Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Dierfire]

I had read -Grey- over, but I'm not confident in my ability to discern any targets--and even if I were, with no Mafia players dead I'd be very reluctant to put much stock in a "clear" on those grounds.

I assume that -Grey- died because the Mafia players found Jailkeeper a more likely role than Bulletproof. It's also true that not many players were reading -Grey- as Mafia (but due to the claim I'm not quite yet at the point where I start wondering why you and Kairal still live).

[MiniDeathStar]

Why are you so attached to Io's reads over your own?

These are my own reads. They just happen to coincide with hers.

What was believable about his claim?

Benefit of the doubt? I don't know of a town that would lynch a claimed cop on day 1 without substantial evidence. What made it a "pretty blatant fakeclaim"?

Do scum usually vote together like I think you are trying to hint with me and culted?

It could be a coincidence but factions that know each other sometimes tend to sheep each other. Scum, masons, cult.

Do scum usually like to be on all the town wagons? (Look at DGBs scumputer and it shows a greater correlation to being scum for players on some town wagons and off other town wagons)

No. But it still depends on individual teams and strategies. And context. Though I suppose you have a point, I don't think either Io or Jin were difficult lynches that really needed the sponsorship of 2 scummos.

Scum would have known Newman was town, so they would have likely believed his claim. So how would scum act? Once again I think you throw out patterns and assume 1, maybe 2 did not believe him and 1, maybe 2 scum did believe him. (Yes this assumes 3 scum total) like voting, scum are usually pretty careful to try to mix it up and blend in, not go all united together as you are hinting.

Scum would also have hoped to capitalise on the opportunity and lynch a scummy cop, or alterantively sheep the village's opinion that the cop is probably fake but we should give him a chance. Scum like conformity because it doesn't stand out.

Mini, it also doesn't count the fact that you are practically rushing the IO lynch yourself

Ehhh not really. I just thought it was really odd. As town I'd always get upset and emotional when I'm about to be lynched, but as scum I'm more composed and level-headed because I know I'm evil. In either case I'd still give off *some* reaction instead of this chilling calm that Io showed.

Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

Atm still town. But I'm definitely not as confident as I was before. I don't want to be fooled again.

Still sticking to my suspicions from before + her vca is awful

Why is it awful? And do you have any better?

Easy stuff first!
---
The "slip" line from CloudKicker in 43 is still unlikely from a Mafia player. The decreased activity level from Shadow_step is unfortunate but not suspicious in itself; my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.
---
I Am Innocent was off of my radar for a long time, but now occupies a position that I'd consider among the stronger Town reads. Checking into my predecessor (893) is a level of effort that seems less likely to come from a Mafia player (also it's an unusual target for effort by a Mafia player).
---
In addition to all of my previous thoughts about Aj the Epic that still stand (656 mostly), I'm now adding that Aj The Epic responds to Io as I would expect a Town player to. Some of this is difficult to phrase (relies on things like "tone" and "gut"), but I think that I can safely point to things like 434 (very shortly after Io incorrectly attributes a read to Aj The Epic, he corrects her--this suggests a legitimately held read and familiarity with the thought process as opposed to a falsified thought process that needs checking before a response comes together).
---
My secondary tier consists of players like MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and culted. I was reading them as Town D1, but due to time/decay and my baseline assumption that I'm wrong about one or more of the players I was reading as Town, I'm less confident in these.

I actually think I agree with this.

How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?

Mostly on tone. He was a lone scum in that game (at least at the time I was still alive) and his tone matched exactly what I'd expect from town him. His style was also very similar to mine back in my newbtown days which made me apply my personal towntells to him. This is what I said about him that game:

Kairal is a new player and he's pretty close to how I was when I was new (as town). It's easy for me to read him because we follow(ed) the same patterns: open with thoughts, sharing every opinion about the game, narrowing down the pool, getting sidetracked into tunnels, carefully interrogating everybody. We *do* have some personality differences but other than that I can easily see my old self in how he's playing atm.

[Flubbernugget]

Does that tentative supposition (MiniDeathStar is Mafia trying to unfairly implicate culted and I Am Innocent, who are both Town), match your independent reads?

Yes

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

[Flubbernugget]

Why is it awful? And do you have any better?

Let's start with the fact that it consists of two posts. That BARELY shows a pattern of behavior

Now let's add the idea that hammering someone and then starting a new wagon points to scum. You really expect us to just look at the votes you highlighted and believe that?

While we're at it, can you point out the pattern in 973?

[Aj The Epic]

These are my own reads. They just happen to coincide with hers.

Then I'd like to hear it as your reads going forward. Specifically this is the first instance i think I've heard you declaring these as your own as opposed to just stating Io might be right.

I had read -Grey- over, but I'm not confident in my ability to discern any targets--and even if I were, with no Mafia players dead I'd be very reluctant to put much stock in a "clear" on those grounds.

I assume that -Grey- died because the Mafia players found Jailkeeper a more likely role than Bulletproof. It's also true that not many players were reading -Grey- as Mafia (but due to the claim I'm not quite yet at the point where I start wondering why you and Kairal still live).

Normally a bulletproof comes with a strongman, right? Scum could've figured it was bullshit if they didn't have a corresponding strongman to an infinite shot BP. I don't particularly remember a BP claim but I also don't see any other way to take a BP suggestion under no pressure other than a PR crumb. So the two reasons I would suspect initially is 1) Saw the BP suggest, thought it meant PR crumb or 2) went after a universal town read.

Also, in your 998 you talk about MDS thinking Kairal was suspicious in Newman, and we know she said Kairal is weird for the hammer on Jin, then do you see legitimate reason for MDS to point IaI and Culted over townreading Kairal? I ask because I feel like Shadowstep and MDS may be setting Kairal up to take a fall here, with Shadow pushing and MDS seemingly posturing kairal into a less-than-stellar position.

[Dierfire]

@Aj The Epic

Normally a bulletproof comes with a strongman, right? Scum could've figured it was bullshit if they didn't have a corresponding strongman to an infinite shot BP. I don't particularly remember a BP claim but I also don't see any other way to take a BP suggestion under no pressure other than a PR crumb. So the two reasons I would suspect initially is 1) Saw the BP suggest, thought it meant PR crumb or 2) went after a universal town read.

I believe from the quotes below that -Grey- claimed either Jailkeeper or 1-Shot Bulletproof (more shots would have alerted him to the fact that he was not playing Matrix6).

And by don't buy, that means I'm counterclaiming him.

I'm either JK or BP. Either way, he can't be cop.

Oh fucking lol... thought I was playing Matrix 6.

Lovely.

These were D1, so the Mafia had many potential ways forward depending on the roles available: Role Cop N1 to confirm the role and normal kill N2, Strongman kill N2 (although that seems perhaps less likely for killing the Jailkeeper than for killing the Cop), just guessing, and so on.
Plainly they were at least sufficiently frightened of the Cop claim to kill HellloooNewman before -Grey- even though -Grey- had attracted less suspicion, but after that -Grey- would have been an attractive kill as you say for being widely read as Town as well as for the claim. Based on the nature of the claim, I doubt that the Mafia would have suspected another role entirely.

Also, in your 998 you talk about MDS thinking Kairal was suspicious in Newman, and we know she said Kairal is weird for the hammer on Jin, then do you see legitimate reason for MDS to point IaI and Culted over townreading Kairal? I ask because I feel like Shadowstep and MDS may be setting Kairal up to take a fall here, with Shadow pushing and MDS seemingly posturing kairal into a less-than-stellar position.

Other than the VCA, I do not believe that I've seen a reason from MiniDeathStar to suspect I Am Innocent or culted over Kairal. My first impulse would not be to suspect that MiniDeathStar and Shadow_step are working together to bring Kairal down (partly because I'm independently reading Shadow_step as Town with fair strength and partly because the choice of target would seem unusual), but it will still be worthwhile to get more flesh on the progression of the Kairal read.

[Dierfire]

@MiniDeathStar

---words---

I actually think I agree with this.

Ha ha, which parts?

How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?

Mostly on tone. He was a lone scum in that game (at least at the time I was still alive) and his tone matched exactly what I'd expect from town him. His style was also very similar to mine back in my newbtown days which made me apply my personal towntells to him. This is what I said about him that game:

Kairal is a new player and he's pretty close to how I was when I was new (as town). It's easy for me to read him because we follow(ed) the same patterns: open with thoughts, sharing every opinion about the game, narrowing down the pool, getting sidetracked into tunnels, carefully interrogating everybody. We *do* have some personality differences but other than that I can easily see my old self in how he's playing atm.

So, on what basis are you now relying for your read on Kairal?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

[massive]

Why do you want me to waste a third day pushing for your lynch when we've seen from experience it probably won't go through?

The other people who pushed it were Grey (dead) and MDS. I'm just curious why MDS doesn't at least get the benefit of "the enemy of my enemy" here.

[massive]

@massive

I don't have any issue with Dierfire. 656 is good townposting. Also I find his push on Io consistent even if ultimately wrong, which feels good to me.

I found this while reading over again, and I've two questions. What specifically did you like about my 656, and do you still like those things?

656 is while Newman's wagon is ongoing. At that time the Io vote could have been a vanity wagon, but despite doing good work on Jin you maintained your vote on Io. I think if you were scum here, it would be easy to slide to Jin and start that wagon rather than stick on Io. The rest of that quote should answer your second question.

[Shadow_step]

Spoiler: Important posts from Grey's ISO

Ok I see the disconnect here. I've been seeing tunneling as a town thing and given that you specify that confbias can be scum it looked weird. Thanks I'll put you in basket 1 for now.

No. That's fucking terrible.

He was accusing me of confbiasing A SCUM READ, which is literally IMPOSSIBLE for scum to do because scum KNOW who scum IS.

That tunneling bullshit is just clumsy backpedaling.

I'm not seeing scum in massive.

Just clumsy town.

Can we lynch in {Newman, Io, IAI} please?

You've confirmbiased the game already.

Only town can confbias. You are talking to me like you know I'm town even though you're voting for me.

That only strengthens my scumread on you.

Grey, how do you feel about massive's responses to me so far? I'm not super impressed to be honest, but I could be sinking into a tunnel. I need opinions.

massive is an enigma. I could find myself hammering his wagon, but I think AJ is a better lynch.

That means the most pressing thing right now is... I think it's probably the 3 votes on AJ.

Why is that pressing? Why do you feel the need to lie about there being no reason to vote him?

You are faking an objection to his wagon, because my interaction with him clearly shows sufficient reason to vote him.

He accused me of confbiasing a scumread, which only town can do, while voting me.

When I called him out on it, instead of adjusting his read on me he only doubled down on his terrible logic.

Town is gonna be wrong. Comes with the territory of being the uninformed majority. But only scum has incentive to hang onto an illegitimate viewpoint because they can't afford to let town know the truth.

[Aj The Epic]

Oh you mean the scum read Grey dropped midway through day 1 and didn't re-visit anywhere later in the next 100 posts he made? I appreciate the shade.

[Flubbernugget]

Why do you want me to waste a third day pushing for your lynch when we've seen from experience it probably won't go through?

The other people who pushed it were Grey (dead) and MDS. I'm just curious why MDS doesn't at least get the benefit of "the enemy of my enemy" here.

So one of the proponents of the wagon is dead and

that's

why it's a good idea to push you again? Am I reading this right?

I'm not sure what you mean with your enemy of my enemy thing

[Flubbernugget]

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

As in, they were laying low but still around to resolve lynches

[Aj The Epic]

Dierfire, can we talk? I'm pretty convinced you're town at this point and I want to talk about Shadow_step. Specifically with his last post, I'm completely comfortable dropping a scum read on him.

First things off, we got 25 post iso, two of which are pretty much introduction jokes stuff, from a slot that's been here since Day 1 (halfway through). CK still has 3x as much. It wouldn't be so bad if they were full of content, but here's the highest content post he has:

What's up with the IaI vote, Shadow? I don't think you've said anything about him prior.

Reaction test.

I've developed no reads in this games by interacting with other players.
I thought town was going in the correct direction so I just sheeped my town reads basically, the Hello flip just baffled me. Even the way the claimed I couldn't believe it at all. It seemed like it was a last ditch attempt at drawing a CC.
Been pretty crap by my own standards, so I wanted to see how he reacts and how other do to it.

(Now I must confess I can't use the 'post' command. Bare with me)

Spoiler:

• Alright so the first 'real' catchup post is 355, where he states Grey seems upset over losing a 'mislynch' in Grey's spot. It's unspoken, but this suggests Shadow is scumreading Grey here.
  
  
• His next real post is 670, which basically calls Io on her vote for me. By this time, I had called it, as had Kairal (255) and Dierfire (275). Granted, Shadow hadn't replaced in yes (replaces in p345) but the post (167) isn't so far in front of these to not see them, especially mine which came literally the next page. Even then, there has been a lot to happen up until 167 (specifically with CK slot, which he now reads from his conf-alignment view) and doesn't respond to any of it whatsoever. Either he's realized that it isn't particularly relevant for whatever reason (it still was as of 167) or he didn't respond to it for...???
  
  
• 677 Shadow calls Grey scum. As of this post, his vote is still on MDS, but does not move the vote. He's still on his re-read since the respond is Grey's 375. Realizes two posts later Grey was playing a game here. Specifically I find this weird for a few reasons. I think naturally Shadow would unvote MDS IF HE BELIEVED THE LOGIC he uses in 677 (game got a lot easier w/mod confirmed shit). MDS shares alignment, right? Grey's scum complaining about free pass? Natural progression says that vote moves and then comes off in 681 when he reads through the entire sequence.
  
  
• So in 683 we can assume Grey scumread is dropped. Replaces with Newman/Io scumreads. No reason given, votes Newman. Doesn't post at all during Io run up and eventual lynch. Votes off D2 with an IAI vote, who had L-1 on Io, his scum read. No explanation here, it's that awkward re-RVS stage that happened early D2. When called on it, it's the quoted post above (reaction test, no reads...).
  
  
• There's a question put out to massive (p903) (why did he revote newman after claim) but no attempts to revote even after response. Just two irrelevant questions and then 8 IRL days inactivity, coming back with his first interaction with Kairal, asking if Shadow was next on the mislynch list. This:
  

  I think the main thing I want right now is to see a bit more from Shadow.

  Is Kairal's part of the post that prompted Shadow saying:
  

  So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
  I'l get caught up during the weekend.
  Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

  It's a pretty severe overreaction. He hasn't mentioned Kairal at all before this post, and suddenly wants 'everyone's read on kairal' for suggesting (completely correctly) that we need to hear more from Shadow. Even considering the longass night 2, it had been just under 80 posts and Shadow at this point had little to no content.
  
  
• 1010 where he highlights the earliest parts of Grey's iso to apparently strike up something against me, even labeling it 'important posts from grey's iso' and then fails to commentate on it at all. All posts are the first 1/6th of Grey's iso, nothing towards later stages.

The issue is we've got no content and the only 2 held reads by Shadow both flipped town. Shadow's overreaction to Kairal and then inability to push anything towards me even though his motives obviously suggest he's thinking about it. I'm slightly baffled by 1010 because I think it's so bad that I can't imagine someone actually trying that as either alignment. Literally the definition of throwing shade, since he wouldn't even VOTE off of it.

VOTE: Shadow_step

I still want to know why you think this slot is town, because there's literally nothing in Shadow's iso to prove it. I'm also pretty sure he's still not caught up, because in one of his posts in the 800 range, he quoted a post from Jhin from the 370 range. This was D2, so he obviously had TIME to read through, but just opted not to. This game is one of the shortest games you could replace into and he didn't get through that.

[Kairal]

I've been feeling a bit suspicious of Shadow too. However I am concerned that it's just because he's calling me out. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

[Kairal]

I've been giving Shadow a pass on his low content because Day 2 was pretty short. However I just checked and his first post on Day 1 was 8 days before we lynched Io. That's a pretty long time and he still hasn't 'caught up'. You really need to start contributing more Shadow.

[massive]

Why do you want me to waste a third day pushing for your lynch when we've seen from experience it probably won't go through?

The other people who pushed it were Grey (dead) and MDS. I'm just curious why MDS doesn't at least get the benefit of "the enemy of my enemy" here.

So one of the proponents of the wagon is dead and

that's

why it's a good idea to push you again? Am I reading this right?

I'm not sure what you mean with your enemy of my enemy thing

Let me see if I can ask a better question.

D1-2 you think I'm scum. MDS thinks I'm scum. I think she's scum. Now D3 you think she's scum. So ... what's your read on our interaction between each other? You think it's scum theater?

[Flubbernugget]

Considering you are still alive it's a good possibility. Also I didn't just start scumreading MDS today.

I still have no clue why Grey being dead means I should push for you to end up not getting lynched

again

[Flubbernugget]

Also, considering neither of you have flipped, why should your two interactions change my reads when their basis has nothing to do with your interactions to each other anyway?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

As in, they were laying low but still around to resolve lynches

Sorry, I just to make sure that I understand. You are saying:

• that culted and I Am Innocent are Town
  
• that some people expressed suspicion of them because of their seeming inactivity
  
• that their seeming inactivity is due to the holidays and therefore not suspicious

Is that correct?

[Dierfire]

@Aj The Epic

I'm acknowledging your points in 1014. In recent games I've been incorrectly suspicious of Shadow_step at a high rate, and I'm not confident that I have a plan to read him correctly. To be honest, I was reading the slot entirely on the basis of the D1 CloudKicker activity (other than checking that inactivity by itself isn't a specific indicator that Shadow_step is Mafia). I'd be interested in whether you see anything interesting in ISO from CloudKicker; it's true that I was reading alignment from one or two specific data points rather than a trend, but I was feeling pretty good about those data points.
In the meantime I'll read over some more old games and try to work my way around this block.

[Dierfire]

@Shadow_step

I read your 1010. I surmise that you feel that -Grey- was correct to be suspicious of Aj The Epic? Did you have anything else to add?

[Aj The Epic]

I'd be interested in whether you see anything interesting in ISO from CloudKicker; it's true that I was reading alignment from one or two specific data points rather than a trend, but I was feeling pretty good about those data points.

There's nothing in Cloud's ISO that screams scum, but most of his iso is just NAI.

[Shadow_step]

@Mod, I'm going to have to ask to replace out, I can't find the time for this. Sorry to everyone in the game.