Open 44 - Twofold Mafia: GAME OVER! before 506

[Claus]

Hmmmm.

I don't really like Dasquian's analysis. He makes a big case of Sikario being the doc - but I don't think anyone here has seriously disputed his claim - he is preaching to the choir.

His list is too tentative. There is one guy who he says is town "because he is not townie, or scummy". Then there is this guy who is scum "because he is posting solidly, but I get a bad feeling about him".

I got a bad feeling about Dasquian's read. He seems to want to show himself as town, without really committing to a position.

I'm still happier with my vote on Aioque now. But don't be sad: I'll slap a

FOS: Dasquian

so you are the next in line


PS: That's the third or fourth time people in this site say that my avatar is scary. Ho Ho Ho.

[shaft.ed]

OK my list is as follows:

Sikario, I have to say I believe his Doc claim less today than yesterday, but it's still a death claim and thus not likely a scum tactic. Not worth a lynch, but may make room for 5 protown players and not 4 in subsequent analysis. I won't include him further as he should not be a lynch candidate today.

pwayne66:

I feel his playstyle is similar to mine earlier in the game. He is quick to point out flaws in people's arguments. I do feel he is being rather non-commital in regards to actions against people.

Tylerj:

I thought he was town being run up by scum during his wagon. I am getting fairly solid town vibes from him and do not suspect him as scum at this moment. Also should be noted that four surviving players were a part of his wagon: Rishi, Dasq,

Claus

and

Sikario

.

italics indicates subsequent replacement

Dasquian:

I have some issues with Dasq's play. He was pretty adamant in getting a claim out of Tyler, but never made a case beyond "you just seem scummy." He also had an odd vote yesterday during the Rishi/Korlash exchange. He called them out for distancing, and then voted for Korlash. However, Korlash had no votes on him while Rishi did and it was clear that a wagon would not form in time. In addition, he had previously stated that he found Rishi scummy. It seemed odd to me that he would place his vote on Korlash if they were equally guilty of distancing and he had already mentioned suspicion of Rishi.

Claus:

GH posted very minimally but decently enough. Claus is pretty similar although today has not really gotten going. I have the worst read on him right now. Can't say one way or another.

aioqwe:

Felt he was too lurky early on. That's picked up a bit. Really didn't like his lordy vote especially given his very careful play preceeding. Not liking him much.

Rishi:

Every time I read Rishi first pass it makes me feel he is scum. But then when I reread his comments seem innocent enough. I really don't know why this is. I'm leaning him scummy but as I have been saying all day I can't really put a case up against him so I don't think I'll push his lynch today unless I notice something.

Tobiassen:

I think Tobiassen was the better choice for yesterday, but I guess him being active made him look more desirable to keep around than lordy. He seems to be trying to add content today, but some of his early actions are classic scum tells.

So if I had to make a scum/town list it'd be:
4 town: me, pwayne, TylerJ and either Claus/Rishi for different reasons.
4 scum: Claus/Rishi, Dasq, aioqwe, Tobiassen (most scummy to the right).

Also thinking further about the mass claim the most likely result would be having four cops and four townies claimed thus the scum keep their likelihood of being hit even. Only good thing about this is that once the scum find the cops they can't kill them because they will out themselves once the cops are killed off. However, this means they are free to take out one cop without much penalty. Need to run some numbers one such a scenario, but if we do mass claim and make a mistake today I think it will be very dangerous getting towards the end game.

[TylerJ]

^^^ That really helped me out. When you seperated possible town and possible scum into different groups I noticed something interesting.

Whith pauses of activity in the game and many replacements, I have kind of lost my direction and past convictions. But I noticed that everyone that you had in the scum group I have found suspicious one time or another except perhaps aioqwe. Everyone in the town group, other than rishi, I haven't found anyone else in that group suspicious.

[Rishi]

All right... dividing people into town and scum.

There are four other pro-town players, including myself. Briefly, on each.

Sikario8 - I believe his claim. He may be looking scummy because he's not a great player, but that doesn't mean that he (or rather Panzerjager) was lying.

Now it gets hard. This is from least scummy to most scummy:

Tobiassen - I know that he's annoying and not helpful, but I am feeling that he is strongly town. I have played in a few newbie games, and I know how really bad players act as scum. I just don't see it. I think people might be piling on him because he's an easy target.

Claus - I wasn't all that suspicious of groinhammer. I know that other people suspected him but I don't see it. Claus hasn't contributed much in this game. Based on other games, he is generally more aggressive than here. However, I equate this with him still trying to get up to speed in this game rather than a playstyle difference.

shaft.ed - Also seems genuine to me. Has made some good suggestions. He seems conflicted about things, which feels pro-town to me. (If he was scum, he'd be putting on more of an act.) But, he's a smart player, which means that there's a greater chance that he's fooling us.

Now for the scum, least to most:

Dasquian - I think he generally is helpful and is genuinely trying to push the game along. And I don't know if he's scum, but I've run out of townies. Again, a smart player. We don't know if he's fooling us. The only reason he lands here instead of shaft.ed is that, while shaft.ed is always helpful, Dasquian wavers.

pwayne66 - I don't have a strong scum read on him, but again I have run out of townies. He's more hesitant to give his opinion on things, so he lands here. I really equate shaft.ed, Dasquian and pwayne66 at about equal. I realize, by my estimation, that two of them are likely scum but I would hate to get rid of any of them for now.

aioqwe - He's been better today than yesterday but he's still hanging back a little.

TylerJ - Jumps to the top of the scum list again. After things have calmed down for him, he pulls his same shenanigans: following people and pretending to contribute without saying anything.

Even though I had to divide people into teams, I must say that the people I'm willing to vote for are aioqwe and TylerJ. I just don't feel like I know enough for the others.

And I know that people disagree on my take on Tobiassen. I know he's frustrating to play with, and I wonder if that's coloring people's impressions.

[Dasquian]

I don't think he's frustrating to play with. I just think he's obviously a bit new to this game and people are assuming that naivety implies innocence under fire. The only thing I think it does imply is a lack of general subtlety or the kind of forethought that comes with experience and as such, when he looks scummy, I think the obvious conclusion is almost certainly the correct one. If people want to point to the various scum-tells he's made and explain why they're newbie

town

errors, I would encourage that line of discussion.

Like I say: sometimes rookie players are going to get a scum role. There's no reason they'd be any less clumsy in that role than they would as town.

[Rishi]

I would be happy to point out why I think Tobiassen is town if people would point to his scummy actions. If you want to refer me to a post that enumerated his scumtells that I happened to miss, that's fine too. But no one has made a case against him that I've seen.

[Dasquian]

Well, you're right, there hasn't been a comprehensive list of points (though do check my attack in post 638), so here's one:

- Max's legacy. Max was scummy! He lurked and posted minimally, even when he did show up. This shouldn't be forgotten.
- Low signal:noise ratio in his posts. It took him a fair while after replacing to actually post anything that could genuinely be held as a relevant opinion to the game. He is, however, posting a lot of irrelevant gumpf. The relevance of this is that if you strip away the gumpf, he's quite a lurker.
- A lot of indecisiveness (eg 598) within this sea of irrelevance. Actually, 598 got him a vote from shaft.ed which he responded to with an OMGUS vote and a "ha ha playin' it cool" reaction, it's worth a reread.
- A string of nonsensical actions such as voting the claimed doctor and voting himself. Granted, these aren't scumtells as such, but certainly don't play to his use as a town player either.
- A really weird start to D2. This has already been mentioned, but I too found his first two posts out of the gates on D2 to be not only self-contradictory, but extremely scummy on their own merits. They both look like forced "Oh me oh my, isn't this confusing!" scum posts.
- Into D2, he then casts doubt on Sik's doc claim (without explaining it), then attacks Sik for his "poor doctoring skills" (ie, there were two kills).

What do I think his game is? As I've said, I think he's newbie scum. I think D1 was him "trying to blend in", and I think D2 he's got some hints of an agenda, trying to play the lack of a doc-save against Sikario, and again, trying to look like a townie in the dark.

[shaft.ed]

I would be happy to point out why I think Tobiassen is town if people would point to his scummy actions. If you want to refer me to a post that enumerated his scumtells that I happened to miss, that's fine too. But no one has made a case against him that I've seen.

I think Dasquain has already covered it, but I'll look back today for more inconsistancies of Tob if there's anything Dasq missed.

For an older analysis (mostly Max) here's my read from yesterday:

Max/Tobiassen:

Max lurked a lot and conflicted his statements a few times. Didn't like his play. In his first substance containing post he attacks CA for using bad logic to attack me and then himself attacks me for playstyle for "playstyle" (bad logic much?)*. He maintains his suspicions on me without ever substantiating anything, which I didn't like and he never really addressed. Has a quick suspicion of ckillor. Then FoS's panzer before leaving. Note that he never voted for anybody after the random stage, and his accusations are really all over the place. I don't know how he didn't get more attention before, but I guess the Tyler and Panzer incidents were distracting people. Tobiassen hasn't really added anything but soft core elf porn sicne replacing in for Max. So I'd really really like to here your thoughts on Max's play. But for now, I'd have to say Max is the scummiest player of my reread.

75

*

this section edited for coherence

I think I understand the desire to write Tob off as a newbie, but as I've stated before I've been burnt a couple times already by erratic newb scum.


One thing I find interesting about Rishi's read is his overabundance of pro-town players, having to add two players into the scum group that he finds to be townish. It might be a harsh interpretation, but if he has too many townies, perhaps it's because he is starting with one too few scum, that being himself.

[Rishi]

I think Dasquian has some good points. I'll look over those posts that you alluded to at some point (busy weekend coming up) and let you know what I think.

shaft.ed - I think I come up with an abudance of pro-town players because I think some of the scum are playing extremely well.

[somestrangeflea]

Votecount. Isn't it though?

Tobiassen - 2 (Sikario8, Dasquian)
aioqwe - 1 (Claus)

Not Voting - pwayne66, TylerJ, aioqwe, Rishi, Tobiassen, shaft.ed

9 alive, 5 to lynch

[TylerJ]

I realize I have been agreeing a lot with people in this game. Rishi thinks I am scummy because of it. But I haven't started agreeing with people so blatantly without scum hunting until now. For a few reasons. I have a lot to do, all of the replacements confused me and I am finally getting my grip on the game again, and because I have been to lazy to do a reread.

The reason I agree isn't because I am scum, but because I just agree. In fact, if you think I am agreeing to stay unnoticed, perhaps you should look up my statement about me finding all of the people shafted suspected suspicious as well. Before he ever made that post, I had at one time or another found each on except aquiowe suspicious.

Now, next thing on my mind. I realize that this is purely gut feeling and thus has little relevence to it, but I can't help shake the idea that rishi and tob are scum buddies. Rishi, the way you adressed tob in your analysis hit my scumdar, And then, as I read further down, you continued to bring up tob, as if you were trying mask and cover up you two.

[shaft.ed]

Now, next thing on my mind. I realize that this is purely gut feeling and thus has little relevence to it, but I can't help shake the idea that rishi and tob are scum buddies. Rishi, the way you adressed tob in your analysis hit my scumdar, And then, as I read further down, you continued to bring up tob, as if you were trying mask and cover up you two.

I agree with this. Rishi has been making quite an effort to diffuse Tob's play. I feel it has been a bit beyond normal defense.

[pwayne66]

Quick list, RL is kicking my ass...

MOST LIKELY SCUM on top
LEAST LIKELY SCUM on bottom


tylarj
sikario
tobiassen
shaft
----------------------------------
aioqwe
rishi
dasq
claus

As far as lynching the claimed doc goes (not that I think it is to that yet), isn't he just as likely to save scum as he is to save a townie?

[Rishi]

So any time a player defends another player, it's automatically scummy? Just because I put Tobiassen at the top of my "least scummy" list it goes beyond a normal defense? Someone has to be at the top.

[shaft.ed]

So any time a player defends another player, it's automatically scummy? Just because I put Tobiassen at the top of my "least scummy" list it goes beyond a normal defense? Someone has to be at the top.

It does when I consider Tobi to be scummy. Obviously, taken in isolation, I would rather lynch Tobi before you. I just have noted many occasions now where you are defending him. It's more the quantity than the quality.

[shaft.ed]

As far as lynching the claimed doc goes (not that I think it is to that yet), isn't he just as likely to save scum as he is to save a townie?

That may work for a single night, but what about after a scum lynch or a day or two down the road? I'm surprised you would make such a clearly anti-town statement.

[pwayne66]

I'm surprised you would make such a clearly anti-town statement.

Noted.

[Claus]

Hey!

Claus - I wasn't all that suspicious of groinhammer. I know that other people suspected him but I don't see it. Claus hasn't contributed much in this game. Based on other games, he is generally more aggressive than here. However, I equate this with him still trying to get up to speed in this game rather than a playstyle difference.

Thanks for "prodding" me, but, TBH, I'm not even trying to get up to speed with this game. Yet. I don't have time this week to plow through 32 pages of D1 - like I said, I just re-read the posts of those in the bandwagon. But I'm carefully listening to the D2 conversation.

If it bothers you, I promise I'll do a read of the whole game next week, after some work-related stuff clears up.

<3

[TylerJ]

pwayne is it too much to ask why you find me suspicious?

Crap, here I am agreeing again. Your statement about the doc is really weird. Even though logically I see your point, he isn't a hinderance to the town. It would be a major hinderance to vote a protown player rather than scum.

[aioqwe]

quick note I might be able to come on again to post more detailed stuff... I'm running on like 6hrs sleep per day and had a math test, physics and mandarin quiz, and a presentation in English, and I'm taking the SAT tom, week after next is exam week too...

I find "agreeing" to be kind of a weird argument. It's scummy in that a person is trying to stay under the radar. However, if a good argument is made than people will probably agree in some way. Having 9 significantly different takes would probably be quite rare and having someone "agree" with another person doesn't seem too odd...

The whole listing players as scum/town seems like a good idea but I find myself listening too much to others opinions and not going back for a re-read...

I'll put together a list with explanations ASAP

[Rishi]

So any time a player defends another player, it's automatically scummy? Just because I put Tobiassen at the top of my "least scummy" list it goes beyond a normal defense? Someone has to be at the top.

It does when I consider Tobi to be scummy. Obviously, taken in isolation, I would rather lynch Tobi before you. I just have noted many occasions now where you are defending him. It's more the quantity than the quality.

Okay. Go ahead and note those occasions for everyone.

[shaft.ed]

Okay. Go ahead and note those occasions for everyone.

OK full detailed list of Max/Tobi:Rishi links

First link:

Tyler -- You never responded to these points by Max. You're leaving your options open by calling everyone and everything scummy.

Uses Max's argument to get Tyler to post a list of players he sees as town, and goes after Tyler for not doing so.

I find Max the most suspicious, but I won't vote for him just yet.

unvote. FoS: Max

What good does an FoS do at this point? Max has no votes on him and there's no danger of him being immediately lynched.

I often don't like the FoS at this stage of the game. It's too wishy-washy.

Here he is attacking Tyler for going after Max. Granted his explanation is sound in asking why an FoS and not a vote. ChronX/lordy later calls him out on this.
Here is his reply to the ChronX/lordy statement:

*imagines what Rishi would have said if Tyler had voted for Max.

or if he had voted for someone else.*

If he had voted for Max, I would probably say nothing. I'm not super-suspicious of Max, but I understand why someone would vote for him.

Note that it is again slightly protective of Max.

Rishi's first assessment of Tobi's play "style"

I don't like the way that Tobiassen is acting. That "clueless newbie" thing is usually a ploy, in my experience. However, I read some of the other game that Tobiassen was in and he didn't play much better. By the way, Tobiassen, I would strongly recommend playing a newbie game.

Seems fair enough.

Not directly related but:

I'm baffled why Tobiassen would vote for someone who most of us agree is probably the doctor.

I still can't tell if he's really clueless or just pretending to be clueless. His vote is harmless for now, but I would hate to have him alive in an endgame situation.

I also don't like how TylerJ just reiterated other people's opinions and made an opportunistic vote on lordy.

Gah...

so much scummy behavior and only one vote

. I hate to not take a definitive stance, but I am going to hold my vote and see how this develops. I also don't want lordy to get a couple more quick votes.

Unvote

(bolding mine) Note how he lists two non-lordy players and says so much scummy behavior and keep in mind where his vote ultimately ended up. Also interesting that at this time he is lumping Tobi's play with Tylers as scummy.

Now shifting to a more 'harmless' viewpoint

I still don't know what to do about Tobiassen. He is a wild card, but he seems harmless to me.

Mild instruction:

How to make yourself not worthless:
Post less. Say more.

Outright defending against Dasquain's questions:

Does that mean that you think Tobiassen is more likely to be town than scum? If so, why?

I do. He's playing like a clueless newbie. If he was a clueless scum newbie, he'd be clueless while following other people's suspicions and voting for the person most likely to get lynched (in this case, lordy).

More guidance:

hmm, who said that sikario8 is the doc?

the mod or was it just a vibe?

Fine Dasq, You want a claim. I'm doctor and I'm dead tonight. There is no day 2. And GH and Chronx are scum. And Dasq is probably too but I'm not positive.

Sikario8 replaces Panzerjager. There has been no counterclaim and so we believe the claim.

By the way, didn't you already know that Sikario8 was the doc? To wit:

damn, gl Korlash. rereading this is a mess.
I gave up and voted for ze doctor ^^,

and btw, i dont think Alaska is a real place.

Again. Post less. Say more. I think you should try to restrict yourself to one post a day. Believe me, it would help you out a great deal.

Interesting to note here that it seems as though Rishi is calling out Tobi for pretending not to know who the Doc was. However, a closer read to Tobi's post shows he knew who was supposed to be the Doc but didn't seem to remember why so this could be false distancing.

Indirect reasoning for his wanting to lynch lordy vs. Tobi. Note that he never really explains his lordy revote.

And, if we're going to deadline lynch, I'd rather lynch a lurker-ish player than an active one.

Here he feeds into Tobi's question, could be interpretated as an attempt to draw attention away from Tobi's conflicting JDodge statements:

i where certain JDodge where a scum,
dont look like good mafia tacs in my eyes, to kill some scummy looking people i mean.

This isn't a normal setup, though. If the Mafia thought JDodge looked scummy, maybe they killed him hoping to take out someone from the other Mafia team. Remember, they need to eliminate both the townies and the other Mafia team to win.

Latest assessment of Tobi:

Tobiassen - I know that he's annoying and not helpful, but I am feeling that he is strongly town. I have played in a few newbie games, and I know how really bad players act as scum. I just don't see it. I think people might be piling on him because he's an easy target.

This one was overboard in my opinion (bolding mine):

I would be happy to point out why I think Tobiassen is town if people would point to his scummy actions

. If you want to refer me to a post that enumerated his scumtells that I happened to miss, that's fine too. But no one has made a case against him that I've seen.

He's going to write Tobi's defense for him now?


To me this seems like a pretty strong link. It's also interesting that he would take such a contrasting stance to Tyler who was also called a newbish player that was actually bandwagoned (which included Rishi). But when it comes to Tobi who is actually dropping scum tells, he gets defensive even though the most votes Tobi has ever had on him is two (maybe three if you count his self vote).

I also think rereading Rishi (again) has let me notice a few scummy trends piling up.
-His contrasting stance on Tyler and Tobi
-His unexplained lordy vote and involvement on three wagons against this player.
-His complete anti-town stance on Doc counterclaiming at the end of yesterday.
-And finally I had forgotten about his touchiness following this interaction with me yesterday:

I just wanted to say that I found Rishi's assessments a bit off, and will address that with my next contentful post.

This is another reason I don't like listmaking. If you actually give opinions on things, then people will find all sorts of reasons to find you scummy. Would you prefer a bland, content-neutral assessment of the players in the game? You have plenty of those to look at.

I have no problem with you making a list, in fact I appreciate the effort. I find people that are completely against making them to be scummy because they won't go on record. And just because I disagree with your assessment doesn't mean I'm going to think your scum. Such disagreements can lead to discussion about said persons alegiance which is a good thing. You seem a bit touchy about my comment that I didn't agree with you. There's not a word about you being scummy up there.

And if I have plenty of bland content-neurtral assessments, why am I described as an agressive townie on your list? Would you care to demonstrate these assessments of mine, or continue fabricating discussion topics?

My mistake. You are right that you did not implicate me. You just said that you had a disagreement with the assessments. I guess I got a bit touchy after what ChronX said, which reeked of OMGUS to me.

My impression is that you are an aggressive player. I'll pull some quotes out when I get a chance.

\

I think this warrants a re-organization of my scum town list:

town: me, pwayne, Tyler, Claus (simply by default)
scum: Dasq, aioqwe, Rishi, Tobi
^most towny to the left, most scummy to the right^

And I think there is a likelihood of Rishi and Tobi being paired.

[Sikario8]

(Just checking in)
And so we have the dilemma
Tobi or Aioqwe?

You know my vote's on Tobi; however, if the town resolves to lynch aioqwe due to Claus's representation of his reasoning, then I will oblige.

[Rishi]

shaft.ed - Some of those quotes are pro-Tobiassen and some are anti-Tobiassen. There's 36 pages in this game. I would wager that, if you picked any random two players, you'll find all sorts of "connections" between them.

Also, you can't simply place me at the top of your scumlist for defending a player, until you know the alignment of the player that I'm defending.

[pwayne66]

pwayne is it too much to ask why you find me suspicious?

You said that you didn't notice that Tobiassen was wasn't contributing. This struck me as odd. Even odder considering:

yeah tob, post something of actual content I'm being persuaded more and more that you are scum and not just a newb, you don't even try.

and then later in the same post:

The little part about you being harmless tob isn't ture, even if you are innocent, you are a liability in the fact that you don't provide much content.

I realize this can be accounted for by reasons other than scumminess. But this is where my head is at now.