Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Raskolnikov]

I doubt any of my scumreads are PRs, tbh.

[BlackVoid]

Maybe not. But we're at the point where we can sit and analyze interactions and we have a lot of analytical players. Knowing the layout of the game will help a bunch. I'm pretty sure scum have a rolecop-type role which can check more claims the more nights we wait. They have Hoopla's VT claim and probably know Jaack's role. I think it's time we put everything on the table so we have all the info too

We could do it through consensus. Have the more widely scumread people like Creature and Cloud go first.

[Raskolnikov]

If we do massclaim I don't think it should be popcorn (someone like maria has wacko reads but could still be town), but rather decided by the common townreads making a list.
Or would just get mason to dictate it, if they're up for it.

[MariaR]

Okay wtf I take offense to that remark ;-;

[Jaack]

I think we should just lynch cloud and massclaim D4, but I'm not terribly opposed to doing it today. As long as cloud goes first, I have no objections.

[MariaR]

Why are all my tr's scumreads this is AWFUL...but then again I said this about Scoty so

hides

[BlackVoid]

I feel rather strongly about doing it today but yeah, let's make Cloud claim first. I think the night kill is pretty much set in stone since we have a confirmed Mason so I don't think delaying it a day gives us much more info.

[Jaack]

Fair enough.

As far as order goes, I'm fine with ceding the final say to arona as long as cloud is first to go. Or we can talk it over.

[CloudKicker]

im not claiming, i dont really give ashit about the massclaim thingy, im tote town and this is completly stupid. @jack im obvious a good lynch candidate, maybe cause i hard defended scum? while everyone forget that idid based on mechanics and not reads like maria did

[Creature]

I doubt any of my scumreads are PRs, tbh.

MariaR - "This is not how town Creature plays, even though he changes his townplay every game and I haven't checked his scumplay"
goodmorning - "Only scum is consistent, town will be all over the place no matter what"
Hoopla - "I'd rather lynch between the players outside the Sotty wagon"

[Creature]

Have the more widely scumread people like Creature

Mean't to quote this.

[Creature]

Popcorn massclaim?

[Creature]

Nvm.

[Creature]

If we do massclaim I don't think it should be popcorn (someone like maria has wacko reads but could still be town), but rather decided by the common townreads making a list.
Or would just get mason to dictate it, if they're up for it.

I nominated Jaack, BlackVoid and aronagrundy.

[Creature]

*nominate

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Cloudkicker

If he really wants to force us to go through the process of bringing him to L-1 with intent before he claims, that's fine.

How does everyone feel about an order like this?

Cloud
Creature
MafiaR
Rask
GM
Jaack
BV

We can keep tweaking it until people are okay with the concensus. Obviously I exclude Hoopla (VT) and Arona (Mason) from the list.

[Jaack]

im not claiming, i dont really give ashit about the massclaim thingy, im tote town and this is completly stupid. @jack im obvious a good lynch candidate, maybe cause i hard defended scum? while everyone forget that idid based on mechanics and not reads like maria did

The fact that you did it based on mechanics over reads is actually worse for you. Maria can very easily just be misguided town. You were unwilling to outright sotty but you were also unwilling to lynch her.

How does everyone feel about an order like this?

Cloud
Creature
MafiaR
Rask
GM
Jaack
BV

We can keep tweaking it until people are okay with the concensus. Obviously I exclude Hoopla (VT) and Arona (Mason) from the list.

That's pretty much fine, although I think it might make more sense for me to claim last since Maria and Cloud still seem to have some suspicion of you, while everyone seems to agree I'm town. It doesn't matter all that much since we're both town, so I'll just let arona make the final choice.

[Hoopla]

Alright, back online now.

I'm on the fence about whether massclaim will be beneficial today. If we have a protective role or a Watcher, then it's much better if we keep that hidden until tomorrow, in my opinion. In all the 3:10 games since Mini 1105, setups with masons have had a protective role or Watcher 43% of the time, so we are incurring risk by outing such a role. I'm not going to pontificate too deeply about what I expect from scum in a massclaim situation, as there might be some situations where I can pseudo-clear a townie or a scumbag implicates themself.

We absolutely need to massclaim before mylo/lylo, but since we lynched scum yesterday, I think there might be more value in waiting until tomorrow. Preventing a kill tonight forces scum to try and find the source the following night or else risking giving the town an extra mislynch.

[Creature]

Maybe have just the lynch candidates to claim?

[Hoopla]

Upon a reread I found myself continually gravitating to conspiracy theories with regards to some of my strong town reads. I know BlackVoid and Raskol have been the key players entertaining associations, so I want them to tell me why Jack-scum doesn't make sense now? He was very influential in getting the successful Sotty wagon going yesterday, after vote-parking on her most of D1. But was there anything else specifically?

Looking back, I don't think Sotty was all that scummy, and I find it strange her lynch was so heavily talked about even when other stuff was happening. It seems like the whispers for Sotty were artificially inflated with scum help and I think there may have been some heavy bussing of her throughout D1 keeping her in the limelight more than her play warranted.

Raskol and Sotty had some colourful dialogue on D1 and on first glance that didn't look like scumtheatre, but Rask more than once uses his influence as a widely town viewed player to start linking players to Sotty. A couple of examples:

Don't feel like hoopla is pressuring sotty at all despite the vote.

I have a new conspiracy theory that involves BBT and sotty distancing while voting other people.

For BBT the maria scumread is for being useless/idling and relative to the sotty read you should feel the latter is stronger, as it's sotty pushing BBT for what bbt says is a very shallow way.
Sotty has what sounds like a strong bbt read too but wants to lynch twoface for something that sounds a lot weaker and kind of lame. Earlier pushing of each other is reasonable to assume wouldn't go that far, given weak reasonings given at that point. Sotty asking me if his bbt meta was outdated possibly expected me to say it was.

~~

Idk, maybe I'm getting sucked into the allure of Sotty's scumplay and am giving her too much credit for being able to orchestrate how the town will perceive her interactions with her partners. Certainly a large part of what makes distancing look convincing is that it both scumbags are playing their part, not just Sotty -- and Jack and Rask have both told convincing stories with regards to Sotty if one of them is indeed scum. I think I just find it weird that so many people were so confident in sitting on Sotty votes for ages on D1 (TwoFace, Jack, Rask) and with good conviction. It seems suspicious that all these townies were on the same wavelength and nailed her so early in the game. I want to assume it's too coincidental and one is scum who knows the truth.

Weirdly, I didn't rediscover any paranoia for BlackVoid and am starting to not be repelled by his reads so much any more.

Well, this post went off tangent in a billion directions and I don't know where to go with it now or if it's even worthy of reading, so I'll just end it here still confused and kind of hungry.

[Hoopla]

^Having said all that, it really does seem like Cloud is the obvious choice today. I think I'm just scared the game is PoE'ing too easy and somewhere along the line my eliminations must be wrong, and the obvious candidate today is wrong. Damn my stupid brain.

[Hoopla]

I don't know maria well enough to know if she would intentionally subvert site meta like that, in our last game she seemed pretty bus happy.

Thinking about Maria more: I think she shoots from the hip a lot and doesn't layout and prepare her stances as much as analytical players, and I consider subverting site meta and hard-defending a buddy to be a conscious, planned decision. You don't just hard-defend a buddy instinctively... I think.

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla, as far as MariaR is concerned, here's what we do know for sure:

On D1, Sotty7 and BBT/GreyICE were competing wagons for a pretty long time. MariaR never took a stand on them. ISO the mod from around here and keep scrolling down until 825. The Sotty7 wagon was always present, never with less than three votes. Then keep reading MariaR's posts from 825 (pages 34 and 35). MariaR says she'd lynch Victor, Jaack, or me. Then she throws a lot of black smoke around the Grey wagon (see 850). TwoFace tells her that Sotty7 was the counterwagon and that it stalled. She ignores him completely. Then says that the Jaack wagon is not going anywhere and jumps onto Victor. She hated the GreyICE wagon but was ignoring Sotty7 for whatever reason.

As far as hard-defending a partner is concerned, when someone is calling the team, the instinctive response is to attack that person because bussing won't get you any cred. So, when I started D2 saying that Sotty7 and MariaR were scum together, she reacted by pushing me.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla, as far as MariaR is concerned, here's what we do know for sure:

On D1, Sotty7 and BBT/GreyICE were competing wagons for a pretty long time. MariaR never took a stand on them. ISO the mod from around here and keep scrolling down until 825. The Sotty7 wagon was always present, never with less than three votes. Then keep reading MariaR's posts from 825 (pages 34 and 35). MariaR says she'd lynch Victor, Jaack, or me. Then she throws a lot of black smoke around the Grey wagon (see 850). TwoFace tells her that Sotty7 was the counterwagon and that it stalled. She ignores him completely. Then says that the Jaack wagon is not going anywhere and jumps onto Victor. She hated the GreyICE wagon but was ignoring Sotty7 for whatever reason.

As far as hard-defending a partner is concerned, when someone is calling the team, the instinctive response is to attack that person because bussing won't get you any cred. So, when I started D2 saying that Sotty7 and MariaR were scum together, she reacted by pushing me.

Actually pretty good points re: her play around the end of D1. I think I must have been skimming over her posts then as I'd filed her away as town.

As for the second point, I still don't think hard-defending is the expected, instinctive play from Maria. They killed off Sotty's biggest challenger N1 and then still had to deal with you and others coming after Sotty. Seeing all this heat on Sotty would influence a lot of scum to bus, I think, or at least start "thinking" about that slot and chiming in for fear of being linked. Why hard-defend and link yourself super obviously? Isn't it more likely she's town and just has a lot of zany reads that she

really

believes, but is just wrong?

[Raskolnikov]

I'd agree that the hard defending would have had to be planned. In which case it'd probably have been with the NK choice, given the particular logic used that it was too obvious a kill implicating sotty to actually be true, and it would've been pretty clear when making that how it would look.
In that same scenario though the sotty lynch going through isn't expected (jaack got that done, and I think jaack-maria interactions are too genuine) for what that's worth.