Open 44 - Twofold Mafia: GAME OVER! before 506

[Claus]

Oh.. the other advantage of mass claiming today rather than tomorrow is that the Mafia won't have a chance to privately discuss what they'll say in their claims.

Unless they did that last night.

[Sikario8]

i don't see any problems with the notion unless i haven't been reading deep enough, which i believe i have. i believe this is the first game i've played where the town are smarter than scum...

[Rishi]

Oh.. the other advantage of mass claiming today rather than tomorrow is that the Mafia won't have a chance to privately discuss what they'll say in their claims.

Unless they did that last night.

It's possible, but they wouldn't have known that there'd be only two vanilla townies left.

It's hard to know where everyone stands. Maybe we should take a vote? I'm willing to go with the majority.

I vote yes on massclaiming.

[pwayne66]

Has anyone here ever not played with Korlash before?

I haven't, but that's a long and WIFOMy road.

[aioqwe]

cops don't know they are A or B (based on pms on page 1)

Also note that if the above is true than completely throws off shaft's logic because his assumption is cops know if they're A or B

Mafia probably aim at intelligent townies, potential cop, and hoped the other group got the doc. If they assumed the other team would kill the doc then I doubt they felt it necessary discuss mass claim.

ummm... just throwing out the idea: shaft posts the whole potential outcomes because he thinks his partner is inexperienced and wants to "tell" his partner what to do...

I haven't completely thought out this whole situation but I'm leaning to wait till tomorrow...

[Tobiassen]

i dont see why the cops need to know if they're A or B,
they can't compare notes with the other cop, and i doubt the mafias will yell out if they're A or B, but i do wonder if mafia dies do we get to know if he where in A or B ?
because if we lynch a mafia today, and 1 mafia get wacked in nk, do we know if we eliminated one mafia group or just plucked one from each mafia group.

[Sikario8]

before i unvote, is this a reasonable statement?

[Tobiassen]

so the only way for a cop to know if he's A or B would be to get a confirmed mafia hit one night, and then that mafia would have to die later on only to revile what group he was in.

[Tobiassen]

before i unvote, is this a reasonable statement?

i'd doubt you'll ever find me reasonable.

[Tobiassen]

btw, i see you're having a birthday today,
gratz,

[Sikario8]

@Pwayne: Every post you've submitted thus far, excluding some reactions, has been brimming with substance; however, you don't feel as if you know enough to vote?

[shaft.ed]

cops don't know they are A or B (based on pms on page 1)

Also note that if the above is true than completely throws off shaft's logic because his assumption is cops know if they're A or B

Good catch I hadn't noticed that. I think this makes my theory have too many draw backs. I'll roll it around in my head for a while but I'm thinking the claim will be less powerful than I had originally thought.

ummm... just throwing out the idea: shaft posts the whole potential outcomes because he thinks his partner is inexperienced and wants to "tell" his partner what to do...

I realize you're just throwing out the idea, but I find it hard to believe. As town, we cannot evaluate our actions without knowing what the repurcussions will be. How do you expect to decide whether or not it is in the town's benefit if you don't know what the outcomes could entail?

[shaft.ed]

@Pwayne: Every post you've submitted thus far, excluding some reactions, has been brimming with substance; however, you don't feel as if you know enough to vote?

I think this is a good point.

And happy Birthday.

Since the claim is looking less useful I'll be back to good old fashion scum hunting instead of game breaking later today.

[pwayne66]

Happy birthday Sikario.

@Pwayne: Every post you've submitted thus far, excluding some reactions, has been brimming with substance; however, you don't feel as if you know enough to vote?

This isn't the case.


I'm going back and forth on the claim. I would like to hear Dasq's take on it.

[pwayne66]

Working on updating my initial thoughts coming into the game but I am getting close to going home, I will post what I have and finish later:

Sikario8- CA already left Panz in a rough spot. Panz seems to admit that he was pushing for a lynch of somebody he knew to be a townie (#370). Calls for a claim then doesn't call for it. Goes agro-defensive and claims that there is no logic behind his wagon. Post 370 was terrible and very WIFOMy. This guy is dead barring a Doc claim. Its funny that is exactly what he did. Distorts the position against him and never really defends himself, just threatens to call his detractors idiots. ---

In addition, the whole, "...if this is the game where I am the doc, it was probaly random" thing sits bad with me. Add in the fact that he never get around to admitting that he never sent in a choice until he was prompted by shaft (#827) and he survived the night, Sikario's even deeper in the scum pile.

Tylerj- Pinged my scumdar a couple of times. His wagon seems really to be his own doing. I'm thinking town though. I think scum would have rested easy with Panzer defending him instead of going after his defender.---

Didn't notice that Tobiassen was wasn't contributing. This struck me as odd. Even odder considering:

yeah tob, post something of actual content I'm being persuaded more and more that you are scum and not just a newb, you don't even try.

and then later in the same post:

The little part about you being harmless tob isn't ture, even if you are innocent, you are a liability in the fact that you don't provide much content.

the rest later...

[pwayne66]

EBWOP: I don't know why it just occurred to me, but doc isn't a safe claim in this game. I'm sure that somebody else has mentioned it and I just missed it, but if this is the case, Sikario being alive today is a null tell.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: I don't know why it just occurred to me, but doc isn't a safe claim in this game. I'm sure that somebody else has mentioned it and I just missed it, but if this is the case, Sikario being alive today is a null tell.

Yes we went back and forth on this at length when you entered the game. Glad you have had an epiphany. While Sikario may still be scum, a claimed Doc is really not a lynch candidate.

[Dasquian]

Sorry I didn't get round to posting yesterday, I always need a run-up doing proper thought-dump posts. Anyway, alive we have...

pwayne66
Sikario8
Tylerj
Dasquian
Claus
aioqwe
Rishi
Tobiassen
shaft.ed

Of these, there is one doctor, two cops, two townies and four scum. As previously stated, I am more than happy believing Sikario really is the doctor. In fact, I'm sure I'll take some flak for this because I can see why this can be accused of being a scummy move, but bear with me: if anyone is the real doctor, and knows Sikario is lying, would they please counter-claim now? The reason being that we're pretty much guaranteed to see the lying doctor dead tomorrow (either lynched today or NKed tonight), and it'll stop a potential doc counter-claim that we would have to deal with in Ly/Lo.

Do people agree with this? I think it's worth

knowing

that Sikario is indeed the doctor. This brings me onto the subject of mass claims:

Pros:

Scum have nowhere to hide. The claims are set down and we'll know exactly how many scum are in the "townie claim" subgroup, and how many are in the "cop claim" subgroup. If we're lucky, they'll all claim one or the other but that seems rather unlikely.

Cons:

Pretty much tells the scum who the cops are, and in a worst-case scenario where there's one scum in each group claiming each of townie and cop, doesn't make the odds any easier immediately.

I need to think this through a bit, but my gut says that a mass claim is

probably

on balance a good play, even if it gets the cops killed, it increases the chances of cross-kills and will eventually give us better odds.

Onto the individual thoughts. With the numbers as they are, and assuming Sik to be the doc, I am looking for three other pro-town players more than I'm looking for four scum. So here's what I currently think:

pwayne66 - Seems to have good, solid reasoning. Little has jumped out as being scummy, little has jumped out as being obviously town.
Tylerj - Has gone right up in my estimation; I'm getting pretty good townie vibes from him and probably trust him more than anyone else atm. I would have to go back to square that feeling against the fact he was on the lordy bandwagon, though.
Claus - His avatar terrifies me, but again, I get mostly townie vibes. I also got townie vibes from groinhammer. Overall, feeling pretty good about him.
aioqwe - Was quite lurky in day 1, but otherwise is a pretty tough read. The fact he was on the lordy bandwagon sinks him down the list though so, by virtue of not being in my top 3, that makes him scum.
Rishi - another lordy bandwagonner, and one I've had bad vibes from from very early on in the game. Certainly not in my top 3, so again, scum.
Tobiassen - Often, a newbie will get into the game, make lots of newbie mistakes, and get a lot of heat. Soon enough, it'll become reasonably apparent that they are just genuinely clueless, and they'll either get lynched anyway, or get given a break. You know what?

Sometimes those same players will get a scum role.

I think that this is what has happened here. I didn't like Max, either. Top choice for scum.
shaft.ed - Like pwayne, another solid, logical and intelligent poster. For some reason, I don't trust him. I don't know what it is, it's nothing specific but I just don't get good vibes from him. In another game with a smaller scum:town ratio I'd write him off as being a tough read, but as the numbers work out, he's in my scum pile.

So basically, that means I'm thinking that town are TylerJ, Claus and pwayne, in that order. Continuing that increasing level of suspicion, I think scum are shaft.ed, aioqwe, Rishi and Tobiassen, the latter two being at a substantially more comfortable level of suspicion than the former two.

As there appears to be only one vote on Tobiassen (ie no chance of quicklynch):

vote Tobiassen

.

I would love the four people I've listed as scum to do a similar exercise as I've done above, and divide the town into scum and town, but it'd be useful for everyone to do anyway. I think with so many scum left, and with such a harsh divide that everyone you

don't

rank as your top 4 townies (obviously you don't have to auto-assume Sikario is town like I did!) you are accusing of being scum, the results could be quite telling.

[shaft.ed]

Dasq, I like your analysis style (aside from me being scum of course). I think I'll try getting something similar up later today.

One point of contention, I really don't understand how you could have gotten that good a read off of Claus. GH didn't post much and Claus hasn't really been here that long. I'm surprised this puts him in your town group.

[TylerJ]

So I don't think we are going with mass claiming. But to find scum, well, do I have to do another reread! Tob seems the most scummy, simply because of his lack early lack of contribution. I kind of forgot about that, but I should do a reread on him, and see if he actually scum hunted. On the flip side, I don't find him scummy enough for a vote.

[Rishi]

I will say that I dislike listmaking in general, because it gives too much information to scum. If everyone lists someone as a pro-town player, then they are usually targeted by the Mafia. If everyone thinks someone is scummy, then they will probably be kept around.

However, because of the unusual setup in this game, I think listmaking might not be so bad. If the scum are trying to kill townies, then they might target the same person. If they're trying to kill each other, they might target the most scummy.

I will think about it and come up with a list.

[shaft.ed]

OK before I get my list in I wanted to do a simple wagon analysis. Anything of four or more votes will be included as a wagon. Bolded names are confirmed townies.

ChronX/lordy

v1- 4 (

Jdodge

, shaft.ed, theopor_COD/pwayne66, Rishi)

ckillor/Korlash

- 4 (Max/Tobiassen, theopor_COD/pwayne66, TylerJ, Panzerjager/Sikario8)

TylerJ v1- 5 (

Jdodge

, groinhammer/Claus, Dasquian, Rishi, Panzerjager/Sikario8)

TylerJ v2- 5 (

Jdodge

, groinhammer/Claus, Dasquian, Rishi,

ChronX/lordy

)
*Note that this was entirely caused by panzer dropping his vote and ChronX quickly adding his, will not be counted separately in tallies below.

Panzerjager/Sikario8 - 5 (

ckillor/Korlash

, TylerJ, Dasquian, groinhammer/Claus,

ChronX/lordy

)

ChronX/lordy

v2 - 5 (shaft.ed, Rishi,

Frostypants/JDodge

, panzerjager/Sikario8,

ckillor/Korlash

)

lordy

v3 - 4 (Sikario8,

Korlash

, aioqwe, TylerJ)

lordy

v4- 5 (Sikario8, aioqwe, TylerJ, Rishi,

JDodge

)
*Note this is similar to the panzer wagon above and will not count separately in tallies.


Man this is freaking hard to read with all the replacements. Things to note, Korlash had the largest wagon with no confirmed townies on it which included Tobi's predecessor, pwayne's predecessor, TylerJ and Sikario's predecessor.

Number of wagon's per player:
shaft.ed=2
pwayne66=2 (entirely predecessor)
Rishi=

4

Tobi=1 (predecessor)
TylerJ=

4

Sikario=

4

(mostly predecessor's play)
Claus=2 (entirely predecessor)
Dasquain=2
aioqwe=1 only the mislynch

Numbers are out of 6 total bandwagons

[Dasquian]

That seems like a somewhat arbitrary set of information. Where are you going with it?

[Dasquian]

Oh and, re: Claus, it's more a gut feeling thing than anything else. I don't have a good logical read on him either way; I just feel generally better about his postings than most other people's.

That said, it's worth noting that I find Sikario quite scummy and he's the only one I really think

has

to be town.

[shaft.ed]

That seems like a somewhat arbitrary set of information. Where are you going with it?

Ha, I was hoping it wouldn't be arbitrary. It ended up pretty much so, but didn't want to waste the effort by not posting. Guess that might have been the better option.