Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)

[davesaz]

VOTE: Vifam

[davesaz]

3 cards here. Not much in the way of reads. If you're town please don't claim any false information, it will screw with town who solve the game using logic. If you have a choice between false/misleading info and no info, go with the no info. Scum please go ahead and lie, ty.

[davesaz]

In this game with the roles coming and going with the cards, there are no traditional claims. At most people can claim cards they have and why.
I'm wary of using the term consolidate, but we need voting patterns in this game more than most.

[davesaz]

I have two ways of setup specing people into scum roles for this setup. At this point I don't think I'll reveal the who or why on that method of PoEing scum other than to say it works for me in the PyP X/Y open setup which works very similar to this one. It's by no means infallible but it does identify more likely candidates.

I find it interesting that none of the people I'd setup spec into one of the scum roles using method 1 are being wagoned. I haven't really looked at method 2 other than one person I'd normally identify for that role is acting pretty townie.

Pedit: @rb: you can be more idiotic if you try.

[davesaz]

davesaz how is ur best scumread right now vifam like wowww

and why are u petitioning for big wagons and vanity voting in the meantime?

someone dayvig this slot my frontal lobes are offended

You've forgotten that RVS is a thing?

Do you have frontal lobes? By your posting it's so hard to tell.
Oh yeah, that's right. Some people sling shit and some actually think. I'm the type who actually thinks.

Pedit: No, there's a thing with the numbers which sorts sets of people into (1 scum in this set). I've never seen more than one. It's only a rough way to pigeonhole because sometimes there are zero.

[davesaz]

RB, I've only actually been playing for an hour.

Titus, what do you mean by an example?

[davesaz]

but this set-up is totally different because there's two of each card, so it's actually plausible that scum deliberately picked identical draft numbers... like i'm pretty low in the draft and i'm surprised to have gotten the cards i did.

Picking duplicate numbers puts both lower in the draft. Scum can (and should) avoid picking dups between themselves but they can't avoid duping with someone else. If they don't avoid dups among themselves, they risk picking trips or quads and ending up last. That said, existence of dups is

not

the basis of my method. I only want to make sure there isn't too much focus on this fallacy (that dups matter) either way.

In the meantime, the numeric analysis is only useful in shrinking the suspect list to allow a narrower focus, which in a larger game is even more important. The real work is focusing on those people which I've just started doing.

[davesaz]

RB, I've only actually been playing for an hour.

Titus, what do you mean by an example?

You say you use two methods of setup spec to put players into roles.

Method A: I do xyz to determine abc.

Correction: Where I said "scum roles" I mean alignments. I realize now that it could be interpreted as predicting which cards are bid for which is not the case here.

One scum is likely in the outlier numbers. Scum will huddle and realize that picking an outlandish number guarantees a pick in the top quarter of the list or so, where individual town are less likely to come up with that conclusion. For this game it's any number chosen greater than 23. Two of those picks are

less

indicative of the rest because they have a clear basis as not being random -- Titus and kraska. Titus's pick is clearly based on the reference to Math in the signup thread, and kraska's is userid based. By comparison I might have thought to pick 55 (age) or 61 (birth year) if I hadn't been trying to be the lowest unique number. BTW I picked the lowest prime greater than 10 because I thought that fewer people would think of it.

If I don't find any scummy behavior in the outliers, I'll move on to another indicator.

[davesaz]

Ugh, multiple images like that is not cool.

[davesaz]

So do I have the roles I won to use?

Check if you got a Queen or Clubs.

Okay, so that's my role?

@Drone, McMenno, Creature - OMG rb knows I'm scum, I'm fucked!

Any reason why McMenno rather than someone else who has done nothing?

Because it's McMeno and he's always scum! :<... Even when he's not.

VOTE: Vedith
Fake "didn't read the setup" posting, jokingly claiming scum, and the opportunism to thought ratio is way up there.

[davesaz]

I could be wrong on kraska. Too early to have lots of town reads.

[davesaz]

You're welcome to join me on Vedith.

[davesaz]

@Vecna, when I'm town and people are posting things that show they don't understand the mechanics or the strategy implied by those mechanics, I correct them. It's what I do. Just because something is obvious to you does not make it obvious to everyone.

In this case I was sleeping and thus immune to seeing the last ~6 pages of mindless drivel in real-time, but I regret having to wade through that shit without a warning. If y'all are gonna do that gimme some warning to put my boots on first.

@Magna, you're up for saying what the missing card is.

[davesaz]

Cards don't predict alignment, they only help narrow the pool. If someone acts scummy then it should supercede the cards.
The game also has deck altering mechanics, so a card can be manipulated to never become active.

[davesaz]

What's Vedith doing that's town?

[davesaz]

Who is Vedith voting, and why?
Given answers to 1st question, why are y'all not voting Vedith?

[davesaz]

I'm voting McScumbag because he's scum.

You've said nothing about the why, and very little about anything else.

[davesaz]

So do I have the roles I won to use?

Check if you got a Queen or Clubs.

Okay, so that's my role?

@Drone, McMenno, Creature - OMG rb knows I'm scum, I'm fucked!

Any reason why McMenno rather than someone else who has done nothing?

Because it's McMeno and he's always scum! :<... Even when he's not.

VOTE: Vedith
Fake "didn't read the setup" posting, jokingly claiming scum, and the opportunism to thought ratio is way up there.

[davesaz]

I'm voting McScumbag because he's scum.

You've said nothing about the why, and very little about anything else.

Vexith was the same in frozens game, why is his play scummy to you here but not there

More content in Bebop. It's subtle but there is a difference.

[davesaz]

Vedith

(1) -

davesaz

Plz explain how this primo scumhunting can be called lurking?

[davesaz]

There are duplicate colors in that rainbow btw. And wayyyyy too many categories.

[davesaz]

Let's just say my avi is representative of RL.
In order to think, there must be something to think about.
Out of almost 1100 posts, maybe 50 meet that definition.

[davesaz]

Let's just say my avi is representative of RL.
In order to think, there must be something to think about.
Out of almost 1100 posts, maybe 50 meet that definition.

Like, how can you guys not scumread shit like this?

Let's flip that. Someone's

every

post is

brutally

honest. How can you scumread it?
I get caught as scum because I can't lie effectively.

[davesaz]

Let's just say my avi is representative of RL.
In order to think, there must be something to think about.
Out of almost 1100 posts, maybe 50 meet that definition.

Like, how can you guys not scumread shit like this?

Let's flip that. Someone's

every

post is

brutally

honest. How can you scumread it?
I get caught as scum because I can't lie effectively.

Is that a lie?

Nope. I'm unable to make up a fake scumread. I'm even unable to make up a fake townread.
It's the #1 reason I can't be a salesman.

Pedit: Titus is up for missing card.

Pedit2: I gave 3 reasons in the one post.

[davesaz]

I'm voting McScumbag because he's scum.

You've said nothing about the why, and very little about anything else.

You can take this as a question.

[davesaz]

6 - rb
9 - Creature
14 - Jackel98
26 - MariaR
42 - Vedith
77 - kraska77
3141592653 - Titus

tbh I think we should hunt scum here.

So, first step, do you explicitly TR anyone in this list?

[davesaz]

6 - rb - Town
9 - Creature - Nulltown
14 - Jackel98 - Nullscumlurker
26 - MariaR - Weak town
42 - Vedith - Scum
77 - kraska77 - Weak scum
3141592653 - Titus - Town
4 - MagnaofIllusion - Null leaning scum
4 - Transcend - Weak town
5 - gerryoat - Null leaning town
5 - Fishythefish - Null
11 - davesaz - Town
11 - Kison - Null leaning scum
13 - gigabyteTroubadour - Weak town
13 - Maxous - Null
17 - drealmerz7 - Undecided
17 - Drone - Null
2 - Vecna - Weak town
2 - Dunnstral - Null
2 - SpyreX - Null
12 - McMenno - Null leaning scum
12 - Lil Uzi Vert - Weak town
12 - Vifam - Null leaning town

Some of the nulls have not said enough, others have posts but I haven't focused there enough to read.

[davesaz]

1106
Titus is up.

[davesaz]

Vedith just confirmed himself as town is what just happened.

I'll look again, but what are you trying to say?

[davesaz]

He claimed a card and thats nice but not rly meaningful

Nothing about the card itself, using it, or claiming it is alignment indicative. Either alignment could benefit from knowing next trump, and either could hope to get "town cred" by claiming it.

Not to mention, THE TRUMP DID NOT CHANGE, and the card which was used has another useful ability which is now unavailable to the player who used it for this phase. This was not a rig, it was a flip.

Not sure how to respond to the Jackel wagon as I skipped all of that trying to get past all the pedits. And I'm headed out to work so a lack of further post from me is meaningless.

[davesaz]

I'm just claiming my cards now because I can't be arsed to deal with rb being bad alllllllllll day.

I have Spades 8, Spades 2, Clubs Jack.
Tomorrow, I'm a hated, beloved Gov'.
Originally I was sure I chose Spades 2 and 3 so I messaged the mod about my Spade PT, then when checking the sent items, I actually chose Spade 8, not 3.
Keep me alive, scum are forced to kill me or have no kill tomorrow night.

Lets move on.

So you say you're town and holding Jack of Clubs which is active at the time, and it's early game. If you are up for lynch, what's the right move to increase odds that town wins?

[davesaz]

Not a town mindset.

[davesaz]

Eh, I misread and didn't see the "none".

[davesaz]

Someone who isn't kraska gimme the case on Transcend. I ask this mainly because it's such a pain to dig back through all those pages.

Pedit: contesting what?

[davesaz]

case is 1333 by the way

I was looking more for a case which is independent of kraska.

[davesaz]

Intent

[davesaz]

The kill on Creature does tell us something. Either scum has the other 6 of clubs OR scum felt safe enough to shoot above me with two know bulletproofs or desperate enough.

With spades trump last night, how is this relevant?

[davesaz]

yes
but flipping town or scum could make a big difference to how i interpret votes

Making a show about not knowing how the flip is going to go.

Transcend is high vig priority regardless of what's happening.

fairly surprised by Creature kill but maybe i haven't been paying attention

And surprise at the kill choice.

I think I'll go verify Titus's point that Creature never wanted her lynched.

Pedit: OK, so Creature did at one point have her on his list. Still why point to just two players when the earlier list from Creature had so many more.

[davesaz]

I've been reading "moi" as French for "me" this whole game, not Magna.

[davesaz]

No idea what people see in Transcend. I see his actions as much more likely to be town.
LUV isn't someone I know how to read yet. I'm open to being swayed on that wagon but someone would need to put in effort to explain.
For me, the wagons most likely to be on scum are Jackel and Maxous. Of the people on those wagons, I like the composition of Jackel's wagon better.

VOTE: Jackel98

I do see Maxous's point on milkshake, but it needs more development IMO.
Other scumreads are McMenno, Vedith.

[davesaz]

VOTE: MariaR

Trying to fake reasons that RB wasn't a scumkill. There's a big difference between being uninformed and trying to look like uninformed, this is the latter.

[davesaz]

VOTE: MariaR

Trying to fake reasons that RB wasn't a scumkill. There's a big difference between being uninformed and trying to look like uninformed, this is the latter.

That's absurb. This vote is terrible.

Put Titus down as scum too, after I flip town.

[davesaz]

If you're town, you think about the game, read what cards are in play, and know what the hell is going on.

[davesaz]

If you're town, you think about the game, read what cards are in play, and know what the hell is going on.

If you're scum, you also think about the game, read what cards are in play, and know what the hell is going on - and pretending you don't would be weird. So, either way, Maria's playstyle is very different from yours and mine. Why do you think this is MariaScum faking not reading the rules, rather than MariaTown actually not reading the rules?

Town thinking that obvtown rb would be vigged is beyond comprehension. I can't see town anyone making that mistake.
What makes me think she's scum is that she went back to the well to try to find

another

reason it's not a scum kill. Clearly trying to plant seeds of doubt on the conversation about who as scum would need to kill rb.

[davesaz]

Oh btw so I'm conf town now right?

I can prodge and shitpost and not get lynched yeah?

I for one think you should not. Sorry but the fun can wait, there are scum to catch.

[davesaz]

He just annoys me in general. 2658, most recently.

What about it? I will flip town, and the Titus post I was replying to is scummy.
My Maria read is quite real. I do think she was faking, and the "gee I really thought it was a vig" post didn't help.

[davesaz]

I am not currently seeing what I'd expect if Titus were scum.

[davesaz]

Max looks pretty town to me, probing in a lot of different places and none of them seem speculative to me.

[davesaz]

Vecna, I wrote 2874 in a very precise way. If you think hard enough you may realize that "town meta" and "lack of scum meta" are two completely different things.

[davesaz]

Jackel, who would you venge and why?

[davesaz]

Titus, the deck rigging ability is not currently active.

[davesaz]

Have we played before? If not, please listen to the people who have.

[davesaz]

You can't use the rig card to rig.

[davesaz]

Gov is not active unless a jack is trump.

[davesaz]

I'm hesitant to answer because some people don't like displays of logic but...
For it to be possible the other Jc would need to be trump, and then there would be no lynch so the vengeful would not activate.

[davesaz]

EBWOP no lynch if the gov was activated. (think it's optional...) So the choice would be between being lynched and venge, or no lynch.

[davesaz]

If were gonna speedbandwagon new stuff, how about Davesaz?

VOTE: Davesaz

Why?

Because for someone that is so aware of all the ins and outs of the setup he is way too quiet

Town has a vested interest in keeping the people who can logic the game in the 2nd half alive during the first half.
If you're town, you're trying to lose. If you're scum, you're absolutely correct that I'm one of the players who can nail you if you let me.

My earlier weak town on Maria evolved to weak scum over the playing dumb angle.
Still SR Vedith, and was trying to figure out if Jackel is town vengeful or scum trying to use it as a threat to save himself.

[davesaz]

Not a clue what that means.

[davesaz]

Im sure you can logic your way to the answer

Given what you posted had no meaning, no.

[davesaz]

Dave is nowhere near the too scummy to be scum play that dunn/gerry/menno etc are doing.

He's actually trying to appear town but failing and just feels scummy as a politician

Your problem is that you can't believe an honest person can be town.
You're not alone, sadly. Too many people assume there has to be an ulterior motive.

[davesaz]

Eh?
Pedit: Eh? Everything I'm saying

is

genuine. This is the real me not some internet persona, but I'm open to getting help understanding why others don't see it that way.

[davesaz]

I took Maxous's post to be aimed at me, not you.

[davesaz]

Do me a favor and read it please. It's only 24 posts, and I'd be interested in your opinion.

[davesaz]

VOTE: jackel

bad

It would seriously help me read you if you'd post a little bit more than one-liner reaction posts.

[davesaz]

I think I've settled on Jackel being scum trying to use the threat of vengeful to stave off a lynch.

[davesaz]

Spoiler:

Funny, I say I would move to a larger wagon, and the lil wagon disperses. Noted.

If we are lynching based off bad wagon, it would be Vedith not Uzi wagoned though.

RB, is there any reason to townread Maxous and assume townbeard?

It's midnight and I make my daily rounds. Sue me.

Funny, I say I would move to a larger wagon, and the lil wagon disperses. Noted.

What do you read into that? While I don't know the motivations of anyone else on the wagon, I think these are likely entirely unrelated.

I dunno yet, but I document and observe patterns. The Uzi/Kison link is still rather huge in my mind. More data (read: flips) will make that more useful.

Also if Vecna is scum I bet Titus is also

Comments like this make me want to strangle you Bart.

I -might- be coming around on my read on Titus. I really liked post 1/2/4 that I quoted here and think it sounds rather towny. Post 3 sounds somewhat more scummy to me again, but maybe its just because it sounds so vague and I dont really see it / or what she means.

I dont like most of her reads per se (duh she scumreads me), and I really dont see Vedith being scum here. Titus, can you go into a bit more details why you see connections between Kison/LUV? I might be willing to test this one theory since so many people have been scumreading LUV.

I meant you never responded to this post (which came after your post where you quoted all their posts). You mightve noticed that pretty much noone understood your case against them.

Ok, reading backwards and starting Kison/Luv documentation. As a bonus, it disproves effort. I will also have VCs so you can follow along.

And then post 2637 .

Do not lie.

Link fail.
You call posting a spoiler with a bunch of VC's a VCA?
Protip: You can edit out the images and colorize the votes to make your point. You could also comment along the way. A one liner after several hundred lines of spoilered quote that nobody in their right mind is actually going to look at is not analysis.

[davesaz]

The IC aspect of the 2h won't even be active, that's a suit thing. It's entirely possible, in fact likely, that nobody picked that card, though the 1/4 chance of hearts trump outweighs the 1/13 chance of twos. Not even sure how an "IC" would work if scum alignment picked the card... If mod confirmed a scum as IC it would be bastard, wouldn't it?

Pretty sure we have a mafia kill disable active from someone holding a 2s, and it lasts for the whole kill cycle which is day and night.
Fairly unlikely that scum would have activated that on purpose. If they've been paying attention they know someone has claimed it, so the action which set the 2c as top of deck seems likely to have been town. Not guaranteed, scum could have peeked if they're holding the appropriate card for that, and decided they'd be in more danger with another trump, but very unlikely given the kill disable.

Card analysis aside, maybe we can get something from the intersection of the town wagons and/or who they were counters for. It's much weaker to do that than VCA with a scum flipped, but better than nothing.

It's entirely possible that Jackel didn't try to venge at all. At first I thought the mod might leave the thread open until that choice was made, but in retrospect locking was definitely the right thing to do. We don't know if there was a bulletproof or if it was just a no-target. Bummer that we didn't get a better hint of what he was going to do.

I'm still thinking MariaR is likely to be scum. My Vedith scumread is pretty much gone but I need to reread to determine if it should be a null or town.
On Titus I still have a "not seeing the scumtell". Which is not to say I'm sold on town there.

[davesaz]

Instead of pedit, I'll respond to the last 5-6 posts separately.
Mafia did their kill during day 2. No faction kill night 2.

[davesaz]

I don't think it's obvious where the top of deck card came from.
I don't agree with revealing those cards based on speculation that Jackel actually took a shot.
He could have said "no shot" which would have ended the time immediately.

[davesaz]

On Titus I still have a "not seeing the scumtell". Which is not to say I'm sold on town there.

Do you think scum Titus would pick the King of Diamonds?

If she were scum, she could easily fakeclaim Kd in order to look town. The card would have to show up twice in other places to disprove that type of claim.

[davesaz]

Grr, there are some people who don't like game theory 101 lectures, but if you're going to insist then I'll oblige.

Situation matters, a lot. Suppose you have a game with very few PRs. If there is someone who town is clearly better off without, then you go ahead and risk hitting town. If you have a highly likely scum read you take the shot at them. But you don't screw town over by shooting someone you think is town. And you don't take a wild shot if you don't really have any strong reads.

This game is a lot more like role madness. It's actively bad for town to take a vig or venge shot unless you're really sure it benefits town. You have a

100% chance of hitting a PR

in this game. (*) Well, it's more like a n-shot random phase JOAT, but still everyone is a PR of some sort...

I do not think we should assume anything about Jackel's shot, and I'm going to take a very dim view of anyone trying to push that angle.

Pedit: why do you want to hear from McMenno?

[davesaz]

That's not possible either.
Dunn is trying to manufacture a mislynch candidate. He's scum.

[davesaz]

A 3c was trumps, and someone else has recently claimed to have one. There can't be another one out there.

[davesaz]

It tells us how many were picked, but that's the extent of the usefulness.

[davesaz]

I will repeat in big bold letters since y'all seem to have trouble seeing it.

You can't use the lack of a vengekill to scumhunt. Do it the normal way.

If you think someone is scum by their actions that's fine, but the lack of a death proves nothing.

Spoiler: btw

I haven't lost that scumread on MariaR, but I want to avoid having town rush into a potentially bad decision without thinking about it first! We may come to the same conclusion for the right reasons and that I'm totally fine with.

[davesaz]

I'm more than a little concerned that scum may choose to jettison their least popular teammate in a big flashy "ooh we caught them" moment in order to get some cred they don't deserve.
Pedit: that doesn't prevent a 2nd card from existing, not to mention he's "clear" only by preponderance of evidence.

[davesaz]

I'm more than a little concerned that scum may choose to jettison their least popular teammate in a big flashy "ooh we caught them" moment in order to get some cred they don't deserve.

What are you talking about?

Hmm, who do I think is trying to get credit for finding scum using bad logic? Who could that be?

[davesaz]

Why wouldn't it stop all roles? Don't forget that RB can also stop mafia kills that aren't strongman...

[davesaz]

This is why I want to scumhunt based on posting and not on card speculation.

[davesaz]

davesaz ignoring the fact that we're lynching maria for her posting and not her cards and continues going on about that.

The problem I'm seeing is that you're

continuing to discuss the cards

.
Posting

is

the reason I scumread Maria. How can you think I'm ignoring posting?

[davesaz]

I think I might have been the

very first person

to vote Maria,

for her posting

. I'm a little too tired atm to look that up and prove it given it's 2am.

[davesaz]

We will not use cards to decide the lynch.

[davesaz]

OH

Nobody died because maria is the mafia gov and got shot at, and that card also has bulletproof.

She has the jack of clovers

It's entirely possible that Jackel didn't try to venge at all.

Unlikely.

Didn't think the thread stayed up for 24 hours, which was his time

Maria is our kill guys.

Either one of them is hiding the other 3 of clubs or more likely a scum buddy protected them with the other ace of club

Or the jack of clubs.

He could have said "no shot" which would have ended the time immediately.

And he'd do that why?

I meant jackel's venge kill

Because that card has bulletproof

Guess she's the 3 of spades instead

if it was a scum doc it was probably on maria.

Ahem, looks like a shitload of posts about marias cards. And cards relating to the venge. You only claimed posting was the reason after I got into your shit about it. Go ahead and quote yourself yesterday saying anything substantial. Still does not change what you tried to do today.

[davesaz]

MariaR tried to fake not knowing rb was a scum kill. That kind of a post is a nervous scum reaction that I've seen before from multiple players. I've even slipped and done it myself in the past. Secondly that kind of (apparently clueless) question can elicit the vig(s) to disclaim the kill thus revealing themselves. I don't buy her reaction to being called on this tell. Jackel was a counter to her wagon. For today's vote she picked the only person other than her with a vote, and she didn't give a reason.

Titus, if you really think she's town maybe you should remind us why you think that. Also last I heard your scumpool included me, and we've played enough times together that you should easily know that I'm town.

[davesaz]

Nobody is really that clueless about setup. You say you didn't know it was a scum shot but it is impossible to believe that.

[davesaz]

Did you jump from the day start post to the end without reading what was in between?

[davesaz]

I thought the same thing earlier when Titus was pushing on Kison.

[davesaz]

I think it's extremely unlikely that Titus and MariaR are both scum. I don't think that Titus would go so far out there trying to protect a buddy.
Funny, I don't remember seeing anyone say it's wk though, which on retrospect may be a little odd.

Titus, you said you didn't like the scummy people voting / pushing MariaR. Have you said which ones you think are scummy besides Kison?

[davesaz]

I was miller during the night phase.

Very happy to see that I was right about Titus. Not so happy about her demise. Not so sure that a claimed vig on her is necessarily town.
Cards which would immediately activate can't be revived. I did not pay attention to whether any of the suggested cards fit that description.

[davesaz]

also a reminder that effort does not indicate alignment

The motivation behind what effort is there can be AI. Much more AI than the amount of effort.

[davesaz]

Would consider lynching: AA9, gerryoat, davesaz, Kison, LUV, TWIE, McMenno. Pleasantly small pool, actually.

@giga: you have dave, Kison and TWIE of those as probtown. Why?

Answering one of these for myself: dave on Maria doesn't look very likely bussing. He definitely increased the chances of Maria's lynch substantially.

I'm kinda annoyed with myself that I didn't just vote her anyway despite the faulty reasons others were voting her.
I wanted that lynch to go slower so that we could get more info to read associations from, but I thought my scumread d2 was pretty good.
Titus's hard defense also gave me pause. I knew it couldn't be scum/scum defense, but WK was a possibility and Titus as scum will hang herself given sufficient rope.

McMenno's response to the day is pretty sketchy. I've had a mild scumread there the whole game. He'd be my preferred lynch from your list. Of those I suspect gerryoat and LUV the least but I'm probably wrong on one of them. Just not sure which one.

[davesaz]

I'm actually much more interested in Maria's day 2 than day 3. Day 3 went really fast - her lynch felt quite inevitable from near the start. Day 2 she could easily have been lynched, but wasn't - so that's where the scum were making interesting decisions.

Yes, those who fought against my push or made sketchy pushes of their own and hasn't later been shown to be town should be suspect.
Yes, I should be looking at that myself, and plan to. But RN I need to shop for dinner so I'm suggesting this lead to town in case y'all want to get started on it.

[davesaz]

Actions can occur anytime during the phase the power is active.
Do we want to give advice to the other reviver if it's active?

[davesaz]

Would consider lynching: AA9, gerryoat, davesaz, Kison,

LUV, TWIE, McMenno.

Pleasantly small pool, actually.

this is my exact list of preferred lunches tbh.

Plus maxous

Did you read the posts between the one you quoted and your reply? You should realize the pool shrank in that time -- do you agree with the shrinkage?

[davesaz]

There are basically two options for the other reviver. Either pick a card that benefits town when active and hope something compatible comes up trump, or pick a card that can be rigged to turn on good town powers.

[davesaz]

10 of diamonds

as trump

enables Cop, PGO, RB, Alpha Vig, and all diamonds powers (if it's a DAY trump including

double lynch

if someone owns a K).
Why would you think that's a scummy move?

[davesaz]

I don't get the Dunn wagon at all.

VOTE: McMenno

[davesaz]

I thought we had agreed that Dunn revived a protown card to a town player. Would scum take that chance?

[davesaz]

I thought it possible that Titus was scum right up to her flip. Town more likely than not, but as scum she could have defended Maria simply because we don't expect scum to hard defend their partners. I think that others thought she was scum after her defense of Maria. Furthermore I think that

Dunn would

think she was scum in that circumstance. I've watched Dunn form a lot of reads that way. The post in question was probably a legitimate desire to kill her. Not a scum slip if he thought she was scum. I've seen him make the exact same type of post countless times as town.

If he is scum then we get more evidence and lynch him later. If he is town we preserve the ability to revive 2 more cards if another 7 comes up trump. What's wrong with pursuing other more scummy players?

[davesaz]

If you have likely town who made a post which can be misinterpreted as a scumslip if you squint, vs obvious scum -- why not lynch the obvious scum?
Lynch McMenno!

[davesaz]

Still dont get either why people had such a strong read on magna. Slot was a complete blank since the start of the game as far as I'm concerned. At any rate, way to many of those slots left, and i have to many townreads for them not to be scumfested.

I agree with this. AA9 would be an acceptable lynch for me.

[davesaz]

The game is almost at PoE level for me. Lynch everyone I don't have a town read on and adjust if any of them flip town.
Slight chance that a townread is skating but they'd need to be acting really hard to fit in.

[davesaz]

We're not lynching the guy who revived a town card to a town player, while there is still potential revive action to be gained.
If he's scum, which I don't believe for a second anyway, we can lynch him last.

I'm beginning to think that MathBlade is scum tunneling the player most dangerous to scum.

[davesaz]

getting lead around like a puppy dog on a leash to a player that the majority scumreads

What?

[davesaz]

The only thing that makes me hesitate to vote McMenno is I find it questionable that he, as scum, would have chosen to defend Maria on day 3 when the wagon was size 7, especially when he indicated during day 2 that he'd be willing to vote for her. It was incredibly clear at that point that she was going to be lynched, so it would have been easy to just cast the vote and hop aboard. Why choose (very weakly) to defend her there and draw attention to himself?

Being willing to vote for her day 2 doesn't force scum!McMenno to bus on day 3. It's not like he was pushing her. The fact that it "looks" more towny to defend her day 3 could be the exact reason why scum!McMenno might do that. If anything this just reinforces the thought to me that he's scum, because he doesn't form and push real scum reads.

[davesaz]

Hmm, I've lost count. Last vc we needed 3-4 vote changes.
DL in 13ish hours, that's the middle of the night for me. I'd prefer it be resolved in <8 hours as I'd hate to be caught sleeping during a NL.

[davesaz]

I definitely see the 1st two as scum.
Have not paid enough attention to Maxous or TWIE. That could be an indicator as it probably means I didn't find anything they did memorable.

[davesaz]

Only one factional kill per day/night sequence. Rigging during night pushes the other spade to night btw. The Js would need to be revived to highest draft order townie holding a heart if we wanted to rig hearts for next day.
Reviving the 3c doesn't make it active because we don't have a club coming...

[davesaz]

EBWOP - doesn't need to be highest order if we only revive 1 of them...

[davesaz]

Consider reviving both Js in case one of the recipients still gets killed, as long as we have two semi-conf to revive to?
The other deck rigging card (3c?) is useful only if it comes up trumps eventually.
I'm fine with either plan, just wanted to bring up the insurance plan aspect of reviving both.

Also don't forget that the revive target needs a card to rig with that gives us a good day trump. That probably increases the benefit of massclaim enough to push it over the top, but I'm open to opinions against it.

[davesaz]

Liked the setup, thought the balance in this case was due more to players than cards, would play again.
An interesting alternative mechanic would be to pick 2 cards and be dealt a third. That way you have control over the cards you want but could get saddled with an unwanted one (or get an unexpected bonus).
Card revive a random card to a stated player or stated card to a random player might be interesting.
Not a fan of the fruit vendor / allergy. Even though it didn't play a part in the game other than as negative strategy, the possibility of a mass vigging if used in conjunction with a deck rig is pretty swingy.
The specialty vig cards could be a good disincentive to massclaim, if used to their full potential.

What if the draft and card picking happened before alignment? Scum would lose the ability to coordinate picks but card picks would no longer be alignment indicative. That would pull the teeth out of massclaim.

[davesaz]

Personally, I think the coordination of picks allows for more interesting flavours of manipulation for creative scumteams and also enables another form of scumhunting for savvy townies -- there are a lot of inferences you can make about what scum may or may not have picked, especially when the town has a few flips under their belt. Even number analysis can be handy at times, for example;

town should have concluded that it's quite unlikely TWIE is scum picking 12 after Uzi who also picked 12 flipped scum.

Does town really think scum are willing to double up on such a high number and sabotage their draft position? Maybe some scumteams with very deceptive/forward planning players might, but most won't consider this longterm gambit.

I stopped paying attention to this, but it definitely would have come into play if I had survived longer.

I raised the idea of flipping the order of pregame events specifically for the effects on massclaim. I agree the advantages of the current system are strong and many.

[davesaz]

t 6 - rb
t 9 - Creature
t 14 - Jackel98
s 26 - MariaR
t 42 - Vedith
t 77 - kraska77
t 3141592653 - Titus
t 4 - MagnaofIllusion
t 4 - Transcend
t 5 - gerryoat
t 5 - Fishythefish
t 11 - davesaz
s 11 - Kison
t 13 - gigabyteTroubadour
t 13 - Maxous
s 17 - drealmerz7
t 17 - Drone
s 2 - Vecna
t 2 - Dunnstral
t 2 - SpyreX
t 12 - McMenno
s 12 - Lil Uzi Vert
t 12 - Vifam

scum picked 2, 11, 12, 17, 26.

and my numbers theory had guessed at 1 in the singletons (correct, 26), 1 in the very low numbers (correct, 2), and 1 in the very high numbers (wrong because scum's highest pick was 26).

[davesaz]

just a playerbase thing that needs to be accepted these days?

i think it's this tbh

this table just happened to have a lot of shitposters and some of those shitposters were friends

i'd like to think my hyperposting afterwards (where i went from a middling poster to literally the top poster within like 1 gameday) wasn't destructive though in the same way :///

also gonna answer the survey now

I'm torn between wanting to crack down on pure spam to keep it readable for those of us who don't, vs. not wanting to kill the fun and it being hard to draw a balanced line.
Maybe WOTM / WOTC shunning the worst of the shitposters as a form of behavior modification?

[davesaz]

No objection to releasing any pt. I think it should be standard practice for everything but perhaps hydras.