Newbie 1767 | Winter | Endgame

SensFan · Post Post #600 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:43 pm

In post 599, Raskolnikov wrote:I've won many games through speculation and cooperation, what do you have to show for yourself?

What I have to show for myself is not fakeclaiming immediately after someone pointed out there was no imminent need to claim, then immediately retracting it immediately after someone suggested not to talk about roles, then immediately posting incorrect deductions about what the Scum know.

lucca261 · Post Post #601 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:44 pm

VOTE: Loopdan

Loopdan · Post Post #602 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:44 pm

In post 597, Raskolnikov wrote:I would argue, if BP exists, no death n1 implies BP was hit n1 and therefore scum would already be aware of who it is, so them claiming only gives town information.

Scum knows who they targeted N1, but scum doesn't know if their target was BP or if a doc made a save. If there is a doc they need to save that player again tonight, as scum will try to hit them again in case it was the BP.

Or am I missing something?

lucca261 · Post Post #603 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:46 pm

wait. misread something.

UNVOTE: Loopdan

Raskolnikov · Post Post #604 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:46 pm

Okay look, if it's incorrect you can argue why it's incorrect. You can't dismiss everything out of hand and just shut down discussion completely.

The fake was definitely unorthodox but it would looked really sick if it worked and I think if you run that in 10 or so games it'll work more often than not, even the downside is low because I retracted as you're supposed to when the gambit fails.

Loopdan · Post Post #605 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:47 pm

In post 603, lucca261 wrote:wait. misread something.

UNVOTE: Loopdan

what did you misread?

lucca261 · Post Post #606 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:49 pm

In post 605, Loopdan wrote:
In post 603, lucca261 wrote:wait. misread something.

UNVOTE: Loopdan
what did you misread?

thought the posts made by Brie on page 23 were yours.

Loopdan · Post Post #607 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:49 pm

Basically what Rask did at EoD would have been scummy (and stupid) if Sobolev had flipped town.

With a scum flip it is NAI.

Raskolnikov · Post Post #608 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:51 pm

In post 602, Loopdan wrote:
In post 597, Raskolnikov wrote:I would argue, if BP exists, no death n1 implies BP was hit n1 and therefore scum would already be aware of who it is, so them claiming only gives town information.
Scum knows who they targeted N1, but scum doesn't know if their target was BP or if a doc made a save. If there is a doc they need to save that player again tonight, as scum will try to hit them again in case it was the BP.

Or am I missing something?

My bad, I thought scum already knew if it was bp setup or doc setup for some reason.

lucca261 · Post Post #609 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:54 pm

I think Huntress is the right vote tonight.

SensFan · Post Post #610 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:55 pm

In post 607, Loopdan wrote:Basically what Rask did at EoD would have been scummy (and stupid) if Sobolev had flipped town.

With a scum flip it is NAI.

Normally, I agree with you.

The fact is it was done *immediately* after I strongly implied that no one should claim.
Then today, at the first sign that maybe we should probe for a CC, *right after I made it clear that no one should discuss their roles* Rask again brings it up.

If it was Town-motivated, why the hell would you back off of it? There was no reasonable threat of an immediate counterclaim. TownRask should be aiming to make it tonight and get shot.

lucca261 · Post Post #611 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:56 pm

380 and 396.

weird.

Raskolnikov · Post Post #612 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:00 pm

Can I get some thought on huntress?

It's early but I fail to see a good alternative really, loopdan and sens pushed fred from even d1 so it's not like they hopped and a hardbus is rare enough to rule out in the majority of cases.
Brie and lucca both held similar positions hovering around the hammer spot (I don't think it's that unlikely thebrie could've hammered instead so thinking of it as brie-off lucca-on doesn't seem fair either), but didn't seem to play in any way to look good or to plan ahead and make others look bad for it.

Huntress I can some weirdness in her d1 priorities, pointing out the thing about fred early but not really focusing on it and then d2 she tried to setup associations when she did vote him.

Raskolnikov · Post Post #613 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:05 pm

@Sensfan

Maybe this is another "I haven't played since 2008" thing, but in meta nowadays people WILL either miss or disregard most warnings and disclaimers and just CC. I know I would at least, but in a newbie too there's the inexperience factor too. Remember echovision forgetting to see or disregarding your "I will hammer next post if there's no claim" if you will.

lucca261 · Post Post #614 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:05 pm

In post 612, Raskolnikov wrote:Can I get some thought on huntress?

It's early but I fail to see a good alternative really, loopdan and sens pushed fred from even d1 so it's not like they hopped and a hardbus is rare enough to rule out in the majority of cases.
Brie and lucca both held similar positions hovering around the hammer spot (I don't think it's that unlikely thebrie could've hammered instead so thinking of it as brie-off lucca-on doesn't seem fair either), but didn't seem to play in any way to look good or to plan ahead and make others look bad for it.

Huntress I can some weirdness in her d1 priorities, pointing out the thing about fred early but not really focusing on it and then d2 she tried to setup associations when she did vote him.

Yeah. Huntress is definitely a possible partner for Fred/Sobo.

One thing in particular pings me about it:

Hi Sobolev!

I was thinking of switching my vote to Loopdan but having read your posts, mainly 503, I think it's better where it is. Why try and make excuses for Fred? I know you're in the same slot but you can't know what he was thinking.

This quote by Huntress feels like once Sobolev had a good answer, she would've switched her vote to Loopdan. But if things didn't work out, she would be voting Fred.

But Brie definitely has some strange interactions with Fred and her read on his spot is quite strange. Like, in the middle of D2, saying things like there's not enough data to have a read on him?

Loopdan · Post Post #615 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:07 pm

In post 611, lucca261 wrote:380 and 396.

weird.

yep.
Huntress needs to get more involved today.

lucca261 · Post Post #616 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:12 pm

I think the partner is between Brie and Huntress. Thoughts?

Loopdan · Post Post #617 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:27 pm

In post 554, Sickofit1138 wrote:NO DONT HAMMER SOBLEV

In post 555, Sickofit1138 wrote:Unless he does something REALLY bad today, Soblev is NOT our lynch for today.

I think it's likely Sick tracked Fred/Soblev night one and Soblev didn't do the kill attempt.
I think scum thought ^those posts weree Sick saying he doc'd Soblev and that's why scum NK'd Sick.

Raskolnikov · Post Post #618 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:30 pm

In post 616, lucca261 wrote:I think the partner is between Brie and Huntress. Thoughts?

Yeah. Logically brie could fit because she did l-1 and back off, but I don't scumread thebrie much overall anymore. Around the end of the day thebrie actually retracted a lot of her scumread onto you lucca, which I don't see much scum motivation for. I think if frederick wagon died down you were probably the next in line so I'm not sure why she'd do that.

lucca261 · Post Post #619 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:53 pm

In post 618, Raskolnikov wrote:
In post 616, lucca261 wrote:I think the partner is between Brie and Huntress. Thoughts?
Yeah. Logically brie could fit because she did l-1 and back off, but I don't scumread thebrie much overall anymore. Around the end of the day thebrie actually retracted a lot of her scumread onto you lucca, which I don't see much scum motivation for. I think if frederick wagon died down you were probably the next in line so I'm not sure why she'd do that.

I don't think this means a lot. Sobolev entered the game by saying that me vs sicko was TvS. He was trying to get one of us to vote the other. Brie voting Sicko would go in line with this line of thought. Sobolev made himself open to both me and Sicko.

Fredrick E Campbell · Post Post #620 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:19 pm

Sorry I disappeared. I had a really bad fever last week. Was in bed for 4 whole days. Enjoy the game and good luck finding the second scum.
By the way, I'm 14, Raskolnikov.

Spoiler: Cute photo of a penguin

mhsmith0 · Post Post #621 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:56 pm

Frederick you were replaced and your slot was lynched. Stop posting.

TheBrie · Post Post #622 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:39 pm

I'm going to give a summation of my reads.
I'm a little confused. That soft CC was a lie? How do we know that?
One odd thing that strikes me is that scum mustn't think Rask is a PR, or that would have been the NK.
Also Town!Rask wouldn't have known for sure that Sobolev was scum. If Sobolev had flipped BP, that'd be certain lynch for Rask.
Likewise I don't understand all of what Sensfan said. But Sens couldn't be the other scum.
No reason to think Loopdown isn't town.
Lucca doing the hammer doesn't say much either way. Soblolev was going to be dead either way. And, yes I would have hammered as Rask said to if I'd been online.
I was completely surprised by the Sickofit flip. His attitude had irritated me and I'm afraid I wasn't objective enough. Besides he thought Sobolev was a bad lynch and that Lucca was the right lynch. We've also got to reconsider Selynee's odd vote for Rask. I'm guessing that was from her findings as tracker, but she wasn't sure it was good or bad.
And I had a little look through Huntress's interactions with Fred. Except that she put the first vote in him for D2, she's not pushed him. And that vote probably isn't strange with an experienced player with a bad partner.

I'm wavering between voting Huntress and Rask now.

TheBrie · Post Post #623 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:50 pm

In post 617, Loopdan wrote: I think it's likely Sick tracked Fred/Soblev night one and Soblev didn't do the kill attempt.
I think scum thought ^those posts weree Sick saying he doc'd Soblev and that's why scum NK'd Sick.

That makes sense.

Huntress · Post Post #624 (ISO) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:32 am

In post 231, Raskolnikov wrote:
In post 230, Raskolnikov wrote:
In post 226, Selynee wrote:Because I was pretty much useless D1 and didn't vote (though I wanted to vote Echo), my starting vote is going to be pretty risky, but I guess at this point a 50-50 read is worth it.

VOTE: Raskolnikov
I really hope you didn't just do what I think you did...
Actually nvm.

I interpreted Selynee's post as meaning that she had either blocked or tracked Rask:
1. A block would mean that Rask was either the target or mafia who tried to kill,
2. A track would mean that Rask was either the doctor or mafia who tried to kill,
hence why it was a 50-50 read and a risk.

Rask's responses looked like a town reaction to me, but not that of a VT. However, now that we know Selynee was a tracker, and Sickofit wasn't protected, it looks like Rask was the one who tried to make the kill night one.

Vote: Rask

The above was the reason I was town reading Sickofit and Rask yesterDay, and also the reason I didn't want to to discuss my townreads when Loopdan asked me for them. And he still hasn't answered my question as to why he wanted them.

I've got to go out now so I'll follow up the other posts in a few hours.