DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Cheetory6]

Still, SAD is flipping town. Guarantee you that much.

I know arrogance in assuming you're right after having been right the first day.

Isn't this hypocritical of you to say after S_S?

[Cheetory6]

Like, you would think you might be like "oh well maybe my reads aren't perfect" after you made a misstep.
Like.
I get that you're mastin and this is like.. how you process stuff.
But just reversing the UT read to town instead of scum doesn't give me incredible amounts of confidence that you're seriously processing what's going on in this game right now >.>

[Papa Zito]

I know arrogance in assuming you're right after having been right the first day.
Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

By the way, with the Something_smart wagon

thoroughly

demolished at this point, I can say:
Mission fucking accomplished.

[mastina]

[Why would GuyInFreezer counterclaim his own buddy?

Okay, history time.

My mini normal had a Mafia Sane Cop.
A mafia goon claimed cop.
Haylen, the mafia sane cop, counterclaimed.

The mafia goon was seen as scummy, and had been run up under pressure.
Haylen was seen as town even before the claim.

It's a dead mirror to this game.

There are dozens of reasons GiF would counterclaim. Namely, if GiF HAS the cop, and Something_smart doesn't (which he didn't)...guess what happens if GiF claims to have the cop later and S_s was dead without so much of a peep from GiF? The result is that GiF's claim would be thrown into suspicion. What stops us from thinking GiF is just trying the same thing as Something_smart? What stops us from thinking he's a scum goon hoping to draw out the real cop? What stops us from pointing out his lack of counterclaim D1?

Exactly. GiF is not a moron. He knows basic player psychology. And basic player psychology is to make this face: ...when someone later claims cop in a suspicious manner mirroring the suspicious cop claim made on D1. Especially if said player did not go hard against the original cop claim. So GiF, as scum, has one of two options: counterclaim, or push Something_smart HARD and when he later claims, point to the constant nonstop pushing OF Something_smart as proof he knew Something_smart was full of shit because *he* had the cop.

GiF, 100%, guarantee you, possesses the cop. There is not a shadow of a doubt in my mind about this. But GreyICE said it himself: what stops the scum for trying to nab the most dangerous power to them, as to make it useless for the town? Not to mention, a scum cop is useful for the scum trying to hunt for the terrorist. So it goes basically without saying, the scum legitimately vied for the cop.

This was a carefully planned and executed scum ploy. The more and more I read, the more and more I see evidence for it.

[mastina]

are you reading anything at all or just blindly re-spouting whatever reads you had yesterday

My reads have changed, off of new evidence.

My SAD read hasn't because nothing in the new evidence changes my stance. Rather, everything I see reaffirms it. SAD is town, and will be flipping such.

[mastina]

you mean READS CHANGE SOMETIMES!?!

Sure they do.
But they don't change from "I have a townread on mastina" to "I can't read mastina at all".
They can change into, "I'm not longer sure what my read on mastina is".
They can change into, "I was townreading her, but now I'm not sure".
They can change into, "I was townreading her, but now I need to think about it".
Those make sense. That's a logical progression off of new information: you had a read, but then that read changed into something less certain: null, or ambivalent.

When you said you couldn't read me, however, there was no such inclination. There was no effort to read me further. There was no indication of your prior townread. There was no acknowledgement of what you had done, nor a reason for why it had changed. There was nothing, except an abrupt transition: "I think mastina is town" to "I can't read mastina at all". The phrasing is important. Because when you said you couldn't read me, the way you said it was basically as if that was your only read on me ever, as if you were deliberately discarding your prior input.

Which is why I said, idiot or terrorist.
It is not out of the question for you to have done this as town, but it requires an extremely stupid series of justifications.

[mastina]

me early on: "i dont think mastin is this dumb/moronic as scum"
me later: "jesus christ idfk what mastin's doing i cant read her"

Yes exactly.
Your stance that I wouldn't be acting this way as scum changed, yet your logic did not. "I don't know what mastina's doing" is basically identical to the "I don't think mastina would act this way as scum". Yet your read differed despite the identical logic.

That's the issue at hand.

If you had given detail on WHY the two were different, I wouldn't have that issue with you. I'd see the progression, the change in thought. But because you haven't, here we are.

[mastina]

we seem to like forgetting that this setup discourages bussing pre-nukes

In general sure.

But for Something_smart?

Literally a universal scumread?

Like.

I ask of you.

How many people declared strong intent of thinking Something_smart was town?

...For that matter. I can count on a

single fucking hand

the number of people who expressed so much as a TOWNREAD on Something_smart.

There aren't enough players to match the surviving scum, for you to think that scum actively defended him by calling him town.
It's literally impossible.

So you HAVE.
Absolutely, 100%, MUST.
Assume that at least some scum had Something_smart as at least null, if not nullscum or even flat-out scum.

Of course you can argue that they called Something_smart scum and didn't vote him, an opinion I think half-true (in that there's gonna be at least one scum who did this but it sure as fuck isn't going to be most/all of them), but the point remains.

Something_smart is not someone the scumteam defended. Not actively at the very least.

I guarantee you.

[mastina]

SS being a Silo means he had to get to Defcon 1 to get the free scum kill.

And yet you're forgetting a fundamental fact:
Something_smart claimed a role he did not have, on D1.

The scum cannot kill until N2.
They cannot nuke until D3.

If the cop was town and counterclaimed him on D1, as you believe...
...Then Something_smart was going to be a GUARANTEED lynch, and therefore...could not nuke.

So the scum, to take out the cop, in this scenario would be sacrificing not one, but TWO members: Something_smart to the lynch, by cop counterclaim, and whoever the scum is that launches a nuke AT the cop claim.

Which is why I much prefer my GiF-is-scum-with-the-cop theory.

[mastina]

And personally, three of my strongest suspects right now are GiF, Zito, and RC.

How would these three people embody the trolling mentality you just described? RedCoyote, specifically.

The thing about the scumteam, from what we know of the leaks, is that there are two halves to them:
A trolling half.
And a code half.

The scumteam needs members who belong to BOTH halves.

GiF and RC belong to the code half: SOMEONE on the scumteam needed to have invented the code. And from what we have seen of the code, GiF and RC are likely candidates for having developed it.

The scumteam also needs to have members who are trolls.

This REEKS of being Zito's brand of trolling, if you know facts about Zito's personality. Look at his posting in speakeasy in particular and you'll get a fairly decent idea of what I mean. Zito thrives on this sort of thing, so he fits perfectly.

Ircher isn't quite as clean a fit, but I can ALSO see this trolling as his doing, which is why he is a candidate.

There's a reason I'm saying to focus on those four.

[mastina]

So, I'm guessing that pseudo-confirms Guy as not-mafia? Pretty bad bus otherwise imo since there was a lot of resistance to the lynch prior to the counterclaim.

^This is GiF's partner by the way.

Justsayin'.

[Spiffeh]

What happened to LLD?

[mastina]

Hi Mastina I was your top sucm read all yesterday where did my name go?

I have stated on multiple occasions that you are my intended nuke target, so as long as I am living to see D3 (which is looking like a certainty given people are so eager to mislynch SAD and it would be a massive fucking surprise to see either the SK or scum kill me), my read on you is, frankly...utterly, and completely, irrelevant. A nuke on you would reveal your alignment. It's really as simple as that. So I don't need to state my read on you. I'll live tomorrow to see your alignment. (Well, not long tomorrow, but long enough.)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

What happened to LLD?

I am watching chess world championships

[Spiffeh]

No I was asking mastin what happened to her scum read of you

Her recent answer does not satisfy me

[Lady Lambdadelta]

No I was asking mastin what happened to her scum read of you

Her recent answer does not satisfy me

No shit, lol

[mastina]

if you actually believe in GiF scum why don't you actually get out and push the wagon

Because even if I am right, GiF is more useful to us right now alive than dead.

And as long as that remains true, as long as regardless of his alignment he is more valuable alive than dead, he is not a lynch target nor a nuke target.

He was not blocked, so he can NEVER claim to be blocked in the game.
He cannot continue claiming to have investigated the nightkill, so he MUST make results at points which we can believe or disbelieve but which can always be tested. (For instance, if the serial killer kills someone he cleared, and that player flips mafia: he's a caught liar. So he's forced to claim innocents that are likely innocent.) If he claims a guilty which flips not guilty, he's a fucking liar. If he claims a guilty which flips guilty, yay go us. If he claims a guilty in a known lylo or mylo, lynch his fucking ass. If he lives even when the doctor is proven dead, he's lynched. If we ever get a scum doctor flip, lynch his fucking ass. If scum with a missile silo are lynched without nuking him (D3 or later), lynch his fucking ass. And as long as he lives, both he and whoever he clears are bait for the SK to kill, and also force the scum to kill, those names, to stop PoE from wrecking them.

This is all true of him if he is mafia.
And if I am wrong (which everyone here believes I am anyway), then he'd be town, and...well, no fucking shit letting the town cop live is beneficial.

So as I said.
He is above reproach.

He is, however, still scum.
So yes, I will continue to go Cassandra at y'all for as long as both he and I live.

[mastina]

I get the sense as I depart my computer that mastina's sudden flurry of activity is more or less motivated to derail the righteous SAD lynch.

I'll be quoting this when SAD flips town.

[Ircher]

And personally, three of my strongest suspects right now are GiF, Zito, and RC.

How would these three people embody the trolling mentality you just described? RedCoyote, specifically.

The thing about the scumteam, from what we know of the leaks, is that there are two halves to them:
A trolling half.
And a code half.

The scumteam needs members who belong to BOTH halves.

GiF and RC belong to the code half: SOMEONE on the scumteam needed to have invented the code. And from what we have seen of the code, GiF and RC are likely candidates for having developed it.

The scumteam also needs to have members who are trolls.

This REEKS of being Zito's brand of trolling, if you know facts about Zito's personality. Look at his posting in speakeasy in particular and you'll get a fairly decent idea of what I mean. Zito thrives on this sort of thing, so he fits perfectly.

Ircher isn't quite as clean a fit, but I can ALSO see this trolling as his doing, which is why he is a candidate.

There's a reason I'm saying to focus on those four.

My apologies, but I don't troll, esp. not that way.

[Papa Zito]

This REEKS of being Zito's brand of trolling, if you know facts about Zito's personality. Look at his posting in speakeasy in particular and you'll get a fairly decent idea of what I mean. Zito thrives on this sort of thing, so he fits perfectly.

Normally I'd ask for specific examples but in this case that would just result in more mastin posts.

[mastina]

Still, SAD is flipping town. Guarantee you that much. I know arrogance in assuming you're right after having been right the first day.

Isn't this hypocritical of you to say after S_S?

Quite explicitly, no, BECAUSE I was wrong about Something_smart.
Because I was wrong about Something_smart, my confidence is not arrogance of having been right on D1.
It is confidence in SPITE of being wrong D1.

Whereas most of the strongest (read: people actually making cases against) SAD wagoners are players who were advocating for Something_smart's death on D1: arrogance born of being right. As I said, I know arrogance from having been right. I've BEEN the person arrogant after having been right. And this is a lynch which is arrogance born of being right, with a side of some blatantly scum players sheeping because the players who are arrogant are too blind to notice how atrociously bad the sheeps are. (For instance, read Ircher's reason for joining this wagon.)

[Cheetory6]

Zzzz.

[Untrod Tripod]

if you actually believe in GiF scum why don't you actually get out and push the wagon

Because even if I am right, GiF is more useful to us right now alive than dead.

And as long as that remains true, as long as regardless of his alignment he is more valuable alive than dead, he is not a lynch target nor a nuke target.

He was not blocked, so he can NEVER claim to be blocked in the game.
He cannot continue claiming to have investigated the nightkill, so he MUST make results at points which we can believe or disbelieve but which can always be tested. (For instance, if the serial killer kills someone he cleared, and that player flips mafia: he's a caught liar. So he's forced to claim innocents that are likely innocent.) If he claims a guilty which flips not guilty, he's a fucking liar. If he claims a guilty which flips guilty, yay go us. If he claims a guilty in a known lylo or mylo, lynch his fucking ass. If he lives even when the doctor is proven dead, he's lynched. If we ever get a scum doctor flip, lynch his fucking ass. If scum with a missile silo are lynched without nuking him (D3 or later), lynch his fucking ass. And as long as he lives, both he and whoever he clears are bait for the SK to kill, and also force the scum to kill, those names, to stop PoE from wrecking them.

This is all true of him if he is mafia.
And if I am wrong (which everyone here believes I am anyway), then he'd be town, and...well, no fucking shit letting the town cop live is beneficial.

So as I said.
He is above reproach.

He is, however, still scum.
So yes, I will continue to go Cassandra at y'all for as long as both he and I live.

okay

I think the trajectory leading to the claim is far more likely to come from town than scum. It seems to me that Gif was waiting to see if we would lynch SS anyway and when it seemed like we wouldn't he just dropped the counterclaim to keep us from mislynching

Seems to me that if this were a mafia ploy he would have just dropped the counterclaim sooner

I dunno. I just have a really hard time seeing his counterclaim as anything other than "OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE"

[Papa Zito]

Yes that's the rational explanation.

[Untrod Tripod]

Lol