Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Jitsu]

Whoa, this game has ground to a halt. So are we basically waiting on Oman, Flay, and Jerub to comment then?

Maybe I'll do some more rereading and see if anything else stands out.

[curiouskarmadog]

basically yeah...I woud like to hear those three's comments on the game thus far today...in addition, I would like to hear Oman's comments on the game as a whole...

[NabakovNabakov]

Oman PM'd me to say he'd be gone for a few days. Flay and jerrubaal will be prodded.

Vote Count as of Post 876

Setael (2):

Mr. Flay, Adel

jerubbaal (1):

Abstract Actuary

Not Voting (6):

jerubbaal, Satael, curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym, Jitsu, Oman

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

[Oman]

Oman is back. Sorry i PMed my Mods instead of posting in the game cause I'd probably forget one, someone would meta it, and it would be some dumb alignment argument on me.

Anyways...rereading the rest of this. I don't really like either case at the moment. I understand D3 usually is full of hidden cop presses or secret doc confirms (especially with the lack of NK), so I don't want to put anything away yet. Coming into a game D3 takes a lot more thought IMO than coming in D1.

[jerubbaal]

Wow, very sorry for the lack of activity lately. I was expecting to have some time this weekend and didn't. I'll try to be better about this in the future, or at least make it more clear when I'll be unavailable for a while.

I will try to have a stronger and longer post up tomorrow, but for the moment, I am most suspicious of Flay. Have mentioned some of my reasons in brief and will have a more comprehensive post with all my reasons up sometime tomorrow (hopefully).

[Adel]

looking forward to your post tomorrow (hopefully).

I'm also looking foward to some decent posts from Mr. Flay and Oman

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, 6 hours of reading and four days late, here's what I think:

1. The Setael wagon is WAY too convenient. Setael essentially spotted something everyone else missed in 521, but held onto it until L-2? That's weird behavior, whether you're scum or town.
   Unvote
   for now.
2. Adel stands a *small* chance of being Korlash' scumbuddy; she could have been throwing him under the bus from the word go, although that's unorthodox. I happen to believe she's wrong about jerubbaal, and we now know she was wrong about Miztef. For now I'll chalk it up to crystalline logic (she's actually ranked most-likely-to-be-town in my notes).
3. Vote: Abstract Actuary
   - multiple insinuations that Korlash is just a townie D1, even deflecting suspicion on him in post 79 while attacking jerubbaal AND speculating on the number/composition of the Mafia!?! Post 239 shows AA finally unvoting Korlash and jumping to... Miztef. Furthermore, even as late as 614 he is still defending Korlash, and lobbying to lynch Miztef (now known to be town) despite the fact that he himself unvoted once the replacement parade arrived. 815 has an incredibly sketchy suspicion on me for helping frame Setael... Post 824 is tricky, because he was probably already posting it when NabNab mentioned Oman's imminent arrival 3 minutes earlier, in 823. The only other player to 'miss' Oman's arrival is CKD in 826, but he practically bankrolled the Korlash wagon, so that doesn't seem relevant.
4. Jitsu seems moderately pro-town, though he had some "confusion" sorting out what all the meta was about with Korlash. People
   were
   being terribly obtuse about it, which is reasonable given the earlier warning/threats of modkill for talking about ongoing games.
5. CKD's feud with Setael seems real. He started of my list scummy as hell, but it's hard to argue with the way he shot Korlash down. If he's scum, he's good at it, no lie there.
6. No bloody read on Oman
   née Gunslinger
   yet. I don't like that his joke vote on CKD stayed there for so long, though.

This is really stream-of-consciousness, so I'll probably have more in the morning, but for now I need to sleep a few hours before work.

[Jitsu]

The Setael wagon is WAY too convenient. Setael essentially spotted something everyone else missed in 521, but held onto it until L-2? That's weird behavior, whether you're scum or town.

Unvote

for now

I need to consider some your comments more carefully, but for now I have a couple of questions, on first read.

Regarding Setael's vote justification on Korlash on Day 2, if you thought the reason for Setael's vote was good earlier in the day, why did you start a wagon on her then? And now you are unvoting her simply because someone suggested that she found it earlier and held onto it until she needed it?

I don't really believe that either, since I think it would have been a much better play to expose it and bus Korlash with it, getting major townie points in the process. But even though it was a really nice find (she has to get some kudos for that, regardless of whether she's town or scum), I don't see how it clears her either. Isn't it also possible that she was just a scum looking for a better reason to vote (other than "me too") and reread to find one? A lot of people started rereading Korlash's posts around that time, once CKD found his meta evidence.

You don't agree with Adel about Jerub? I'd like you to clarify. Do you mean you think Jerub is innocent? If so, that's quite a reversal of your opinion from earlier where you FoS'ed Jerub along with me. Any specific reason why?

[Mr. Flay]

Short answer: Upon re-reading the entire thread, there seemed to be a LOT of wagon-pushing on Anata/Setael. Some of that is due to lurking an actual scumminess, of course, but Adel had a good point with her "the Miztef wagon and the Korlash wagon have some crucial differences" observation. I'm not unwilling to lynch Setael anymore, but I have a feeling some of her detractors may be Korlash' buddies instead. So I went looking for the less obvious people...

As for jerubbaal, I'd like to play that one a little close to the vest for now, but I'll expand a bit more when I get home in front of my notes once more.

[Adel]

Mod: could you send another round of prods?

Setael hasn't posted for six days.

[NabakovNabakov]

Abstract Actuary, Setael, and Sudo_Nym have been prodded.

Vote Count as of Post 884

Setael (1):

Adel

jerubbaal (1):

Abstract Actuary

Abstract Actuary (1):

Mr. Flay

Not Voting (6):

jerubbaal, Satael, curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym, Jitsu, Oman

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry, it's the hols and finals week. I may be scarce on the entire internets for a bit. I'm actually going to reread as well, though probably not until tomorrow (tomorrow being my day off).

[jerubbaal]

Dude.. go meta me or something... This is how I play... Every game...

So which is it, do we have no life for meta-ing you, or should we meta you more often?

I find it is an awesome strategy. Firstly, if someone wants to build a case they have to wade through tons of fluff. (Good strategy for both town and scum)

Secondly, It also gives me that "idiot town" look that even you have mentioned. I get by with that claim almost every game. (Again, good for both town and scum)

By all means please question me. But don't think that what I am doing is such an obvious scumtell... Cause it really isn't...

Your first two paragraphs are damning enough, really. Strategies that make you harder to read are not necessarily pro-town, because it means we either have to waste a Cop investigation on you every game, or lynch you to discover the truth. Better if you can show ways in which you are helpful town and avoid either of those scenarios.

I think the 585/644 thing is useful information, but more importantly I'm becoming convinced that Korlash is not an asset to the town, and may indeed be a hindrance.

Unvote, Vote: Korlash

- I'd still prefer to string up Gunslinger today, but the will is not there from other people apparently (which is disturbing to me).

More people need to post in this game than just Adel, ckd, Korlash, Jitsu, and myself!

This is the first post where I have some trouble with the basis of Flay's reasoning. I believe the contradiction was well established by this point, yet Flay seems reluctant to lynch Korlash. He finds it necessary to make it clear that, if Korlash is a townie, he's a lousy townie (which is absolutely true), and this seems to be a more central reason for Flay's vote than Korlash's lie. It seems like a dumb, live townie is usually better than a dumb, dead townie. The fact that Korlash's playstyle is a hindrance to him being helpful to the town is not a good basis for lynching. His lie, however, is.

Also, he seems set on Gunslinger as the lynch, despite the strength of the case on Korlash. Once Gunslinger disappears, however, Flay drops any push he had against Gunslinger and says that his actions are explained by Not Being Present, not necessarily lurking. However, pushing to lynch someone against whom the primary charge is lurking in the face of a case where a lie has been reasonably well established does not make sense. Gunslinger lurked like mad, Korlash lied. The case against Korlash is clearly better. Why then, Flay do you still state that you would prefer a Gunslinger lynch to a Korlash lynch? (I would actually appreciate an answer to this)

Also on this topic, I would appreciate a response to my post 829, which was the last one directed at Flay.

Regarding 881, the turn seems very sudden. I am confused at the logic behind point 1. I was not under the impression that Setael's discovery of Korlash's contradiction in-thread was something that she was deliberately holding on to. Also, if you understood Set to be deliberately holding back information, why does that make you unvote her? I simply don't understand the line of reasoning here.

I'm also curious what came of the line of reasoning that you began in 643, that Anata's dropping and coming back were a major tell? It seems to me to be a big point against Set that no one is acknowledging any more. Have you abandoned this as a major tell? Adel disagrees with your pretty much right away, after a brief misinterpretation, but the idea still seems to hold some water. I'm kind of surprised you dropped it so quickly when Adel disagreed.

I think Jitsu's questions in 882 are reasonably made, and the Flay's response does not really address the relevant points. In general, many of my problems with Flay have to do with an unwillingness on his part to address the relevant points. This confuses me, as I understood you to be a very experienced player. I like very much the sentiment of looking at the less visible players (I'll have to go back and re-read AA to evaluate the argument here, on a first read it seems to hold some water), but you just seem to be all over the place, Flay. Perhaps you're doing something I don't get, but your lines of reasoning this game have made little sense to me.


I've been more or less absent from this thread for quite a while, and I'm kind of surprised by the lack of new content until Flay posted his recent stuff. Things have stagnated, and that's never a good thing. I have yet to do a very rigorous read-through, but re-evaluating early stuff seems important in light of what we now know. Bringing up stuff like Flay does regarding AA and remembering that Set did replace Anata could help us bring some of this stuff into perspective.

[Oman]

I believe the contradiction was well established by this point, yet Flay seems reluctant to lynch Korlash. He finds it necessary to make it clear that, if Korlash is a townie, he's a lousy townie (which is absolutely true), and this seems to be a more central reason for Flay's vote than Korlash's lie.

I personally don't see the problem with Flay saying that someone who is a hindrance to the town (to such an extent) is worth a vote. If he was pushing hard for the lynch I wouldn't like it, but its not really that heavy.

The fact that Korlash's playstyle is a hindrance to him being helpful to the town is not a good basis for lynching.

His playstyle being "Krap logic" is more a joke than an actual reason to lynch. I fail to see where anyone cited his meta as a reason for a vote.

I think Jitsu's questions in 882 are reasonably made,

Agree

and the Flay's response does not really address the relevant points

Disagree:

You don't agree with Adel about Jerub?

Upon re-reading the entire thread, there seemed to be a LOT of wagon-pushing on Anata/Setael. Some of that is due to lurking an actual scumminess, of course, but Adel had a good point with her "the Miztef wagon and the Korlash wagon have some crucial differences" observation.

I'd like you to clarify. Do you mean you think Jerub is innocent?

As for jerubbaal, I'd like to play that one a little close to the vest for now,

If so, that's quite a reversal of your opinion from earlier where you FoS'ed Jerub along with me. Any specific reason why?

That works for me.

I am most suspicious of Flay

Can you please go over these again Pre-this post (i.e. not including anything after post 879)?

[Setael]

Regarding Setael's vote justification on Korlash on Day 2, if you thought the reason for Setael's vote was good earlier in the day, why did you start a wagon on her then? And now you are unvoting her simply because someone suggested that she found it earlier and held onto it until she needed it?

Can someone remind me who first suggested that I saw 521 earlier and didn't say anything? I was thinking it was Jitsu but here he says "someone" suggested it. That argument really is a stretch - like Flay said, it would be a weird thing for either scum or town to do. Whoever suggested it first - you are my new top suspect.

I won't have time until tomorrow morning to look through the thread and find it, so if someone else has a few spare minutes, I'd appreciate you looking it up for me.

[Adel]

I am starting to really like the town's chances of winning this game. Yes, I am keeping quiet at this point, but since I am pretty close to the top of each player's "most townie" list, I don't want to provide cover for scum to hide behind, especially as part of a buss. I think I know who the next scum is, but I'm still having trouble identifying the probable third.

[curiouskarmadog]

I am starting to really like the town's chances of winning this game. Yes, I am keeping quiet at this point, but since I am pretty close to the top of each player's "most townie" list, I don't want to provide cover for scum to hide behind, especially as part of a buss. I think I know who the next scum is, but I'm still having trouble identifying the probable third.

wish I shared your optimism. Why are you just now starting to like our chances? Has something occurred that I have missed? Are you going to give us some insight into who you think our scum is? Also, was this just a post to essentially say “I am here”?

[Abstract Actuary]

I've been prodded . . . I thought we were waiting on a complete reread and analysis from Oman. It now appears as if that may not be coming.

My thoughts coming out of night 2 haven't changed much. I'm going to try to do a complete reread at some point this week or weekend.

Vote: Abstract Actuary

- multiple insinuations that Korlash is just a townie D1, even deflecting suspicion on him in post 79 while attacking jerubbaal AND speculating on the number/composition of the Mafia!?! Post 239 shows AA finally unvoting Korlash and jumping to... Miztef. Furthermore, even as late as 614 he is still defending Korlash, and lobbying to lynch Miztef (now known to be town) despite the fact that he himself unvoted once the replacement parade arrived. 815 has an incredibly sketchy suspicion on me for helping frame Setael... Post 824 is tricky, because he was probably already posting it when NabNab mentioned Oman's imminent arrival 3 minutes earlier, in 823. The only other player to 'miss' Oman's arrival is CKD in 826, but he practically bankrolled the Korlash wagon, so that doesn't seem relevant.

My initial impressions of Korlash was that he was a very talkative and annoying townie. In day 1 especially, I got a lot of townie vibes from him. They were wrong, obviously. Even in day 2, I didn't think there was a strong case against him until he was caught in a lie, which I never fully realized the conclusiveness of until day 3. Other than that I thought the cases against him as mafia were extremely weak. For that reason I defended him on both days to some degree. There isn't much more I can say. He seemed town to me, I was wrong.

There isn't anything substantial in the remaining accusations. They seem pretty . . . forced.

[Adel]

"Why are you just now starting to like our chances? "
because even though the pace of posting has slowed, the signal:noise ratio is as high as I've ever seen in a game. Even if we have a mislynch today and a couple of players get replaced the information necessary to win in endgame is here and easy to find.
"Why are you just now starting to like our chances?
I've liked them since Korlash was revealed as scum. I have an "If, Then" dependency that I have a lot of confidence in.
"Are you going to give us some insight into who you think our scum is?"
Yes. Expect a monster post from me either late on page 38 or early on page 39.
"Also, was this just a post to essentially say 'I am here'?"
More or less. I'm posting about once every 12 hours, and paying very close attention to every post made here. I also wanted to send a message to our scum: be afraid.

[curiouskarmadog]

also FYI

Also anata’s other game (the one she kept while letting this one go) has ended…she was vanilla town.

[Mr. Flay]

(snip)

This is the first post where I have some trouble with the basis of Flay's reasoning. I believe the contradiction was well established by this point, yet Flay seems reluctant to lynch Korlash. He finds it necessary to make it clear that, if Korlash is a townie, he's a lousy townie (which is absolutely true), and this seems to be a more central reason for Flay's vote than Korlash's lie. It seems like a dumb, live townie is usually better than a dumb, dead townie. The fact that Korlash's playstyle is a hindrance to him being helpful to the town is not a good basis for lynching. His lie, however, is.

Actually, being a hindrance to the town is more of a justification for lynching than lying/being mistaken about whether or not you know Mafia Roleblocker is a possible role. Given a choice, I will ALWAYS choose to meta players based on the game I am playing, rather than other games/other players' games. I recognize that people can and do change their playstyle from game to game, so the strongest factor I have to rely on here is their play here.

Day One, it is almost impossible to find a truly scummy scum to lynch. Therefore you're generally better off eliminating someone who is not going to be an asset to the game. You gain information about who is willing to lynch this person, correlate that with the lynchee's actual alignment, and strengthen the town's position for eventual endgame. Korlash meets all of those criteria, independent of whether or not the Mafia RB thing happened to be an actual lie or not (have you looked at his death scene, by chance?)

Also, he seems set on Gunslinger as the lynch, despite the strength of the case on Korlash. Once Gunslinger disappears, however, Flay drops any push he had against Gunslinger and says that his actions are explained by Not Being Present, not necessarily lurking. However, pushing to lynch someone against whom the primary charge is lurking in the face of a case where a lie has been reasonably well established does not make sense. Gunslinger lurked like mad, Korlash lied. The case against Korlash is clearly better. Why then, Flay do you still state that you would prefer a Gunslinger lynch to a Korlash lynch? (I would actually appreciate an answer to this)

Guilty as charged. I will pursue

lurkers

to the ends of the earth, because I feel very strongly that it is the players' responsibility to punish lurking when it does not help the town; mods are only responsible for dealing with Vanished Players. But once GunslingerKB went from Active Lurker (posting just enough to stay alive, albeit mostly with crap logic) to Vanished Player, he became less important to lynch. Again, no one has

proven

that Gunslinger lied about being a Mafia Roleblocker, only that he lied about whether or not he knew that there was a Mafia Roleblocker role possible.

Regarding 881, the turn seems very sudden. I am confused at the logic behind point 1. I was not under the impression that Setael's discovery of Korlash's contradiction in-thread was something that she was deliberately holding on to. Also, if you understood Set to be deliberately holding back information, why does that make you unvote her? I simply don't understand the line of reasoning here.

I'm also curious what came of the line of reasoning that you began in 643, that Anata's dropping and coming back were a major tell? It seems to me to be a big point against Set that no one is acknowledging any more. Have you abandoned this as a major tell? Adel disagrees with your pretty much right away, after a brief misinterpretation, but the idea still seems to hold some water. I'm kind of surprised you dropped it so quickly when Adel disagreed.

Oman has already touched on this, but the wagon on Setael today makes me nervous, despite the fact that I was one of the people on it. I wasn't going to mention the Newbie Game Anata was in being over, but it essentially destroyed the "Anata left because her role there was easier/more appealing" argument, unless she finds Vanilla Townie more appealing than whatever she has/had here. I'm still pissed about the abandonment, but it probably means it was in response to pressure, not role.

Also, I don't believe I ever claimed to know that Setael was holding back information deliberately, just that it makes no sense for her to do so as town OR scum. As scum, it would have been hard to pre-plan #521, because that was still Day One. It's possible Korlash-Setael-? talked N2 and set Korlash up to take the fall since he'd already argued himself into a corner, but I've got no evidence of that yet. So Setael fell to my second tier of choices, behind those who might be pushing for an opportunistic lynch.

I think Jitsu's questions in 882 are reasonably made, and the Flay's response does not really address the relevant points. In general, many of my problems with Flay have to do with an unwillingness on his part to address the relevant points. This confuses me, as I understood you to be a very experienced player. I like very much the sentiment of looking at the less visible players (I'll have to go back and re-read AA to evaluate the argument here, on a first read it seems to hold some water), but you just seem to be all over the place, Flay. Perhaps you're doing something I don't get, but your lines of reasoning this game have made little sense to me.

That's fair, and I'll be making a series of replies to follow-up questions on this page. I tend to post as much of my thoughts as possible, and my suspicions tend to bounce around a lot, hoping to shake something loose. I probably move my vote more than the average scummer, as I like to see what wagon-pressure does.

More to follow...

[Mr. Flay]

@Flay - I understand that dropping isn't scummy in and of itself, but I didn't understand your pressure on Gunslinger to be a post or perish approach. You seemed fixated on him as the best case for the day, beyond even what had been caught regarding Korlash. I'm not sure how getting a replacement changes the case on Gunslinger, aside explaining some of his lack of activity. If his lack of activity was the only reason you were so hot on him day 2, I don't think that's sufficient reason, especially compared to the Korlash case.

I hope I've answered this now, but if I haven't, let me know. Gunslinger as Active Lurker is much scummier than Gunslinger as Vanished Player, although he doesn't become any less scummy for the time he

was

"present".

I really don't like what you're doing here. You go through and explain your own tendencies as scum and then describe exactly how you don't meet those tendencies this time around.

I'm known for at least two things that make the current bandwagon suspicious: Throwing partners under the bus (in which case there was no reason for me to wait for CKD to point out Korlash's lie), and overly analytical posts (in which case the supposed "framing" of Setael is laughable).

Saying "This is what I do when I'm scum, and I'm not doing that now, so I must not be scum" is hardly a valid argument. The fact that you are self-aware enough to identify your own foibles as scum suggests that you are smart enough to adjust those tendencies when necessary.

I'm not saying it's impossible for me to defeat my own meta; far from it. I'm saying I've shown tendencies in the past to play at a better skill level than this supposed strategy indicates, so it wouldn't make much sense for me to take a step backwards. Thus, it's unlikely, and laughable from my POV.

[Adel]

I wasn't going to mention the Newbie Game Anata was in being over, but it essentially destroyed the "Anata left because her role there was easier/more appealing" argument, unless she finds Vanilla Townie more appealing than whatever she has/had here. I'm still pissed about the abandonment, but it probably means it was in response to pressure, not role.

Do you think it is possible she abandoned this game because she was scum, and was frustrated because she thought she was going to be lynched? Do you think that is more or less likely than if she was town? I think it either has to point in one direction or the other.

[Mr. Flay]

AA, who do you think might be Setael/Korlash' third? Why do you think there are exactly three scum?

[jerubbaal]

Oman, Flay expressed in that post that he preferred a Gunslinger lynch to an Korlash lynch. The cases against the players concerned were Gunslinger for lurking and Korlash for lying. It makes little sense to prefer lynching a lurker over a confirmed liar.

Flay did address Jitsu's questions regarding me, but his answer regarding his move away from Set is not developed any further than his vague sentiment that something is wrong with Set's wagon. This may be true, but I don't see the difference and would appreciate a stronger explanation.

Although I like some of the sentiment in Flay's logic lately (looking at less visible players, etc...), some of the moves that he has made recently seem rather forced. If the move away from Set toward AA is truly a move based on suspicion, I would appreciate a more thorough explanation. I don't find that the current one suffices.