Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Raskolnikov]

I don't doubt my clears, but I will have to revisit my associations as I think I've ruled out too many.

[goodmorning]

Haven't actually done anything with this game. Maybe I'll have time today.

I'm going to chime in in a bit but in the meantime, does anyone want to comment on why I'm still alive? In fact, I'd like everyone's comments on that. I was obviously right about Sotty7 which means I'm very likely wrong about someone else. I want to hear thoughts on who that could be.

oh.

Vote: BV

Now I think about it, IAI kill suggests against maria-gm, as both are likely too lazy to masonhunt and IAI reads-only weren't threatening to that team.

IAI was tied pretty hard to Victor but I assumed they were both Scum so...

goodmorning

- Saying she wants to join the Sotty7 wagon over BBT's seemed unnecessary because she had been laying down the groundwork to push BBT anyways. Then there's the way Sotty7 reacted to her scumread by trying to placate her and make her see reason that I don't see as scumbuddy interaction. GM pushing in 588, Sotty7's response in 590, GM's 694, Sotty7's 795, GM's 811, Sotty7's 827 and GM's 884 are the back-and-forths I'm referring to. GM's basically going "you are scum but I'm not going get into why" and the gist of Sotty7's response is "please do tell me."

inb4 GM goes "but I totally would have pushed Sotty7 D1 if I was her partner and your reasons are rubbish." I'm just going to point out that I'm not going to call GM town because she seems allergic to that - let's just call her a cat in wolf's clothing.

I'm well-known for not bussing so I can't play the projected disagreement.

--

And now pushing massclaim? My vote is concrete.

(More seriously: I could maybe vote Creature too still & would probably be willing to deadline compromise on Cloud. That's it.)

--

Guys what are you doing we are not massclaiming til tomorrow

--

goodmorning - "Only scum is consistent, town will be all over the place no matter what"

that is not what i said at all

that is not it, at all.

^ this [cloud post] isn't scum

I kind of agree.

goodmorning was doing her usual thing of pushing unrealistic wagons by herself

thx hoopla

@GM, why did you vote for Rask when you did? You were reading him as town and Sotty7 as scum. That vote makes no sense to me and the reasoning was that you quoted Rask saying that he would lynch MariaR.

Because Maria is obvTown and I didn't like the way it looked like Rask was trying to make it a thing.

Was the context not clear?

--

damn, rask, back at it again with the confbias!

[Creature]

lol

If you say Rask is confbiasing, imagine you.

[Creature]

Maybe you should see if what Rask is saying is true, I have a lot of games you can check.

Not everyone can fake town meta.

[Creature]

so why isn't Maria your top suspect?

MariaR is bad.

[Creature]

Otherwise I wouldn't have coasted to MyLo in The Walking Dead Season Finale mafia.

[Creature]

He spends a lot of time aimlessly waffling with Maria while others try to determine the lynchpool and what is viable.

Keep saying I wasn't doing anything.

Spoiler:

Currently at this:

Raskolnikov

goodmorning

Hoopla

Jaack
MichelSableheart Creature
BlackVoid
VictorDeAngelo
CloudKicker

I Am Innocent
Sotty7
MariaR

What's your opinion on Hoopla?

Sotty, what's your opinion on Hoopla?

I am townreading Cloudkicker though

I don't think we should lynch PR claims.

I don't think scum would vote the tracker that just claimed.

Maybe town!Hoopla could've made 692, but I think Hoopla's staying too low right now.

like scum that don't want to be noticed.

Must've missed some posts.

[MariaR]

Otherwise I wouldn't have coasted to MyLo in The Walking Dead Season Finale mafia.

YO FFFF YOU I DIDN'T THINK BOTH THE TOP WAGONS ON DAY 1 WOULD BE SCUM -_-

[goodmorning]

Maybe you should see if what Rask is saying is true, I have a lot of games you can check.

Not everyone can fake town meta.

Cold meta is less than useless and self-meta is not reassuring in the slightest.

--

@Maria: That's why I don't like wagon analysis.

[Creature]

Assuming that every scum plays the same is worse.

[MariaR]

Maybe you should see if what Rask is saying is true, I have a lot of games you can check.

Not everyone can fake town meta.

Cold meta is less than useless and self-meta is not reassuring in the slightest.

--

@Maria: That's why I don't like wagon analysis.

>.> fair point

[CloudKicker]

@rask not claiming yet

[goodmorning]

Assuming that every scum plays the same is worse.

The only assumption I make about 100% of Scum players is that they're not morons.

[Jaack]

@rask not claiming yet

*Sigh*

You're at L-1, with multiple people off the wagon agreeing you're the best lynch of the day. Don't be a hypocrite and just claim already. Dragging it out isn't going to save you. If you try some PR claim at deadline to leave us scrambling for a lynch, know it's not going to work. We lynched a PR claim yesterday and it turned out better.

As far as creature goes, I kinda get the scum case on him, but at the same time I'm not feeling all that much scum-motivation from what he's doing. His general absense at the end of D2 makes it a bit harder to read, but I feel like it wouldn't be advantageous to scum to avoid the sotty lynch. Either try and stop it or bus for townpoints.

From sotty's point of view, she was townreading michel pretty clearly but scumreading creature. Not really feeling much there either.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.02

Raskolnikov (1)

CloudKicker ,

goodmorning (1)

Raskolnikov ,

Creature (1)

MariaR ,

BlackVoid (1)

goodmorning ,

CloudKicker (4)

Jaack , Creature , BlackVoid , aronagrundy L-1 ,

Not Voting (1)

Hoopla ,

Day three deadline is Thursday December 1, 12 AM PST. (expired on 2016-12-01 00:00:00)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[Hoopla]

No, it's a micro thing. Approach and conclusions.
I was I think the only person annoyed at the possibility of the d1 wagons being TvT. Because victor was town yet greyice started towntelling a bit.
Creature replaced in and started along the lines you'd expect, thought bbt/GI looked townish so looked at victor. But similar to me he came away town there too and ended up meh about it and looking at other people.
The list progression is pretty classic creature and 1604 is him in a nutshell from what I've experienced. You have to consider too why he'd do that maria questioning rather than what most people have been doing, it doesn't really read like buddying to me, and it's pretty much what I did my last game with her. And the hard defending thing he I thought about and just see him bring it up independently.
His reaction to specific things too. I start doubting someone, I read they then have a very good post, and then there's creature with "oh nice, guess they're town after all" and it's uncanny.

In general too he's more interested in clearing people than anything else which is a pro-town approach by nature. Though he was a little quick on the judgement today.

I don't really agree with your reasoning for eliminating him but also don't wish to continue this any further. I will say if he is such a concrete read, why am I just hearing about it now after probing for reasons, because I've never felt like you've expressed how town you view him. You seem to be under the impression that Creature is an obvious hivemind townread that didn't require much explanation or convincing of others, and I haven't seen you volunteering to dissuade those pushing the Creature wagon today, which I'd expect if this read is genuine. He is one of the most realistic alternate candidates, so why no chime in 'bout that?

[Hoopla]

I'm going to chime in in a bit but in the meantime, does anyone want to comment on why I'm still alive? In fact, I'd like everyone's comments on that. I was obviously right about Sotty7 which means I'm very likely wrong about someone else. I want to hear thoughts on who that could be.

oh.

Vote: BV

I agree this is an uncharacteristically airy remark from BV (BV; you ain't dead because twoface was very town D1 and we have masons soaking up NK's now), but why is it scummy?

[Hoopla]

While those questions are dangling, I think it's about time to readdress the cloud surrounding... Cloud. Simply put, he has to be one of the lynches before lylo. I see the game going one of two ways here:

- The town hivemind has correctly zeroed in Cloud via PoE (and some Sotty interactions); he's the obvious candidate, and this game is shaping up to be wrapped up neatly by PoE before lylo. Mason games (especially when the mason roles go to players that would ordinarily be lynched/not NK'ed without that claim quite often get well solved by PoE as better/townier looking players live deeper in the game than usual).
- The town hivemind has incorrectly zeroed in on Cloud and this game isn't as solved as we have been lead to believe today, and everyone's reads need a massive reevaluation because I feel like the PoE well might be poisoned if Cloud is wrong.

There are too many universes where Cloud is scum and an easy win is around the corner, sooooo I think playing the percentages and lynching Cloud today is wisest, and I'll let go of Creature and the conspiracy theories dogging my subconscious for now.

So, Cloud. Consider this intent. Claim in your next post.

[goodmorning]

I'm going to chime in in a bit but in the meantime, does anyone want to comment on why I'm still alive? In fact, I'd like everyone's comments on that. I was obviously right about Sotty7 which means I'm very likely wrong about someone else. I want to hear thoughts on who that could be.

oh.

Vote: BV

I agree this is an uncharacteristically airy remark from BV (BV; you ain't dead because twoface was very town D1 and we have masons soaking up NK's now), but why is it scummy?

It's the same kind of "this player is fairly new" scumtell as the "oh noes we lynched a PR D1" tell, if that makes sense?

Like, a kinda-sorta fake towntell?

[goodmorning]

Anyway it was the massclaim push that was the most concerning.

Reminded me a lot of Rainbowdash in some Open a while back.

[BlackVoid]

This post gave me the heebie-jeebies though, and makes Cloud my top suspect atm:

And you sotty, i dont want to be a dick to you but you should really fucking step up your game if ur real, like now

"goddamn it Sotty, we really can't afford you to get lynched right now, step up your game so I don't have to suspect your claim more any more"

Since mafia can talk during the day, why wouldn't he just say this in his private chat? This is only a tell if communication between the mafia is restricted.

[CloudKicker]

@ ima claim pr with an affix for now, i dont want to full claim as of yet cause im gathering read, i will fully claim with reasonable time before deadline i promise

[CloudKicker]

and theres a very obvious reason why i am not claiming

[CloudKicker]

so please unvote

[CloudKicker]

anyone quickhammering me after that claim should be considered a scumclaim