Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

massive · Post Post #650 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:02 pm

In post 634, culted wrote:
In post 620, massive wrote:I'm not seeing Newman (you can probably guess why)
I really can't.

The main argument about Newman stems from his re-entry and return to the topic of Cloudkicker being force-replaced. Since I agree with the read on this, it's hard for me to look at Newman's re-entry as non-genuine. Since Grey's entire case on me was that I was "caught" following his "bad logic," and I believe that bad logic, I have to believe Newman believes that bad logic.

And I'm unconvinced by Grey's case.

Kairal · Post Post #651 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:04 pm

In post 616, massive wrote:You know on second thought that might be a bit overaggressive. In any case, you need to re-assess me Kairal, and you need to let go of this "not explaining your vote is anti-town" stance because you're going to find a LOT of players who won't and who will further demand that you follow them based solely on their reputation. I'm voting who I think is scum. End of story.

Alright so I've mentioned before that I'm a new player. This is sort of a frustrating position because it means I'm likely to be wrong about a lot of stuff but can't necessarily trust people telling me I'm wrong (since they may be scum). That said I am still willing to consider any advice I get. So work with me here.

I think not explaining votes is anti town. I think this because scum are lying and town are telling the truth. The best way to catch liars is to force them to generate a lot of content, and the best way to read town is again to see a lot of their content. It is harder to sustain lies long term. Therefore every player should be explaining their votes, and giving reads. If we don't do so we contribute to an atmosphere that makes the game easier for scum.

There are other benefits to explaining votes and reads too. Like imagine you are town and get nightkilled tonight. You're now a confirmed town to the rest of us and we can pick through your Iso to get what we now know are definitely town based reads. Except we'd get almost nothing from reading yours. We'd know you genuinely suspect MDS and AJ. That's it. We wouldn't even really know why.

If I get nightkilled though town will have a very good feel for where I am and what I was thinking. Doesn't mean they'll agree with it but at least they have a confirmed townie viewpoint on every player in the game

If I'm wrong about any of this feel free to explain why.

Anyway I appreciate you engaging with me and since Io still hasn't in hundreds of posts I'll move the vote there. For now at least.

VOTE: Io

Kairal · Post Post #652 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:09 pm

@ Io. You've ignored my every attempt to question you until now and I suspect you will continue to do so, but hey doesn't cost anything to try. Why did you vote AJ based on a post I hadn't made? To me this suggests you don't really care about reasoning through your AJ vote- the obvious explanation is that you already know you want to lynch him because you are scum and he is town. Thus you screwed up by citing a post that didn't exist and have refused to explain it because you can't.

Kairal · Post Post #653 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:06 pm

Anyway I looked through IamI's Iso and it seems fine. Nothing scummy that I can see. I also quite like how he initially calls our Grey for being opportunistic and then decides he's clearly town. That was basically how my Grey read evolved too so it feels pretty legit. He goes into my 'will reassess tomorrow list'.

I'm gonna reiterate that I actually think Newman is town. If he's scum he could easily jump onto Aj, massive, Io or Jin all of whom have received a fair bit of suspicion throughout the game and presumably can't all be scum. (Note that both Io and massive who are my top scum reads have given the AJ wagon a spin) Instead he votes for Mini using explicitly discredited logic. She's clearly not very likely to be lynched today. She floats near the top in most people's town reads. Surely scum would ignore her for today and Nk her?

Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.

That leaves me with Io, massive and Shadow for my potential lynches today. I'd like to hear from Shadow before we proceed I guess

I Am Innocent · Post Post #654 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:44 pm

I'm fine with Io as well.

Dierfire · Post Post #655 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:24 pm

I'm returning to Io first.

As a response to 439, I don't think that it's reasonable to read 378 as ambiguous about -Grey- (it seems a clear Town read to me). Also, even if the post were ambiguous, I think that a Town player should be more likely to ask Aj The Epic to clarify the read (rather than accuse him of "casting suspicion" and "throwing shade" in 428 and 431, which incidentally don't seem to be concerned about ambiguity).

Kairal already noted (577) that Io in 575 justifies her vote retroactively. Also of note is that the argument from (298) by Kairal that Io seems to find most compelling is that 122 is an attack on CloudKicker that would allow Aj The Epic to subtly push for that lynch...which does not seem so compelling to me that I would expect Io to have case a vote for it.

None of my concerns are addressed by 623. A fair summary of my concerns would be that Io is struggling to create suspicion of Aj The Epic for reasons that don't withstand scrutiny.

Dierfire · Post Post #656 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:24 pm

This would probably also be a good time to note that I'm continuing to read Aj The Epic as Town.

To add to the evidence, I'll say that 526 looks like a good attempt to address some discrepancies in 508 from Secret Agent Jin (Aj The Epic is paying attention to details such as timing of posts and whether Secret Agent Jin has a consistent framework for reading other players).

---
Speaking of Secret Agent Jin, I'm noting a concern here that he sometimes appears to be subtly encouraging conflicts between players whom I read as Town. In 508 there is no vote and no explanation of why Flubbernugget is incorrect, but rather he seems content to let MiniDeathStar do the lifting. Similarly in 596 Secret Agent Jin appears to be trying to restart a fight that had just concluded. I'm undecided about 547; it might fit a similar pattern if HellloooNewman is Town but I don't feel confident in that read the way that I do about Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and Aj The Epic. (I sort of agree with the substance of 635 by I Am Innocent in that I didn't like 544 by HellloooNewman, but I think that there were good reasons for a Town player to move a vote to the larger wagon, just not the ones given by HellloooNewman)

At this time I prefer voting for Io to voting for Secret Agent Jin.

Dierfire · Post Post #657 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:24 pm

I think that someone asked for reads on massive. As a general matter I find that his points make some sort of sense and are internally consistent. I don't find myself agreeing with many of the reads that he gives, but I don't know that I should cast a vote for that. I feel comfortable with most of the players on the massive wagon.

I guess that I'll think about it more, but I'm still liking my vote for Io at this point.

-Grey- · Post Post #658 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:37 pm

In post 653, Kairal wrote:Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.

He didn't. massive voted for adjacent reasoning. Newman piggybacked my trap logic.

HellloooNewman · Post Post #659 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:59 pm

I'm not paranoid. I'm not piggybacking anything.

Y'all are silly.

Kairal · Post Post #660 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:00 pm

In post 658, -Grey- wrote:
In post 653, Kairal wrote:Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.
He didn't. massive voted for adjacent reasoning. Newman piggybacked my trap logic.

This feels like a semantics debate waiting to happen. I'll sidestep it. The question I'm really getting at is: Was Newman's vote opportunistic? I don't think it was. By the time he voted Mini most of town had agreed that the mod confirmed mafia argument was a non-starter. If he were just voting for the easiest to lynch town why not jump on any of the other people I mentioned. There are too many for them all to be scumpartners so he passed over an easy mislynch on a town to argue for a fairly difficult lynch in Mini.

It just doesn't really make sense to choose the hard road rather than the easy road. More likely he just genuinely believed the mod confirm argument (even though I agree it's not a very compelling one).

Kairal · Post Post #661 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:03 pm

In post 659, HellloooNewman wrote:I'm not paranoid. I'm not piggybacking anything.

Y'all are silly.

If you are town please provide a really good argument for why we should lynch Mini or provide some reads on someone who might actually get lynched.

-Grey- · Post Post #662 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 4:59 pm

In post 660, Kairal wrote:
In post 658, -Grey- wrote:
In post 653, Kairal wrote:Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.
He didn't. massive voted for adjacent reasoning. Newman piggybacked my trap logic.
This feels like a semantics debate waiting to happen. I'll sidestep it. The question I'm really getting at is: Was Newman's vote opportunistic? I don't think it was. By the time he voted Mini most of town had agreed that the mod confirmed mafia argument was a non-starter. If he were just voting for the easiest to lynch town why not jump on any of the other people I mentioned. There are too many for them all to be scumpartners so he passed over an easy mislynch on a town to argue for a fairly difficult lynch in Mini.

It just doesn't really make sense to choose the hard road rather than the easy road. More likely he just genuinely believed the mod confirm argument (even though I agree it's not a very compelling one).

A vote doesn't have to be opportunistic to be scummy.

Scum often want to avoid being on lynches. Using terrible reasons and doubling down on the bad logic allows them to rationalize avoiding a lynchable player.

massive · Post Post #663 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:05 pm

My new favorite Mafia phrase is "adjacent reasoning."

-Grey- · Post Post #664 (ISO) » Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:06 pm

In post 663, massive wrote:My new favorite Mafia phrase is "adjacent reasoning."

You ain't seen nothing yet.

I Am Innocent · Post Post #665 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:06 am

In post 660, Kairal wrote:
In post 658, -Grey- wrote:
In post 653, Kairal wrote:Why fall for the same trick massive already did? I dunno it doesn't seem all that likely to be scum play to me.
He didn't. massive voted for adjacent reasoning. Newman piggybacked my trap logic.
This feels like a semantics debate waiting to happen. I'll sidestep it. The question I'm really getting at is: Was Newman's vote opportunistic? I don't think it was. By the time he voted Mini most of town had agreed that the mod confirmed mafia argument was a non-starter. If he were just voting for the easiest to lynch town why not jump on any of the other people I mentioned. There are too many for them all to be scumpartners so he passed over an easy mislynch on a town to argue for a fairly difficult lynch in Mini.

It just doesn't really make sense to choose the hard road rather than the easy road. More likely he just genuinely believed the mod confirm argument (even though I agree it's not a very compelling one).

Scum also like to tunnel and minimize scum reads to not help town when they do flip.

There was a game recently where scum was like 'I'm fine with either transcend or maria D1', and moved his vote between them D1 depending on who was the bigger wagon.

Newmans play/tunneling here feels very similar to me.

I Am Innocent · Post Post #666 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:12 am

ISO michaelsableheart in this game and ull see he goes back and forth between the Maria and transcend/Gigi slots:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

-Grey- · Post Post #667 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:22 am

In post 665, I Am Innocent wrote:Scum also like to tunnel and minimize scum reads to not help town when they do flip.

There was a game recently where scum was like 'I'm fine with either transcend or maria D1', and moved his vote between them D1 depending on who was the bigger wagon.

Newmans play/tunneling here feels very similar to me.

I have two players in willing to vote.

How is my play any different than what you're describing?

Kairal · Post Post #668 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:20 am

I think it's perfectly reasonable for town to narrow down their lynch choices. It is true that Newman isn't giving any reads on anyone else. I can see how that could be so that when we lynch him it will be difficult to find his partners. That's why I keep asking him to talk about other people. This is why I'm getting closer towards being ok with lynching him. He's still a distant third for now. Who knows though? Another few days without any substantial interactions aside from Mini and Cloud might just be enough to change my mind.

I Am Innocent · Post Post #669 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:05 am

In post 667, -Grey- wrote:
In post 665, I Am Innocent wrote:Scum also like to tunnel and minimize scum reads to not help town when they do flip.

There was a game recently where scum was like 'I'm fine with either transcend or maria D1', and moved his vote between them D1 depending on who was the bigger wagon.

Newmans play/tunneling here feels very similar to me.
I have two players in willing to vote.

How is my play any different than what you're describing?

Well you have expressed many reads/different votes today: Cloud, AJ, MDS (gimmick), massive, Newman, IO

Look at Newman's ISO. It is all Cloud/Shadow or MDS.

Shadow_step · Post Post #670 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:05 am

In post 166, Io wrote:In post 101, Elhabe21 wrote:
A little new at this but
VOTE: CloudKicker
Cuz you're standing out more than others

I want to kill you just for that logic.

OK caught up.
Firstly wanted to address the 144 since I disagree with that entirely. I get the vibe from Cloud that they are trying to convince people they are town from the town slip, but Cloud's logic as to why it's a town slip is pretty shaky yes town slip quite a lot, but really thinking there is 9 players isn't much of a slip if anything it's just you didn't read. Kai also mentioned Town are usually in a panic under pressure but I think that's more a personal thing, I for one always try to remain calm even if it's frustrating being ignored.

VOTE: AJ

I'm going to have to agree with Kai after reading their accusation.
I don't really agree with the SAJ wagon in general after hosting a game with him, he mostly just feels like a fairly easy mislynch to push.

Why are you sheeping someone else when you found Elhabe scummy there, enough for you to kill him?

I Am Innocent · Post Post #671 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:09 am

In post 659, HellloooNewman wrote:Y'all are silly.

If you were Newman and you were town, wouldn't you believe that scum is driving your wagon? Because calling the people wagoning him silly doesn't give me the vibe that he feels that way.

Nothing about him has felt town to me.

Shadow_step · Post Post #672 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:12 am

Concurring is literally defined as agreeing.
They are interchangeable synonyms.

-Grey- · Post Post #673 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:12 am

In post 669, I Am Innocent wrote:Well you have expressed many reads/different votes today: Cloud, AJ, MDS (gimmick), massive, Newman, IO

Look at Newman's ISO. It is all Cloud/Shadow or MDS.

Fair point.

Shadow_step · Post Post #674 (ISO) » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:12 am

I hate slow internet.

(too)