Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Trojan Horse]

(@TH - It's pretty clear that scum counterclaiming well yesterday would not have been "incredibly stupid")

Okay. Last time.

Two people claim vig. We know one is vig and one is scum. What do we do? We don't risk a guess. We no-lynch (the one case where I would've favored a no-lynch). Let the vig and the scum take each other out. No guesswork needed.

Scum counterclaiming vig would've been incredibly stupid. It would've meant certain death for that scum.

Am I the only one who has heard of this situation before?

[pwayne66]

Am I the only one who has heard of this situation before?

I've not heard of it. Is it possible? Will the Mod process both choices or give priority to one over the other?

[Trojan Horse]

Normally, both actions would be processed. In fact, that's a pretty big "normally"; so big, that I'd hope that a mod who did otherwise would warn the group ahead of time.

[tyhess]

I've been reading since I was lynched, but not paying attention as much as I would have if I had been playing...I'm going to back and reread (not right now-work to do). I'll probably go in like 5 page increments or something and then post, not really sure. 1 thing I would like though is that if you have anything to say about what I'm posting, to wait until I'm done with the re-read because my opinions will probably change, and I'd like to reread everything before I get into any arguments. Let me know if anyone has a problem with that-I should be done with the reread friday or saturday....

[vollkan]

Okay. Last time.

Two people claim vig. We know one is vig and one is scum. What do we do? We don't risk a guess. We no-lynch (the one case where I would've favored a no-lynch). Let the vig and the scum take each other out. No guesswork needed.

Scum counterclaiming vig would've been incredibly stupid. It would've meant certain death for that scum.

Am I the only one who has heard of this situation before?

I've never heard of this situation before.

You may have a point here. In the event of Oman claiming, a counter-claim would trigger your acceptance of a No Lynch. I don't know whether a No Lynch would have been guaranteed even then, but it definitely would be an option in that scenario which worked against the scum.

[pwayne66]

MoS, have you heard of this scenario before?

[Trojan Horse]

I could see a scum claiming vig early in day 3, so as to draw out the real vig (assuming they didn't already know who the vig was). But that has its risks. The vig could simply sit back and not counterclaim. No real need to, since he can just shoot the scum night 3 anyway. But the vig might not think of that, so that's a possible scum tactic.

What I CAN'T see is the scum claiming vig AFTER the real vig has claimed. The vig has been exposed. The scum can kill him off at night. Why should the scum expose one of their own? The town would leave both claimed vigs alone, and let them kill each other off. Counterclaiming the vig would be a total waste. (As you should know, MoS. You must have seen this situation a bunch of times before.)

I actually don't think I've ever seen that scenario. It didn't occur to me until you mentioned it the first time, and I'm clearly not the only one who didn't think of it. Clearly you've put more thought into the ramifications of scum strategies than the rest of us.

[pwayne66]

ah. I must have missed that.

[Trojan Horse]

I can believe that you've never heard of this scenario before, pwayne. I can also believe that vollkan has never heard of it. But I find it strange that MoS said HE has never heard of it. Perhaps it never came up in any of his forum games, but it must have come up in a scumchat game, or at least in the mafia discussion forum. MoS is a veteran. I'd think he would've heard about the counterclaiming vig scenario before.

(As for why I've heard of it: I played in a Texas Justice Mafia game on the Grey Labyrinth a while back. It also came up in one of my scumchat games.)

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't frequent mafia discussion for discussing actual scenarios. The few times I post there are for improving our system of mafia rather than discussing strategies and situations. As for scumchat, it's just never come up. We've had a lot of crazy stuff, but a guy claiming vig is more likely to get randomly lynched in scumchat anyways, so scum don't need to counterclaim.

[tyhess]

I had this sweet post written up, and then it was messed up by my computer, so here's shot number 2 (which is never as good as number 1). I was killed on page 51, and my first thought after I was killed was that Vollkan was scum. I beleive that CKD and MoS were the 2 people killed by the scum at night; at the time, ckd was at little to no suspision, and MoS only at moderate suspision. This leads me to beleive that volkan would have been NK if he wasn't scum, based on the fact that the scum would want him out of the game- everybody seemed to listen to him.

Tar suggests a mass claim, which nobody seemed to agree with except for oman. I think that was how the scum found out oman was the vig, and why it was later proposed that we no lynch. He tried slipping that in so that noone would think he was the vig, but he over played it by agreeing to the mas claim.

page 52 was just a lot of pwayne and vollkan going back in forth, with a little bit of flameaxe stuff in there....


Post 1305 show that a lot of TH's posts were suspisions against pro town players, and he had a lot of fence sitting....

In 1339 TH post yet again that me and MOS died in the night, killing off his too biggest suspisions.....

Post 1311 and 1312 by TH and vollkan look to me as if they are scum partners......



that's through page 54....more later....

[Mastermind of Sin]

Good point about TH's suspicions dying off at night. I've seen that happen a lot from scum. Heck, I've done it myself. In Jack of All Trades, nearly everyone I attacked died at night. It doesn't make you look as scummy if you don't actually get them lynched, but you can waste all your time attacking them and then kill them off. No one can accuse you of not contributing, but you haven't brought yourself into the spotlight by pushing a big wagon, either.

[vollkan]

I had this sweet post written up, and then it was messed up by my computer, so here's shot number 2 (which is never as good as number 1). I was killed on page 51, and my first thought after I was killed was that Vollkan was scum. I beleive that CKD and MoS were the 2 people killed by the scum at night; at the time, ckd was at little to no suspision, and MoS only at moderate suspision. This leads me to beleive that volkan would have been NK if he wasn't scum, based on the fact that the scum would want him out of the game- everybody seemed to listen to him.

You make a legitimate point. That said, the fact that I have not been NKed can indicate a myriad of things, rather than your conclusion that it means I am probably scum (eg. - that my opinions are hideously misguided and I am barking up the wrong tree, an effort to WIFOM, perceiving me as less dangerous than MoS or CKD, etc.)

Was this the entire extent of your case, or did you have something more substantial in your full post?

[tyhess]

Pages 55-57

vollkan and pwayne go at it again, this time about pwayne's vote on vollkan. pwayne put a vote out their with not much of a reason, and in a lylo situation to boot. Not good. The only good reason was the lynch to not self hammer argument, which was pretty stupid imo.

In post 1359, vollkan defends oman hammer for some reason, saying that Oman explained it when he voted, so that makes it all fine and dandy. I disagree (a lot). This was before Oman had some what explained the vote in 1360.


in 1361 Vollkan calls out oman for the same faulty reason that I saw, which was good. But he also called out oman for "thinking" vollkan and himself was town, which was stretching it in my opinion.

vollkan also "noted" oman's "soft claim" were he claimed town....


end of page 55....if it seems like most of my stuff is attacking vollkan, it's because it is. His are the only posts that look suspiscious too me as I'm going through....


in 1375, TH yet again mentions his broken scumdar and how the four people that have been killed he had suspisions about them all, and the only "bad guy" killed was teh cult recruiter, which plays into my TH killed CKD and MoS theory.

vollkans 1401=good post imo, calling out TH about thinking oman/theo were scumpartners, even thought he thought oman was resonable other than the hammer.


Post 1408-TH says that he doesn't have suspision of vollkan, but his states (again) that his scumdar is broken. Seems to me liek he was giving himself an out if vollkan was scum.

MoS ends up being the one to suggest the no lynch. It would fit that he went back and reread and caught the same things from oman that I did, but the only reason that this doesn't automatically mean he's scum in my opinion was that oman was already being called out. If he thought Oman was the vig, he would have let him be lynched, and the NK.


Post 1419 stands out to me (from MoS). Not a normal quote tag, but here it is:

"You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game. "


The offchance that out vig dies.....hmmmmmm.....

That's it for up to page 57....I should be able to get more tonight.....

[Trojan Horse]

I want to limit my replies to tyhess's observations, since he said to lay off until he has done the full reread (a reasonable request). I will say a couple of things:

1. Since tyhess is speculating about which nightkills were from the vig and which were from the scum, I'll say that probably CKD was the scumkill Night 1. I know that Oman was telling White to leave him alone during day 1, so it would make sense that Oman would vig White night 1. So I think tyhess was right on that point. Night 2? I have no clue on that one.

2. Thanks for pointing out post 1419. Missed that one.

[vollkan]

I'll respond to the points raised regarding myself.

In post 1359, vollkan defends oman hammer for some reason, saying that Oman explained it when he voted, so that makes it all fine and dandy. I disagree (a lot). This was before Oman had some what explained the vote in 1360.

Oman's "preventing a self hammer" justification was an unusual one, but still "valid". As I say in 1359, that raises the obvious question of why Oman chose to support the lynch when he suspected TH. I did not say it was "fine and dandy", nor did I imply that. My thinking was that it was a sufficient explanation, in that it covered everything, but was a "bizarre reason" nonetheless. I did, however, take issue with the TH anomaly which I raised.

in 1361 Vollkan calls out oman for the same faulty reason that I saw, which was good. But he also called out oman for "thinking" vollkan and himself was town, which was stretching it in my opinion.

vollkan also "noted" oman's "soft claim" were he claimed town....

Actually, I only called him out for saying that he thought himself to be pro-town, since I would have expected a bit more certainty from him. Really, this was just me being pedantic in order to garner some reaction from him - it wasn't stretching because it wasn't really "suspicious", just something I was interested in seeing how he explained it.

end of page 55....if it seems like most of my stuff is attacking vollkan, it's because it is. His are the only posts that look suspiscious too me as I'm going through....

Again, I ask whether the points you have raised in-thread were the only ones you had, because I can't actually see any case for me to rebut.

I mean, so far we've only had:
1) The fact I have not been NKed.
2) My partial defence of Oman. (I say "partial" because whilst I thought that his actions were bizarre, I could not see what necessarily made them scummy, other than the TH thing)
3) The "thinking" point

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't think Oman killed MoS Night 2. Just sayin'.

Tyhess, when you're done, can you give us a little ordered list of your suspicions so that we can actually tell where you think people stand?

For example, my list would be Trojan, Tyhess, vollkan, pwayne from scummiest to least scummy.

[pwayne66]

I was just getting comfortable with a tar/TH pairing... TH/vollkan is certainly compelling. Oman being vig took the wind out of my sails re: my vollkan = scum suspicions, but that may have been premature. I think tyhess's case needs a little more substance before I buy it though... going to do some TH/Vollkan connection research.

[tyhess]

Hopefully I can finish this tonight/tommorow

page 58:


1426 seems to scream to me that TH knows who the vig is. He either forgets the vig is alive, or thinks the scum is going to kill them. At first he says that the only way that happens is if the cult recruit survives and the vig dies, but he seems pretty set that the vig is gong to die. MoS justifiably calls him out in 1427.


Scratch that last part. It was later explained....

post 1448 (and then in 1450) oman yet again tries to role fish, and I think it hurt him....


PAGE 59

quote from MoS1458:

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking. Leaving Oman alive with their ticket to freedom, I would've been all over his ass today...that's just scary. Even in a counterclaim situation I would've voted Oman. So the town just got another chance at winning the game through that Oman kill. Thanks scum. You really did yourself in this time. [/gratuitous scumtell paragraph]


very suspisious imo


In 1477, Th's scumdar magically works again, and its during lylo.......


Mos explains how the no lynch would have been bad for him if he had thought oman was the vig. Me like.


TH (1478) becomes so much more aggessive now that its endgame, and is broken scumday is amazing again. Not so good.


This is takign a lot longer than I thought it would.....page 61:
Actually I skimmed61-62 and saw nothing of huge importance...let me know if theres anything huge that yoiu want me to check out I will.

I have read up to the part that I have joined. I think there are two possible scum partners in my opinion: MoS/TH and vollkan/TH. Obviously I think TH is defenitely scum, but here's a synopis of all players (main things):

TH-broken scumdar was broken, but it magically gets fixed in endgame.
-he thought there was a scum role, which wasn't likely
-has completely switched his play from fence sitting to ultra agressiveness.

MoS-started the No lynch idea, and seems to know more than everyone else.


vollkan-not NKed yet (not the best scum tell, but I thibk it's one)
-links mentioned between him and Th

pwayne has seemed to stay under the radar. Not good either.

However, I would go at this point

1) TH









2 tie) MoS/vollkan
3) pwayne

I'll comment on everything since I've started later.

[vollkan]

-links mentioned between him and Th

Where were links to TH mentioned?

[tyhess]

I had this sweet post written up, and then it was messed up by my computer, so here's shot number 2 (which is never as good as number 1). I was killed on page 51, and my first thought after I was killed was that Vollkan was scum. I beleive that CKD and MoS were the 2 people killed by the scum at night; at the time, ckd was at little to no suspision, and MoS only at moderate suspision. This leads me to beleive that volkan would have been NK if he wasn't scum, based on the fact that the scum would want him out of the game- everybody seemed to listen to him.

You make a legitimate point. That said, the fact that I have not been NKed can indicate a myriad of things, rather than your conclusion that it means I am probably scum (eg. - that my opinions are hideously misguided and I am barking up the wrong tree, an effort to WIFOM, perceiving me as less dangerous than MoS or CKD, etc.)

Was this the entire extent of your case, or did you have something more substantial in your full post?

I thought about both of those other possibilities; however, I beleive the case I presented to be more plausible: I don't beleive their is a lot of WIFOM going on and even if you are wrong people are following you and theres a chance you find scum-if scum, I would rather be able to control the town-not possible with you in. I would say just based off of this its 5% hideously misguided, 19.1% WIFOM, and 75.9% scum, based solely on those options for not being NKed.

red=me in the next 2-3 quotes.

I'll respond to the points raised regarding myself.

In post 1359, vollkan defends oman hammer for some reason, saying that Oman explained it when he voted, so that makes it all fine and dandy. I disagree (a lot). This was before Oman had some what explained the vote in 1360.

Oman's "preventing a self hammer" justification was an unusual one, but still "valid". As I say in 1359, that raises the obvious question of why Oman chose to support the lynch when he suspected TH. I did not say it was "fine and dandy", nor did I imply that. My thinking was that it was a sufficient explanation, in that it covered everything, but was a "bizarre reason" nonetheless. I did, however, take issue with the TH anomaly which I raised.

I still think that you may have given way to much in the argument, but I understand what your saying....

in 1361 Vollkan calls out oman for the same faulty reason that I saw, which was good. But he also called out oman for "thinking" vollkan and himself was town, which was stretching it in my opinion.

vollkan also "noted" oman's "soft claim" were he claimed town....

Actually, I only called him out for saying that he thought himself to be pro-town, since I would have expected a bit more certainty from him. Really, this was just me being pedantic in order to garner some reaction from him - it wasn't stretching because it wasn't really "suspicious", just something I was interested in seeing how he explained it.

I saw, and still see it, as trying a little too hard....however, it's not a huge thing to tht we need to get into......

end of page 55....if it seems like most of my stuff is attacking vollkan, it's because it is. His are the only posts that look suspiscious too me as I'm going through....

Again, I ask whether the points you have raised in-thread were the only ones you had, because I can't actually see any case for me to rebut.

I mean, so far we've only had:
1) The fact I have not been NKed.
2) My partial defence of Oman. (I say "partial" because whilst I thought that his actions were bizarre, I could not see what necessarily made them scummy, other than the TH thing)
3) The "thinking" point

[vollkan]

I thought about both of those other possibilities; however, I beleive the case I presented to be more plausible: I don't beleive their is a lot of WIFOM going on and even if you are wrong people are following you and theres a chance you find scum-if scum, I would rather be able to control the town-not possible with you in. I would say just based off of this its 5% hideously misguided, 19.1% WIFOM, and 75.9% scum, based solely on those options for not being NKed.

This is a fairly unarguable point, since it basically depends upon how you perceive the probability. You said before that you believe CKD and MoS were the scum NKs. With that in mind, is it very unlikely that the scum would target CKD over me? Similarly, it is it very unlikely the scum would target MoS over me? I would answer in the negative to both of those.

Also, you keep talking about how people are "following" me. I can't recall any instance of being followed by other players of the top of my head, but I assume that you have some examples?

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS-started the No lynch idea, and seems to know more than everyone else.

Tyhess, can you explain how I "seem to know more than everyone else"? What do I know more than everyone? What information do you think I have, and how does it make me scum?

[Trojan Horse]

Oh man. What a long day. Just my luck that I'd have to give all of my finals on the same day.

Just posting to let you know that I'm still around, and I'm still watching the thread. But I don't think I could contribute much right now, in my current state. It'll have to wait until I've had some sleep.

I'll be at home tomorrow. Expect some content then.

[Trojan Horse]

Aw, you didn't have to wait for me. You could've kept posting.

Where were links to TH mentioned?

Tyhess mentioned it right here, in post 1560:

Post 1311 and 1312 by TH and vollkan look to me as if they are scum partners......

What was this supposed connection between me and vollkan? I looked it up, and I don't see what tyhess is talking about.

Post 1311:

Gack! Not the final installment ; I was being too optimistic. I still need to do Tar, TH and Pwayne.

I might go lazy and not do TH since he has been done adequately by theo.

Post 1312:

Besides, pwayne is working on mine. So don't worry about it.

Just do Tar's. His is easy. We can fight over who will do one for pwayne later.

I've got about 20 posts to go for vollkan. I'll post the full PBPA either later today or tomorrow.

Those were from when we were divvying up PBPA's. And this is supposed to be a connection between us?? I don't get it.

Another thing:

Tyhess, can you explain how I "seem to know more than everyone else"? What do I know more than everyone? What information do you think I have, and how does it make me scum?

I may be putting words in tyhess's mouth, but it seems like he's agreeing with me that you may have had some info that Oman was the vig. Let me re-quote the two posts from you that he mentioned, and add in a third quote:

From post 1419:

You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game.

From post 1437:

That's why we should no lynch before the mafia have the chance to find out who the vig is. The more information we give them, the better chance they have. I don't think it's very obvious right now who it is, though.

From post 1458:

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking. Leaving Oman alive with their ticket to freedom, I would've been all over his ass today...that's just scary. Even in a counterclaim situation I would've voted Oman. So the town just got another chance at winning the game through that Oman kill. Thanks scum. You really did yourself in this time. [/gratuitous scumtell paragraph]

See a pattern?