Open 44 - Twofold Mafia: GAME OVER! before 506

[Claus]

Aw. I was hoping that all mafia would claim vanilla and we would get a confirmed innocent.

I don't think it is likely that the remaining Mafia A would risk claiming cop. So I guess the fake cop must be from mafia B.

I'll re-read Dasquian and Tyler.

[aioqwe]

meanwhile we have 2 scum claiming town...

If we go with claus's assumption than we'll look at cops first and try to attach a partner. If we can't find a particularly good team perhaps we should look into the possibility of both B team claiming town.

I think we should wait for dasq's night results and then carry froward...

[Dasquian]

My results are JDodge and Rishi.

We need to think carefully about what to do now; I know for a fact that Tyler is scum but of course it's a my-word-against-his thing. Possibilities:

Code: Select all

 - We lynch mafia A.
    o Mafia B kill town.  Mafia B win.
 - We lynch mafia B.
    o Mafia cross-kill, we win.
    o One mafia kills the other, the other kills town.  1 mafia vs 2 town end-game.
    o Both mafia kill town.  1 vs 1 vs 1 end-game.
 - We lynch town.
    o Mafia cross-kill.  1 mafia vs 2 town end-game.
    o Mafia A kills mafia B, mafia B kills town.  1 vs 1 vs 1 end-game.
    o Mafia B kills mafia A, mafia A kills town.  Mafia B win.
    o Both mafia kill town.  Mafia B win.

The optimal play for today is to identify all three mafia, and lynch one of the mafia B team. The remaining mafia will be forced to kill each other to get an end-game they have a decent shot of winning. Failing that, if we lynch town than we have a chance of a win at end-game but depend on mafia A killing one of mafia B.

Either way we need to not only try for a mafia-B-lynch today, but make sure that the remaining scum are pretty certain on who each other are and therefore finish each other off in the night.

I am due a reread but my guess is that the scum are TylerJ, Rishi and aioqwe. I would assume Rishi to be Tobi's partner so I am pretty happy sticking my vote on Tyler, and watching aioqwe and Rishi kill each other in the night. Before I do that, though, I need to reread Tyler and Tobi's interactions because lynching Tobi's partner at this point is completely disastrous.

[Rishi]

Dasq - Thanks for those possibilities. I was trying to work that out and then my head hurt.

Tyler - Why didn't you investigate anyone Night 1?

My predictions for scum: TylerJ, aioqwe, shaft.ed

[Rishi]

Couple things occurred to me:

1. We should make everyone post a suspicion list. It would have been ten times more helpful finding out that Tobiassen was scum had he actually posted a list at one point.

2. Dasq's possibilities don't allow for one (albeit remote) possibility: Both Mafia target the same townie.

3. If it's not obvious, if we get into a 1 vs. 1 vs. 1 endgame, the town's ONLY chance to win is if the Mafia kill each other. At that point, vote No Lynch.

[Dasquian]

Good catch:

Code: Select all

 - We lynch mafia A.
    o Mafia B kill town.  Mafia B win.
 - We lynch mafia B.
    o Mafia cross-kill, we win.
    o One mafia kills the other, the other kills town.  1 mafia vs 2 town end-game.
    o Both mafia kill town.  1 vs 1 vs 1 end-game.
    o Both mafia kill the same town.  2 vs 1 vs 1 end-game.
 - We lynch town.
    o Mafia cross-kill.  1 mafia vs 2 town end-game.
    o Mafia A kills mafia B, mafia B kills town.  1 vs 1 vs 1 end-game.
    o Mafia B kills mafia A, mafia A kills town.  Mafia B win.
    o Both mafia kill town.  Mafia B win.
    o Both mafia kill the same town.  1 town, 1 mafia A, 2 mafia B left.  As far as I can tell, no chance of a town win (but maybe a draw)

[shaft.ed]

I don't think it is likely that the remaining Mafia A would risk claiming cop. So I guess the fake cop must be from mafia B.

I'll re-read Dasquian and Tyler.

I've got to agree with this sentiment. Mafia A has to remain undetectable to Mafia B throughout today's lynch and tonights NK in order to have any remote chance of winning. Putting themselves into the cop group would give Mafia B a clear path to follow.

That being said I think the correct strategy here is to lynch from the cop pool. Reasons being that if we lynch correctly we get a confirmed innocent, which the mafia will not kill and who has investigative powers. If we lynch incorrectly we at least set up one assured cross-kill, which, if the assumption that Mafia A didn't take on the cop claim is correct, will at the very least ensure us a prisoner's dilemma tommorow.

Here's a numerical breakdown on lynching from the cop pool:

Mafia B claimed cop (67%):

Lynch mafia = 3:1:1 going into night (50%)

Mafia double crosskill = 3:0:0 = town win (6.3%)
Single crosskil = 2:1 = LYLO (37.5%)
No crosskill = 2:1:1 or 1:1:1 = prisoner's dilemma (56.3%)

Lynch town = 2:2:1 going into night (50%)

Mafia double crosskill = 2:1 = LYLO (25%)
Mafia single crosskill = 1:1:1 = prisoner's dilemma (75%)
No crosskill = 0% probability

Mafia A claimed cop (33%):

Lynch mafia = 3:3 going into night (50%)

Automatic town loss

Lynch town = 2:2:1 going into night (50%)

Mafia double crosskill = 2:1 LYLO (25%)
Mafia single crosskill = 2:2 Town loss (75%)
No crosskill = 0% probability

Summary from Mafia B claimed cop:

Town win: 3.2%
LYLO: 31.3%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 65.7%
Automatic loss: 0%

Summary from Mafia A claimed cop:

Town win: 0%
LYLO: 12.5%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 0%
Automatic loss: 87.5%

Total Summary:

Town win: 1.6%
LYLO: 21.9%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 32.9%
Automatic loss: 43.8%

As you can see this plan works quite well on the assumption that Mafia didn't claim cop so that's an important point of discussion. As mentioned above, it's a pretty poor strategy for them to do so but not totally out of the question. If this is the case I'd find it highly more likely that Tyler were mafia A as he would have been forced into the claim in order to maintain his 50% chance of not being detected. If Dasq were Mafia A it'd be odd for him to start the claim chain with such a move. Also Tobi has now come up scum, and I still feel Rishi has the strongest ties to him and thus is most likely to be the remaining mafia A candidate.

[shaft.ed]

OK I will now address the cop claims. If either of you have left any breadcrumbs I'd like to see them.

I'd have to say I'm believing Tyler much more. In fact I've noticed a couple Cop tells from Tyler during the course of the game and would have found him scummy had he not claimed Cop. I'm a little surprised that he pulled a Sikario and didn't investigate N1. It should be noted that he may be attempting to copy this tactic to make him look "townish" as in 'mafia wouldn't lie like that would they?' (Sidebar this should be noted in regards to putting Night Phases over major holidays).

In regards to Dasq, I seriously don't understand his night choices. He said D1 Tobi was most scummy, in fact he voted for him and pushed for his lynch. Then D2 he was a major player in pushing the case against Tobi. Yet why didn't he investigate Tobi N1? And he rarely (if ever) mentions JDodge as scum except in pairing with pwayne. Rishi seems to be his second most scummy player along with ckillor. This JDodge investigation just isn't adding up to me.

FoS Dasq

Right now I think I'd lean towards a Dasq lynch. Unless someone finds flaws with lynching from the Cop pool as a whole.

[TylerJ]

I had forgotten I was cop during night one and was also absent from the computer during that time. This is why I missed the first investigation. I made sure I didn't miss it again. Rishi could still be guilty, and my two top suspects were Dasq and Rishi. Rishi turned out innocent in the investigation, so I I have a stronger belief that dasq is, despite his claim.

Dasq, you find me suspicious on my claim? Nice... Look at all other evidence and see who is more scummy. With that little tidbit, I'm almost certain your scum now, you just hope chance works in your favor.

Did the other cop die?

Here is some evidence why you should believe my claim. I knew that Mafia and cops didn't know if they were A or B because I was never told myself. I also got extremely aggitated at panzer because he thought I was cop. It was said that I soft claimed and I did, but I was afraid that mafia would see that and attempt to kill me so I said I didn't. I also refused to claim outright earlier in the game because I didn't want mafia to kill me. If I was a regular townie, I would have claimed. If I was mafia, I would have claimed townie as well. But I didn't claim at all. Because I was a cop and didn't wan't to be a sitting duck to the mafia when there is only one Doc.

[TylerJ]

On the first day I was going to investigate sikario because I didn't want the town ignore a potential scum. after the secon day however I didn't see the point because I believed his claim and didn't want to waste an investigation.

[shaft.ed]

Dasq and Tyler what do you think about lynching eachother?

[TylerJ]

A bad idea. I wouldn't mind lynching Dasq of course, but to kill a cop will kill the game for us. I would vote for dasq but it is up to the town to decipher which one is the actual cop.

[Rishi]

I had forgotten I was cop during night one and was also absent from the computer during that time. This is why I missed the first investigation. I made sure I didn't miss it again. Rishi could still be guilty, and my two top suspects were Dasq and Rishi. Rishi turned out innocent in the investigation, so I I have a stronger belief that dasq is, despite his claim.

Dasq, you find me suspicious on my claim? Nice... Look at all other evidence and see who is more scummy. With that little tidbit, I'm almost certain your scum now, you just hope chance works in your favor.

Did the other cop die?

Here is some evidence why you should believe my claim. I knew that Mafia and cops didn't know if they were A or B because I was never told myself. I also got extremely aggitated at panzer because he thought I was cop. It was said that I soft claimed and I did, but I was afraid that mafia would see that and attempt to kill me so I said I didn't. I also refused to claim outright earlier in the game because I didn't want mafia to kill me. If I was a regular townie, I would have claimed. If I was mafia, I would have claimed townie as well. But I didn't claim at all. Because I was a cop and didn't wan't to be a sitting duck to the mafia when there is only one Doc.

For someone who shows complete and utter inattentiveness in this game, he certainly remembers a couple of key facts with a shocking amount of clarity. This means that certain points in the game were crucial enough to stick out in Tyler's mind, though the rest of the post shows that he should not be allowed to play Mafia ever again.

Gah... I can't believe I'm saying this, but I am starting to believe Tyler.

[Dasquian]

Dasq and Tyler what do you think about lynching eachother?

I think Tyler is a good lynch. I know for a fact he is scum because I

am

the other cop. I also agree with your logic that he is more likely to be mafia A than B as claiming cop as mafia guarantees death within 24 hours. That makes no sense for mafia B and some sense for mafia A.

Total WIFOM, but that should also assure you that I am

not

the mafia, since if I were mafia B I would be guaranteeing a loss and if I were mafia A I would want to engineer the situation where both I and my partner made it to tomorrow.

Better argument: just look at how he's defending himself: he hasn't worked out that his fake-claim is a unique claim and he's leaving the door open for me being innocent, but being "almost certain" that I'm scum now. To me that sounds like someone who knows that he's not the cop, knows I am the cop, and hasn't joined all of the dots.

As for why I investigated JDodge - I thought it was a better use of my investigation than Tobi. I figured Tobi would trip himself up sooner or later (and I was right), whereas I thought JDodge would be a more useful investigation, particularly for me because he was wailing on me towards the end of D1 and I had suspicious vibes of him. I investigated Rishi N2 because he was top of my suspicion list.

[Claus]

Tyler - there is only one Cop. If you claim cop, you must believe that Dasq is scum. The main question is: Scum A or Scum B?

I made a very brief re-read of Dasq's and Tyler's posts this morning. I think Dasq to be more scummy, because on day one, he gave me the impression of shifting his list of townie and scummy players a lot.

Tyler's defense post above is a little strange, and his lack of a investigation N1 is sad, but I don't see that as inconsistent with the rest of his play. And his suspicious list changed in a more consistent fashion.

Regarding links, I couldn't see any clear links between Tyler and any of Shaft.ed, Rishi or Aioqwe. Dasq, on the other hand, was pretty ambivalent towards Aioqwe, and a little bit at Shaft.ed in his D1 analysis.

I won't vote yet because I don't feel I have made a complete job out of my re-read. This week is a bit busy for me, but I might have some more free time tomorrow or Friday. I'm looking forward hearing from the other players who they think is the probable pair in Mafia B.

[aioqwe]

ugh I don't have enough time to read through all the cases and confirm them. I'll do it tom morn. c'ya (:

[shaft.ed]

So Dasq is answering the questions right while Tyler has been setting up the cop claim since early D1. This seems to be a tough call.

I can see Mafia B running a gambit whereby they agree with a Cop pool lynch, but I can't see Mafia A doing so. Thus I think we can rule out Mafia A for Dasq. Also I don't know how bad a spot pushing a lynch against the "known" cop (at least to a fake claimer) would be. Sure it will out him for the NK, but his partner is assured to survive the night. If they think they have a read on Mafia A it's not such a bad play. WCS for Mafia B here would be a prisoner's dilemma, but without a confirmed townie while BCS would be LYLO if they manage to crosskill. And pushing against the lynch would be quite risky as it would make him more likely to look scum and thus get killed while creating a confirmed townie with investigation powers. Seems the correct play may be to go with the flow.

Tyler on the other hand seems to not even know what's going on. But he's been setting up a cop claim since early D1. So he's either scum trying very hard to look like he's not paying attention while being very careful about planting cop tells, or he's a cop planting tells and not paying very much attention. I think this calls for a meta to see how much interest Tyler usually gives his games.

In sum as of now although Tyler's recent answers have been a bit off, I'm not sure if he's really not the cop. I agree with Claus that Dasq was scummier early game. Also I highly doubt Dasq is Mafia A so he might be the safer lynch if we are concerned Mafia A would claim cop.

Need to think on this one.


Also as of now I see the likely scum possibilities as:
Mafia A: Rishi
Mafia B: If Tyler - Claus
Mafia B: If Dasq - Aioqwe

But I need to do a reread to see if these connections are granted.

[Dasquian]

It's worth noting that it's not a *disaster* if you lynch wrong and get me today, on the basis that Tyler will certainly be NKed and will in turn, hopefully, NK the other mafia, unless Tyler is indeed Tobi's partner. The only reason I haven't slapped a vote down yet is that I haven't checked that one out properly, as unlikely as it seems.

[shaft.ed]

Whoops I noticed my numbers above were wrong in that I weighted Mafia A and B claiming cop evenly even though its twice as likely Mafia B claimed cop since there are two of them, should read:

Summary from Mafia B claimed cop:

Town win: 3.2%
LYLO: 31.3%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 65.7%
Automatic loss: 0%

Summary from Mafia A claimed cop:

Town win: 0%
LYLO: 12.5%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 0%
Automatic loss: 87.5%

Total Summary:

Town win: 2.1%
LYLO: 25%
Prisoner's dilemmma: 43.8%
Automatic loss: 29.2%

[shaft.ed]

Claus, you were pushing hard for a case on aioqwe yesterday. I found the case a bid odd because Tyler's play has been pretty similar, yet you rated Tyler with the highest town rating and aioqwe wth the highest scum rating. Now today you seem to have backed off of aioqwe. Any reason for not pushing him today?

I'm still at a loss as to which of the claimed cops is which. Dasq is doing a very good job of looking like the cop of the moment, while Tyler did a very good job of looking like the cop of the game.

I'll ask again for any breadcrumbs either of you might have left behind.

[shaft.ed]

OK just finished rereading Tyler and I have to say during D1 he comes off very town and pretty obviously a powerrole trying to hide. Dasq is the one throwing pressure around that lead to the outing of a Doc and possibly nearly outed a Cop.

But this last answer is just sooooo bad from Tyler:

A bad idea. I wouldn't mind lynching Dasq of course, but to kill a cop will kill the game for us. I would vote for dasq but it is up to the town to decipher which one is the actual cop.

First of all killing the cop won't end the game for us because it assures a mafia cross-kill which means, at the very least, we'll be in a prisoner's dilemma. Also seeing as the likelihood of us needing a cop at all tommorow is 25% (if we lynch from the cop pool) There's no way you can saying killing the cop will kill the game for us. Finally, from your perspective it's not up to the town to decipher which one is the actual cop, YOU ALREADY KNOW THAT.

Man you guys are making this a hard choice.

Rishi & aioqwe your limited contributions are noted. While aioqwe has been lurky throughout, Rishi has been posting rather well. I feel your lack of contribution to this game but maintained contribution to other games is indicative of you sitting back to wait for a consensus to form. Please add in your opinions.

I'll try to get a Dasq reread in but not sure how soon that will be.

[Dasquian]

I'm feeling pretty comfortable about this game now: I think Rishi and aioqwe are both scum and hopefully they will know each other is scum too - so today goes one of two ways:

- You lynch me and then Tyler gets NKed along with, hopefully another scum who is either Rishi/aioqwe. You lynch the remaining person the next day.
- You lynch Tyler and then Rishi and aioqwe cross-kill for a town win.

Obviously I prefer the latter since it's a lot safer; we get tomorrow to recover from one or both of the mafia missing their kill. Unfortunately I didn't leave any breadcrumbs to pick up on - all I can point to about my early game is an attempt to not look like a potential cop (on the basis that I'd be a high priority target). I'm certainly not going to apologise for early-game pressure on Tyler and Panzerjager, as the former is now entirely justified and the latter was a well-deserved bandwagon, even if he did turn out to be the doctor.

[aioqwe]

tyler, pwayne died at night as cop...

still trying to get my head around things...

[aioqwe]

Lynch town = 2:2:1 going into night (50%)

Mafia double crosskill = 2:1 = LYLO (

16.7%

)
Mafia single crosskill = 1:1:1

or 1:2

(

50%

)

16.7% B wins
33% prisoners dilemma

No crosskill =

33.3%

probability

16.7% 1:1:2 (town:A:B)
16.7% 0:1:2

Mafia A claimed cop (33%):

Lynch mafia = 3:

2

going into night (50%)

Automatic town loss

with nk

Lynch town = 2:2:1 going into night (50%)

Mafia double crosskill = 2:1 = LYLO (

16.7%

)
Mafia single crosskill = 1:1:1

or 1:2

(

50%

)

16.7% B wins
33% prisoners dilemma

No crosskill =

33.3%

probability

16.7% 1:1:2 (town:A:B)
16.7% 0:1:2

fixed/added stuff to shaft's percentages... haven't done the effect on your summary tho... In case you couldn't tell red is my stuff...

That being said I think percentages make the game too mechanical... Town is probably iffy who is who but I think most are feeling some are scum some are not. This is probably more-so the case for B because they have partners...

I'm trying to look for links between tyler/anyone and dasq/anyone... 40 pages isn't fun to look through tho ):

I haven't made up my mind yet as which cop is more scummy. Just wanted to point out tho IF dasq is the scum he's just taking tyler's innocent on rishi and jdodge's death post. IF tyler is scum he probably pulled Rishi out of the blue. That being said, suspicion leans to dasq. I feel looking for connections is more affirmative...

As far as if these are A/B cop, at the end of D2 a lots were looking for rishi/tob connection (again, I'm going back and looking at this in light of new evidence). Going back to percentages, given the fake cop is B mafia, our cop will be alive and get us out of D4 lylo 16.7% of the time)...

[shaft.ed]

aioqwe, the reason the lynching town leaves 0% probability of no crosskill is because the other claimed cop has to be mafia, thus there has to be a crosskill. That's the advantage of lynching one of the claimed cops.

I haven't made up my mind yet as which cop is more scummy. Just wanted to point out tho IF dasq is the scum he's just taking tyler's innocent on rishi and jdodge's death post. IF tyler is scum he probably pulled Rishi out of the blue. That being said, suspicion leans to dasq. I feel looking for connections is more affirmative...

It really doesn't matter what the results are because we don't even know which flavor cop is still alive. They could literally make up anything they want and it won't look fake to anyone in the game unless it is a Mafia A faking innocent and guilty results on the two members of Team B.

I've still got a lot to go for my Dasq reread. Right now I'm finding him more cop-ish, but this is all based on his answers to a few recent questions. However, I do think on the off chance Mafia A claimed Cop Dasq is way more likely not to be Mafia A than Tyler so he'd be the "safe" lynch.