Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?

[BillyTwilight]

I'm down. Not buying the cook claim.

Accuse: Alko

[al_kohaulec]

Boo!! I lost me second vote.

Huzzuh! Day is over.

Now let's lynch Haschel tomorrow, it seems like all three of these games could have easily been won by a massclaim in the very beginning of the game.

[Battle Mage]

yay, 1 more scum down.

[al_kohaulec]

Not yet, Haschel is still alive.

[Haschel Cedricson]

You haven't explained why I'm scum, and I've already explained why I am very unlikely to be.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'll take care of scene stuff this week, I'm having computer problems.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You string Alko up, ignoring her protests. So you kick the chair out from under her, a string of French curses comes out of her mouth, getting cut short as the rope snaps her neck.

Alko, Yvette, SK, lynched Day 4

[Mastermind of Sin]

The last scum has been killed, town wins!

Setup:

Mrs. Peacock - townie
Wadsworth - cop
Mrs. White - tracker
Professor Plum - doctor (quack 0%)
Mr. Green - townie
Colonel Mustard - surprised townie
Miss Scarlet - allied SK
Yvette - allied SK
Mr. Boddy - death miller w/ day ending ability
The Cop - clue finder
The Singing Telegram - clue finder
The Motorist - clue finder

Role Assignments:

chaotic_diablo - Mr Boddy
al_kohaulec - Yvette
Cogito Ergo Sum - The Singing Telegram
DragonsofSummer - Colonel Mustard
dahen - Professor Plum
Jack - Mrs. White
Ancalagon - The Cop
The Central Scrutinizer - Wadsworth
Ectomancer - The Motorist
MrBuddyLee - Miss Scarlet
Battle Mage - Mrs. Peacock
BillyTwilight - Mr. Green

[Mastermind of Sin]

Role PMs:

You are Mrs. Peacock. You're terribly afraid that news will get out that you are taking bribes to influence your husband's votes in the U.S. Senate. You have been paying blackmail to keep things quiet. So tonight, you have arrived at Hill House to resolve this once and for all. If you're lucky, you'll live to tell the tale, or not tell the tale, as the case may be. Your only chance is to help the others get rid of the murderer before it's too late! Please confirm by PM.

You are Wadsworth. You work for the FBI, and you've got to find the killer before the killer finds you. You think you've got it all worked out, but is that what really happened? Maybe you'd better spend some time checking everyone out to make sure you've got your facts straight. Please confirm by PM.

You are Mrs. White. You don't want to be stuck alone with anyone, because they could be the killer! Alas, the group has decided, and you have no choice but to split up into pairs. So, you've decided to keep tabs on everyone in the mansion, just to make sure they don't go anywhere suspicious. Be sure to be stealthy when you follow them, otherwise they might discover you! Please confirm by PM.

You are Professor Plum. Seeing as you're the only one in the mansion with any real exprience in the field of medicine, you've taken it upon yourself to provide medical assistance to the others in the house, in case the killer strikes. Please confirm by PM.

You are Mr. Green. As a homosexual working for the government, you must hide your sexual persuasion in fear of losing your job. You have been paying blackmail to keep things quiet, so tonight, you have arrived at Hill House to resolve this once and for all. If you're lucky, you'll live to tell the tale, or not tell the tale, as the case may be. Your only chance is to help the others get rid of the murderer before it's too late! Please confirm by PM.

You are Colonel Mustard. You can't stand one more surprise in this mansion, and if anything else happens, you might just flip out. If something surprising happens to you, you'll freeze in shock and be unable to speak for a while. Better be careful! Please confirm by PM.

You are Miss Scarlet. You're the one blackmailing everyone, and now is the time to destroy the evidence and kill them off before they discover you. With Yvette as your accomplice, you'll make sure that everything gets done perfectly. However, given the sticky situation, you have decided not to try communicating with Yvette, lest you be discovered. She's expendable anyways, so you wouldn't miss her if she was killed or discovered, as long as you got off scot-free. Please confirm by PM.

You are Yvette. Your employer, Miss Scarlet, is the one blackmailing everyone, and now is the time to destroy the evidence and kill them off before they discover you. You will make sure that everything gets done perfectly, but given the sticky situation, you have decided not to try communicating with Miss Scarlet, lest you be discovered. You'll just do your job and try to eliminate the unnecessary people from the mansion. Please confirm by PM.

You are Mr. Boddy. You have come to the mansion to play the role you've been given tonight, but if you're not careful, you may not make it out alive. Once while in the mansion, you may flip the light switch off, dousing everyone in darkness. Be careful, someone out there may come after you in the dark. Please confirm by PM.

You are The Cop. Something weird is going on in this house, and you intend to find out. You're going to try and find clues that can explain everything. Hopefully, you'll be able to figure out the clues and expose the killer before it's too late! Please confirm by PM.

Da-Dat Da-Dat Dat Da! Hey! You. Are. The Singing Telegram! Some.-Thing. weird is going on in This. House. and you intend to find out. You're. Going. To try and find clues That. Can. Explain everything. Hopefully. You'll. Be able to figure out The. Clues. and expose the Kill.-Er. before it's too late! Please. Con.-firm By PM.

You are The Motorist. Something weird is going on in this house, and you intend to find out. You're going to try and find clues that can explain everything. Hopefully, you'll be able to figure out the clues and expose the killer before it's too late! Please confirm by PM.

Night Choices:

Night 1:

The Central Scrutinizer - MrBuddyLee
dahen - al_kohaulec
MrBuddyLee - al_kohaulec
Ancalagon - BillyTwilight
Cogito Ergo Sum - Ancalagon
Ectomancer - MrBuddyLee
al_kohaulec - Ancalagon

Night 2:

The Central Scrutinizer - dragonsofsummer
al_kohaulec - TCS
dahen - TCS
Cogito Ergo Sum - Battle Mage
Ancalagon - chaotic_diablo
Ectomancer - Cogito Ergo Sum

Night 3:

dahen - DragonsofSummer
Alko - chaotic_diablo
Haschel Cedricson - BillyTwilight

[Mastermind of Sin]

Notes: In retrospect, this setup seems a bit town-sided, even though the town only had clue finders left after Night 2.

[Haschel Cedricson]

How was the Clue Finder mechanic determined?

[dahen]

This was fun.

[DragonsofSummer]

Stupid silence... and I slipped up and spoke at the end of day two even though I wasn't supposed to because I was prodded with everyone else in the game and forgot that I was silenced myself.

[chaotic_diablo]

I'm a death miller? Does that mean I'm town as well?

Two wins out of two games for town. Will scum take home Clue 2?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Yes, c_d was town but would come up as scum on death or investigation.

[BillyTwilight]

yay! I didn't think there was any way alko was the cook in 2 of the clue game.

Lynch FTW.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Billy, just so you know, the chance of Alko being the cook in one game is not at all affected by the fact that he was cook in the other game. The statistics are completely independent of each other. For example, I was scum in all three Post Restriction Mafias. The chance seems astronomically small, but it's not really.

[al_kohaulec]

Notes: In retrospect, this setup seems a bit town-sided, even though the town only had clue finders left after Night 2.

Especially when the game can be broken due to flavor claims.

[BillyTwilight]

Well, yes and no.... this might be where statistics come back to bite me in the ass, but here is how I look at it.

Assuming that The Cook is known to be in every game, there is a 1/12 chance that a player might draw that character for a given game. Simplifying to only 2 games, that's a (1/12)^2 chance that a given player would draw that character in both games = 1/144.

Now, you are completely correct that in each game he still has a 1/12 chance of being the Cook, independent of the other games. Being or not being the Cook in one game has no "real" affect on his draw in the other game... mathematically speaking. However, it remains that this player would only have a 1/144 chance of being the cook in both games... those are odds I would bet against

before

it was revealed that he was the Cook in one of the games, and therefore they are odds that I

personally

would bet against even

after

it was revealed that he was the Cook in one of those games, when the mathematical odds become much larger that he is in fact the Cook in both games.

What it really came down to though was that I couldn't even be sure the Cook was in all the games. Given that even had I known the Cook was in all the games there still was less than a 10% chance that he would be the Cook in any given game, compounded by the fact that he already was the Cook in another game... well, I felt pretty safe in hammering him, even though I knew it could end up being the wrong decision.

Mathematically unsound though it might be, and as I said in the thread a Gambler's Fallacy to boot, it's one I'm willing to take, and one I feel will lynch correctly more often than not.

[al_kohaulec]

As an aside, it didn't matter if I was the cook or not, since it was pretty much guranteed either I or the other non-main character were lying and Yvette, and we had two lynches left to secure the lynch and the win.

[Battle Mage]

nice work guys. thats 2 games won, and only 1 left in progress.