Mini 515 - The Pine Barrens - Game Over!

[opie]

(Just a quick note since there seems to be some confusion, but in Adel's Wiki page, she refers to herself as a she.)

[opie]

Where have I defended mcpaltp? Don't confuse my critique of Adel as a defense for mcpaltp. I just have a problem using Adel's "confidence" to justify a vote.

[Rishi]

First Vote Count - Day 3

ThAdmiral - 1 (mcpaltp)
mcpaltp – 1 (neko2086)

Not voting: Bookitty, Boggzie, ThAdmiral, hasdgfas, opie, Elias_the_thief

8 alive. 5 votes to lynch.

[mcpaltp]

Apparently you either are not reading my posts or are choosing to ignore them. ThAdmiral has not put a single vote on anyone this entire game. He has not put forward a case that he is confidant enough to vote on it. He is acting wishy-washy and is hoping to sneak by under the radar.

I refuse to believe that he has no strong suspicions whatsoever, and I find your defense of him to be very scummy, darling

Rundown of ThAdmiral's contributions:

-misses day one. Might have been valid, inconclusive. (0-3)
-After his absence was called out, comes back to the thread and gives some very mild observations "ryan was SO defensive", misquotes Bookitty, but falls short of building a case based on, well, anything. (4)
-lightly fingers me, cause I liked SJ's posts. (5)
-Chimes in with the stunning observation of "Not much has happened today." And wonders about opie-hasgfas, but doesn't back anything up. (6)
-In response to the misquoting-- It "was the spirit" of her posts, so that's okay right? It's just a "grammar issue" (7-8)
-He starts to get a little bite in pursuing Boo, but backs down right away in the next post (9-10)
-He gets a little uneasyness from Opie, and accuses him of lurking , descends into argument about who was lurking more with opie. (11-15)
-Aaaaand, for the rest of his posts, he's just defending Adel/Zak.(16-21)

In conclusion: Missed day 1, made a light case on Boo, misquoted her and backed down, got into an argument about lurking with Opie, and lightly defended Adel/Zak on metagame reasons.

I don't think he is just lurking, I think he is actively refusing to put his neck out at all. He strikes me as nervous scum not wanting to take a strong position that he may get called on, so he's just sitting back and trying to avoid confrontation. You feel suspicious of somebody? Make a case! You think that someone isn't scummy that is looking like she (thanks opie) looks like she is going to be lynched? If you are town, look and find some justificaiton for why you think she is town!

All I saw ThAdmiral do was to go for the lame defending, but not really coming in strong as to why he thought she wasn't scum. Again, this sets up a "I told you guys" sort of situation. I think that his behavior is consistant with scum knowing that it's a townie lynch and not wanting to get in on it to appear town. That, coupled with his abysmal service to the town and persistant lack of pursual of scum makes me think he is scum.

I also think that Neko is scum for his obvious twisting of my words, the sudden belief in Adel's MAGIC FORMULA and positions and clear sniping with the omgus crack. I think he is the loud, pretective scum to ThAdmiral's hiding under the radar position.

And if you think I'm too afraid of looking OMGUS-y,

##Unvote:ThAdmiral
##Vote:Neko2086
##Unvote:Neko2086
##Vote:ThAdmiral

I now think both of you are scum, and would be happy lynching either of you.

Oh yeah, everybody else, look at ThAdmiral's post history for me, okay? Tell me what you think. If you think I'm wrong, tell me. I think I've got scum, dead to rights.

[opie]

I'll just quickly add this about ThAdmiral, in Post 387 he also said he was suspicious of TheHermit without explaining why!

I asked him to explan his suspicions in Post 400 and he has yet to respond.

[Elias_the_thief]

Which I already explained

. see post 416

You didnt already explain that you had pressured her multiple times. You said that she hadnt been answering questions. You said nothing about multiple attempts to get said info. That being said, if what you say is true, the hammer is more understandable. I still feel there was more to be gained yesterday, but whatever. More tomorrow.

[ThAdmiral]

I will post extensively later today.

[Bookitty]

In my opinion, despite Adel's alignment, her theories are no better than anyone else's. In fact, I think they're a lot worse, because they rely on easily manipulated things like word count.

I thought Zakarum was scum, and his replacement was town. As a result, I'm going to look at my other assumptions and see if I've been biased (I'm nearly certain there's some level of OMGUS in my suspicions of ThAdmiral. It doesn't make those suspicions wrong, but it does mean I may not have been objective) and try to give everything a fresh look.

Right now, though, I don't see any case on opie other than Adel's theory. Since Adel's theories also include self-voting and insulting other players in the game, I'm not going to go along with her ideas about opie, especially considering I have yet to see anything I considered scummy from opie in this game.

I don't agree with Neko's points regarding Adel. I think that Adel's behaviour was such that even if she had intended to help the town, she was distracting from the actual, helpful discussion that we were having. She replaced a character who was already under suspicion, and rather than explaining his actions, she chose to barrage us with diagrams and theories. Even if Mafia could be played based on statistics alone, I didn't want to play it like that. Adel seemed determined to try to make certain there was no possibility of playing it any other way, however, since if you criticised her method, she proceeded to "prove" you were scum by a secondary method mentioned later.

[And insulting the other players in a game that was both active and fun? For the record, I'd much rather play exclusively with SA players, whatever they are, than people who are rude and insulting without any real reason.]

Neko, Adel more or less accused you of being scumbuddies with ThAdmiral in an early post. If you are now expressing faith in her methods, does that extend to her suspicions of you?

[ThAdmiral]

I'll just quickly add this about ThAdmiral, in Post 387 he also said he was suspicious of TheHermit without explaining why!

I asked him to explan his suspicions in Post 400 and he has yet to respond.

It hardly matters now but he constantly seemed to come to his conclusions after other people already had.

[ThAdmiral]

Firstly I would like to say I think the scum have either been very clever or very lucky in this game. Most likely both.

Secondly I would also like to say that while I have been playing mafia on this board and others for a decent amount of time I don't feel like I am particularly good at finding and catching scum.

To expand on the first point we can see that this is the case simply by looking at where we find ourselves now. Two days in we have lost four townies and have hit no mafia in reply. With 8 players left another town lynch will most likely result in a mafia victory (assuming 3 scum). The first town death was handed to them; first by boggzie with his assertion that due to a suspicious pm ryan was scum, then by the town who supported his assertion (and condemned ryan's defensiveness), and then by ryan himself who essentially committed suicide. The second, too, was handed to them in a way; adel was a townie with such a different, and perhaps flawed, style of thinking that it was all too easy for opinion to be turned against her.
Most harmful to town, however, is the fact that now, staring down the barrel, we find ourselves without much real information, and without any solid leads. Looking at the situation subjectively, I understand that the best case is me.

An accusation that has been leveled at me a few times now is that I haven't followed through on any solid cases on anyone. Sadly I have to admit that this is true. Once again I reiterate that having missed day one (and I stress it was indeed for reasons out of my control) I felt like I was on the back foot from the start. I will also reiterate my second point: that I am not greatly confident of my scum-catching abilities. In past games I have been inconsistent in my methods, have relied on my gut, and have been often wrong. In this game I feel even further handicapped due to the aforementioned lack of any real information.
However, perhaps rather than simply being bad at catching mafiates I could instead just be called more cautious than most (in this game at least, a bit more caution may have been a useful thing as on both days the strongest cases proved to be incorrect. Furthermore, to clear up another point, I didn't necessarily think adel wasn't scum, I simply said that her style, which was consistent with other games, couldn't be used as an argument that she was - that it couldn't reveal her alignment either way). My cautiousness has sometimes helped me to stay alive longer into games than I would have if I had attacked people harder. True, this behavior does not seem as helpful to town (as mcpaltp pointed out), but on the flip side a surviving townie is better than a dead one.

I have mentioned before on a number of occasions that I feel that opie is my number one suspect. I could build a case against him, and maybe it would be strong, and maybe it would lead to his lynch and, maybe he would even turn out scum. But that's a lot of maybes.

As I have said the mafia have played the game very smart, and have also been lucky. However one piece of luck, at least, that has not gone their way is that they have not hit any power roles yet.

At this stage of the game if there is a cop or anyone that has any extra information I would say you have to reveal it now.

If not I don't think we will make it to the next day.

[opie]

ThAdmiral, this post just seems really defeatist to me. I know we've lost four townies, but come on. If you think someone is suspicious, go for it.

True, this behavior does not seem as helpful to town (as mcpaltp pointed out), but on the flip side a surviving townie is better than a dead one.

I don't understand this. You may have survived, but we've lost four others. How is having you survive better than any of the others who have died?

This is at least the third time you've called me out as suspicious with out giving us a clear reason why. If you are not sure of you "scum hunting" abilities, quit thowing names out there without stating why. If you have reasons you find me suspicious, I think you owe it to the town to tell us. We can't rely on a cop to bail us out. So far none has come forward, so until one does we need to figure this out for ourselves and this defeatist attitude is not helping any of us, except the scum.

Vote: ThAdmiral

[mcpaltp]

Well, your points of being "cautious"=townie survives this far is only good if I believe that you are a townie. If you are scum, not making any enemies is one of the best goals you could have. I am unconvinced.

As much as I think ThAdmiral may still be scum, I think he is making some good points. Chances are high that we are at lylo. Three scum, which is standard for a game this size, means that if we are off in this lynch, the scum will have a majority, and we will lose. I'm going to join in the call for anyone with useful information to come forward. NOTE: this is

not a categorical call for cops/roleblockers/doctors/trackers/whatever power roles to claim!

If you do not have useful information, you may get something useful tonight if we live. So shut up.

It would also be rad if people put their cards on the table and revealed who they are most suspicious of and why.

For me, obvobvobvfobv it's ThAdmiral and Neko.

ThAdmiral for his fear of being suspicious of anyone and not voting or contributing much, and neko for twisting my words, changing his opinion of Adel's MAGIC FORMULA after she flipped, and sniping. I'd be happy with either of these lynches, as I think both are scum. My vote is on ThAdmiral for right now, but my suspicions are about equal.

What are the rest of youze's postions? Own up!

[Bookitty]

I'm waiting for Neko's response about Adel's linking of Neko and ThAdmiral as scumbuddies before I place a vote. I think it's odd that Neko is trusting Adel's theories as regards others, but ignoring the suspicion Adel put on Neko himself.

That said, I personally didn't see anything scummy about Neko before this selective and somewhat self-serving insistence that Adel's theories are probably correct EXCEPT for the one that paints Neko and ThAdmiral as scum.

[ThAdmiral]

Having just reread over adel's posts I hardly think she put any strong suspicion on either myself or neko. We were only mentioned in passing in one of her posts (a run down of what had happened so far) and it was more musing than a serious accusation of us being scumbuddies.

[neko2086]

Bookitty, are you referring to Adel's voting pattern notes? Uhm, I asked her about that almost immediately to see why she focused on me, and she basically said they were just notes. I thought it was odd, but she shifted her focus onto others. If you can find further proof that she suspected Admiral and I of working together, please share.

Oh, and just because Adel was no fun to play with, doesn't mean everything she says is invalid. If you are insinuating that you would lynch her

regardless

of her status, that is almost scummier than you voting for ryan to clear your name.

I think it's hilarious you and mcpaltp are trying to connect us, when it's so obvious that opie and mcpalpt are

following each other's footsteps

. You've been after admiral for awhile, and you've been following opie and mcpaltp closely as well.

You know what? Maybe Adel's methods were shit, but if they were, damn was she lucky, because the blatant cooperation between opie and mcpaltp is astounding.

Please, will somebody at least acknowledge this as a possibility? Admiral, get a motherf'ing backbone and give your opinions already. As scummy as the people voting for you are, I hope they will inspire you to say something already. If you are town, for chrissakes do something to be helpful, because admitting that you're a weak link is only going to make you more of a target, get you killed, and make us lose. The only reason why I think you are town at this point is because of the obviously scummy bandwagon forming against you right now.

Mcpaltp, just freakin vote me already. Oh, you won't will you? Ok, so you will, but you'll change your vote back (as if that's supposed to prove you're not afraid of an omgus vote). You know your vote against admiral is too important for your scumbuddies to be able to lynch him.

That's all for now

[Bookitty]

Neko, I'd like you to point out the post where you feel I insinuated I would lynch Adel regardless of her status. I never said that, and I'd like to know why you're implying I did.

Adel made comments in her voting pattern notes that linked you and ThAdmiral pretty definitively. I have given reasons for every single one of my votes, and I defy you to find a vote that was "following" anyone else, much less Mcpaltp, whom I listed as one of my top three suspects in the first place.

Why are you flailing around and blindly following Adel, as if she had some special knowledge based on an untested method? I don't think you're scum, Neko, and I'm not going to vote you, but I don't like how you're slavishly following someone whose first serious post threw serious doubt on YOU.

If you're so sure she's right, then why would you discount that post, which was actually based on WHAT people posted, not how many words per vote they used?

[neko2086]

Sorry for not being clear, but this is what made me question your motives for voting Adel

[And insulting the other players in a game that was both active and fun? For the record, I'd much rather play exclusively with SA players, whatever they are, than people who are rude and insulting without any real reason.]

My question to you was if you are insinuating that you didn't care whether or not she was town.

To address your other concerns, I don't think you read this...

Opie, that's exactly why I'm not ready to start voting you yet. I wish Adel would have qualified her numbers, and she didn't. I thought mcpaltp was scummy before and his actions now are only confirming that, so he's the only one of her conjectures I'm willing to follow right now. However, now that you are trying to defend him, I think that's reason to start suspecting you. Not nearly enough for a vote, no, but your voting patterns are suspect too. IGMEOY

Plus, when I said, "You know what? Maybe Adel's methods were shit, but if they were, damn was she lucky, because the blatant cooperation between opie and mcpaltp is astounding," I thought I made it pretty clear I'm not making my cases solely based on Adel's fancy little equations.

To say that I am slavishly following Adel's suspicions is severly exaggerating things. I decided to look into her suspicions, question those implicated, and I think the reactions that have come from it have satisfactorally put valid,

qualifiable

suspicion upon your heads.

[Bookitty]

Neko:

I would prefer that people not insult other players, especially when they are guilty of the same kind of "spam" that they were attacking others for. Adel voted for HERSELF rather than play with us. That's indicating SHE didn't care whether or not she was town.

If you didn't find that vaguely offensive, and insulting to those of us who've committed to this game, then you and I are just different.

I voted Adel before the offensive and unnecessary comments, which I suspect you know. I did so because I had thought Zakarum was scum and Adel came in distractive and unhelpful and made me think she was scum. I resent her nasty comments to people on a personal level, because I feel she was trying to spoil the fun of the game for the rest of us. That part is separate from her alignment in game.

I could support voting Mcpaltp because of the case I've already made on him, because of his recent postings, and because he has consistently been one of my top suspects. But I don't agree on Opie, any more than I agree that you've been scummy. I intend to do a reread on Opie, but right now I don't see any better evidence for Opie as scum than that he agrees with someone I think is scum... and that's hardly much of a scumtell. Town and scum quite often agree, and town often disagrees with each other.

I think your case on Opie is weak. I agree with your case on mcpaltp. And I'm not basing anything on Adel's logic, because I think her theory is unproven and unreliable, and I haven't seen that her track record in general is good enough to justify relying on her results. I prefer using my own methods, rather than hers.

[opie]

neko2086, could you outline your case for a opie-mcpaltp connection?

[neko2086]

My case against opie is underdeveloped. I think I've already admitted this and explained why. Before Adel's lynch, you were never the focus of my attention, which means you were low in my suspicions. For that reason, I still suspect you less than mcpaltp, but once Adel started putting you in the spotlight, your reactions have been very interesting. Looking back at voting records, I've noticed that you, mcpaltp, and Bookitty have consistently voted together. Granted, you don't all give the same reasons for voting ryan/Adel/Admiral (in the case of Admiral, only opie and mcpaltp are voting for him, but Bookitty has voted for him the last time he came under suspicion, and she is returning to the case, likely distancing herself as much as possible from opie and mac before placing a vote), your voting records strongly suggest an alliance.

Now be realistic for a moment. Maybe I'm wrong about the three of you, but the likelihood that I am wrong about

all

of you is nearly impossible. That is why for the moment, I'd rather concentrate on mcpaltp than opie, because I think the case against him is much stronger. But don't worry, Opie, I'll be keeping an eye on you.

Boggzie and bookitty, you have both perplexed me from day one. I don't know what to think of either of you at this point. IGMEOY as well.

Oh, just so everyone knows, the semester is coming to a close, so my posting may be sporadic for awhile. I'll try not to get behind, though, and I won't get to a point where I'd need to be replaced. Just an fyi.

[mcpaltp]

Hmmm, hmmm hmmm. So, your case is that opie and I have found the same people scummy throughout, with Bookitty chiming in for two of the "lynches" too, right?

Let's take a look at the final (official)votecounts, shall we?

Fifth Vote Count - Day 1

ryan - 3 (Boggzie, mcpaltp, opie)
Bookitty - 3 (Elias_the_thief, TheHermit, Zakarum)
Boggzie - 2 (ryan, hasdgfas)

I this was the last votecount before ryan killed himslelf. at -4

Eleventh Vote Count - Day 2

Adel - 5 (opie, mcpaltp, Bookitty, neko2086, Adel)
Bookitty – 1 (Elias_the_thief)
neko2086 - 1 (TheHermit)

Not voting: Boggzie, ThAdmiral, hasdgfas

This was the last votecount before Boggzie hammered.

Now, what do you notice from this? First, that ThAdmiral never votes and that ryan was at

-4

to hammer. Reading over the post history, Bookitty was getting a lot of heat, and had had recently unvoted Ryan, and both Elias the thief and TheHermit had jumped of Ryan to pile on Bookitty.

Now, this raises a few qestions. First: WHY DID RYAN CLAIM? AAARG! he was at -4, fer crying out loud. A lot of crap could have happened between -4 and lynch. Admittedly, he was under a fair amount of pressure, but he still had a long way to go. This calls into question the usefulness of this data, but for the sake of argument, we will press on.

Now, you claim that I, opie, and bookitty are all linked. Why not Boggzie? He was on all of the lynches. Why does he get a free pass? Interesting. You mention him in the inital case you made, but you zoom in on me for some reason. Are you trying to protect somebody? Remember folks, we are at LYLO (probably, assuming 3 scum) so the scum only need to get one townie lynch.

Finally, do you seriously think that the two townies that either got themselves killed or were lynched were not acting scummy as hell? Let's reiterate: Ryan *freaks out* at getting any criticism levied at him at all. Adel has a MAGIC FORMULA that tells her who the scum are, won't share the methods and *freaks out* when called on it. Apparently, we live in a town that is so high strung, any accusations make townies want to throw themselves off their roof after tearing down the weathervane!

And furthermore, I still see your tunnelvision in me as suspicious. I have worn my opinions on my sleeve this entire game. I got into trouble over it when ryan killed himself-- that cheesed you, remember? And it appeared to fluster the heck out of Adel. So I had a wrong gut call on two townies, they were acting scummy as hell, and when I see someone as scummy, I call them out and keep at them until either my gut is assuaged or they are lynched. Deal with it. I still see both Neko and ThAdmiral as scummy, and would gladly be a part of a lynch on either of them.

Oh yeah, if you could re-state the case against me in the form of a bulleted list, I'd appreciate it. It seems all over the place, and I'm kind of getting conflicting messages, particuarily if I follow your logic and find half the townies equally scummy. (ZOMG Bookitty, Boggzie, mcpaltp, and Opie all voted for two people that were town! ZOMG).

I'd also like to see you try and defend your floundering scumbuddy, ThAdmiral. Why do you think NOT EXPRESSING ANY OPINIONS EVER is not scummy? Ready-- go!

ps Where the heck are hasgdfas, Boggzie, Elias the Thief and ThAdmiral? Do you have any opinions? (probably not in the case of ThAdmiral .)

[Bookitty]

Neko:

You have your facts regarding me a little wrong. I made a case against ThAdmiral for misquoting me. I found that very suspicious (and I'm sure there was an element of OMGUS, I'm not going to pretend otherwise, in my suspicion) and I pushed that case independently of anyone else, voting for him for that reason. A reread will verify this.

I had suspicions of Zakarum (I was wrong about that one, but I wasn't alone in being wrong), of ThAdmiral and McPaltp. I made cases against all three, with the one against Zakarum being the strongest, in my opinion.

Since then, I've unFOSed ThAdmiral, due to something he said that seemed amazingly pro-town to me and not something scum would say or think. So I am not "returning to the case". I was asking YOU why, when you're putting so much stock in Adel's unproven theory and not developing a case for yourself, you didn't feel the need to address the accusations Adel made about you and ThAdmiral, nebulous and unsubstantial as they were.

At this point basing your suspicions on an unproven method, instead of coming to your own conclusions based on real evidence, makes it look like you don't want to take responsibility for making up your own mind. If you're sure Adel was right, then vote Opie. Build a case, show your evidence, and I might even find myself in agreement with you, but I'm not seeing any evidence in that direction myself.

If you're looking at real evidence and not Adel's theorising, sure, I myself agree that McPaltp is the way to go today, and I'm likely to vote him for reasons I've already posted.

But if you're just going to pick and choose what parts of Adel's analysis most suit your current case, and ignore the rest, then I see no reason to consider your opinion any more valid than I found hers to be.

[hasdgfas]

Where the heck are hasgdfas, Boggzie, Elias the Thief and ThAdmiral? Do you have any opinions? (probably not in the case of ThAdmiral)

Sorry, been busy lately. Attempting for get my thought down. Will try to get them up by Wed, but I'm preparing for a thanksgiving trip and it might be crazy. If I don't have all my thoughts, they won't get up until next week, but I'll do my best to get some small thoughts up on Wed at the very least.

[hasdgfas]

EBWOP: it's been 3 days since I last posted, that's not an uncommon amt of time to go w/o posting, and it's been a rather busy 3 days.

[mcpaltp]

Nah, buddy, I was just hoping to spark a little conversation ITT. It's cool, but I was just wondering where people stood.