Alright, have I got things straight this time? (Titus, if I've left something out it's an oversight/lack of understanding on my part, not me trying to paint you as scum).
The options are:
A.
Transcend was roleblocked after activating BP
Titus inherited the remaining powers.
Titus attempted to check someone for a gun last night, but got no result.
She may have been roleblocked or there may be an ascetic.
(Questions: What are the chances of a multi-shot roleblocker? Why wasn't Titus killed as well as blocked?)
B.
Transcend activated BP but was strongmanned.
Titus inherited the remaining powers.
Titus attempted to check someone for a gun last night, but got no result.
She may have been roleblocked, or there may be an ascetic.
(Questions: Is a 1 shot strongman likely? If not, why wasn't Titus killed last night? Are a strongman and a roleblocker together likely in this setup?)
C.
Transcend didn't activate BP, he used a different power thinking that he would be saved by another town PR, but he got NKed
Titus inherited the remaining powers
Titus used the BP last night, but is pretending that she used gunsmith instead.
Titus wasn't roleblocked (or if she was, scum didn't attempt to kill her as well). There could still be a roleblocker or an ascetic but because Titus didn't check anyone she has no way of knowing.
(Questions: What does Titus get from this, other than watching us all guess who was investigated?)
D.
Titus is talking out her ass and is scum or a VT on a gambit
Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)
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JaeReed
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JaeReed Jack of All Trades JaeReed
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shannon
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shannon
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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A. "The chances" are a hard thing to describe, but if you look at the archived normal games and use ctrl+F to search for "Jack" and "JOAT" you will find several games in which town has a joat and mafia has a roleblocker, and very few, if any (I didn't notice any at least but I was looking for JOAT+RB combos) in which Town has a JOAT and mafia has a Strongman. I feel like Strongman is usually used to balance out multiple protectives in a game, but I don't know. I could go back and search Strongman on that page and look for how often I see strongman without multiple protectives. I saw very few 1-shot roleblockers if any, most were full roleblockers and there were a couple of 2-shot roleblockers. If Titus is truly UB that inheritied Transcend's JOAT, scum could RB her to make us think she is scum fakeclaiming and cause us to mislynch her. Another explanation for why she wasn't killed is that Transcend d7 and I were obviously townblocking since D1 along with TTTT, although he was voting less in the same vein as us and he is the one I've been most suspicious ofinsidethe block.
B. Strongman seems unlikely for above reasons unless there is a doctor or some other protective out there. If there were and they targeted Transcend night 1 (which they should have since he claimed PR) then Transcend should not have died even if he was roleblocked unless there was a strongman. I think strongman is only likely if there is a doctor or bodyguard, and if there is a strongman there is probably not a roleblocker unless the roleblocker and strongman are a JOAT that has 1 shot of each.
C. Titus has already claimed that Transcend chose to use his BP.
D. Is why I'm voting Titus-
ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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Spoiler: Day 1 Colored VCs
Spoiler: Day 2 Colored VCs
Posting these w/o analysis for now so people can see them, also it's late and I'm sleeping soon so I'll analyze later. Impressions as I was coloring though are that Sesq is probably town and Drone has some questionable unvotes at times. Also players that were on both of the final wagons that aren't dead include Kyouko, gerryoat, and TTTT. Sesq and Raskol lynched scum but not town. Titus and Drone lynched town but not scum.-
TTTT
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TTTT Jack of All Trades TTTT
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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shannon
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shannon Mafia Scum shannon
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Following on from the VC post (and thank you for colour coding), in spoilers are what I think are the key L-1 and L-2 wagons, with colours. Dark green = conf town, light green = town according to SSBM. I'm giving SSBM a town colour for the sake of the exercise, as well as giving myself one because I know my role PM and because LUV found no motion on me. (From all of your perspectives, consider that as 'for the sake of the exercise').
If we accept that SSBM and I are both town, some interesting stuff comes out:
- The initial L-1 wagon on RB in 910 was all town + Drone. When the lynch actually happened in 1397, though, Gerry, Iron, and TTTT had replaced Drone and LUV on it.
- The L-1 wagon on Titus in 1641 was all town + Drone.
- The wagon on me in 1930 was all town + Rask
- LUV's wagon was a mix of people SSBM is town reading, and TTTT, gerry, Titus, and Drone.
The lynches are carried out by remarkably similar groups
Transcend,drealmerz7,ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq,gerryoat, ironstove,TTTT
TTTT,gerryoat,drealmerz7, Titus,ssbm_Kyouko, Drone
Spoiler:-
shannon
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shannon Mafia Scum shannon
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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TTTT when did your read on Gerry change, if it did change? Why did it change, again, if it did change?
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shannon
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shannon Mafia Scum shannon
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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Want to see what Titus has in the way of VCA as well, she seems fond of doing it. rb was also the 3rd onto the d7 wagon so shannon may be town for that wagon as well, given the way rb gets onto the wagon (buddying).
Kohai->Gerryoat
iamafluffyrabbit->Titus
ironstove->Raskolnikov-
shannon
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shannon Mafia Scum shannon
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ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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Again that's a weird way to ask because I can't really say but I've looked into that which is why I want to lynch within them. I ended up moving to LUV yesterday because his claim looked conveniently crafted to fit other players' claims. If he would have claimed 2-shot follower from the start I'd have been more inclined to stay off him yesterday.-
ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko She/HerJack of All Trades ssbm_Kyouko She/Her
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Like I think there's no way they're both town. It's possible they're really neighbors but I can't see them both being town. They're also the only players to simultaneously vote me the whole game if I'm not mistaken which makes me think the neighborhood might be real but that maybe they're not both scum and it's only one of them. A game just finished that I caught scum!Drone in (my first Newbie, lasted like 6 weeks
) so I can finally talk about it but I'd need to read him closer and see what I think of him there compared to now. Raskol was in that game too but she got killed N1 for being obvtown-
Titus
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Titus She/herMoon Walker Titus She/her
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Ok, I am telling Drone my target. I am reasonably confident my target is scum with the jumping out of the wood work to attack me.
I am explicitly asking he keep it quiet until midday.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
TTTT
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TTTT Jack of All Trades TTTT
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Drone
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Drone Mafia Scum Drone
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There's one problem Titus.
How could I fuck up your target or action while it's day 3? Assuming I'm scam according to your theory.
Heck, you have more holes in your posts than a Swiss cheese!
It's very possible Titus is our scum JOAT btw, conveniently claiming ub after Transcend's death.
I'm also willing to lynch Shanna, if you guys prefer her over Titus because of Drealm flipping town.
VOTE: Titus
I received Titus' target. Will abide to her request.For science. For the mind!-
Titus
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Titus She/herMoon Walker Titus She/her
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No result suggested scum, but it's the rapid change in underlying thought.In post 2167, TTTT wrote:How does "no result" + scum reading you = scum ?
Yesterday, the theory was scum roleblocked rb.
If Titus lives, scum have to mess with her. I must out my selected action immediately. Strongly suggests there's an ascetic buddy who needs protecting.
@Drone, I told you at the start of D3. I didn't tell you last night because you could fuck with it. The rapid votes indicate my target is scum.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
Drone
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Drone Mafia Scum Drone
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Drone
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Drone Mafia Scum Drone
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Wow.In post 2157, shannon wrote:Based on this, I reckon we have a Rask + Drone team. They are taking turns to be on the most popular wagon, but both needed to join the LUV one to get the PR lynch through.
I would be very, very interested to hear who Titus targeted last night.
Yes.
When Raskolnikov replaced Ironstove, we still kept the original plan.
Oh dear.
VOTE: Shannon
You aren't even the center of attention, how can you afford that shading?
You are better of off the radar, but... You have the urge to prove innocence, cause you're not... Right?For science. For the mind!-
Drone
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Drone Mafia Scum Drone
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Titus
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Titus She/herMoon Walker Titus She/her
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Right. I want to see reactions of town versus scum. I voted Shannon due to the absence of a roleblock assumption, which suggests scum did not block me.In post 2170, Drone wrote:But you didn't tell me whom, when asked about it you said you didn't because I could fuck it up.
How?
You told me the result, not target.
There's something called slow play of information. I am good with it as cop.
See Wake's Role Madness. I guilted practically all of the scum. Only my first check was wrong.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
Impoetic
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Impoetic Mafia Scum Impoetic
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If scum is gonna keep Titus alive, they'd have to do more than mess with her; they'd have to have some reasonworth risking getting roleblocked or guiltiedafter one of their partners had been lynched day 1.
Also, we lynched nilla mafia. The mafia that leads the kill would be the second least-important member, right? And we think they have a strongman?
I feel like the mafianotleading the kill would have to be visiting n1, making Shannon less likely mafia solely because LUV was real.
Maybe I shouldn't try to take any of this into consideration when I'm so bad at it and know nothing about setups. Idk.
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