Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)
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MiniDeathStar she/herMafia Scumshe/her
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: September 24, 2016
- Pronoun: she/her
- Location: Europe
I've been meaning to take a good hard look at culted and IamI since Yesterday, but I'm on vacation and another game was (and still is) kind of preoccupying me, so that'll have to come in gradually and in small segments. I'm sorry.
But feel totally free to check them yourselves in the meantime. I think Io might have been onto something there.-
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Aj The Epic Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 4567
- Joined: November 10, 2012
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culted Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 1045
- Joined: December 4, 2016
What was believable about his claim?In post 974, MiniDeathStar wrote:Kairal, culted, IamI and massive claimed they didn't believe the claim.
Again. Notice a pattern?-
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I Am Innocent Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5726
- Joined: February 3, 2010
- Location: Massachusetts
Mafia theory time, regarding this and the 'who didn't believe the Newman claim' patterns you are pointing out.In post 972, MiniDeathStar wrote:In post 867, Gamma Emerald wrote:6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-,I Am Innocent, culted
Either we were all absolutely totally wrong as town and scum didn't even need to wagon these people (and make themselves look bad), or scum decided to sponsor them a little bit.In post 960, mhsmith0 wrote:Secret Agent Jin (6), Flubbernugget , massive , -Grey- , Kairal LYNCH!culted , I Am Innocent
Do you notice a certain pattern here?
Do scum usually vote together like I think you are trying to hint with me and culted?
Do scum usually like to be on all the town wagons? (Look at DGBs scumputer and it shows a greater correlation to being scum for players on some town wagons and off other town wagons)
Scum would have known Newman was town, so they would have likely believed his claim. So how would scum act? Once again I think you throw out patterns and assume 1, maybe 2 did not believe him and 1, maybe 2 scum did believe him. (Yes this assumes 3 scum total) like voting, scum are usually pretty careful to try to mix it up and blend in, not go all united together as you are hinting.
I did not like these posts by mini at all, but iso'ing her again I still think she is town. Misguided on me yeah but still prob town none the less.
Like I said I still want to check some voting histories and would like to ISO a few players if not all. Two players that I have not suspected much this game have recently caught my eye, tho one dropped a very strong early D1 town tell that is usually right :-/
More to come.ShowTown 21-21-1
Mafia 10-6
Replaced Out (Town) 1-5
Replaced Out (Mafia) 3-2 (incl hydra game with Nero where I flaked)
Ongoing
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I Am Innocent Jack of All Trades
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massive Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4918
- Joined: July 16, 2003
- Location: The Springs, CO
The problem with doing ANY kind of votecount analysis is that .. well, we have a lot of holes in patterns due to the lack of votecounts in this game. Anyone who wants to use it is practically going to have to go back and redo a bunch of them.
Mini, it also doesn't count the fact that you are practically rushing the IO lynch yourself - you post this:
between I Am Innocent's L-1 vote and Culted's hammer.In post 851, MiniDeathStar wrote:I just love how nonchalant Io is at L-1.
I'm not necessarily saying you're wrong, but I will also agree with IaI's post above, that if I were scum in that situation, I doubt I'd start the next day by sitting right next to my partner again, and certainly not in the very next post. (Their votes are 889 and 890 respectively.) (And 891 definitely doesn't make it seem like they're partners.)
If you want to do culted, though, I can get on board with that."1AM .. not a good time to think I started mixing massive and mathcam" - Totem, DP8
"unvote mlaker; vote massive; It's like MeMe/mneme and Corsato/Cadmium" - Dragon Phoenix, Newbie 38
PLEASE NOTE: I actively avoid being online on weekends! Don't replace me just because of this!-
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Kairal Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 651
- Joined: October 11, 2016
massive's last post is pretty convincing. I agree that scum would probably not want to vote for the same person in such quick succession. On the other hand the day did end somewhat faster than people were expecting. It's not impossible they were planning to move their votes a little later on.
I also agree that scum would probably believe Newman - they know he's not on their team at the least. Given that they were planning to kill him anyway did they have any real reason to try and throw doubt on his claim? I don't really see the scum motive personally.
I think the main thing I want right now is to see a bit more from Shadow.-
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Aj The Epic Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: November 10, 2012
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Shadow_step Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 2956
- Joined: May 12, 2016
- Location: 221B, Baker Street
So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?ShowThe shadows betray you, because they serve me.
"Chrim and Shadow_step town MVPs. There was a point at the game I was legitimately in fear." ~Zach
"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel-
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Aj The Epic Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4567
- Joined: November 10, 2012
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Flubbernugget Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11751
- Joined: June 26, 2014
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Aj The Epic Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4567
- Joined: November 10, 2012
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massive Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4918
- Joined: July 16, 2003
- Location: The Springs, CO
Never mind that, after spending two days voting for me, why are you suddenly willing to switch to my biggest scumread from those two days?"1AM .. not a good time to think I started mixing massive and mathcam" - Totem, DP8
"unvote mlaker; vote massive; It's like MeMe/mneme and Corsato/Cadmium" - Dragon Phoenix, Newbie 38
PLEASE NOTE: I actively avoid being online on weekends! Don't replace me just because of this!-
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Aj The Epic Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4567
- Joined: November 10, 2012
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
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Kairal Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 651
- Joined: October 11, 2016
I'd like to hear more from you. I don't really have any kind of read on you right now.In post 983, Shadow_step wrote:So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?-
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Flubbernugget Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11751
- Joined: June 26, 2014
What do your scum reads have to do with mine?In post 987, massive wrote:Never mind that, after spending two days voting for me, why are you suddenly willing to switch to my biggest scumread from those two days?-
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Flubbernugget Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Joined: June 26, 2014
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Easy stuff first!
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The "slip" line from CloudKicker in 43 is still unlikely from a Mafia player. The decreased activity level from Shadow_step is unfortunate but not suspicious in itself; my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.
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I Am Innocent was off of my radar for a long time, but now occupies a position that I'd consider among the stronger Town reads. Checking into my predecessor (893) is a level of effort that seems less likely to come from a Mafia player (also it's an unusual target for effort by a Mafia player).
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In addition to all of my previous thoughts about Aj the Epic that still stand (656 mostly), I'm now adding that Aj The Epic responds to Io as I would expect a Town player to. Some of this is difficult to phrase (relies on things like "tone" and "gut"), but I think that I can safely point to things like 434 (very shortly after Io incorrectly attributes a read to Aj The Epic, he corrects her--this suggests a legitimately held read and familiarity with the thought process as opposed to a falsified thought process that needs checking before a response comes together).
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My secondary tier consists of players like MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and culted. I was reading them as Town D1, but due to time/decay and my baseline assumption that I'm wrong about one or more of the players I was reading as Town, I'm less confident in these.-
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@MiniDeathStar
I'm having a bit of difficulty reading Kairal myself. I thought that many things pointed toward Town alignment, but as I already have too many players as Town I've been fretting about things that I might have missed. How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?In post 971, MiniDeathStar wrote:By the way: I just finished a game where Kairal was scum and totally fooled me, so I'm no longer locktown on him. Just town.-
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@massive
I found this while reading over again, and I've two questions. What specifically did you like about my 656, and do you still like those things?In post 913, massive wrote:I don't have any issue with Dierfire. 656 is good townposting. Also I find his push on Io consistent even if ultimately wrong, which feels good to me.-
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@Flubbernugget
I'm aware of several methodological problems with the VCA. As you believe that MiniDeathStar is Mafia, I assume that you find those problems likely to be intentional. What implications would you propose for the alignments of the players involved?In post 985, Flubbernugget wrote:Still sticking to my suspicions from before + her vca is awful-
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Flubbernugget Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Joined: June 26, 2014
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Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I asked for two reasons.
The first was that MiniDeathStar pointed to two players as suspicious in the VCA of 972 (I Am Innocent and culted) and four players as suspicious in relation to the claim from HellloooNewman in 974 (those two plus massive and Kairal). Given my reads, I was not thinking that all four were likely to be Town, so I was more hoping than expecting that you would have some great insight into resolving that.
Given your previously stated objections to associations before flips, however, I was more realistically hoping to have you discuss your independent reads on those players.
Does that tentative supposition (MiniDeathStar is Mafia trying to unfairly implicate culted and I Am Innocent, who are both Town), match your independent reads?-
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Shadow_step Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 2956
- Joined: May 12, 2016
- Location: 221B, Baker Street
@DF can you ISO grey so that we can pseudo clear some people.
Also why do you think he was killed?ShowThe shadows betray you, because they serve me.
"Chrim and Shadow_step town MVPs. There was a point at the game I was legitimately in fear." ~Zach
"I'm mightily impressed by Shadow's ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills." ~Michel
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