Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!


User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1600 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 1:48 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

Looked over my posts. There were a couple of places where I expressed concern over the vig getting killed, although my concern was about the vig getting killed on EITHER of the next 2 nights. I didn't focus on the possibility of the vig getting killed the very next night.

From post 1426:
Trojan Horse wrote:Okay, gave it some thought. While my opinions have shifted slightly, I still think we need to lynch someone today.

Here's why: let's assume that the vig does not kill anymore, as MoS wants. (And actually, I now think that it IS best that the vig doesn't kill, unless it's necessary to save the game.) So day 4 dawns with 5 players left, and now we must lynch both scum, one by one. And what happens if we do? If there's a surviving cultie, we STILL lose. The vig would have to be the other survivor at the end for us to win, and I really doubt the scum would miss the vig with both of their nightkills.

That's the one thing MoS's plan doesn't cover: the chance that a cultie survives to the end, and that the vig does not. Pretty likely to happen too; if there is a cultie, it's probably Tar, and the scum aren't going to kill him.
From post 1428 (the bold is from the preceding post by MoS, and the rest is my response):
Trojan Horse wrote:
1. Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4?
If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

...

3.
Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same.
Because the scum are more interested in killing the vig than the cultie. If they figure out who the vig is, the vig is dead meat. If they figure out who the cultie is, they'll let him live, and shoot someone likelier to be the vig.
User avatar
vollkan
vollkan
The Interrogator
User avatar
User avatar
vollkan
The Interrogator
The Interrogator
Posts: 5373
Joined: March 29, 2007
Location: Australia

Post Post #1601 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:16 pm

Post by vollkan »

@TH: I said the sorts of things you cite above, but that wasn't what MoS was asking about. If I understand MoS correctly, he meant discussing the vig specifically in relation to No Lynch.
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1602 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 7:18 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Trojan, now that you quoted that for me, why did you feel, in that first quote, that the vig was likely to die?
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1603 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 7:34 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

Simple probability. Remember, I said that it was likely that the vig would die during one of the next two nights, not necessarily the next night.

The scenario we were discussing was where we no-lynch/no-vig, and then if we mislynch, the vig can try to save us the following night. Assuming the scum had no info about who the vig was, they would first have a 1 in 4 shot of hitting the vig, and then a 1 in 2 shot. And if the scum did have any idea about who the vig might be, the odds would be even more in their favor.
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1604 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:51 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a
1/3
chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you
knew
something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if
he knew it was coming...
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1605 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 8:06 am

Post by Trojan Horse »

*bangs head against wall*

3/4 chance of missing the vig on their first attempt. And if they missed, 1/2 chance of missing the vig on their second attempt. All together, 3/8 chance of missing on both attempts; 5/8 chance of hitting on either attempt. And that's if they chose randomly; the real chances would be higher. If it got down to 2 mafia, 1 vig, and 1 other protowner (which is the best we could have after no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch), I think the odds would be much greater than 50-50 of the scum hitting the vig that night.

Learn some math, MoS.
User avatar
tyhess
tyhess
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
tyhess
Goon
Goon
Posts: 599
Joined: August 30, 2007

Post Post #1606 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 8:09 am

Post by tyhess »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a
1/3
chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you
knew
something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if
he knew it was coming...

Actually it's be 3/4 chance of the vig dieing-you have a 25% chance of NK the vig, and then a 50% chance=75% chance of the vig dieing. However, I would have agreed with the no lynch-I thought it was the best idea at the time and still think that based on the info we (you) had, that you should've No Lynched.
User avatar
pwayne66
pwayne66
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
pwayne66
Goon
Goon
Posts: 791
Joined: April 9, 2007

Post Post #1607 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:13 am

Post by pwayne66 »

Again with the effing math. Anyway, suspicion of TH's comment seems to hinge on the belief that the mafia has an information role. This was originally TH's thought and I am skeptical to accept it. TH had this to say prior to making the suggestion:
TH wrote:But how could they believe that Oman was the vig? He hadn't dropped any vig tells, as far as I could see.

Which can be viewed as scum effing with us, or the way I took it at the time; uncertainity. I didn't think that Oman dropped any tells either. If he didn't that leaves us with luck or a information role. I haven't played many games, but scum information roles seem rare. The odds that scum hit the vig based on luck seems unlikely too, because if they didn't think he was the vig, then what possible advantage was there to killing him.

Also, I wonder, if TH had gathered the information that Oman was the Vig through a mafia investigation, why would he suggest that was how the mafia did it?

The existance of such a role also might have given a heads up to the mafia about the existance of a vig prior to the game begining. It would be interesting to gauge those reaction the morning of day 2.
User avatar
Guardian
Guardian
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Guardian
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4703
Joined: March 28, 2007
Location: Warning: Always looks scummy. Is town.

Post Post #1608 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 12:24 pm

Post by Guardian »

Iammars is your backup mod!

Thanks, treat him just like you'd treat me, and anything he says goes. :twisted:!
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1609 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:06 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Trojan Horse wrote:*bangs head against wall*

3/4 chance of missing the vig on their first attempt. And if they missed, 1/2 chance of missing the vig on their second attempt. All together, 3/8 chance of missing on both attempts; 5/8 chance of hitting on either attempt. And that's if they chose randomly; the real chances would be higher. If it got down to 2 mafia, 1 vig, and 1 other protowner (which is the best we could have after no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch), I think the odds would be much greater than 50-50 of the scum hitting the vig that night.

Learn some math, MoS.
Err, what's your point? 5/8 is 62% which is less than the 66% that I suggested. Are you saying that it's actually
less
likely than what I hypothesized the worst scenario to be?

Tyhess, you can't just add the probabilities, dude. That's not how statistics works. I know my numbers aren't right either, but it's definitely not 75%. Trojan's numbers seem right. I'm still trying to fathom why she bothered to prove that I overestimated the chances of the vig dying...
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1610 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:34 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a
1/3
chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%.
I saw the "2 in 6". I saw the "1/3". I focused in on that. You were way off saying that there was only a 1/3 chance of hitting the vig. But somehow, that 66% registered in my mind as you saying there was a 66% chance of them MISSING the vig. Misread that part.
Mastermind of Sin wrote:I'm still trying to fathom why
she
bothered to prove that I overestimated the chances of the vig dying...
Uh, I sure hope that was another typo, MoS :)
User avatar
vollkan
vollkan
The Interrogator
User avatar
User avatar
vollkan
The Interrogator
The Interrogator
Posts: 5373
Joined: March 29, 2007
Location: Australia

Post Post #1611 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:00 pm

Post by vollkan »

MoS wrote: Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a 1/3 chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you knew something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if he knew it was coming...
You're resorting to a fairly large amount of speculation there. That said, when I read the last sentence, I immediately thought back to that post by TH about his broken scumdar finally being repaired.

I've read the rest of this probability debate and I don't see what the point of it was. The probability of the vig dying N3 was 1/4. I thought the mistake I made with that enormous coloured probability thing of mine was that I took into account differing outcomes which skewed my results, rather than focusing on the "here and now" probabilities, so to speak. Thus, am I right in thinking that only the 1/4 figure was actually relevant to yesterday's decision?
User avatar
Iammars
Iammars
Mers I am not
User avatar
User avatar
Iammars
Mers I am not
Mers I am not
Posts: 2362
Joined: January 9, 2005
Location: Mars... duh.

Post Post #1612 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 2:07 am

Post by Iammars »

Vote Count

Mastermind of Sin (1) - Trojan Horse
Not Voting (4) - Everybody else
"Rolefishing is fishing for someones role. It's called fishing because it requires subtlety. When you grab a shotgun and start firing into the water, thats not fishing." - IH
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1613 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 4:38 am

Post by Trojan Horse »

As much as I like having the mod not count the vote being cast against me :-), I really have to point out his mistake. MoS is voting for me, Iammars.
User avatar
Iammars
Iammars
Mers I am not
User avatar
User avatar
Iammars
Mers I am not
Mers I am not
Posts: 2362
Joined: January 9, 2005
Location: Mars... duh.

Post Post #1614 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 6:11 am

Post by Iammars »

I'll fix it once I get mod powers. This is what happens when I try to do vote counts in my head.
"Rolefishing is fishing for someones role. It's called fishing because it requires subtlety. When you grab a shotgun and start firing into the water, thats not fishing." - IH
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1615 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 6:32 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

vollkan wrote:
MoS wrote: Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a 1/3 chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you knew something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if he knew it was coming...
You're resorting to a fairly large amount of speculation there. That said, when I read the last sentence, I immediately thought back to that post by TH about his broken scumdar finally being repaired.

I've read the rest of this probability debate and I don't see what the point of it was. The probability of the vig dying N3 was 1/4. I thought the mistake I made with that enormous coloured probability thing of mine was that I took into account differing outcomes which skewed my results, rather than focusing on the "here and now" probabilities, so to speak. Thus, am I right in thinking that only the 1/4 figure was actually relevant to yesterday's decision?
Yes, it is speculation. I'm not trying to present it as fact or even anything with strong evidence. I'm just writing down thoughts that occurred to me as I tried to figure out what the scum were planning.

Yes, the 1/4 figure is correct, we were just arguing about the probability over two nights because Trojan had made some comments yesterday about the vig dying over the next two nights. This argument was fairly pointless, but I think we're running out of relevant things to discuss at this point.
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
tyhess
tyhess
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
tyhess
Goon
Goon
Posts: 599
Joined: August 30, 2007

Post Post #1616 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:59 am

Post by tyhess »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Trojan Horse wrote:*bangs head against wall*

3/4 chance of missing the vig on their first attempt. And if they missed, 1/2 chance of missing the vig on their second attempt. All together, 3/8 chance of missing on both attempts; 5/8 chance of hitting on either attempt. And that's if they chose randomly; the real chances would be higher. If it got down to 2 mafia, 1 vig, and 1 other protowner (which is the best we could have after no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch), I think the odds would be much greater than 50-50 of the scum hitting the vig that night.

Learn some math, MoS.
Err, what's your point? 5/8 is 62% which is less than the 66% that I suggested. Are you saying that it's actually
less
likely than what I hypothesized the worst scenario to be?

Tyhess, you can't just add the probabilities, dude. That's not how statistics works. I know my numbers aren't right either, but it's definitely not 75%. Trojan's numbers seem right. I'm still trying to fathom why she bothered to prove that I overestimated the chances of the vig dying...
it didn't seem right to me-i guess that's what happens when you try to go quick becuase there are people that can see what I'm doing on the internet during theday.
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1617 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 5:40 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Yea, it happens.
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
Iammars
Iammars
Mers I am not
User avatar
User avatar
Iammars
Mers I am not
Mers I am not
Posts: 2362
Joined: January 9, 2005
Location: Mars... duh.

Post Post #1618 (ISO) » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:27 am

Post by Iammars »

I understand that posting will be slow during the holidays, which is a good thing, because it's Christmas time and you'll be spending time with your loved ones. Everyone have a Merry Christmas!

However, there better be posting/voting afterwards.
"Rolefishing is fishing for someones role. It's called fishing because it requires subtlety. When you grab a shotgun and start firing into the water, thats not fishing." - IH
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
User avatar
User avatar
Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #1619 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:17 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

I'm here. Mostly.
Permanent V/LA.
User avatar
vollkan
vollkan
The Interrogator
User avatar
User avatar
vollkan
The Interrogator
The Interrogator
Posts: 5373
Joined: March 29, 2007
Location: Australia

Post Post #1620 (ISO) » Sun Dec 23, 2007 1:58 am

Post by vollkan »

MoS wrote: Yes, the 1/4 figure is correct, we were just arguing about the probability over two nights because Trojan had made some comments yesterday about the vig dying over the next two nights. This argument was fairly pointless, but I think we're running out of relevant things to discuss at this point.
I agree with you here.

The fact that, despite the point in the game we are at, activity has plummeted and most of the discussion of late has been on probability points towards the end of meaningful discussion.

The first thing I will do after the Christmas hype is review the arguments against TH.
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1621 (ISO) » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:08 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

Just posting to say I'm still alive and still watching. Don't know how much access I'll have the next few days, but I'll do my best.
User avatar
Guardian
Guardian
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Guardian
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4703
Joined: March 28, 2007
Location: Warning: Always looks scummy. Is town.

Post Post #1622 (ISO) » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:42 pm

Post by Guardian »

Hey, I'm back, deadline for noon EST on the 30th still stands.

Thanks Iammars for taking over -- I'll need a backup mod again if this game continues past the 30th.

In case of ties, lynching will happen on a first come first serve basis.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
User avatar
User avatar
Trojan Horse
Oldest Trick in the Book
Oldest Trick in the Book
Posts: 611
Joined: April 20, 2004
Location: Southern California

Post Post #1623 (ISO) » Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:16 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

And the clock continues to tick.

Come on, you guys. I know we just had Christmas and all that, but it's time to make the final decision. I don't want the scum to win because the clock ran out. (Actually, I don't want the scum to win by ANY method, but that's another story.)

I'm here. I've cast my vote. Interrogate me. Ask me what you want. Let's nail our first scum. (I mean MoS, of course.)
User avatar
vollkan
vollkan
The Interrogator
User avatar
User avatar
vollkan
The Interrogator
The Interrogator
Posts: 5373
Joined: March 29, 2007
Location: Australia

Post Post #1624 (ISO) » Thu Dec 27, 2007 7:43 pm

Post by vollkan »

We've got just two days until deadline (and no indication that Guardian will extend it) so I will do as promised and review the TH case.

My most recent previous posts on the TH case in depth were:
Post 1532 and Post 1538 (which was basically a comment on something in the former).

The main points which surface from that are:
1) TH's repeated use of "broken scumdar" as an excuse for poor efforts in scumhunting

This is a strange issue, being one I have never encountered before. My main dilemma here is how to judge TH's behaviour. Obviously, an inability to scumhunt is not "scummy" - it is just a mark of poor pro-town ability. However, relying on an ability (real or made up) as an excuse for not making the effort is evasive and scummy (though I wish that I had some precedent for this so that I could be more confident on this point).

It is also relevant here to mention TH's sudden epiphany on the matter of MoS. After professing inability all game, he suddenly has some massive revelation that MoS is obvscum. Not only is the sudden change in behaviour bizarre, to say the least, but the arguments TH has made are hardly very persuasive - particularly to induce such a fervent attack.

2) Apologetics and damage control

I took issue with TH making arguments against himself such that he almost sounded the most scummy in his own view. He called this being "comprehensive" - does that not mean that if we take a comprehensive view of things, TH is scummy? - and leaves it that.

The issue here is what do we make of this behaviour? I interpreted it as damage control - "confess your sins you will be absolved". Now, in one of TH's posts on this matter he said:
TH wrote: Is it silly for me to add in what I expect to be the main argument against me, when I do my scumdar for everyone else? (Ok, maybe it's silly, but I did it anyway.)
TH, what was the reason you made arguments against yourself? Calling it "silly" just dodges the issue (kind of like point 1).

3) Emotional lapse by giving into pressure

This was another point which never got resolved because TH again turned it into a matter of playstyle rather than a matter of scumminess. TH just calls it a "rare moment of emotion" and leaves it at that - again making an excuse for his behaviour. Moreover, like the previous excuses, it is one that stifles debate on the subject (in that one cannot challenge the reasoning behind anything if it is simply reduced to a matter of personality)

4) Lurking lynching nightmare scenarios

Now, I initially challenged TH over the fact that, when he brought up lynching lurkers, he evaded the matter of town lurking and brought up the nightmare scenarios of "game degenerating or of scum lurking to victory." In his response, TH actually dodged my question by saying:
TH wrote: I know full well the town can also lurk. And that's what I'd like to prevent. My hope when I push for a lurker lynch is that the lurker will stop lurking, and then we won't have to lynch them. It's a threat. Now, if they won't respond to the threat, why not lynch them? In that case, they're either scum (and lynching them is good) or they're an unhelpful town (and lynching them is not so good, but at least the more helpful townies stay around). And perhaps after that lurker is lynched, the rest of the town will think twice about doing the same.

You'll note that I never pushed for a Tar lynch, despite his uber-lurking. That's because I felt that he was town (although my confidence in that has been shaken now). In the case of Flameaxe, I considered him of above average scumminess. Also, he did some lurking at a key moment: at the end of day 1, when we were all scrambling to find a lynch. So I felt a lurker-lynch of Flameaxe was justified.

So I'm not in favor of lynching all lurkers. But some should be lynched, and at least the threat of doing so can do some good.

Was there a specific push for a lurker lynch I made, which bothered you? Was it my push against Flameaxe, or was it something else I've forgotten?
In other words, TH simply says he wanted to stop town from lurking (when my question was why he did not
address
the matter of town lurking at first instance) and makes no mention at all of the nightmare scenario issue.

Here, again, we can see TH repeating the pattern he has been doing on these issues because he tries to reduce the point to a matter of theory, by saying that he believes the threat should have worked, rather than actually explaining his in-game conduct.

For now,
FoS: TH

Return to “Completed Mini Normal Games”