Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[vollkan]

Aw, you didn't have to wait for me. You could've kept posting.

Where were links to TH mentioned?

Tyhess mentioned it right here, in post 1560:

Post 1311 and 1312 by TH and vollkan look to me as if they are scum partners......

What was this supposed connection between me and vollkan? I looked it up, and I don't see what tyhess is talking about.

Post 1311:

Gack! Not the final installment ; I was being too optimistic. I still need to do Tar, TH and Pwayne.

I might go lazy and not do TH since he has been done adequately by theo.

Post 1312:

Besides, pwayne is working on mine. So don't worry about it.

Just do Tar's. His is easy. We can fight over who will do one for pwayne later.

I've got about 20 posts to go for vollkan. I'll post the full PBPA either later today or tomorrow.

Those were from when we were divvying up PBPA's. And this is supposed to be a connection between us?? I don't get it.

...

Tyhess, would you mind explaining how the division of the PBPAs is a scum-partner tell?

[tyhess]

It had nothing to do with the division of the PBPAs, it was the way you guys worded it.

[vollkan]

Well, I won't answer for TH, but let me go back to what I said:

Gack! Not the final installment ; I was being too optimistic. I still need to do Tar, TH and Pwayne.

I might go lazy and not do TH since he has been done adequately by theo.

First sentence is me realising I needed to do more PBPAs. Second sentence is me deciding to opt out of a TH analysis because it had just been done well by theo.

[Mastermind of Sin]

No, Trojan, I don't see a pattern. Please explain how, as town, I would not have had that reaction when Oman came up dead, which would imply that I knew he was vig. In that case, please explain how I, as town, would have figured out that Oman was the vig.

[pwayne66]

I'm leaning toward's TH being the best bet. Either way I cut it, he is the common denominator. Tyhess is vastly improved over tar, but his accusations fail to make any real sense. I am still reading with an emphasis on TH and Vollkan, but I don't find a lot to indicate a connection thus far.

[tyhess]

I'm leaning toward's TH being the best bet. Either way I cut it, he is the common denominator. Tyhess is vastly improved over tar, but his accusations fail to make any real sense. I am still reading with an emphasis on TH and Vollkan, but I don't find a lot to indicate a connection thus far.

It was not a huge connection; however, that's what I saw when I was reading everything-however, like I said, it's not a huge connection, but I do beleive that TH is the best bet-after that I seriously don't know and may have been stretching it to try to find a scum pair. But I feel probably 95% sure that TH is scum.

[Trojan Horse]

No, Trojan, I don't see a pattern. Please explain how, as town, I would not have had that reaction when Oman came up dead, which would imply that I knew he was vig. In that case, please explain how I, as town, would have figured out that Oman was the vig.

Okay, so the third quote from you was from after Oman was revealed to be the vig, and that was a normal reaction. But the other two quotes were from the preceding day, and they sounded like you knew who the vig was.

Let me ask you all the same question that MoS I (his first incarnation, the protown one that was nightkilled) asked when it looked like he was going to be lynched. If all four of you are now so sure that I'm scum (which I'm not), who do you think is bussing me right now?

[Mastermind of Sin]

tyhess or vollkan. That should be obvious.

[vollkan]

Let me ask you all the same question that MoS I (his first incarnation, the protown one that was nightkilled) asked when it looked like he was going to be lynched. If all four of you are now so sure that I'm scum (which I'm not), who do you think is bussing me right now?

I think tyhess is most likely bussing you. Outside of that, of course, I suspect Pwayne more so than MoS.

[Guardian]

Deadline:

December 30th.

This is retractable if you complain, but seriously?

[Trojan Horse]

Doubt you'll get any complaining, Guardian. Don't see what can be said that hasn't been said already.

What more do you want me to say? I don't see how the scum could've located the vig without some inside info, and MoS's actions during day 3 make me think that he had that inside info. If you have a better explanation for Oman's death last night, let me hear it.

(Actually, I think I know what MoS's explanation will be.)

[tyhess]

I still beleive that TH is the best lynch for today, and the most likely to be scum.

[vollkan]

What more do you want me to say? I don't see how the scum could've located the vig without some inside info, and MoS's actions during day 3 make me think that he had that inside info. If you have a better explanation for Oman's death last night, let me hear it.

When you say "MoS's actions during day 3" do you mean the posts 1419 and 1437?

[Trojan Horse]

That, and his pushing for a no lynch. I know, you said that no lynch was the right move to make, and apparently the rest of the group was convinced. But not me. (No need to rehash the arguments again. I know what they are.)

[Mastermind of Sin]

Actually, I don't have an explanation for Oman's death. Hence my WTF reaction when he showed up dead. I did not expect it, and I cannot fathom why they did it.

[vollkan]

That, and his pushing for a no lynch. I know, you said that no lynch was the right move to make, and apparently the rest of the group was convinced. But not me. (No need to rehash the arguments again. I know what they are.)

And that's it?

1419 is a simple theory level fact about probabilities, and 1437 is MoS saying that he doesn't think the vig's identity is obvious. As for the No Lynch matter, I maintain it was the correct course of action.

I really fail to see how, at this stage of the game particularly, you can consider those valid foundations for suspicion.

A question, TH: If Oman had not died, would you still suspect MoS?

[Trojan Horse]

If Oman had not died, I would've continued to suspect Oman until he (inevitably) claimed vig. Once he did so, I would've been satisfied with that (and if someone counterclaimed, I would've pushed for a no lynch). Would I then have suspected MoS? MoS would probably have been only of average scumminess to me at that point.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ok, someone's gotta move this on to the next level eventually, it might as well be me. I'm not trying to hurry anything or say that we should stop discussing things. This is not a vote of impatience, either. I'm just confident enough in my read at this point that a

Vote: Trojan Horse

is in order.

[vollkan]

Oman had not died, I would've continued to suspect Oman until he (inevitably) claimed vig. Once he did so, I would've been satisfied with that (and if someone counterclaimed, I would've pushed for a no lynch). Would I then have suspected MoS? MoS would probably have been only of average scumminess to me at that point.

This is just the thing, though: What I gather from this is that the death of Oman and the No Lynch are both required to justify your suspicion.

The significance of this, were it not obvious already, is that you are effectively making your suspicion contingent upon the NK. I had problems with tyhess's arguments revolving around NK speculation, and I think those same problems operate here also.

You just said it yourself - if Oman had not died last night, MoS would only be averagely scummy to you. That effectively negates the whole No Lynch argument of yours, since it demonstrates that the major factor in your suspicion (tipping MoS from "average" to your #1) is the fact that Oman was NKed.

[tyhess]

Ok, someone's gotta move this on to the next level eventually, it might as well be me. I'm not trying to hurry anything or say that we should stop discussing things. This is not a vote of impatience, either. I'm just confident enough in my read at this point that a

Vote: Trojan Horse

is in order.

I agree with this. I just don't want to put him at lynch-1 in lylo.

[Trojan Horse]

Well, if MoS isn't scum, then scum will eventually pile on me and win. So I guess I have nothing to lose now:

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

[pwayne66]

You just said it yourself - if Oman had not died last night, MoS would only be averagely scummy to you. That effectively negates the whole No Lynch argument of yours, since it demonstrates that the major factor in your suspicion (tipping MoS from "average" to your #1) is the fact that Oman was NKed.

I don't understand this. Maybe I am an idiot (possible) or its just to early here (very likely). How does Oman's death negate the no lynch?

[vollkan]

I don't understand this. Maybe I am an idiot (possible) or its just to early here (very likely). How does Oman's death negate the no lynch?

It doesn't.

My point was that TH's suspicion of MoS was purely contingent upon the fact that oman died. Thus, it is basically NK speculation.

[Mastermind of Sin]

This just occurred to me. Is there anyone who did *not* address the issue of the vig living or dying before we no lynched yesterday? I feel like those people are actually more likely to be scum, if the scum had information in advance. If they didn't have information, I still have no clue why they killed Oman.

[vollkan]

I just checked over my posts and I never mentioned the issue of the vig living or dying in respect of the No Lynch. The analysis I made of the different options was based on the merits of the pure numbers of the situation (as in, 3:2 or 2:1 or 1:1:1 etc.) My assumption was that whichever situation had the most advantageous numbers was the one we should take.