Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Raskolnikov]

@Cloud

Maria, GM, back to this.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

Why does BV as scum bus when already heavily townread? What does he gain from it?

[CloudKicker]

@Cloud

Maria, GM, back to this.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

Why does BV as scum bus when already heavily townread? What does he gain from it?

I think that BV didnt actually hardbuss if you actually iso the guy. I believe that the sotty/bv ineractions were and could easily be mafia interactions since BV unvoted a bunch of time and some of his posts seems really inconsistent with a hard sotty sr. It seemed like he bussed to be consistent with his read as town!BV which his actions/behaviors did not match it. Being consistant when you antagonized your partner is also a way to strenghten your town position since he literraly lynched a mafia pr-claiming, something that is really ballsy imo so everyone would believe he hard sr her right ? I think that town!BV wouldve been even more consistent with his reads on sotty as per votes and the wagons, i also think that EVEN SO he wouldve been more careful about lynching a pr claim.

The wierd interactions, speech/behaviors non-matching but still ends up lynching a pr claims all points to scumplay imho, maybe im confbiasing too but this is the general feeling i got, maria also relieved good points. So its not more as to get towncred but to be consistent + solidify position, he literally got hammer on me today because of it and if hes mafia, theres no reason to hammer me here when he can just night kill without a loss of cred yknow.

[Raskolnikov]

I hard townread him earlier though for the work he was doing theorycrafting d1/d2 and in general he's put by far the most into figuring the game out. I can personally tell his work isn't BSing/agenda-driven even if I disagreed with the conclusions sometimes because you can follow the methodology and judge for yourself if it's reasonable (and it generally is).

[CloudKicker]

I also think that this is a fairly weak reason to hard tr someone rask, the jaack/sotty interactions are much more indicative of MvsT than bv/sotty's. BV also included some post with overjutification while voting sotty, as to make himself open to come back on his read and not lynch sotty if the wagon ever appeared to die

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud, I can tell you as a fact sotty wouldn't have been lynched if BV didn't join jaack there. It would have been gm, hoopla, maybe creature me maria.
And it doesn't look bad in any way for scum-bv to not lynch tracker claim there either, in fact that's the usual standard expected play.

[CloudKicker]

I hard townread him earlier though for the work he was doing theorycrafting d1/d2 and in general he's put by far the most into figuring the game out. I can personally tell his work isn't BSing/agenda-driven even if I disagreed with the conclusions sometimes because you can follow the methodology and judge for yourself if it's reasonable (and it generally is).

Yea i did tr him too, strong scum players on em, like me, do control the town with seemingly towny stuff when actually its just NAI, methodology is NAI and if you disagree with the conclusions then thats another tell. i prefer ppl to have shit logic with same conclusions than the other way around, mafia is much more caution and neutral in their train of thought than town, they also feel like they have to be critic-proof and so on annnd all this is even more true when you consider it was early game, you can coast the whole game with good-neutral ish posts that looks like hes game solving while slowly pushing his agenda. Just like his recent vote on gm, he justified himself in the very same post sayin' ''i dont feel it in my bones but i still vote them cause blablabla'' he did that all game, i can quote a certain post im thinking about when he was wondering about hoop/sotty d2 which was a bad post

[CloudKicker]

Exactly rask lol, mafia bussed and thats the sole reason why sotty was lynched as uncc tracker claim

[CloudKicker]

Because if mafia didnt buss then sotty wouldve never been lynched imho

[CloudKicker]

(not that day)

[CloudKicker]

Its really easy to just bus then attack someone outside the wagon lynch sotty and then go into straight lylo

[Hoopla]

Alright, listen up APPLES

I'm a proud apple through and through but BV is pretty obviously town and I can't tow the party line on this one. Come on now!

[CloudKicker]

HOLY CRAP I JUST RALIZED WE HAVE 2MLS THIS IS GAMECHANGING

[Raskolnikov]

It doesn't make sense to me though. If your partner isn't being lynched why lynch him for towncred when you're already townread.

The positions on that wagon that would be reasonable are more my own slot and hoopla's. If there is scum bussing it was hoopla.

Except I still don't see an all town wagon with gm-maria as explicitly impossible as she said, not if Jaack, BV and me are were on it already. Maria if scum I don't think would 180 and hop on, GM doesn't bus in general. In general assumptions like "there is always 1 scum on scum wagon" are just faulty from my experiences so far and I don't think claim necessarily changes that.

[Raskolnikov]

I also don't know that BV-scum would hardpush you to your face like this and power-lead mislynch wagon onto someone scumreading him encouraging hammer with no fucks given.

[Raskolnikov]

. . .

[goodmorning]

Despite everything I said, one of GM or Maria with hoopla is looking a little more reasonable than GM+Maria acting in the exact same fashion this past while as team >_>

Your reads are bad Rask stop it

i mean, it's true that we're not both scum so ????

@Cloud

Maria, GM, back to this.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

Why does BV as scum bus when already heavily townread? What does he gain from it?

Rask. Hoopla, Maria, and I have all responded to this question already.

(And you reiterating it on this page does nothing to progress the gamestate.)

Alright, listen up APPLES

I'm a proud apple through and through but BV is pretty obviously town and I can't tow the party line on this one. Come on now!

hoopla i disagree

but i'll vote creature eventually

[CloudKicker]

@ rask maybe ure right but you still shouldnt hard tr him imo for that the same way jaack is townread

[Jaack]

UNVOTE:

I don't really buy his claim (1418 doesn't strike me as particularly likely to come from a bg) but it's veracity will be evident with time.

I'm not really feeling any strong enough about anyone else's chance of being scum so I'm going to review some isos and stuff.

BlackVoid is still town though obviously. I literally don't see a case against him.

[CloudKicker]

UNVOTE:

I don't really buy his claim (1418 doesn't strike me as particularly likely to come from a bg) but it's veracity will be evident with time.

I'm not really feeling any strong enough about anyone else's chance of being scum so I'm going to review some isos and stuff.

BlackVoid is still town though obviously. I literally don't see a case against him.

I never planned to claim ever but to crumb the night before i wanted to use my visit, so again ur rebutal is not valid

[Creature]

UNVOTE:

[BlackVoid]

I won't be here most of the day but I feel like doing a thanksgiving matrix to give thanks to this game of mafia. I'm excluding Arona and Cloud for claims. Upon reflection, I buy Cloud's claim and am fairly sure he's town. Excluding Jaack as well. Here are the potential scumteams. I highly doubt anyone outside this Matrix is scum so I think this is fairly comprehensive.

Player	Rask	MariaR	GM	Creature	Hoopla
Rask	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MariaR	Probable	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GM	Eliminate	Probable	N/A	N/A	N/A
Creature	Probable	Probable	Eliminate	N/A	N/A
Hoops	Probable	Unlikely	Probable	Eliminate	N/A

Rask could be scum with MariaR, Creature, or Hoopla.
MariaR could be scum with Rask, Creature, or GM.
GM could be scum with MariaR or Hoopla.
Creature could be scum with Rask or MariaR.
Hoopla could be scum with Rask or GM. Perhaps MariaR but unlikely.

So, if I'm to believe Hoopla, she says it's Rask and Creature which I guess isn't impossible.

Rask's POV is the most interesting one. He went from GM + one of Hoopla/MariaR to Hoopla + one of GM/MariaR. Problem is, if we go back to our earlier assessment, Hoopla and MariaR don't make sense as a team either. So, it seems Hoopla/GM is the only plausible team if you are town and right. There is the possibility that you are town and wrong (about GM). That would put MariaR/Creature as the only real scumteam possibility. Since you bring up pre-flip interactions almost as much as I do, let me know your thoughts on MariaR/Creature being a possibility.

Then there's always the Rask/Hoopla possibility where they distance, link each other to other townies on the list and push those townies.

Outside of that, I have a hard time understanding GM's and MafiaR's POV because they both seem to think

I'm

partnered with Creature.

Finally, I think Creature hasn't been very involved lately and I want to see his POV of the situation.

I'm also interested in Jaack's and Arona's and maybe Cloud's thoughts on the matter. I'm not sure Creature is the way to go partly because all the people in my POE pool seem to be drawn to him. I'd rather build a wagon that me, Jaack, and Arona can get behind.

[Creature]

MariaR/me scumteam would mean I was flipflopping on my scumbuddy.

[Creature]

Also, I don't really want to eliminate possible scumteams unless I get a scumflip.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla and MariaR don't make sense as a team either.

I think I said it before, but I backtracked on that and a few others I didn't feel confident ruling out

[Raskolnikov]

Creature isn't scum. It doesn't look like cloud is either tbh.
Assuming that you could just lynch all of {GM, Me, Hoopla, Maria} with no problem.

I'm personally invested into seeing GM flip red but tbh this game is a lock unless people bring others into the lynchpool.