Open 44 - Twofold Mafia: GAME OVER! before 506

[shaft.ed]

Just curious how many other people have noticed Tyler's cop tells and for how long have they noticed them for?

[shaft.ed]

Also Rishi why are you avoiding this thread? This is the second day I have seen you post in multiple other games yet this thread gets no attention. Given the situation I'd suspect you would be very interested in what is happening.

[Rishi]

I am interested in this game. Sorry about that. I didn't realize I was being quiet. I agree that the person that we don't lynch (provided we lynch Dasq or Tyler) is probably dead, but I think it's better to figure out who is scum. If we lynch scum (hopefully Scum B), then it's possible that both scum groups will target the cop (too dangerous to let him get another investigation). That'd leave 2 townies, 1 Mafia A and 1 Mafia B. Still, a tough road for the town, but better than other scenarios.

I am really up in the air about this one. I've wanted to lynch Tyler since Day 1, but lately I've had trouble trusting Dasq. I'm legitimately torn here.

[Dasquian]

it's possible that both scum groups will target the cop (too dangerous to let him get another investigation).

Huh. If that's not a blatant attempt to dig yourself out of the hole you're in tonight, I don't know what is. Regardless of whether I or Tyler get lynched today, there is no way scum can afford not to cross-kill - a scum who doesn't cross-kill is going to be facing enemy scum in a very, very small end-game, drastically increasing the chances of a mutually fatal shoot-out.

You're scum and you're cornered. Two down, one to go. My money's still on aioqwe.

[shaft.ed]

it's possible that both scum groups will target the cop (too dangerous to let him get another investigation).

Huh. If that's not a blatant attempt to dig yourself out of the hole you're in tonight, I don't know what is. Regardless of whether I or Tyler get lynched today, there is no way scum can afford not to cross-kill - a scum who doesn't cross-kill is going to be facing enemy scum in a very, very small end-game, drastically increasing the chances of a mutually fatal shoot-out.

You're scum and you're cornered. Two down, one to go. My money's still on aioqwe.

I've got to agree with Dasq wholeheartedly here. Most likely result of today is a prisoner's dilemma, cop will have no bearing on that. But given that I think Rishi is A it doesn't really help me much on who Dasq may be.

[Claus]

Claus, you were pushing hard for a case on aioqwe yesterday. I found the case a bid odd because Tyler's play has been pretty similar, yet you rated Tyler with the highest town rating and aioqwe wth the highest scum rating. Now today you seem to have backed off of aioqwe. Any reason for not pushing him today?

Because my case on aioqwe is based more on his lone scumtells, than on his linked play. There is a 50% chance, for me, that Aioqwe is B mafia, but I'm pretty sure that the fake cop is B mafia. So today is more helpful to try and find the fake doc, than pushing for an Aioqwe lynch.

Also, regarding Tyler. No, I don't think that his play is pretty similar to Aioqwe's play. My case on Aioqwe cames because the disparity on what he says and what he votes, while Tyler voted for lordy while pushing for the wagon all time along. Sorry, I don't know how can you say that the play of the two is similar.

=====================

Just curious how many other people have noticed Tyler's cop tells and for how long have they noticed them for?

TBH, I just noticed his tells after re-reading him and Dasquian today. Before that, I thought those "the town will regret killing me" were bravado of a vanilla townie. But, I don't really look for power rolerhood when I'm re-reading people, unless they have claimed. I prefer to look mostly for inconsistencies between words and actions.

=====================

Now, I have no time for deep re-reads until the 28th, and my notes in this game are on my lab, where I won't go until the 24th. So don't expect much more from me than commenting out of memory, and answering questions

If we bag the fake cop, the best case for town is a double cross kill, and the worst case is a double town kill, which leaves us at 1:1:1. the 2:1:1 case is IDENTICAL to 1:1:1 except that instead of no-lynching, we'll be lynching a townie - I'll gladly vote myself in that scenario.

If we bag the true cop, the fake cop will certainly die, and we will face either a 1:1:1, or a 2:1:0.

Since there is not THAT much difference, and discussion is slowing down, I'll:

vote: Dasquian

[Rishi]

it's possible that both scum groups will target the cop (too dangerous to let him get another investigation).

Huh. If that's not a blatant attempt to dig yourself out of the hole you're in tonight, I don't know what is. Regardless of whether I or Tyler get lynched today, there is no way scum can afford not to cross-kill - a scum who doesn't cross-kill is going to be facing enemy scum in a very, very small end-game, drastically increasing the chances of a mutually fatal shoot-out.

You're scum and you're cornered. Two down, one to go. My money's still on aioqwe.

I'm not scum, though. I always come across as scummy for some reason - not sure why. You can do a meta-read on me to verify this.

[TylerJ]

ahhhh! The thrill to know that your only hanging on by slight indecision can drive you insane. Of course that is what makes this game fun.

Okay so theirs only one cop. Then

Vote: Dasq

. Dasq I have to give it to you, You have some talent in this game. I just hope your luck comes to an end.


As far as more breadcrumbs, I didn't leave anymore. I only left some in the first place in attempt that someone would see it and get off my back. Panzer saw it, unfortunately he basically yelled it out. Then again it could be fortunate for me now... I have written my case, and I know the decision is hard for the town, but your going to have to decide some time.

Also, Dasq your right you didn't leave bread crumbs, How could you? You were to busy trying to look town, to act cop would have been idiocy because you would make yourself a target to mafia, and cops would corner you. However, you saw that now was the best time to change your act to a fake cop.

[somestrangeflea]

So, I finally have a reason to post!

Dasquian - 2 (Claus, TylerJ)

Not Voting - Dasquian, aioqwe, Rishi, shaft.ed

6 alive, 4 to lynch.

[shaft.ed]

I'm still going to take some time to read up on this decision. I'm fairly certain now that the possible scum scenarios are:
Rishi=A
If Dasq B then aioqwe B
If Tyler B then Claus B

I'm finding Claus to be playing quite townie today, so this links to Tyler who is not behaving so townie today, but seems to have a better history for being a Cop.

Haven't gotten a good read on aioqwe today but was finding him as possible mafia ever since his unreasoned lordy vote. Since he pairs with Dasq who I really had no suspicion of being a Cop until his claim this looks bad for Dasq. Also Dasq is certainly the least likely of either to be Mafia A so he is definitely the safer cop to vote for.

I think I'm leaning towards the Dasq vote barring any major relevations of my reread, but I'm not going to rush this. I'm sure there won't be a lot going on over the Holidays anyway.

[Rishi]

How come shaft.ed almost never votes?

[shaft.ed]

Let me see the person I want to vote for will be put at L-1, therefore if I'm wrong Tyler can be hammered ending the days discussion.

Yesterday I really really really wanted to hammer Tobi, but was beaten to it by Claus.

Where's your vote btw?

[Rishi]

Where's your vote btw?

Vote: TylerJ

Gonna trust my gut. Could be swayed.

[shaft.ed]

OK I think I've made up my mind for the day, but I need to get a better read on aioqwe before this thing goes to night.

[Rishi]

OK I think I've made up my mind for the day, but I need to get a better read on aioqwe before this thing goes to night.

Why? He's not in danger of being lynched and, as a claimed vanilla townie, you have no night action. If he is killed during the night, then you won't need a read on him.

Are you scum? Is this why you need the information?

[shaft.ed]

Yeah there's absolutely no need to know what aioqwe's alignment is [/sarcasm]

The optimal play for today is to identify all three mafia, and lynch one of the mafia B team. The remaining mafia will be forced to kill each other to get an end-game they have a decent shot of winning. Failing that, if we lynch town than we have a chance of a win at end-game but depend on mafia A killing one of mafia B.

Either way we need to not only try for a mafia-B-lynch today, but make sure that the remaining scum are pretty certain on who each other are and therefore finish each other off in the night.

We need to influence the scum as much as possible today in order to achieve cross-kills. I'm not happy with how fast the votes have gone down today. And Aioqwe has posted almost nothing today except Helpful advice to mafia on how to claim, and a mis-calculation of my numbers to make it look like lynching a cop was not a great idea. Both plays decidedly anti-town. However I have seen hardly anything on how he stands toward the other players in this game, I would seriously like to get more information from him going into night because a) it may help scum target the proper player and b) there is a reasonable mathematical chance that we will be in LYLO tommorow and any extra information for the town going into that will be helpful.

[aioqwe]

Helpful advice to mafia on how to claim

You posted claim outcomes. I posted speculation on possible claim outcomes. I never posted 'advice'. So, how is my post significantly more anti-town?

and a mis-calculation of my numbers to make it look like lynching a cop was not a great idea.

Misinterpretation of cross-kills. I was assuming purely random play whereas you assumed the mafia would cross kill fake cop. I'm all for lynching out of the cop pool.

BTW, shaft, what's your evidence for Claus/tyler and me/dasq? What do you see that relates the 2 in each pair?

[TylerJ]

Just waiting... Can't think of anything to add at the point...

[Claus]

I'm finding Claus to be playing quite townie today, so this links to Tyler who is not behaving so townie today, but seems to have a better history for being a Cop.

O.O I'm acting more townie today? I don't think I'm acting at all differently than when I did yesterday. Could you elaborate on that?

The link Claus-Tyler is very easy to make. Afterall, since yesterday I'm saying that Dasq is scummy, and since only one of Dasq-Tyler is scum, if I'm going to push for Dasq, I'll end up defending Tyler.

On one hand, those are a very naive links, I think you wouldn't run so fast towards them. On the other hand, if you are the remaining Mafia B, you may be trying to guide mafia A away from you, by setting these "shut" cases of "Dasquian scum = Aioqwe Partner", "Tyler scum = Claus Partner".

I think if each of us make their case about why they think one or the other to be scum and vote them, there will be plenty of info come tomorrow to figure out who is/are the last scum.
:-/

[Dasquian]

Sorry I haven't been involved more when we're at what is basically the most important point in the game - the holiday season and associated festivities/extra work have overtaken me somewhat.

I would like Tyler to list who he thinks is scummy, on the basis that

when

he shows up as scum it will be very interesting information to analyse; I can certainly see why he'd be unwilling to get stuck in but I think it's important that he does.

[aioqwe]

seeing as dasq is requesting tyler to do so, why don't you as well?

You said rishi/tob and you're thinking tyler/aio. Can you elaborate?

[Rishi]

This is a good point, but we should go back through the thread and see who hasn't posted a scum list yet. We need those before we go to night, because if people turn up as scum tonight we'll want their lists.

Don't have time to do this right now.

[Dasquian]

Well, I already said I think you two are scum. I think Rishi is well-connected with Tobi due to his attempt to defuse the bandwagon against him. I haven't gone back to do the Tyler/Tobi link check so I haven't gone back to check Tyler/aioqwe links either, but I find aioqwe most scummy on his own merits - lurking, ambivalence, not getting too stuck in, etc.

The Claus/Tyler connection is a possibility but I just don't find Claus as scummy.

I'll try to rustle up a post with some more meat soon, but see previous disclaimers about festive AFKness.

[shaft.ed]

Helpful advice to mafia on how to claim

You posted claim outcomes. I posted speculation on possible claim outcomes. I never posted 'advice'. So, how is my post significantly more anti-town?

Sorry, I think it was more that you were saying "If they claim Mafia A they won't be lynched." That seemed more out of the realm of normal outcomes since it was something that I don't think they would have thought of. But running through the scenario a bit more I wish they had claimed A, if they were telling the truth they'd be NK'd and if they were lying, Mafia A would have likely NK'd them. Doesn't seem you meant this as a trap though.

and a mis-calculation of my numbers to make it look like lynching a cop was not a great idea.

Misinterpretation of cross-kills. I was assuming purely random play whereas you assumed the mafia would cross kill fake cop. I'm all for lynching out of the cop pool.

I didn't notice you stating whether you were with the idea of a cop lynch. That's part of the reason I wanted to hear more from you.

BTW, shaft, what's your evidence for Claus/tyler and me/dasq? What do you see that relates the 2 in each pair?

Another reason I want to hear more from you. You're basically put there as the only open spot. I have the strongest read on Rishi so he's got my Mafia A position. Then we know Tyler and Dasq can't be aligned, and that you and Claus can't be aligned. I'm placing Claus and Tyler together because of Claus' vote on Dasq, the fact that he has previously stated that Dasq is scummy and the fact that he's been consistent about having Tyler in his pro-town slot from what I can remember. So this means there are Tyler-Claus links and Claus-Dasq separations. Since Claus is placed where he is and Rishi is likely A then you end up paired with Dasq. But I have recently be noticing Rishi-Dasq connections, so it is possible that you are the remaining mafia A and Rishi pairs with Dasq.

[shaft.ed]

I'm finding Claus to be playing quite townie today, so this links to Tyler who is not behaving so townie today, but seems to have a better history for being a Cop.

O.O I'm acting more townie today? I don't think I'm acting at all differently than when I did yesterday. Could you elaborate on that?

First I did have you listed on my border between town and scum yesterday, primarily because I couldn't get a good read. And I think you were looking more townie towards the days end as you were actively creating new evidence.

In regards to today, I very much doubt you're Mafia A, however you may have hammered yesterday for distancing seeing as Tobi's lynch was inevitable. It may also explain why you weren't worried about him being a cop (though I doubt any of us would have thought as such). Then assuming your not Mafia A here as Rishi and Aioqwe are both more likely in my book, you're then either town or Mafia B. Mafia B being likely to have split between Cop and Town would very much like to not lynch from the cop pool since it gaurantees oen of their players will not survive the night. But you were the first to bring up this idea. So if I don't think you're Mafia A and you're proposing a strategy that's not in Mafia B's best interest you are looking much more townie in my eyes. I suppose I should add that on the off chance that Mafia A is in the cop pool and the town is lucky enough not to lynch him today you would be my top candidate for Mafia B.

The link Claus-Tyler is very easy to make. Afterall, since yesterday I'm saying that Dasq is scummy, and since only one of Dasq-Tyler is scum, if I'm going to push for Dasq, I'll end up defending Tyler.

I addressed the very basic interactions above in my reply to aioqwe. While they are superficial I think they are also valid.

On one hand, those are a very naive links, I think you wouldn't run so fast towards them. On the other hand, if you are the remaining Mafia B, you may be trying to guide mafia A away from you, by setting these "shut" cases of "Dasquian scum = Aioqwe Partner", "Tyler scum = Claus Partner".

I guess I can understand you not wanting these contigencies cases, but that's how I view the game for the most part. If you wanted a rundown of scumminess in the townie pool I'd rank them Rishi > aioqwe > Claus. If you want connections I think Rishi has the strongest links to Dasq, aioqwe seems to have neutral links (which some say indicates scum avoidance of eachother) and Claus has negative connections. I haven't quite finished getting Tyler interactions but Claus seems most tied to Tyler, not sure yet about Rishi and aioqwe.