Open 44 - Twofold Mafia: GAME OVER! before 506

[Rishi]

I would have to agree with sikario about the lack of contribution that tob has given to this game. I hadn't really thought about it because he kind of escaped my notice. I guess you can say "lurking in plain sight".

He posts ten times a day and says nothing. And several people referred to this towards the end of Day 1. How do you MISS that?

[TylerJ]

Well... It isn't that it hadn't crossed my mind, it was that I didn't pay much attention to it when it did. So I didn't miss it, I just didn't think much of it. So when I said it escaped my notice, it wasn't entirely true.

[shaft.ed]

OK time for a quick post. I need to do a reread to refresh the end of day activities before I get my bigger one up.

pwayne mentioned my being upset with the lordy lynch. While it's true that I provided the most evidence against ChronX/lordy I had mentioned many a time afterward that the two ChronX bandwagons were far too easy. In fact so was the lordy bandwagon. Korlash pointed this out rather nicely, though mixed in with his usual craziness, that lordy was likely just a disinterested townie. This was proven by his lynch. I tried pushing an alternative but was out of thread in the days before deadline. During my reread I'm pretty sure I would have favored a Tob or Rishi lynch but I forgot my exact reasons for suspecting Rishi.

Unfortunately it was a deadline lynch and thus we may not know whether scum were on the wagon. We already know that JDodge was town, and Sikario is still an uncountered Doc who somehow survived the night. Rishi was on ALL 3 ChronX/lordy wagons and his reasoning was not great (I intend to get into this in much more detail with a later post). Aoiqwe pretty much just said "what the hell" and voted lordy. The discrepencies with his previous cautioius comments have been noted. Tyler also crept onto the lordy wagon. His vote came in later than others and was really superfluous to the lynch. I see it as inconsequential. Likely scum would not have bothered placing such a vote.

Thus I think Rishi and aoiqwe should garner some suspicion from there presence on the lordy wagon.


In regards to Sikario's non-death, I find three possibilities likely. 1) the claim was not believed and the mafia didn't want to waste a NK. 2) the threat of wasting a NK on a common target was deemed to great to risk. 3) the mafia are playing overly confident and think Doc protection might even come their way. While these are not mutually exclusive I find it likely that the second scenario is the most likely. The choice of (slightly) scummy targets also makes it clear that the mafia were trying to avoid Doc protected players and maybe even score a cross-kill. Also while I think the third option should be considered when reading into players' alignments it falls into the trap of the 'too townie' fallacy.

I'm also surprised that it appears Sikario didn't send in a night action. I can't see this being a lie from a false claim since his action is totally unverifiable, but I don't know why he wouldn't have sent in a protection choice. I'll just say this makes me believe his claim a little bit less.

Anyway, I still think Tob is playing scummily. I'm also not liking Rishi and aoiqwe would be third on my list as of this moment. I'll be putting in an end of day read and making my case for Rishi. Based on how that read goes I'll likely vote Tob or Rishi.

[Sikario8]

Sorry that I didn't send in a protection choice, shaft, but I, like I said, I was gone. At the moment, I'm still looking at Tobi.

@Tobi: Not to be mean because I understand that you have a...er...life; however, if you wish not to be here - as your predecessor Max wished not to be here - this can be arranged.

vote: tobiassen

What do you think of this?

[Rishi]

What's the point of having a doctor who doesn't do anything?

[aioqwe]

My vote for lordy was not a WTH vote... the game was slow and lordy was coming off as the scummiest (which is also why I didn't change my vote even if I FoS/HoS someone).

I define passive as reluctant to vote but once I vote I stick with it...

Anyways, I'm going back through the pages with revealed townies in mind, happy lynching

[Sikario8]

What's the point of having a doctor who doesn't do anything?

Would it be better for me to telegraph my protections so that the mafia could bypass them and take a townie anyway?

FOS: Rishi

I understand that you may be (are) upset about me "not sending a nightchoice" but...

[Rishi]

I am not suggesting you post your future plans.

[pwayne66]

I understand that you may be (are) upset about me "not sending a nightchoice" but...

A)...being upset that the town doesn't have a doc is scummy!
B)...believing in telepathy is scummy!
C)...calling me out is scummy!
D)OTHER

^^^Which of these best complete your sentence and tells us why Rishi is suspicious to you?

[Sikario8]

I understand that you may be (are) upset about me "not sending a nightchoice" but...

A)...being upset that the town doesn't have a doc is scummy!
B)...believing in telepathy is scummy!
C)...calling me out is scummy!
D)OTHER

^^^Which of these best complete your sentence and tells us why Rishi is suspicious to you?

Is there any right answer? (

Other

than the truth or the obvious)

[Sikario8]

can i send in a choice now or must i wait until night? i don't want this to happen again, though i doubt it will

[Dasquian]

That's a question between you and the mod.

Honestly, I don't think this is a very useful discussion though. If Sikario is our claimed doc, and no other docs show up to counter the claim, then we're not going to lynch him. As far as I'm concerned, he

is

the doc, whether he protected last night or not. Even if he doesn't protect, a townie point of reference is useful to have. It means only three of the other players can be pro-town. It might well be easier to pick them than the potential scum!

But, um... please protect someone tonight, OK?

[Sikario8]

Got it

[Rishi]

Honestly, I don't think this is a very useful discussion though. If Sikario is our claimed doc, and no other docs show up to counter the claim, then we're not going to lynch him. As far as I'm concerned, he

is

the doc, whether he protected last night or not. Even if he doesn't protect, a townie point of reference is useful to have. It means only three of the other players can be pro-town. It might well be easier to pick them than the potential scum!

I'm not trying to get Sikario lynched. If we are stuck with Sikario (and it looks like we are), he needs to learn how to play. Unless people get upset at him not sending in a nightchoice, he's going to think it's no big deal.

By my count, there are nine players left and four Mafia. That means we have four players other than Sikario that are town.

I also think it's interesting that there are only two vanilla townies left.

[shaft.ed]

I also think it's interesting that there are only two vanilla townies left

This got me thinking. Would a mass claim be totally crazy for us right now? We've already outed our most vulnerable power role (who didn't even function last nigth) and cops aren't nearly as useful in this set up since only a guilty result means anything until we wipe out one of the scum groups. Now that there are only two vanilla roles left scum will be forced to counter their own alignment cop or blend in with the only two remaining vanillas. Even with the cops outed the scum will have a WIFOM choice as to whether to take the Doc out and risk overlaping NK's or target their own cop who might garner protection. And if they kill outside the claimed role pool they will risk whittling away another vanilla role for them to hide behind.

I've never been in a game with a mass claim before so I'm not sure what obvious negatives such action would have. Anyone have opinions on this line of discussion?

[Sikario8]

Logical

[Claus]

Hmm...

Mass Claiming helps creating confirmed/confirmable townies - specially now that the claim number is limited.

On the other hand, scum don't know who each other is. Would they prefer killing townies before starting the crosskills? If so, it is in the town's interest to hold on the roleclaim information a little more.

Or am I wrong? Never played with two scum groups that know each other's existance from the beginning.

I think we should wait until tomorrow, but this opinion is not terribly strong.

[Rishi]

The scum won't know who the real townies are any more than we do. And, if they kill the townies first, they risk a draw.

I don't think massclaiming is bad. The best way to handle it (since we have no deadline) is that, as each person claims, they pick the next person to claim. That means that the Mafia can't just wait around, go last and figure out what the best claim is.

I will warn you, however, in mass claim games, the game completely changes in nature. It is only marginally about who is scummy / who isn't. It is about who has the most believable claims.

Want to hear what others think - especially Dasquian and pwayne. (And I don't care what Tobiassen thinks.)

[pwayne66]

Well, we are down 3 townies. That's 2 to 2 to 5, 3 of those 5 being power roles. The doc can only defend one of the claimed cops. On the other hand, without being able to compare notes, cops are generally useless. IE just because COP A clears you doesn't mean that you are clear. The cops don't know anybodies idenity unless they return a guilty verdict. For this reason, at lylo (or at least closer) with two cops, a claim might be a good idea so they can share their data.

Worst case scenerio for today in general, we lynch town and lose two at night. The brings us to 2-2-2. So at the very worst, we are not even at lylo. I think the odds of at least one scum dieing today/tonight are pretty high, so likely we go into tomorrow 1-2-3.

I like some facets of a claim, but I think it might be early.

[TylerJ]

I don't favor the claim. It leaves the cops with less to work with before they are outed at night. And their will be so many multiple claims that finding scum would be more of a mess. If everyone else agrees with it though, I will go along with it. But I just want you to know that I don't agree with the verdict.

[Rishi]

The problem is, at 2-2-2, we're not at lynch-or-lose, but I think it would be unlikely for the town to come back from that.

I think a mass claim today is a good idea, but, tomorrow, imho, it's absolutely necessary.

[shaft.ed]

I've been thinking about how this would work out and here are my likely results. Note that I am assuming no Doc counter claim because that is fairly dangerous and only a single Cop counter claim. After these assumptions we're left with four outcomes:

1) All scum claim vanilla:

Thus we have two uncountered Cops and an uncountered Doc and three confirmed pro-town players. Then we are left with a pool of 6 players 2 of which are town 4 of which are scum. Odds of lynching scum today will be 67%. Bonus is that lynching a townie isn't even that bad because 4 scum are then contained within 5 players. Night choices for scum will be incredibly difficult IMHO. They will have the WIFOM of targeting their Cop who can now easily be protected, or do they target the known Doc and risk an overlapping kill. Better yet the scum have a very large chance of cross-killing since they will know each other quite well. Likely NK results are hard to determine but I'd say Overlapping kills, Successful Doc protection and cross kills are all decent possibilities in this situation.

2) One scum claims cop, rest vanilla:

Here we will have one uncountered Cop and uncountered Doc with a protested Cop claim. Within the cop group there will be a 50% chance that one is scum and the other a power role. Within the townie group there will be a 60% chance that one is scum. Again lynching from the townie pool will be the play of the game. The scum that has countered the cop would have a difficult decision at night. If they kill of the actual cop they out themselves as scum for tommorows lynch. If they don't kill the cop they risk leaving him alive to investigate a partner. On the other side of the ailse the Doc is very likely to protect the uncontested claim and thus the other mafia group cannot kill their corresponding Cop. And if they target townies they lose their cover, thus they will be likely to take out the Doc. Night actions would be very likely to lose our Doc and probably a second player from the townie pool. I think both cops will remain intact, crosskills possible. Decent town outcome especially if a crosskill occurs.

3) Two cop counterclaims:

In this scenario we will have both scum group counter claim their respective cops. Here we will be left with two cop pairs at 50% chance of being scum and a pool of four possible townies that contains two scum. Odds of hitting scum from any group are 50%. As above I think it'd be best to lynch from the townie pool since this will give a back up of increasing our likelihood of finding scum in said pool if we mislynch. Night actions would be a likely Doc kill, but possibly not if scum are worried about overlapping NK activity. Both teams will be left with the conundrum of killing their cop = outing themselves and thus I think our Cops will likely be left intact for the night. Crosskills possible as well as overlapping Doc kill. Likely a decent night outcome, but the dilemma the next day over which cops to believe could prove too difficult to overcome.

Thus WCS we have our chance of hitting scum go up to 50% from 33%. Also with the scum stuck in their claims, they will not be able to kill cops if they attempt to counter a cop claim. Conversely, if they claim vanilla, they increase their odds of being outed. I think I like the chances given a mass claim.

[shaft.ed]

two quick thoughts.

I said earlier Korlash was an odd N1 kill. He gets himself into a lot of trouble without any help from the mafia. Anyone who has played with him should know this. I suspect his killers didn't. Has anyone here ever not played with Korlash before?

Also if we do go with the mass claim, I think it'd be best for the Cops to just claim cop first time around. This way it'll be more of a gambit for false claims in case scum think they are in better standing than their specific Cop type. If we do this we can go with a second round of claims where cops specify which type they are.

signing off for now

[Rishi]

Oh.. the other advantage of mass claiming today rather than tomorrow is that the Mafia won't have a chance to privately discuss what they'll say in their claims.

[TylerJ]

I'm liking the idea now. But keep in mind that the cops might not even know which one they are. Maybe all they know is that they are a cop.