Mini Normal 1854: Game Over

[Hiraki]

It's not enough to put a vote on someone who randomly switches their read for no reason ever given?

This is your "hero" from Day 1

[Nachomamma8]

Io/Deer:

I don't really think that Io's opening is alignment-indicative; she made an RVS vote against one of the four people who replaced out and then clarified that it wasn't a serious push either. I mean sure, I guess that she could be scum and backtracking because she got too much heat for the push, but seems unlikely to me.

From a body of work perspective, the main reasons that I suspect Deer are:

1) I think that most of his pushes (primarily on Eric and Creeps) have been remarkably easy pushes to make without any conviction. I think that he was attempting to push through easy mislynches, which is a feeling that is especially compounded if Frank flips scum.

2) I think that the readswitch from scumreading TwoFace and Eric to townreading them within the course of a minute looked remarkably odd; don't think that it was a genuine thought progression.

3) I don't like his interaction with havingfitz. He said that he would "read all his posts within 12 hours to get a read on him" lurked for two days, then added him to the suspect list because TwoFace (the person he was scumreading before) said so. When talking about who he was willing to wagon, the people who he is willing to lynch are Hiraki and Creeps and Fitz but he'd rather lynch Hiraki and Creeps over Fitz; this seems especially odd since his top three suspects (in order) before were 1) Creeps, 2) Gamma, and 3) fitz, so you'd think that even if he was townreading Gamma all of a sudden fitz would still be a stronger read than Hikari.

I'll break down why some of Deer's specific posts bother me in a little bit.

These are Deer thoughts @Vedith.

[TwoFace]

hmm

UNVOTE:

[Nachomamma8]

when people feel they are being pushed for bad reasons as either alignment, it's pretty natural to get upset

except I provided good reasons and he isn't even trying to defend himself from them.

HE said at least 2/3 times that he could/would vote fitz and even had a chance to put him to L-3 and instead he voted creeps?

cmon man that's obvious scum trying to shift the wagon off a buddy, and it worked for a little while

I think the argument that he was attempting to derail the havingfitz wagon by giving reasons why he would vote havingfitz (but not voting him) was silly; if he was trying to derail the wagon, I'd expect that he would defend him instead of offer soft suspicion on him.

Him choosing Creeps over Fitz makes sense based on Hiraki's body of work; Hiraki suspected Creeps more than he suspected Fitz initially, and it's not like support for Creeps ever waned. From his point of view, it doesn't make sense for him to join unless Creeps gave him reason to townread him or support for Creeps fizzled out.

The point in particular that I didn't like was when that he had "better reasons to vote fitz than everyone else", but it's not a point that I can actually put words behind so it doesn't factor into my overall read much.

[Hiraki]

Here's some more things to consider about what TF has done:

1) Not posting enough actual content in the middle of D1 when I had around 40 posts in the game with 20 of them being very content oriented and the other half being quick responses
2) I don't talk about my

town

reads enough (i.e. his scumreads at that time)
3) Not replying to everyone that has voted me (then showed responses that were done prior)
4) Not pushing on Ari for a /page 1/ suspicion (n.b. this plays into the TF really doesn't like anyone who doesn't agree with his reads dealio)
5) "let's be honest here. you didn't really put much work in your uzi scum read imo." - When the wagon got to L-1
6) Having generally bad posts but never commenting on what is actually bad about them

7 would be this Joshz situation but wait, wow - this is actually a christmas miracle

Just one last post that I'd like to bring back up regarding the HF stuff:

quite honestly that's why i can't join the havingfitz wagon because these and other reasons sound v fishy and I'm like I have good reasons but I don't really believe in them and no one else does either so...?

This is why I didn't vote for him. Don't act like I thought my reasons were solid concrete because they never really were.

The point in particular that I didn't like was when that he had "better reasons to vote fitz than everyone else", but it's not a point that I can actually put words behind so it doesn't factor into my overall read much.

another reason for the quote because it demonstrates that i did think I had better reasons but I didn't really think they were /great/ reasons in the first place

I could vote JoshZ based on what we've discussed, there's substantial evidence that makes me say that scum would do this more than town - but when I factor in the actual person in the role, it makes me say nah

HF was 100% the same way

[Nachomamma8]

Gamma is literally terrible. His posts on me conclude that because I'm using emotion, I'm scum - something that hasn't happened since recently. Gamma hasn't said anything about his position. The guy probably has the most posts in the game but the least amount of content.

I need you to do more than prove Gamma has bad logic to show that he's scum; people sometimes stay stupid things (or don't support positions properly), but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're scum.

One particular piece of bad logic - the part where Gamma thought outing the masons was the optimal play for town - seemed to me to be something that was more likely to come from scum than town simply because how brazen it was (not thinking of the circumstances when scum are typically more aware of them). Fitz came down pretty hard against Gamma for this, which I thought was indicative of scum pushing town for bad logic. I find oftentimes that scum push townies hard when they've done something that's objectively bad and overextend themselves a bit - this is what I thought happened with his push on Gamma, and was the reason for my initial scumread on him. What was your opinion on this?

Why did you go from Gamma neutral to Gamma scum? Your tone towards him changes pretty dramatically in 464 and you don't really explain why you were scumreading him in that post.

[Nachomamma8]

I would be OK with anyone saying this but anyone who has thought about voting Eric (like Gamma has done) when Eric does literally the same things from an objective viewpoint. Except, Gamma only shows intent to vote Eric but doesn't do it. There's even a flip-flop on Eric between 185 and 384. Not enough for anyone to question it but there's certainly uncertainty that Gamma is town-reading Eric. In fact, if anything, there's a clear slideline provision there. But the fact that he's going to OK Havingfitz for some of the same things that Eric has literally done puts me at an unease.

I'm not completely sure that I understand the point that you're making here - treating two different people differently makes sense because they're two different people. I agree that both Fitz and Eric were pushing stuff that wasn't actually scummy, but I held Fitz to a higher standard because he knew better while with Eric I understood that he probably wasn't very experienced in this style and being a newer player sometimes makes you tilt at windmills, not to mention anything of the reasons that I was townreading me leaving me a lot more willing to dismiss things that I would push if they were coming out of the mouths of other players.

I don't find it an overly crazy theory to assume that Gamma was bothered by those things because Fitz was experienced and wasn't bothered by those things because Eric wasn't. Why did you?

[TwoFace]

Fitz supposedly doesn't bus so gamma/fitz doesn't make sense to me.

Using that. Fitz/creeps could work but again, others look more suspicious

[TwoFace]

I'm going to look into this josh/vedith thing at some point. He did do a weird 180

[Hiraki]

One particular piece of bad logic - the part where Gamma thought outing the masons was the optimal play for town - seemed to me to be something that was more likely to come from scum than town simply because how brazen it was (not thinking of the circumstances when scum are typically more aware of them). Fitz came down pretty hard against Gamma for this, which I thought was indicative of scum pushing town for bad logic. I find oftentimes that scum push townies hard when they've done something that's objectively bad and overextend themselves a bit - this is what I thought happened with his push on Gamma, and was the reason for my initial scumread on him. What was your opinion on this?

One of the biggest things that I think this game will either prove or disprove is that relying on partner interactions in the early game is a way to cause easy mislynches.

I really don't like looking at these interactions - I don't have any current games but I'm sure most of my old games will demonstrate that. I think people show that they're scummy more than their partners.

However, I will admit that I found most of those conversations to be null. I also hate PR stuff - that's something I'm sure is consistent. I would love to play vanilla mafia all day long rather than mafia with PRs but I'm getting a bit off topic. I really found what Gamma was and wasn't saying was more of an indication to look at him. His vote on me is probably the most flawed and telling one. 245 is a good indication that these aren't new thoughts. I've just been a bit more consistent in focusing my thoughts a little bit more neatly recently.

Keep in mind that Gamma also had scumreads on both Creeps and HF. What was his reasonings for these?

My reasons for voting Creeps are that if he is scum he is using poor play as a smokescreen, and if he is town he is giving power to scum, especially by distrusting the confirmed masons.

Does anyone really buy these reasons? If so, keep this in mind:

I'm dead serious: if we end up not having a decent lynch at deadline I suggest we PL Creeps because his play will get in the way of the town.

This is some of that L/T stuff in action. What has Gamma said about Creeps recently?

VOTE COUNT 1.02

Eric Rasputin (3): Creeps20, Lil Uzi Vert, MisaTange
Lil Uzi Vert (2): Hiraki, TheseViolentDelights
TheseViolentDelights (1): Gamma Emerald
Io (1): havingfitz
Hiraki (1): Io
havingfitz (1): Aristophanes
TwiszTed (1): Eric Rasputin

No Vote (3): TwoFace, FrankJaeger, TwiszTed

TIMER

(expired on 2016-11-30 16:30:00)

NOTES

Seeking replacement for Io

I think I'd rather lynch Creeps than Frank today tbh
He's the only one not confirmed town on the Eric wagon here, and Eric is very likely town.
Would have been nice if I had thought to check this earlier, but Day 1 VCA is usually terrible so w/e

Creeps was the HF wagon yesterday. I find it a bit weird that the three people that Gamma has scumread (HF, Me, Ved) are the three people that have been in focus the most. The discussion on other players is minimal at most. Could it be coincidence? Sure - I'm not too sure about that though. I'm not saying he should write paragraphs of defense, just something that says that they acknowledge their opinion. Here are some more things that have been concerning.

Day one lynches on scum are fucking hard.Compromises will almost always end up in town D1. Compromising from Creeps to Hiraki looks like an excuse to not bus.

I'll vote Creeps if it shows support.

This a hard scum-tell of mine.

Post-edit:

but I held Fitz to a higher standard because he knew better while with Eric I understood that he probably wasn't very experienced in this style and being a newer player sometimes makes you tilt at windmills, not to mention anything of the reasons that I was townreading me leaving me a lot more willing to dismiss things that I would push if they were coming out of the mouths of other players.

Two reasons, don't mind if you honestly don't buy any of them:

1) Maybe it's just because my first newbie game was with Fitz but I thought he had more experience with them. Not enough for me to take action with him but also not enough for me to take action against him. Looking back at it and the way you explained it, that may have been an error in judgment.
2) Much like number 1, people have very very large differences in the way they treat newbies. Even though I said the vanilla stuff above, I really like PRs to get rid of that part. It's obtrusive but the best way to put it. I would rather base my scumreads or townreads on tangible scumtells.

[Joshz]

I'm going to look into this josh/vedith thing at some point. He did do a weird 180

What 180?_?

[TwoFace]

I'm going to look into this josh/vedith thing at some point. He did do a weird 180

What 180?_?

The one you did. On the road ATM. I'll quote it later

[Nachomamma8]

And to Hiraki's benefit, the targets that he's chosen don't really make sense from a mafia perspective; if scum here, he wants to make a strong focused push on someone who can actually get lynched today; looking at the playerlist, these people would be much more Artistophanes/Vedith/AJ/Frank than the Creeps/Gamma/Joshz line that he's chosen. In particular, it stands out to me that the scumread that he feels good about is the one on Gamma (probably not getting lynched today) over the one on Creeps (likelier lynch).

I also don't think AJ/Hiraki is a team that makes sense based on Deer's first EoD, so there's that too.

[Joshz]

I thought we established hiraki was wrong and misread my post? Let's see it

[Joshz]

Idr if I actually posted it but I thought that hiraki/aj was unlikely

[Nachomamma8]

Idr if I actually posted it but I thought that hiraki/aj was unlikely

Why are you thinking Hiraki over AJ?

[TwoFace]

I thought we established hiraki was wrong and misread my post? Let's see it

Well I'll check that also

[Nachomamma8]

Hiraki does have a point with Gamma; there are plenty of things that he's done this game are questionable enough where my floating townread on him doesn't make sense.

The outing of mason partners is understandable to a point, but it's also not like Gamma has seen any mason claims confirmed scum by someone requesting a partner claim, so that's a bit sketchy.
Pointing to the three-man Eric wagon with two masons and Creeps as the reason he was voting Creeps is obviously flawed reasoning; pointing out that there have been three man wagons by town on town before shouldn't actually be something that I had to point out.
I don't like his reasoning for Creeps being someone that we had to PL at point because of his distrust of the masons, especially when his distrust wasn't something that was actively pushed.
I didn't like his vote from Creeps to Fitz to Creeps, but it looked weird and wasn't really all that scummy (not that there was a sudden influx of support for Fitz that would have made him pressured to join).

[Nachomamma8]

I still would like to hear Hiraki's reasons for townreading AJ, though.

[TwoFace]

And to Hiraki's benefit, the targets that he's chosen don't really make sense from a mafia perspective;

How do? They make absolutely no sense from a town perspective. Creeps is lynch bait and the counter to hiraki who based on evidence looks like slam dunk scum.

Gamma is essential clear given fitz late push to get him lynched.

Both maybe useless but are sitting safely on the list of d2 unlynchables imo.

[TwoFace]

I still would like to hear Hiraki's reasons for townreading AJ, though.

Still waiting for game related reasons for vedith town reading hiraki also.

[Nachomamma8]

Creeps is lynch bait and the counter to hiraki

Creeps isn't exactly lynchbait; Creeps being the counter to Fitz has taken away most people's lust for lynching him.
I think that calling Gamma "essential clear" is an oversell based on the evidence we have in front of us; I'm not willing to take it at face value that Fitz "never busses" unless I do the legwork myself. I do think that most people could see that he probably isn't getting lynched today, which is why Hiraki pushing him from a scum perspective is strange.

From a town perspective, I do think that some of the things that Gamma has done this game are weird and warrant questioning; do none of the things that I pointed out in #1517 stand out to you?

[Nachomamma8]

slam dunk scum

I've tried to talk about the reasons I've seen for Hiraki today - are there important pieces that I haven't addressed? Do you understand my perspective on what I have addressed?

[TwoFace]

slam dunk scum

I've tried to talk about the reasons I've seen for Hiraki today - are there important pieces that I haven't addressed? Do you understand my perspective on what I have addressed?

I don't agree with any of your perspectives.

Hiraki scum isn't going to hard defend his scum buddy. Casting shade on him but not voting is the most common form of distancing that I've seen.

His reasons for creeps weren't very good. Nobody's reasons for creeps have been good. It felt like a pl day 1, and it feels like it again today.

Do you seriously think we caught 2 scum day 1? Got one to l-1 and have the wagon fall apart onto another scum?

Seems highly unlikely

[Joshz]

Idr if I actually posted it but I thought that hiraki/aj was unlikely

Why are you thinking Hiraki over AJ?

I am not necessarily. I can't really decide. I really think both are scummy as shit but I also highly doubt they're both scum, so idk where my brain is going. Hiraki is most likely better because an aj flip doesn't give us anywhere near as much info in the event of a town flip. Ajs bad post on me and then disappearing when confronted is weird af, and hiraki immediately joining that is also weird. Hiraki has done some very odd things such as constant questioning over something he ended up misreading, and him questioning me asking aj to build a case on me was dumb because hiraki didn't build a case on me. I've already made posts about why io/deers were scum. I'm wrong on one of them probably so I need time to think about which. Meanwhile, as of now I'd rather hiraki lynch, so my vote is there.