In post 11994, MagnaofIllusion wrote:1. Grapes is Town as you suggest.
2. Grapes is the only character remaining who makes any sense as Leftover who can join / help the Mafia.
3. Based on 2 that there is only 1 scum remaining.
If you disagree with these premises pipe up. Otherwise look at the logic flow. If we lynched Grapes today that leaves us with the following pools of players before a Mafia Nightkill.
Confirmed Town (4)– myself, Random, yourself and Shiro.
Not Confirmed Town (3)– Almost, RR, Fuzzy
Shiro becomes confirmed not scum do to the game not ending when Shadow was lynched and he was bubbled per Mod confirmation to me in conjunction with the above 3 premises.
Stopping you there.
If we agree on the premise that grapes is town, it doesn't matter if he is confirmed as town via lynch.
We can automatically assume that Shiro is confirmed as town if grapes is town.
Therefore, we have three days, to lynch three candidates: Fuzzy, Almost50, and Reasonably Rational.
If we lynch grapes to prove he is town, we have two days to lynch three candidates.
There is no way to avoid the coinflip.
You can make assumptions. RR says Almost50 is town. You say Almost50 is town. I also do not believe Almost50 is scum (though not to the same level of conviction as you believe him to be town). So if we assume he is town, yes. There isn't a coinflip, because you've got two days to lynch Fuzzy and RR. But it's exactly that: an assumption.
We have FIVE players who are suspects.
No matter what, come lylo there will be an assumption in play.
If we ASSUME grapes is town, then we assume Shiro is town as an extension, and we lynch through RR/Fuzzy/Almost50.
If we ASSUME Almost50 is town, then we lynch grapes, confirm Shiro is town, and then we lynch through RR/Fuzzy.
But no matter what, there is exactly that in play: an ASSUMPTION.
There is zero way to get a gamestate free of a coinflip. No matter what, an assumption MUST be made.
2 Confirmed Town – Random and myself
5 Others – grapes, Fuzzy, RR, Almost, Shiro
Your theory here assumes a no lynch. And if we no lynch, that sure as fuck won't be my doing. It goes down to 4 after a lynch. And while there would indeed be four unconfirmed town...again. That's literally no different than what we already have.
Fuck theoretical gamebreaking strategies. Those were thrown out when Fuzzy was instructed by RR to make two sub-optimal plays.
Just scumhunt. And use every aspect of scumhunting, including setup spec. grapes is in theory scum, yes. Grapes is, in theory, possible as scum, sure. But tell me. Do you actually think he is? Do you actually think, out of all the players in the game, grapes has the highest chance of any of flipping scum?
If not, then you're never getting my support in lynching him.
If you do? If you sincerely, actually, believe that grapes has the highest chance of any player of flipping scum? Yeah, well, then show me. I've been asking for why grapes is scum. Aside from lolPOE, I've gotten basically nothing.
I will lynch who I think is scum.
I will compromise lynch on a player which doesn't remove my influence from the game (i.e., Fuzzy is a last resort who I'd vote if absolutely necessary to avoid a no-lynch).
I will not lynch one of my strongest townreads off of a theoretical plan which I don't even believe in. And you can point me to the numbers all day. I still won't believe in it.
Show me why grapes is scum. Or, alternatively, show me why every player aside from grapes is town. (You're allowed one exception if you feel there are two scum left.) I'd accept that. I'd listen to
that
. But I'm not listening to this, because this is not something which appeals to me.
Reasonably Rational is who I think the last scum is. I've explained in very thorough detail why I not only think they are scum, but also why I think every other player is town. I'm not looking for some theoretical strategy which ensures the town wins. I'm looking for a strategy in which the town wins TODAY. In other words, I'm looking to lynch scum TODAY.
And nobody has given me one IOTA of a reason to believe said scum is grapes. Fuck, I've done more work to show why grapes could be scum than the entire rest of the playerlist combined, and I did so in raising reasons why I don't think grapes is scum! (As in, "I see these points which COULD be indicators, but I don't think they're valid because of these reasons".)
I'm not interested in lynching scum later. I'm interested in lynching scum NOW. And I think that scum, singular, is Reasonably Rational. It's as simple as that.