The biggest thing here is that if ironstove is town one or more of his reads are likely off. (For the moment I'm assuming ironstove is town and generally a meanie when he doesn't get his way.) Generally the closer to lylo it gets the more push there is on someone with a right read. Not enough to get them lynched but enough to generate suspicion. Bji is what I would expect of a vote count of a townie whose reads who are more accurate than ironstoves. Someone has to push him and it has to be someone who would likely exist into the next day. Since bji and iron both have the same scum team likely only one of those is right.
This means likely only one of Nero and Penguin is scum and the other is town. Of the two, ironstove is much more adamant that Nero is scum. Both Nero and Penguin attacked bji in the mid 1000s range. However Penguin was the one who was caught deliberately lying about the state of the policy lynch
1089 This would make bji the counter wagon for Thor and make him town.
However scum with day talk active don't all hop on bji and with the encryptor found that just doesn't happen. Especially when Thor only had two votes
1100. Ironstove (assuming stove is town for the moment) seems to have the right idea in asking why bji was being lynched.
Then Lowell hops on and seems to be the "don't lynch the townie vote" to try to give some legitimacy while pushing a mislynch in Saru. In
1105 He says the "bji" slot is basically town. Then why does Lowell have it in wiggle now. Not a single post addresses them in particular nor is their "penguin" read supported. This looks like more he can see where the wind is turning towards his buddy being lynched and wants to be on it "early".
In contrast Nero in post
92 looks like a genuine list of read mistakes. Scum generally "spread out their fake reads". So as if they are ever used they can justify scumreading one of the scum people. In this case it's just so bad it has to be town. Mainly Nero's RVS is way too antagonistic to be his scum game. He's almost bragging.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8008985
Here he just says you are lying. A lot less antagonistic. (Granted it's a replace in and not a direct copy). When Nero is town, he is antagonistic. Furthermore Nero in
796 wouldn't ask ironstove to stop role fishing. It would be too much scum interests here.
Furthermore, Thor's vote at the start of day two was Karnos sitting. This as much as an ironstove+Karnos team makes sense to me in gut Thor and Karnos were at each others throats. I pressured him at first to see if he was replicating 1800 a bit but how Karnos has acted after the innocent child reveal makes it clear it's not 1800. He'd have been more "panicky" IMHO. Even in 1800 some of his posts had that "urgency" do it now bit. Either Thor gave him some meta tips or Karnos is probably town as much as that set up reminded me of 1800. I think I'm just biased to reading Karnos as scum. (With a large caveat of if Penguin Power flips town Then look at Karnos again with a vengeance.)
This also makes sense with myself, Saru, and Nero being the only ones off of Thor at the end of D2 (Assuming Penguin+Lowell+Thor) Saru would be AFK a lot toward the day end. I and Saru townread Thor (incorrectly) and Nero was the head of the bji wagon. If Nero was going to let Thor be no lynched it's a hell of a lot worse to post and not lynch at the end of the day. It should throw suspicion on him. Instead scum are "pocketing" Nero since someone else suspects Nero there is no reason to push there.
Now take a look at 3.3 PenguinPower was on it early after not being on it D2. It's "Damn it Thor. You fooled me." This reeks of inevitability. Furthermore in combination with his setup spec post about a rolecop is highly unlikely. Scum if they had one would have used it also on FA to see if he was okay to let go and mislynch. Instead they roleblocked, claimed his role, and killed him. It shows that penguin power isn't investing thoughts into his theory when FA confirmed their was a roleblocker.
Now furthermore, take a look at the opening after Thor was lynched. It was determined that I was the threat. In
1379 Lowell leaves off pushing Saru. Both he and I had the same explanation as to why we didn't vote Thor. However I was the more popular one. I intentionally revealed at L -2 because scum wouldn't want to be at the end of the wagon that was forming on me. There was an intentional plot to get me mislynched of which Thor would have suggested in night chat. Thor knows I am active crumber (see Wake's mafia) of which I have played with his scum meta (shame on me again for not recognizing it but kudos to him for altering it) and probably found it as soon as I replaced in and asked Lowell and Penguin Power to push. Between his inconsistency when Lowell should have been pushing Saru but instead pushes me means he is looking for an active mislynch and doesn't use his limited posts to actually hunt.
Now examine the Arona kill. This one directly leads to Penguin Power OR Saru. However Penguin didn't even try to think about who killed the townies and why. Half of the game is who posts what as scumreads and the other half is who dies. If you aren't focusing on who dies and why there's something wrong.
FA was a claimed PR and then GreyICE died. That's not indicative. What is indicative is that FA was roleblocked. It tells us that one of two things happened:
At that point scum had no idea of the other PRs and roleblocked and attempted to kill him
OR
Scum roleblocked FA and killed someone else and GreyICE either died as a result of being targeted or choosing that target.
There is also the possibility that Saru scum killed both GreyICE and Arona. Simply for suspecting him. Then the only potential partners for Saru in this case would be Penguin Power or ironstove. Karnos, bji, and Lowell wouldn't use their posts to townread Saru. (Note:Lowell's townread of Saru is unexplained push that.) Either way by lynching Power Penguin we take out a lot. Too much townreading would indicate a "WHY AREN'T YOU DEAD?" question.
It is also fishy as fuck that three people who are widely townread have the exact same scum team. (Karnos, bji, and stove) Note that Karnos again was floated around today. Similar to the bji argument Karnos is actually a threat because of where he is instinctively placing Lowell. The only way I see Karnos scum is with ironstove and in that case, we're fucked because ironstove could claim scum (like he did and I think I figured out why but I'm actually not saying why)
