nancy, we don't have time at this stage to flashwagon. There's a reason I defaulted to one of Revan/EL. Please choose whichever of these you feel is more likely to flip scum at this stage.
tojam I have some spare time gimme a sec and I'll get an interim VC for you
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
(expired on 2017-01-16 11:14:00) remain until day end
^ unofficial, by my count.
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
The thing with the Titus/GL thing nancy is that we don't have the time to explore that through wagoning, get a claim, evaluate the validity of the claim, and potentially move to someone else based on it.
That's something best explored in the next day phase.
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
Revan and Titus have already expressed willingness to lynch GL. Tojam also appears willing, though he has stated that he prefers EL. This puts L-1 on GL within easy reach. I don't think his claim is particularly relevant at this point. If he's the real jailer (1/7) then we're fucked, but otherwise it's irrelevant. If he's mafia, he'll almost certainly claim jailer to try to and bait a cc. I doubt the real jailer would out at this point, preferring to just hammer or wait for someone else to hammer if they're already on the wagon. He could also claim vanilla, but this is unlikely because it doesn't do anything for his chances of survival and doesn't stand to give his partner anything to work with. In other words, real jailer shouldn't out/cc D1, so a jailer claim should be ignored. No matter who we lynch we're running a 1/7 chance of being wrong and lynching the real jailer. I like those odds.
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
In post 422, nancy wrote:I'm back. First things first, I retract 376 and apologize for a crappy post. Cheap way to "out" oneself as town. It's relevant however that my scumread of Lemon and especially of Lemon/Jae depended partially on certain private communications having taken place (e.g., 168). Titus is right about pregame coaching.
On Revan: this personality type has a tendency to seem scummy even when they aren't (kind of similar to how EL's personality has a tendency to seem townie when they aren't). I'm not going to join this wagon today.
On D1 lynch: I should play to win the game. It isn't at all clear how to interpret this, however. Do I lynch who I think is scummiest or who I think will give us the best chance of catching scum down the track? Lynching Lemon would certainly free up headspace to look elsewhere, and she doesn't post or scumhunt much - only 2 more posts than mod - so if she flips Town it isn't as though we'd be losing a great deal. I'm kind of disinclined to lynch her though, because she's been giving off at least
some
towntells recently, and there are better options immediately available: GuiltyLion and Titus.
I'm just going to bank on either GL or Titus being scum. And not both. GL has contributed pretty much nothing all day, but I'm also pretty unimpressed by how little Titus came up with after the naked vote on EL, so either makes sense to me.
Which results in a lynching priority for me of: GL, Titus, EL, Agent Sparkles, bowdown, revan
VOTE: GuiltyLion
Feel free to try to convince me to hammer or not hammer Lemon, but I'd prefer GL/Titus.
I don't like the sudden shift here. Your last read on guilty was nulltown, wasn't it? Now you change that to scum because of low contribution when in fact he's contributed a fair amount to the discussion. If that's really what you care most about at this point, then me or Titus would be a more realistic priority.
What's your opinion on Revan? You voted him earlier, which suggests you scumread him.
In post 429, nancy wrote:Oh I miscounted, I thought EL was at L-1.
Revan and Titus have already expressed willingness to lynch GL. Tojam also appears willing, though he has stated that he prefers EL. This puts L-1 on GL within easy reach. I don't think his claim is particularly relevant at this point. If he's the real jailer (1/7) then we're fucked, but otherwise it's irrelevant. If he's mafia, he'll almost certainly claim jailer to try to and bait a cc. I doubt the real jailer would out at this point, preferring to just hammer or wait for someone else to hammer if they're already on the wagon. He could also claim vanilla, but this is unlikely because it doesn't do anything for his chances of survival and doesn't stand to give his partner anything to work with. In other words, real jailer shouldn't out/cc D1, so a jailer claim should be ignored. No matter who we lynch we're running a 1/7 chance of being wrong and lynching the real jailer. I like those odds.
There's only a 50/50 chance that there's even a jailer in the game, but yeah, they shouldn't out today.
Revan, your recent posts have only made me more suspicious of you. This progression on Lemon is terrible:
In post 342, Revan wrote:I think EL is too townread to be lynched today.
In post 394, Revan wrote:@bowdown I was townreading EL on page 2. Why do you believe that that read is still current? It looks like you're stretching now.
In post 403, Revan wrote:I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.
In post 409, Revan wrote:I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.
In post 413, Revan wrote:I believe EL will flip 60% green 40% red.
I scumread both of you.
Let me get this straight. In a span of 4 pages, you (in order) say EL is too town to be lynched, vote EL and say you don't want her in LYLO, claim it was a self-save, say that you were townreading her on page 2 and not necessarily anymore (pretty sure the 2 was a typo, but regardless it was only 2 pages and 3 of your posts ago), claim that you do in fact townread her (although slightly), backtrack and say you voted her because you scumread her, and then say that she's 60% town and 40% scum. In the process, you push Lemon to L-1 and later claim that there's plenty of time to lynch Guilty. You're being really incoherent.
And about this:
In post 359, Revan wrote:If I was town/scum reading Titus I would have no reason to do a reaction test.
I'll lynch GL if none of you will lynch Jae.
There was a reason I asked about scum communication. Since you and Titus were my top scumreads, I considered a hypothetical scenario were you were partners and your strategy of attacking Titus for a reaction and later unvoting was your way of bussing for credit without actually lynching her. This would've been undermined if scum could talk during the day, since you could've informed her of what you were trying to do and she probably would've been more cooperative. Alone, it's not a very strong case to make against you, but combined with the above quote wall and everything else you've said and done, it's hard to see you as town.
In post 432, Agent Sparkles wrote:What's your opinion on Revan? You voted him earlier, which suggests you scumread him.
In post 422, nancy wrote:On Revan: this personality type has a tendency to seem scummy even when they aren't (kind of similar to how EL's personality has a tendency to seem townie when they aren't). I'm not going to join this wagon today.
You should re-read Revan's posts with context, your summary showed misunderstanding.
In post 432, Agent Sparkles wrote:There was a reason I asked about scum communication. Since you and Titus were my top scumreads, I considered a hypothetical scenario were you were partners and your strategy of attacking Titus for a reaction and later unvoting was your way of bussing for credit without actually lynching her. This would've been undermined if scum could talk during the day, since you could've informed her of what you were trying to do and she probably would've been more cooperative. Alone, it's not a very strong case to make against you, but combined with the above quote wall and everything else you've said and done, it's hard to see you as town.
That's bad strategy according to anything I know about scum play. I could see a newb doing it, but not Titus. Also, don't make the mistake of thinking that anyone is more inclined to believe that either you or I are town just because of the comments about mafia private communication. If anything it makes me more suspicious of you.
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
1. Don't want her in LYLO because she is easily manipulated
2. My townread on her is minimal
3. I don't want to be lynched today
"Savior, conqueror, hero, villain. You are all things, Revan… and yet you are nothing. In the end, you belong to neither the light nor the darkness. You will forever stand alone."
―Darth Malak to Revan
Can we actually flashwagon GL? I'm up for it, and I think Titus is too.
"Savior, conqueror, hero, villain. You are all things, Revan… and yet you are nothing. In the end, you belong to neither the light nor the darkness. You will forever stand alone."
―Darth Malak to Revan
NO. Definitely not. Titus and GL might both be town and that means I am dying tonight.
I'm dying tonight anyway. The scum team is 2 newbs I think and I'll explain why when I wake I'm just really drunk atm.
It's very likely nancy/agent.
"Jae defends his townreads like a fanatic" - Charloux
"On the issue of myself they go back and forth between overpowering paranoia and absolute certainty I'm town... it's kind of exhausting." - Nahdia
Nope DL is in a little over a day, so we still have time to lynch GL.
"Savior, conqueror, hero, villain. You are all things, Revan… and yet you are nothing. In the end, you belong to neither the light nor the darkness. You will forever stand alone."
―Darth Malak to Revan
"Savior, conqueror, hero, villain. You are all things, Revan… and yet you are nothing. In the end, you belong to neither the light nor the darkness. You will forever stand alone."
―Darth Malak to Revan
I like his response to me in 349. Not trying to justify each thing that happened, just an easygoing "this just kind of happened" post. Some arguing with Titus, pushing your lynch, a bit preoccupied with Titus pushing a GL-EL scumteam but I still see somebody towny who is clearly trying to solve the game.
