Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Adel]

With the amount of posting Oman does (14.5 posts/day average) why on earth doesn't he contribute more to this game? Seriously.

I want to lynch this lurker now. We have a little bit of a cushion, and there is a better than average chance that he is scum.

[Mr. Flay]

I would also like to say I disagree with Lynching Lurkers on Day Three of a mini.

That's nice. I disagree with allowing people to lurk for three whole days of a mini... you're still continuing the strategy of your predecessor, which is even weirder considering your usual posting patterns.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

[Mr. Flay]

interesting...so many people are saying things that they dont really mean...

Was this directed at me? I hope it's fair to say that I wasn't so much saying something I don't mean, as coming to a faulty conclusion. I stand by my notes, they just didn't show what I thought they did. So fair point to jerubbaal for noticing that.

[Jitsu]

Adel, why the rush? I don't like Oman's lurking any more than you do, but if he's going to keep it up, there's no need to rush to lynch him right now and end the day. If Oman continues to lurk and not post any useful content, I would support lynching him today, but several people have promised more content, and I want to hear it. I especially want to hear that detailed post you promised. Another question: You seemed to say that you thought you knew who one of the remaining scum is, but weren't sure about the other(s). Is Oman the one you are more sure of?

Flay, in response to post 911, where you said that you didn't have a good answer yet, do you have one now? If you simply came to an incorrect conclusion, what do you conclude about Setael now?

[Adel]

actually I do want to lynch him right away. the way I see it we can pretty much hit pause on this day. a little bit mor information should nail it, and there are enough intelligent and usefull players in this town that even another nk isn't going to but us back that far.

oman was not my prime suspect. I'll share that name either right before the hammer of Oman or right after it.

Oman: you can stop this process right now by posting. Otherwise I'm going steamroll this wagon right over you.

[Setael]

To put some weight behind Adel's threat, I will vote Oman if he doesn't start posting content. Gunslinger was one of my top suspects D1 and Oman hasn't given me any reason to change my mind about him.

@Jitsu - thanks for looking up that post.

vote: Abstract Actuary

[Jitsu]

actually I do want to lynch him right away. the way I see it we can pretty much hit pause on this day. a little bit mor information should nail it, and there are enough intelligent and usefull players in this town that even another nk isn't going to but us back that far.

Huh? We do have a bit of a cushion right now, but isn't it much, much more advantageous to get the additional information NOW, so we can use that to help interpret the lynch result and whatever happens tonight??

I will vote Oman today (meaning Day 3) as well if he does not start posting real content also, but I am NOT ready for the day to end yet. I disliked how quickly Day 2 ended, but I can understand it to a point because Korlash's lie turned out to be pretty damning. I do not see a similar compelling reason to end Day 3 so quickly.

I do not see why it is a good idea to "hit pause on this day" and lynch Oman right now. I can think of at least one scenario where that does not work out well: if Oman gets lynched and comes up town and you get NKed, then the town has lost a lot of information it could have had otherwise. You may not have time to share information after the hammer if the thread gets locked as quickly as it did at the end of D2.

If you are going to "steamroll this wagon right over" Oman today for lurking, then I want to hear your detailed post

before

he is hammered.[/b]

[Adel]

I'll make sure to get the information out. How about a vote on Oman to amp up the pressure a little?

[Jitsu]

I'll make sure to get the information out. How about a vote on Oman to amp up the pressure a little?

Very well. I will hold you to that.

I'm not sure I want him at L-2 just yet, as a scum vote would then force him to claim. I want some more time to reread and look over some things first.

I offer you a compromise.

Oman has two votes on him (you, Flay) and promises of two more (Setael, yours truly) if he doesn't start talking. That should be enough. If it isn't, I will put a pressure vote on him tomorrow night (real time).

In addition, I will

FoS: Oman

.

[Adel]

fair enough.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 919

Oman (2):

Adel, Mr. Flay

jerubbaal (1):

Abstract Actuary

Abstract Actuary (1):

Setael

Not Voting (5):

jerubbaal, curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym, Jitsu, Oman

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

[jerubbaal]

My only completed game so far was with Oman, and this behavior seems very out of character for him. I don't see why Lynch All Lurkers should be any different day 3 than day 1. Seems like a better rule, if anything. I'll add the third vote since Jitsu seems unwilling.

Vote: Oman

Seriously Jitsu, it almost seems that you're opposed to lynching. More talk usually benefits the town, but paralysis does not. That FoS is a joke.

Flay's action continues to confuse me some. I am glad that he seems to be acting on his stance against lurkers, but he hasn't clarified a lot of stuff, notably what was wrong with the Set wagon. He acknowledges this, though, and I'm happy to wait for an answer for the time being.

Set, any reason behind voting AA?

Adel, I don't think lynching Oman is so much putting the day on pause. I agree with lynching him if he continues not to post, but the scenario will likely change between today and tomorrow. Saying that we're just pausing the day seems like a misnomer that deemphasizes the importance of a lynch. I agree with the course of action though.

[curiouskarmadog]

and what kind of post from Oman will warrant everyone's unvote? Posting and providing content are two different things...I will assume that the vote on Oman is to get him to provide content..

please (for the ones currently voting for Oman or pledging to vote if he doesnt post) tell me what your definition of "content" is.

I think it is important we get that out now...also Oman is at -2....I dont think we should proceed with lynching until Oman at least gets a prod.
.

[Oman]

With the amount of posting Oman does (14.5 posts/day average) why on earth doesn't he contribute more to this game? Seriously.

I knew I'd get a bad meta.

Okay, well, I was going to lurk in protest, because I think this wagon is lame in D3. But then I realised Gunslinger was pretty close to this too.

One thing I don't like about Adel (pushing this got me interested, as I don't remember Adel being a Lurker-hater).

Adel seemed to go on the Korlash wagon with preknowledge.

Adel puts the vote down straight away, after only skimming the thread.

nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.

this is the scummiest post I've read so far, by any player. I'm caught up through #449. Korlash is scum, and knows who isn't scum. He didn't want to push the wagon on Anata- he wanted to be on the record warning against it. Anata Setael is therefor is an innocent.

This was in response to a large post by Korlash about the Anata wagon, I believe. Korlash was against it. Adel takes this to mean that Setael MUST be innocent, which is rediculous as it makes sense to me that a mafia member would defend a scumbuddy.

you have not had a scum-powered wagon on you today.

This is interesting as a conclusionary point.

I've explained my case against you.

Unfortunatly, its a horrible case.

I calculated the following odds based upon past games I've played in or read:

Korlash's chance of being Town-Aligned: ~28%
If Korlash is Town-Aligned, the chance of him being a powerrole: ~15%

These are great numbers for a Day 1 lynch candidate! About the lowest I've ever seen.

This is rediculous. She comes to conclusions based on her own assumptions. ((I hope everyone has seen that Scrubs episode.)) That powerroles wouldn't act that way, that he is spamming etc. THIS IS KORLASH, first off, secondly, I know he was mafia, but I wouldn't have lynched him on your case.

FoS Jerrrubal ,FoS Miztef

I wouldn't be surprised if one of these was a scumbuddy with Adel and Korlash

instead of sharing my true reasons and cases, I shared my data instead.

Should you trust my models? of course not. That is why I've provided additional, more traditional, cases against him.

Noting that these two contradict, but moving on. You're traditional cases are lame. And your models don't show me any reason Korlash is scum.

The presence of a mafia roleblocker suggests that we have both a cop and a doc in our town.

Not scummy, but well done, you just figured out a mini normal setup that are pretty much all the same.

I encourage to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are listed games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

Well done, a perfect example of Appeal to Authority.

If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...

Scum, expecting to die by lynch, attempts to connect himself to a towie, to cast some amount of later suspicion on that townie.

You know, I came to the same conclusion as Korlash before I saw that post.

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later,

This is horrible, and I hate you for it. Okay, I'm over it now, but I'm still not happy you did it.

Mr. Flay writes, "If I had known you were going to do that again" could also be read as "if I knew that I ws going to be scum against you where you pulled out more of your townie tricks"...

This is stupid.

he was creating a strawman argument to undermine the use of statistics as evidence. it was not a sincere or earnest case

You created a strawman argument to undermine Setael's credibility.

[To Mr. Flay]show us your cards.

I'm just using the cipher to "hold my cards close to my chest"

Double standard much?

Adel, may I ask you thoughts on Jerrubal? You're voting Setael when you said Jerrubal was Korlash's scumbuddy.

Vote Adel

[Oman]

and what kind of post from Oman will warrant everyone's unvote? Posting and providing content are two different things...I will assume that the vote on Oman is to get him to provide content..

Hopefully that will.

Also on Adel, Adel has been on Korlash and Setael wagons.

Setael is Adel's current wagon actually.

"But wait Oman, didn't Adel earlier say Jerrubbal was the scumzor?" Yes, and I'll tell you what else:

Anata

Setael is therefor is an innocent.

Vote Adel

[Jitsu]

My only completed game so far was with Oman, and this behavior seems very out of character for him. I don't see why Lynch All Lurkers should be any different day 3 than day 1. Seems like a better rule, if anything. I'll add the third vote since Jitsu seems unwilling.

Seriously Jitsu, it almost seems that you're opposed to lynching. More talk usually benefits the town, but paralysis does not. That FoS is a joke.

I'm not opposed to lynching. I'm opposed to ending the day quickly. I will admit that I was being pretty cautious there for an L-2 vote, but I did say that I would cast the vote tomorrow night. Saying that I seem unwilling to vote because I wanted to wait a day seems just a little unfair.

I confess to wanting to slow the wagon down a bit to be more sure that we can hear from the others that have promised content and so I can reread some more. I am more than happy to vote for Oman if he doesn't stop lurking -- I have expressed my suspicion of Gunslinger for a long time now and that hasn't changed since Oman has arrived.

And the FoS was not intended to be a joke. Even though I did not vote right away, I wanted to express my desire for Oman to post in a way stronger than just "I'm going to vote for you if you don't post some content". Plus, with it in bold, it's harder for Oman to say he didn't see it.

There has been a lot of suspicions and finger pointing going around today and I am still trying to sort some of it out. I know I've been pretty cautious but I am honestly doing what I think is best for the town.

Two things I'm still looking into are Flay's stated case and vote on AA and AA's vote on you.

[Jitsu]

Crap, I just saw that Oman posted while I was writing. I'll read it over and post later tonight.

For now though, I noticed something else on my reread. In post 895, I noticed that Flay said:

Day One, it is almost impossible to find a truly scummy scum to lynch. Therefore you're generally better off eliminating someone who is not going to be an asset to the game. You gain information about who is willing to lynch this person, correlate that with the lynchee's actual alignment, and strengthen the town's position for eventual endgame. Korlash meets all of those criteria, independent of whether or not the Mafia RB thing happened to be an actual lie or not (have you looked at his death scene, by chance?)

It dawned on me what Flay as talking about here. Flay, you are implying above that this may be a limited reveal game, are you not? The mafia would already know if that were true, so I think it is safe to say it here.

[Jitsu]

@Oman:

I don't think lurking is an appropriate response to a bad meta. Lurking and then stating that you were going to protest it by lurking some more hardly seems like it's helping the town.

I'm simply going to refer to post 938 as the Great (Quote) Wall of China, or the GQWoC for short.

On an intitial read, you might have a point or two in there somewhere, but overall I wasn't terribly impressed. I'll reread, but a lot of it seems to be a rehash of existing arguments.

At this point though, I'm more interested in your opinions and impressions of the remaining players, especially about the events of Day 3. It's painfully obvious you don't like Adel, but what about everyone else?

[Jitsu]

@Oman

Um, did you not realize that Adel is voting YOU right now?

And how exactly did Adel create a strawman argument to undermine Setael's credibility?

[Adel]

actually, that meets my criteria for content pretty well

unvote

Oman: I would love to hear your thoughts on the pother players as well, of course, but would you mind telling us what kept you from posting for so long?

[Oman]

Adel: Laziness, its a 39 page game. I don't want to go through it multiple times, so I procrastinated.

Um, did you not realize that Adel is voting YOU right now?

Yeah but it was a pressure wagon, so I didn't count it.

And how exactly did Adel create a strawman argument to undermine Setael's credibility?

I thought I posted it. Oh well:

Ah, found it. It was during the whole "town RB?" thing. Where Adel got into Sateal about town aligned roleblockers etc.

Acutally, now that I consider it, strawman isn't the right word, but Adel was arguing semantics whilst not touching the bigger picture.

[Mr. Flay]

In post 895, I noticed that Flay said:

Day One, it is almost impossible to find a truly scummy scum to lynch. Therefore you're generally better off eliminating someone who is not going to be an asset to the game. You gain information about who is willing to lynch this person, correlate that with the lynchee's actual alignment, and strengthen the town's position for eventual endgame. Korlash meets all of those criteria, independent of whether or not the Mafia RB thing happened to be an actual lie or not (have you looked at his death scene, by chance?)

It dawned on me what Flay as talking about here. Flay, you are implying above that this may be a limited reveal game, are you not? The mafia would already know if that were true, so I think it is safe to say it here.

It's possible. It's slightly more likely in my mind that Korlash was not actually a Mafia Roleblocker (which would make us lynching him for being a liar all the more amusing/ironic). It could be that the Mafia in general has a Roleblock ability as well as their kill ability, or that they don't really have one at all. There's just no

evidence

at present that Korlash was the MRB.

As for the case on Anata/Setael, it is still possible that she is Korlash's scum-buddy, and Korlash's apparent defense and distancing was just what it appeared to be. Since I like most of the people who joined on her wagon, I backed off my 'this wagon built too fast', but I still don't like AA's behavior in general this game. Right now, I'm more inclined to believe Oman is the lynch for today. It's still early though...

[Sudo_Nym]

Really, Flay? Because I kinda like Oman; but then lurking annoys me less in general than for other players, apparantly. The major point against Oman is that he waited for so long in the day until he was called out to say anything, which sounds similar to lurking I admit, but seems fundamentally different to me somehow.

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, I'll bite: how does it seem different to you?

Um, did you not realize that Adel is voting YOU right now?

Yeah but it was a pressure wagon, so I didn't count it.

Interesting. Why don't you feel pressured?

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 948

Oman (2):

Mr. Flay, jerubbaal

jerubbaal (1):

Abstract Actuary

Abstract Actuary (1):

Setael

Adel (1):

Oman

Not Voting (4):

curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym, Jitsu, Adel

9 alive, 5 will lynch.