Mini 506: The Siena Syndicate - Game Over!

[October Raven]

Correction of above post: should read "Quagmire being scum".

[Peers]

Peer's Review Of Day Three So Far, One Line Per Post.

--Peers: We're Screwed.
--The Dead: Go Town.
--Ooba: no reason to change my vote. Vote Quag.
--Peers: CDB is lurking but hasn't been replaced and could be the SK. Vote CDB.
--ooba: Maybe we have a vig instead of an SK.
--Peers: Good point. But for balance issues, wouldn't we have four scum then? We would be in LILO then.
--Gorrad: I'm worried about a mislynch. Vote Quag.
--Peers: Um, two votes on someone woudl let three scum quicklynch.
--Gorrad: Oops. Unvote.
--Quag: WTF? Why didn't Oman claim? Was it becasue he thought I was guilty? Vote: Gorrad.
--Peers: ... wTF? You're guilty?
--Clockwork: I think he meant not-guilty. But then, why did he vote for you?
--Quag: I have no idea.
--Clock: The SK (if there is one) isn't lurking -- the night took 22 hours. CDB probably isn't it.
--Waterboy: I don't care about this game.
--Peers: Good catch, Clock. Unvote.
--October: Why was Glork targetted? Glork wanted Clock, waterboy, or Peers lynched. WIFOM tho. FoS: Quag.
--October: I'm a bit fuzzy on math.
--Peers: Doesn't Glork have a 'best scum hunter' award or something? Gee, why would scum want him dead?
--Waterboy: Vote: Quag.
--Quag: Waterboy and Gorrad are scum!
--Quag: Still no idea why Oman didn't vote for me. Isn't cop more valuable than whatever I am?
--MOD: CDB being replaced.
--MOD: by Vampyrusddg
--MOD: Votecount (Quag 2, Gorrad 1)
--Peers: Vote: Waterboy, 'cause he voted without giving a reason and has been lurking.
--Gorrad: Unvote, having two votes on someone is risky. But, dude, why do you think those two are scum?
--Waterboy: He's paranoid.
--Vampyrus: Hi.
--ooba: Quag, oman didn't know you were innocent; why would he try to make you claim?
--October: Vote: Quag, he's grasping at straws
--Quag: OMG, you're bandwagoning me!
--Vampyrus: Gorrad and Peers are suspicous, but not both scum. Either Quag is scum, or there's scum already voting for him. So one of Peers/Gorrad and one of Quag/Ooba/Water.
--ooba: I think it's Peers/Quag. Unvote to be safe.
--Peers. I'm not scum. I warned people about a possible LILO and quicklynch -- that'd hurt the scum's chances.
--Waterboy: Sorry, my comp crashed and I lost my notes about this game I no longer care about. I thoguth Quag was scummy, but don't remember why.
--Gorrad: October, please unvote. Vamp, can you explain your suspiscions? You don't have a case.
--Vampyrus: That's why I haven't voted yet, duh. I'm working on it. My math might be fuzzy. Maybe it's not LYLO, but it's best to be safe.
--October: I'd unvote, but Quag is acting way too scummy towards everyone.
--Quag: I'm acting differently about Gorrad.
--Gorrad: Yes, but two votes is dangerous, unless someone already voting is scum... or there's only two scum.
--October: Or unless he's scum, which I note you didn't mention. FoS: Gorrad

Quick summary:
Quag is really playing up the "Why did the cop save my life? I must be innocent" angle, followed by "anyone voting me is suspicious" angle.
Peers is playing the paranoia-LYLO angle. Gorrad, Quag, and most others are going along with it.
Waterboy is playing the "I'm playing, but don't really care" angle.


Conclusions:
ooba and clockwork are very townish. Quag is very scummy, but may be paranoid-townie. Peers is paranoid. Waterboy is scummy, but may just not care.

Theory: I was wrong. We're not in LYLO. There's 8 of us. We suspect 2 scum remaining/SK or 3 scum remaining/vig. If the game is 2 scum/SK, then we are not in LYLO; a mislynch, scum-kills-townie, SK-kills-townie would bring us down to 6, and -then- it would be LYLO. If the game is 3 scum/vig, then we are in LYLO only if we lynch the vig; if we do, scum kill someone else, 3 scum, 3 town, game over. If we lynch a non-vig townie, then the vig miskills another townie (his track record so far has sucked) and scum kill a townie, 3 scum, 2 town, game over.

If we're dealing with 2 scum/SK, then we have a very small mislynch protection. If we're dealing with three and a really bad vig, then we're in trouble and the game relies on us not lynching the vig and him picking the right target.

MOD QUESTION:

If scum target a vig, and the vig targets the scum, do both kills happen, or only one? If only one, which one? how do you handle that for this game?

Depending on the answer to that question, we may be best off if the vig claims; we can then decide who to lynch and who to have him try and kill (since his internal scumdar sucks). Yes, scum will kill the vig that night, but we'll have a shot at getting two scum, leaving 1 scum 4 townies -- good odds. If our choices for lynch and vig target are both wrong, then we lose. If we get 1 and 1, then we're at 2 scum, 3 townies, LYLO, which is more-or-less where we are already. Or, if the vig doesn't claim, we know we're dealing with an SK.

Unless a scumkill on the vig stops the vig from killing, in which case the vig needs to keep his head down and this brilliant but foolhardy plan is worthless.

[Xdaamno]

MOD QUESTION:

If scum target a vig, and the vig targets the scum, do both kills happen, or only one? If only one, which one? how do you handle that for this game?

Mod: Normal Vigilantes and normal Mafiosos have the same priority, and therefore neither action is able to negate the other action; both would end up dead.

[Peers]

Okay, good. So... I propose we ask the vig to claim. We can then work together to pick two targets: One to lynch, one to have the vig kill since he hasn't gotten lucky since Day One. We'll lose our vig, but we've got a much better chance of getting one, hopefully two scum.

And if there's no vig, we know we're dealing with 2 scum and an SK.

Anyone opposed?

[Gorrad]

That could work, but why do you now think we aren't in LYLO? I'm willing to go along with it if we aren't, but I didn't really see any reasoning why we wouldn't be. I might just not have seen it, I'm not saying it's not there.

[October Raven]

Yes.

The vig is probably our only remaining power role (assuming we have one). To have him out in the open means he's going to be killed, or worse, scum will claim vig and the real vig will be considered the 'liar' of the two, leading to a mislynch. Worse yet, we're wrong about the night kill, so we have him wide open and lose him and another townie during the night.

Not saying it's a bad idea, but without a doc it's way too risky.

[Peers]

That could work, but why do you now think we aren't in LYLO? I'm willing to go along with it if we aren't, but I didn't really see any reasoning why we wouldn't be. I might just not have seen it, I'm not saying it's not there.

Theory: I was wrong. We're not in LYLO. There's 8 of us. We suspect 2 scum remaining/SK or 3 scum remaining/vig. If the game is 2 scum/SK, then we are not in LYLO; a mislynch, scum-kills-townie, SK-kills-townie would bring us down to 6, and -then- it would be LYLO. If the game is 3 scum/vig, then we are in LYLO only if we lynch the vig; if we do, scum kill someone else, 3 scum, 3 town, game over. If we lynch a non-vig townie, then the vig miskills another townie (his track record so far has sucked) and scum kill a townie, 3 scum, 2 town, game over.

We're not in LYLO if there's only two scum and an SK; if there's three scum and a vig, we're in LYLO. That's the other thing asking for a vig claim could do; tell us if we're actually in LYLO or not. If there's no vig, then there's an SK (or two scum groups, now that I think about it... which would put us in LYLO again... nevermind)

[clockwork]

And if there's no vig, we know we're dealing with 2 scum and an SK.

Anyone opposed?

Sounds good to me, though I'd like to point out that it's still possible (likely even, IMHO) that a bus driver role has been responsible for the unusual night actions.

BTW, unless I see something to change my mind, I intend to vote Quagmire after we've had a suitable period of discussion. Just putting that out there.

[Gorrad]

Same here. Hey, I got an idea, let's use FoSs instead of votes while we might be in LYLO. That way we can have a bold statement without risking a quicklynch.

FoS: Quagmire

. I'll post FoS counts like vote counts.

[Quagmire]

Same here. Hey, I got an idea, let's use FoSs instead of votes while we might be in LYLO. That way we can have a bold statement without risking a quicklynch.

FoS: Quagmire

. I'll post FoS counts like vote counts.

There's 8 alive. We're not in LYLO.

I figure that I'm going to get lynched today. That's fine, I guess, because there's absolutely no "case" against me and I find myself unable to defend against what people are suspicious of me for (ChronX).

What I can say, however, is that Gorrad has gone this entire day making sure that he has been inoffensive to everyone; he doesn't want to make any hasty decisions and is not actually saying anything until someone else has said it. See the two posts ahead of mine in chronological order for proof.

What does this all mean? It means that Gorrad is very hesitant to do anything today -- which is bad, bad scum in my opinion; he is making sure that a bloodthirsty Gorrad won't come back to bite him in future days, so he's being a peacethirsty Gorrad. This comes in the form of making sure nobody votes for me, after suspecting me wildly yesterday, and "voting in FOSs."

[Gorrad]

Quagmire, I think you're scum. I really do, and will not say otherwise. That being said, I'm going to prove you wrong.

Vote: Quagmire

. He scum, so he won't get quicklynched.

[clockwork]

Quagmire, just to be clear, you've claimed as a vanilla townie. Is that right?

Gorrad, go ahead and count me in your project if it proceeds. But I'd rather not formally FoS right now since it seems unnecessarily inflammatory.

[Quagmire]

Quagmire, just to be clear, you've claimed as a vanilla townie. Is that right?

Gorrad, go ahead and count me in your project if it proceeds. But I'd rather not formally FoS right now since it seems unnecessarily inflammatory.

Yes, I am a vanilla townie.

Also, look how Gorrad is suddenly changing direction.

This may come into play tomorrow when I come up as townie.

[Peers]

There's 8 alive. We're not in LYLO.

As I spelled out earlier, if three of us are scum, and there is a vigilante, then we are in LYLO... we lynch a townie, scum kills a townie, vig kills a townie, it's 3 vs 2 and we lose. If there's no vig and two groups of two scum, same deal.

[October Raven]

And now Quagmire is in the "I'm seriously townie, don't you believe me, why are you tying me to a stake and why are there people dowsing me in kerosene" mode.

[Quagmire]

And now Quagmire is in the "I'm seriously townie, don't you believe me, why are you tying me to a stake and why are there people dowsing me in kerosene" mode.

No...no I'm not. Not at all. If you would read post 534, you would know otherwise.

[Peers]

I'm still worried about Quag's whole "Why didn't the cop save me, maybe he knew I was innocent, but he voted for me, so... but he saved me ! He must have had a reason!" bit.

[October Raven]

Oh don't get me started on your "You don't have a case" BS either, Quag. You're not going to win any points with me using that 'defense'.

[Quagmire]

Oh don't get me started on your "You don't have a case" BS either, Quag. You're not going to win any points with me using that 'defense'.

OK then, please tell me why I'm suspicious and should be lynched. Use explicit detail.

I'm still worried about Quag's whole "Why didn't the cop save me, maybe he knew I was innocent, but he voted for me, so... but he saved me ! He must have had a reason!" bit.

Uh, when did I ever try to claim that he tried to save me? That post where you could have possibly taken that context from me was only me speculating on what could have happened, not theorizing like I have any knowledge about it. Because I don't. I'm thinking that Oman just made a really stupid play and forgot to vote before the deadline.

[October Raven]

Are you seriously going to make me repeat every reason I already posted?

Just look back at my posts and you'll see all the times I point out your scummy behavior.

[Peers]

I know this is risky, but I've got a hunch he's not going to get quickbussed...

vote: Quag

[Quagmire]

Are you seriously going to make me repeat every reason I already posted?

Just look back at my posts and you'll see all the times I point out your scummy behavior.

Trying to implicate people who vote for me is the only thing I see.

[vampyrusddg]

Sorry guys, still haven't got around to writing up cases yet but I will do around this time tomorrow, unfortunatly I've got to travel to a funeral in the morning so don't have the time to do it at the moment.

A couple of comments I will make is that I'm really against a vig claim. Obviously this is up to the vig (if there is one) but with the roles which have already been killed I'm guessing there isn't one, and if there is he's the town's best shot at winning.

If a vig outted himself now he would maybe get one of 3 remaining mafia (3 mafia + SK at the start is more than likely a weak set up against cop/RB/doc/vig so I would assume 4 scum) or take out another pro-town player as well as getting himself killed. In that scenario it's make or break on that one choice by one player, if he's still in there tomorrow the town still have a chance of winning. You can give any potential vig advice anyway without him revealing himself. Long story short, if a vig does out himself it's probably game over unless he hits scum (37.5% chance at best without calculating for their personal bias)

Also OR it would help if you did a post by post analysis of Quag if your that sure that Quag is scum, even if you are covering old ground. That kind of play is more likely to spark discussion and lead to a debate about the points than back biting one-liners. If it wasn't for the situation that has occured so early on D3 I wouldn't be thinking of doing a PBPA on him myself.

[clockwork]

I know this is risky, but I've got a hunch he's not going to get quickbussed...

vote: Quag

Isn't this the hammer? By my count, Quagmire is now being voted for by ooba, WaterboyWaldo, OctoberRaven, Gorrad, and Peers. That's five, right?

[clockwork]

Oh wait, I missed ooba's unvote in #516. Nevermind.