Mini Normal 1839 - Game Over!

[Foxbird]

Votecount 2.11

karnos

(1) - Thor665

Saru

(2) - aronagrundy, ironstove

Thor665

(2) - karnos, Fire Assassin

LmkGuy

(1) - Lowell

Lowell

(2) - Saru, LmkGuy

aronagrundy

(1) - bji

Not Voting

(2) - Nero Cain, PenguinPower

With

11

players eligible to vote, it’s

6

to lynch!

Day 2 will end in

(expired on 2016-11-11 12:47:28).

Mod Notes:

Prodding LmkGuy and Lowell.

[Nero Cain]

pp what did Iron say that you liked so much that you unvoted?

[bji]

investigate iron/lowell, protect nero, kill mal if he doesn't replace out

Not interested in gathering any more info on the person who you previously spent most of the day voting for. Just not a consistent position.

Just wanted to respond, that post was in response to FA asking what he should do n1. By then FA had already claimed so I thought he was town. And it's not like I can ask see to investigate themselves lol

Yeah. That is a good point. It was hard to follow all of the back and forth on a read through, so many intertwined threads of interaction. It's been my experience in the past that I cannot find scum by following the main points of contention, because WIFOM, so I try to look at the more subtle interactions. Eventually I get something. But it's harder when I am not observing them in real time.

UNVOTE: aronagrundy

[bji]

bji, who should we have lynched d1 and why?

It's a bit hard to say in retrospect because my evaluations are already somewhat affected by the actual vote and the results and today's further posts. The only players I would have avoided voting for are ironstove and Knighty Knight/Fire Assassin. I would have favored voting for aronagrundy or one of the { karnos, Saru } duo. Looking back at my notes, which started out more detailed but as you can imagine got sparser as the read through wore on and I got tired, I didn't like the karnos/sanu exchange where they traded insults about some other game, and I seemed to dislike karnos' involvement more than disliking saru's, especially karnos' vote on saru. But that fight seemed "weird" enough to me to put them both under some suspicion.

I'm not that experienced at this game but I am under absolutely no illusions that I'm going to figure much out on Day 1, so as long as interactions happen, and a vote is placed on a player who was meaningfully involved, I'm pretty OK with it. What I really don't like about that day 1 lynch was that it was against a player who was not meaningfully involved.

I still have to re-read that mislynch wagon a little more closely and see if anything stands out. My first read-through was linear and I didn't pay as close attention to the mislynch wagon because I didn't know that it was going to go all the way.

[Nero Cain]

I started a reply to this but I'm second guessing myself and would like to see you talk about the mislynch wagon first.

[Thor665]

- ironstove is high on my list of interesting persons. I appreciate how he's tried to drive wagons repeatedly and all of them seemed well justified to me.

Could you pick any one of his wagons (he has plenty to choose from) and explain why you like the well justified logic of it?

@bjj


@FA -

[PenguinPower]

pp what did Iron say that you liked so much that you unvoted?

Like...maybe you could read the previous page. It has posts on it. They contain information. I think that information may answer your question.

Nice fluff post.

[bji]

OK so karnos put FA at L-1 in post 608.

Nero Cain responds with a fake hammer vote in post 612. I somehow missed that on first read through. It's not that interesting though because it doesn't really do anything. He does a real vote for ironstove 621. Then post 626 is the place where he starts some FUD about Mal which begins that wagon.

If Nero Cain were scum, I don't know why he would lead a wagon away from town PR Fire Assassin, I'd only see him doing that if FA was his scum buddy, and I really don't believe that FA is scum. My only problem is that the logic of "and Mal posting everywhere but here is prob scum" is terrible, but then again, if Nero is town believing town!FA PR claim, then he's gotta be happy to lead a wagon just about anywhere in preference to seeing a FA lynch.

644 and the subsequent postings between ironstove and FA I read as ironstove trying to fake a hammer as a reaction test. I am under no illusion that ironstove actually believed that he was hammering FA. His post 652 makes it pretty clear that he was just reaction testing FA. This is one of the reasons that I have a strong townread on ironstove.

Around post 685 a wagon on Thor is starting to form. Nero Cain prefers to vote against Mal though. This is actually interesting. Post 689 Nero Cain says "so scum is voting Thor. Does this mean Saru is a scumbuddy or he's voting off the wagon to manipulate us onto the Saru wagon?". Who was voting Thor? Saru, FA, and ironstove. Saying "Does this mean Saru is a scumbuddy" means that Nero must have been referring to one or both of the other two as scum. If Nero thought that FA was scum presumably he'd be focused on hammering him instead of pushing a new wagon. That leaves ironstove. This is consistent with his earlier postings wrt ironstove. But why is Nero Cain pushing for a wagon on Mal if he believes that ironstove is scum?

FA is second on the mal wagon in post 695. The vote is not explained. I don't get it.

Thor is third on the mal wagon with 701, and his reasoning is sheeping. This looks bad to me. Sheeping didn't fit into any part of Thor's approach up to this point. I felt like he was being methodical and consistent previously and then all of a sudden is happy to be on a wagon that makes no sense? Highly suspect.

Nero Cain post 702 makes it very clear that ironstove was the scum he was referring to being on the Thor wagon.

703 to 707 ironstove bounces from lowell to Mal, becoming fourth on the Mal wagon. It seems like he does it in response to interaction with Nero Cain, who thinks iron is scum. Is ironstove joining the Mal wagon just to test Nero Cain's response to having his top scum read join his wagon? I can't see any other reason given by ironstove for the vote. Nero Cain doesn't really respond though and doesn't seem to care that his strongest scum read has joined his wagon. This is weird.

710 aronagrundy pops in and doesn't give much substance and happily joins the Mal wagon, putting Mal at L-3, despite having no good reason to. I didn't like this vote either which was one of my strikes against aronagrundy.

713 LmkGuy refuses to join the Mal wagon. 714 says he would like to see mal killed though, which is a more reasonable approach than the lynch.

karnos tries to inject reason into the debate in 738.

742 Nero Cain is now actively pushing for the Mal lynch for bad reasons. This is significant. In 743 he doesn't even suggest that taking any action against Mal in the event that the Mal lynch doesn't happen is worthwhile. Also significant.

GreyICE 746 also tries to inject some logic into this bad wagon.

ironstove post 752 unvotes Mal. Would be town cred, except later he gets back on the wagon anyway.

759 Thor replaces no reasoning for being on the Mal wagon with bad reasoning. Thor seems to me to be too experienced at this game to actively be preferring a bad lynch to his earlier lynch targets.

Following posts (I'm getting tired of typing post links, find the posts yourself) have karnos trying to get people off the Mal wagon using good reasoning. BUT THEN post 767 he totally does a 180 and votes him to L-2.

Soon thereafter ironstove does his own 180 and puts Mal on L-1. WTF is going on here?

Nero's post immediately after that claims that "Mal prob filps scum here. I tend to think that his buddies are in LMK, PP, and Stove." If Nero is scum he would have known that Mal is town, so he'd be weakening his own case against Ironstove by this post, suggesting he'd rather target LMK or PP for the next mislynch in day 2.

Thor comes on strong after that to push the Mal wagon. He's pushing what was a mislynch at L-1. I don't like this.

GreyICE hammers. We know GreyICE was town so I will trust that his reasoning really was policy lynch. I don't agree with that, but there it is.


OK so ... out of all of this, here are my conclusions:

- I don't know why Nero would prefer a Mal lynch over Ironstove, or why Nero moved his vote off of Ironstove and onto Mal. This is really bad.
- I don't know why Nero completely ignored the fact that his top scum read had joined his wagon on Mal
- LmkGuy, kamos, and GreyICE were the only players I saw really trying to put the brakes on the mad Mal wagon
- Thor looks opportunistic and bad in all of this
- ironstove confuses me, his overall contributions have been very towny to me but his presence on this wagon and the way it went down at the end are very troubling

So this analysis lets me further refine my reads.

Town: Fire Assassin
Lean Town: ironstove, LmkGuy, Kamos
Lean Scum: Nero Cain
Scum: Thor

VOTE: Thor

[bji]

- ironstove is high on my list of interesting persons. I appreciate how he's tried to drive wagons repeatedly and all of them seemed well justified to me.

Could you pick any one of his wagons (he has plenty to choose from) and explain why you like the well justified logic of it?

I liked what he did in post 60. I thought he was faking a claim that he would hammer to see how others would react. I can see him trying to apply pressure on players (post 73) for a similar reason. I feel like there is a scum hunting motivation in all of these reaction tests and bluffs and stuff.

117 and 118 feel like more of the same.

225 same.

236 tries to strengthen the weight of his bluffs.

It's just a feeling I get, this looks like a player who is trying to use voting to apply pressure. I would not expect scum to spend so much time moving votes around, I'd expect them to more opportunistically stick to one or two wagons.

Of course, I have been fooled in the past and will be fooled in the future. But my gut feeling on ironstove leans town because of all of this.

I just don't get why he voted Mal, the reasoning was thin and what was there was bad.

Care to offer any explanation ironstove?

[Thor665]

Your definition of opportunism is not moving your vote much?
And your theory that he is faking his pushes is what shows 'justified logic' to you?
And me sheeping Nero is tantamount to a scum case.
Eeeeeh.

You should vote Karnos.

[Nero Cain]

Iron has already stated that he voted Mal to avoid a no lynch. The only odd thing here is that he voted so quickly after denouncing the wagon and I've already asked him about it and he has ignored my question, just like all the other ones I've asked him.

[Lowell]

Damn, prodded. Thought I was on top of this game.

I like bji's entry, good energy. Even if he can't even muster an opinion about me. I also like Nero of late and agree with 1035. Iron bears some responsibility for the quick unvote/vote mal fest that ended D1. If iron were some random lurker it might be forgiveable but he plays like someone willing to engage in arguments--except this one I guess.

[bji]

Your definition of opportunism is not moving your vote much?
And your theory that he is faking his pushes is what shows 'justified logic' to you?
And me sheeping Nero is tantamount to a scum case.
Eeeeeh.

You should vote Karnos.

It's not my definition of opportunism. I think of opportunism more as 'following wagons' than 'leading wagons', although sometimes it can include starting wagons. I think of opportunism as being more passive than active. All of these are fuzzy definitions of course. And ironstove just doesn't strike me as passive, and thus doesn't strike me as opportunistic.

Please don't get hung up on my 'justified logic' phrase. It was part and parcel of a general observation that I found myself agreeing with ironstove's logic and apparent motivation, and also approving of the way he was going about it, more than disagreeing.

Your sheeping is just out of character with the rest of your postings. Do you deny that? Can you show me another post (in this game) where you decided to sheep a position for no obvious reason? As far as I can tell you spent most of the game steadfastly defending a Karnos vote from detractors, and attacking other people's positions against anyone except Karnos, and then suddenly you're sheeping a vote on mal for unexplained reasons (I'd quote posts but it's pretty much your entire ISO for Day 1). Please describe to me the chain of logic that gets you from point A to point B there.

Why should I vote Karnos? I have a town lean on him.

[ironstove]

I voted because there was one day left and I didn't think we had enough time to create another wagon so if I didn't vote then it was going to nl

This is because about 4 players seemed afk.

In retrospect I should have held my vote and waited last minute but I thought the outcome would be the same and fmpov nl was the only outcome that would have occurred had I fought the Lynch with that little time. Fmpov even if I thought mal wasn't scum, I voted because maybe I was wrong and the flip would give information.

The fact that I voted should indicate I'm town more than scum because as town the fact that I lynched rather than pushed for the nl was the town play.

[Lowell]

Read back from near the end of D1, and jesus LMK really needs to die. As the saru wagon was heating up (before the extension/switch to malp), he jumps in right as everyone is voting saru to derail by voting me (I had no votes). His reasoning was that as saru was a null read for me, I shouldn't lynch, and that makes me scummy. He does nothing else the rest of the day, makes no effort to get me or anyone else lynched (despite ostensibly thinking I'm scum and it being close to deadline), and makes no further comment even as several other people vote saru or malp with similarly lukewarm feelings. He deliberately derailed the saru wagon (then more or less let his case drop), but didn't lift a finger on the malp wagon. I don't recall any specific preference between malp and saru, so explain why town-lmk would do that.

Also I sort of like the explanation in 1038, and looking back iron's vote isn't as bad as I remembered.

[Thor665]

It's not my definition of opportunism. I think of opportunism more as 'following wagons' than 'leading wagons', although sometimes it can include starting wagons. I think of opportunism as being more passive than active. All of these are fuzzy definitions of course. And ironstove just doesn't strike me as passive, and thus doesn't strike me as opportunistic.

That's a bad definition.
By that definition aren't you being opportunistic by voting me?
Isn't FA (a person you claim as town) being opportunistic on everything?
If town does exactly what you're using as evidence that Iron isn't scum, isn't that kind of an empty logic ball you're holding up?

Please don't get hung up on my 'justified logic' phrase. It was part and parcel of a general observation that I found myself agreeing with ironstove's logic and apparent motivation, and also approving of the way he was going about it, more than disagreeing.

Your agreement of him is based on a presumption of what he's doing though, isn't it?
Shouldn't you have at least asked him 'hey, what was your motivation with these votes?" first before town reading him? Y'know, to verify your presumption was correct?

Your sheeping is just out of character with the rest of your postings. Do you deny that?

Sure.

Can you show me another post (in this game) where you decided to sheep a position for no obvious reason?

Fascinating that you want to restrict it to this game only when making a value call about how I play the game. Why is that?

And here's one;
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8431551
I agree (for no reason, as I don't justify the stance, am sheeping PP's opinion, and also am theoretically attacking the slot) that Karnos isn't over defensive.
So...your move?

Why should I vote Karnos? I have a town lean on him.

You've read the game, I tend to presume you've read my case.
Would you like to explain why my case is bad/why you have a town read on Karnos? You were scum reading him a few posts ago so I'm not sure where that really came from.

[Thor665]

I also went back and looked.
i certainly didn't explain my logic when I voted Malp.

But I explained my stance and defended it multiple times thereafter in very quick succession - so where does your 'empty sheep' issue even come from?

[bji]

It's not my definition of opportunism. I think of opportunism more as 'following wagons' than 'leading wagons', although sometimes it can include starting wagons. I think of opportunism as being more passive than active. All of these are fuzzy definitions of course. And ironstove just doesn't strike me as passive, and thus doesn't strike me as opportunistic.

That's a bad definition.
By that definition aren't you being opportunistic by voting me?

If I am consistently opportunistic you might rationally use it as supporting evidence against me. Won't happen though. I've already been nonpassive in analyzing the Day 1 lynch wagon and taking action based on my analysis.

Isn't FA (a person you claim as town) being opportunistic on everything?

No, FA has taken fairly agressive action from time to time in this game. Please don't ask me to give you examples, they're in the game, and I'm tired of doing your homework.

If town does exactly what you're using as evidence that Iron isn't scum, isn't that kind of an empty logic ball you're holding up?

I must be misunderstanding the question. If town does the thing that I am saying seems towny, then doesn't that make my evaluation that the actions are towny correct? Because it's being done by town?

Please don't get hung up on my 'justified logic' phrase. It was part and parcel of a general observation that I found myself agreeing with ironstove's logic and apparent motivation, and also approving of the way he was going about it, more than disagreeing.

Your agreement of him is based on a presumption of what he's doing though, isn't it?
Shouldn't you have at least asked him 'hey, what was your motivation with these votes?" first before town reading him? Y'know, to verify your presumption was correct?

Not really. I prefer to try to deduce motives from what I can read from people's actions when they are not aware of my interest. Because they can posture for me any way they want to if they think I am looking for something; but if I'm looking when they don't know that I am doing so, then I feel that I will be less likely to be fooled by a charade meant to specifically fool me. I am satisfied with what I saw iron do earlier in the thread that I understand his motivations; I don't need him to tell me, and in fact I trust my own observations more than I would his answer to a direct question from me anyway. That being said, sometimes I will ask questions, when I don't feel that I can gather evidence elsewhere. Not necessary in this case though.

Can you show me another post (in this game) where you decided to sheep a position for no obvious reason?

Fascinating that you want to restrict it to this game only when making a value call about how I play the game. Why is that?

I avoid all meta. I never read older games for anybody and will not do so even when asked to. It's just a personal position I take. It feels too much like homework to have to read other games, and I also prefer to play this game making my own discoveries in the game thread rather than being directed to cherrypicked "evidence" from other games. The ironic thing is ... you'll know this is how I play if you look at my meta (full disclosure - I may have looked at prior games once or twice in the past before I decided to hold myself to a strict no-meta policy, but certainly in the most recent three or four games, which would be half or more than half of the games I've ever played, I have refused to look at meta when asked).

And here's one;
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8431551
I agree (for no reason, as I don't justify the stance, am sheeping PP's opinion, and also am theoretically attacking the slot) that Karnos isn't over defensive.
So...your move?

Agreeing with someone and following up with clarifying questions is hardly the same thing as sheeping a bad mislynch vote. Even suggesting that they're the same feels like desperation to find some justification for the bad vote. Yeah I'll keep my vote on you.

Why should I vote Karnos? I have a town lean on him.

You've read the game, I tend to presume you've read my case.
Would you like to explain why my case is bad/why you have a town read on Karnos? You were scum reading him a few posts ago so I'm not sure where that really came from.

Simple: 1. I never scum read Karnos, that's your interpretation of what I wrote. When I post that I don't like what people did, that doesn't mean that I am scum reading them, it means that I don't like what they did and will consider it in the overall body of evidence I use when analyzing that person. The fact that karnos was not mentioned as a scum read in any of the two explicit reads lists I have given (post 990 and 1032) is my proof that I never scum read him. Yes, I have had my doubts about him -- but I've had doubts about everybody! ... and 2. my more detailed analysis of the mislynch wagon gave me town vibes on karnos because he was one of the only ones to try to derail that wagon, and his actions read as sincere.

With regards to your case against him, I will look into it. But not right now. I have work to do.

[PenguinPower]

Ugh, wallposty guy. Let me introduce you to

Code: Select all

[spoiler=][/spoiler]

[bji]

Ugh, wallposty guy. Let me introduce you to

Code: Select all

[spoiler=][/spoiler]

My apologies, walling is an unfortunate speciality of mine.

How do you suggest I use that tag? On only my responses to quotes, or to break up all long posts into a series of separately expandable small posts?

[PenguinPower]

By main idea is what I like to do. I really don't care how wallposty it is within the spoiler.

[Nero Cain]

But why is Nero Cain pushing for a wagon on Mal if he believes that ironstove is scum?

Why should I have stopped voting one scum read just b/c a another hoped on?

I will trust that his reasoning really was policy lynch

His vote was clearly not a policy lynch.

Oh holy shit though.

I looked at mal's recent posts. Whatever you can be town.

This is fake VLA shit.

Vote: mal

Jesus. Don't claim, just die.

Fucking fake VLAers.

This doesn't just make you scum,

it means you're garbage who abuses site rules meant to accommodate people IRL. Welcome to the hell of "I will expect you to post content at all times in all games I am a part of regardless of VLA status."

Like I assume that you are taking the italics out of context but he's clearly saying he was scum that was breaking site rules. This is not something he'd say as a PL.

this is also your second misrep.

the idea of lynching a lurker on Day 1 because "he

appears

to be active elsewhere on the site" is utterly ridiculous.

there was no appears, he was 100% posting elsewhere while generally ignoring this game. Even your top town read (iron) noted this.

[Nero Cain]

If Nero Cain were scum, I don't know why he would lead a wagon away from town PR Fire Assassin, I'd only see him doing that if FA was his scum buddy, and I really don't believe that FA is scum

Nero's post immediately after that claims that "Mal prob filps scum here. I tend to think that his buddies are in LMK, PP, and Stove." If Nero is scum he would have known that Mal is town, so he'd be weakening his own case against Ironstove by this post, suggesting he'd rather target LMK or PP for the next mislynch in day 2.

yet I'm his *second biggest scumread?

I'm getting the vauge feeling that he's buddying Iron.

*Depending on his Aron read

[bji]

But why is Nero Cain pushing for a wagon on Mal if he believes that ironstove is scum?

Why should I have stopped voting one scum read just b/c a another hoped on?

Because I don't think you ever credibly established that Mal was scum, so I wouldn't characterize your actions that way.

I will trust that his reasoning really was policy lynch

His vote was clearly not a policy lynch.

Perhaps I used the term incorrectly. I only play this game a couple of times per year and I might be misremembering the definition of "policy lynch".

Oh holy shit though.

I looked at mal's recent posts. Whatever you can be town.

This is fake VLA shit.

Vote: mal

Jesus. Don't claim, just die.

Fucking fake VLAers.

This doesn't just make you scum,

it means you're garbage who abuses site rules meant to accommodate people IRL. Welcome to the hell of "I will expect you to post content at all times in all games I am a part of regardless of VLA status."

Like I assume that you are taking the italics out of context but he's clearly saying he was scum that was breaking site rules. This is not something he'd say as a PL.

I thought that hammering someone because they are breaking site rules, not because they are scum, falls under the heading of "policy lynch".

this is also your second misrep.

Misrep of who? A dead player already confirmed as town? What do I gain by that?

[Nero Cain]

I sorta feel like scum is BJ, PP and LMK.

I mean, on a meta skim this really doesn't look like town Iron and his constand avoidence of my questions is anti-town and carries some potential scum motivation but BJ's and PP's constant buddying on him are making me lean town.

I never really bought into the Tracers case and I don't understand why

ANYONE

considers a "Tracer is lurking so it must be scum!" as a good case.