he meant much sooner without needing to be prodded to do so.

I also haven't liked Flay's assertions that us thinking he is that transparent as scum is ridiculous. I don't like it when people play badly and then use that to say that they can't be scum.

Maybe Flay just hasn't spent a lot of time with this game due to being busy with modding and other things -- that's possible. If I remember right, Flay did give that as a reason for not posting, but I don't think he gave that as a reason for his inconsistent play, though.

At this point, I believe the evidence against Flay and Setael is better than that I've heard against Jerubbaal and Adel. Also, learning Flay's alignment should give us good information to go on tomorrow. At this point, I'm still happy where my vote is.

[Mr. Flay]

If I understand what Adel has said about his methods at all (which, admittedly, is not much), a lot of his decisions seem to be based on profiling, and there's only so much profit in arguing profiles.

This doesn't make any sense to me. This

sounds

like you're giving anyone who approaches the game on theory a pass, and that sounds "sloppy" to use a favorite word in this game. The game is about applying theory to specific cases and using THAT to discern the correct action. I think you're being deliberately vague in your support of Adel here.

I would also like to know why I'm being linked to Adel, other than not minding his style of play so much.

Also because you agree with each other a lot. There are only so many people talking at this point, and only a few seem "linked" in their opinions. One set is me and Setael. Another is you and Adel. Hence the stalemate.

I also haven't liked Flay's assertions that us thinking he is that transparent as scum is ridiculous. I don't like it when people play badly and then use that to say that they can't be scum.

That's not what I said. I said I don't behave like that when I'm scum, because it's sub-optimal play. If you think I'm purposefully playing

badly

in order to get myself lynched as scum, I'm not sure I can talk you out of that...

There are still too many damn fence sitters. I'll probably get a chance to compile a list later today, if someone else doesn't do so first.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 1063

Vote Count as of Post 1047

Abstract Actuary (1):

Setael

Mr. Flay(3):

Adel, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Adel(2):

Oman, Mr. Flay

Not Voting (3):

Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, curiouskarmadog

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

(Edited for correctionness)

I am currently being forgiving on activity levels in deference to the holidays, but prods will be coming out soon.

[curiouskarmadog]

I am back (no need to prod)...will get caught up in the next couple of days.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm here. I keep thinking I'm waiting for more arguments and defenses from Mr. Flay, Adel and Oman, but I don't think any are coming. As it stands despite not suspecting him at all coming into the day, Mr. Flay is my top suspect, followed by Setael.

Adel, have you revealed everything you have to reveal? If there is more information coming before the end of the day, when is it coming?

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

[curiouskarmadog]

I'm here. I keep thinking I'm waiting for more arguments and defenses from Mr. Flay, Adel and Oman, but I don't think any are coming. As it stands despite not suspecting him at all coming into the day, Mr. Flay is my top suspect, followed by Setael.

please provide 2-3 reasons why Flay is now your top suspect.

Also, why did feel it was important to let us know, going into today, you didnt suspect fflay at all.

[Jitsu]

That's not what I said. I said I don't behave like that when I'm scum, because it's sub-optimal play. If you think I'm purposefully playing

badly

in order to get myself lynched as scum, I'm not sure I can talk you out of that...

I don't think you are purposefully playing badly. I think that you either made some mistakes and are scrambling to recover, or that you just haven't given the game your full effort.

If the latter is true, I'd like you to state your suspicions and lay out a case against your preferred suspect(s). My vote is NOT immovable and I'd like to hear your thoughts spelled out.

[Adel]

hmmm, why could I have backed off of jerubbaal? Miztef's revealed alignment may have had something to do with it.

~~~

If Flay had been too busy and distracted, that makes it seem even more probable to me that he made mistakes. Who specifically has accused him of making sloppy mistakes? IIRC that was his characterization of the accusations against him. I think both arguments are red herrings, and should be discarded.

~~~

No I don't have anything else to reveal.

~~~

Oman's vote on me still seems a little odd.

~~~

Flay seems more like a tactical lurker who was brought out of the shadows to me than a distracted & overburdened member of the mafiascum community. I also don't buy that he is too careful of a player to be "transparent scum" especially since most of what links Setael to Flay is the posts by Setael and not Flay's. Regardless, it isn't the mistakes that scum make, but how well they talk their way out of them that counts.

~~~

If Flay is revealed to be town, I'll do another careful reread of his posts, paying particular attention to what he says on his way to the noose.

~~~

@Flay: What are the chances that Setael is scum, attacking your attackers as a subtle way of budding up to you? How scummy do you think she is?

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm here. I keep thinking I'm waiting for more arguments and defenses from Mr. Flay, Adel and Oman, but I don't think any are coming. As it stands despite not suspecting him at all coming into the day, Mr. Flay is my top suspect, followed by Setael.

please provide 2-3 reasons why Flay is now your top suspect.

Also, why did feel it was important to let us know, going into today, you didnt suspect fflay at all.

The main reason I am suspicious of Mr. Flay has been his play today. First he somewhat led the charge against Setael and then unvoted because the wagon was moving too fast. Since then he has thrown out a couple of weak arguments for other players and then backed off of those arguments when no one joins his wagon. It seems like he is just trying to get the spotlight on anyone else. And then most importantly is his rather lazy and weak attempts to defend himself.

I wanted to point it out because I thought it was odd. Others can correct me if they feel differently, but I thought Mr. Flay was rather low on the suspect list coming into this day. So he had almost no negative attention before today and now he is our top suspect - but it isn't for anything he did on previous days, it is for how he acted today.

[Sudo_Nym]

I admit I'm still on the fence regarding Adel and Flay. Like many, I'm convinced one of them is scum; but I don't feel confidant saying which one. Gun to my head, I'd probably go with Flay, just because I think Adel came off a bit better in their exchange. Like most things, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong.

[Mr. Flay]

After 9 days, that's what we get??!?

[curiouskarmadog]

I think Adel came off a bit better in their exchange. Like most things, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong.

comments like this is why I am not currently putting flay at -1..this sort of smells like he is covering his ass if/when flay turns out town.

of course, he is also throwing suspicion on Flay without actually voting him too.....


I dont like flay's reaction to Sudo either..

ugh..

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, that was my quick before-I-drive-to-work reply, and partially based on frustration of almost having replaced Sudo in another game (that I'm modding).

I want to hear Sudo_Nym weigh in much more specifically on myself, Adel, and Setael as potential lynches for today. After nine days, I want a little more than "well, I'm leaning Flay, but I might be wrong". Which of Adel's arguments do you like better? Which of mine do you disagree with?

Oman, where's that jeruubaal reread?