Open 19 - Nightless (Over?) before 430

[Elias_the_thief]

Huh. Why are you surprised by the reactions from me and Skruffs? I think if a person just accepts your vote happily, then it is not a good sign. I always like to know why someone voted the way they did. The way you voted, with no explanation, seemed more like an attempt to join a town wagon, especially coupled with your surprise at the questions. But I don't really think you're scum, meta wise. Right now, your vote trail is too confusing to follow.

[Simenon]

Vote Count

VitaminR (2)- Skruffs, Guardian
TonyMoonshine (1)- Thok

Deadline still November 22nd

[Simenon]

Prodding VitaminR

BORING

[Thok]

We have a deadline in four days, set right for Thanksgiving (thank you very much mod). People who have not yet voted today need to vote now, since we are likely going to have half the people unable to post at the deadline.

I'm did some rereads of Elias/Skruffs to get a feel for them (and to make sure that I don't mess up by assuming that somebody is obvtown when they are actually scum).

I've started with Elias. Something that struck me was the Elias/Romanus argument on page 27. Elias's 665 in particular looks quite protown to me (note that it started a Romanus wagon). I also noted Tony's response to this in post 675/679 which was to call this a distraction and start pushing back on Aimee. (Looking over my comments, I've noted the wagon on Romanus on page 28 and VitR.)

There's also the whole reaction to the threat of the Oman modkill.

I'll also note that VitaminR spent a significant amount of time calling Elias protown, then sort of out of the blue in 691 he said he would be interested in an Elias lynch. I also don't think VitR has ever explained why he's found Elias suspicious (except possibly as a process of elimination thing). There's sort of some comment where he finds Elias's attacks on Romanus insincere, but I don't really see that (and it's a much weaker attack now that we know Romanus is scum).

I looked over some of Skruffs comments and tried to match them to comments I read in C&H. For the most part they agreed in tone. I should probably hunt for a mini in which Skruffs was scum to compare them.

Bah, all of this has me leaning towards VitR/Tony as the last two scum. Except that makes some of the day 5 voting weird.

[Simenon]

Thanksgiving (thank you very much mod)

Make me happy and I'll try not to land the next one on Christmas.

[Guardian]

Short answer, I actually felt I gained a lot of info from your switch to VitR, which basically confirmed to me that you and VitR aren't scum together.

But my initial vote of Tony says nothing about me-Tony? I see both a double standard in this, and I don't see how my switch would prove anything.

Given that the style of your vote on VitR (no reasoning, sort of out of nowhere) is completely different from your style of your vote on TonyMoonshine (lots of arguments), I don't see why I can't interpret them differently.

So you think a no reason vote is more likely to indicate lack of pairing than a reasoned pursual? Mmmk..

Of your votes, your VitaminR vote most resembles you 4th vote on MOS/Adel. That sets up warning flags in my head.

How so?

Also, your attack on Skruffs/Elias is a double standard given that you're attacking me for doing the same thing (making a vote that appears to be a sudden change).

Quite the opposite. If they had attacked me, at least that would be something. All they did was absently ask 'why?'.

I'm curious how you think VitaminR should have responded to your vote.

Some incredulity? Asking me why I voted him? Frustration? Acknowledging its existence? He seemed entirely nonplussed, and that bothered me.

I claim that you could equally well attack him if he had made any of those responses.

I disagree.

If he acknowledged my vote and at least asked why I was voting him, even minimistically as Skruffs and Elias did, I would be less suspicious. But he completely ignored my vote, and I find that odd.

[Guardian]

Huh. Why are you surprised by the reactions from me and Skruffs? I think if a person just accepts your vote happily, then it is not a good sign. I always like to know why someone voted the way they did.

I agree with the later sentiment -- but don't you think it is more natural to react in some way, in addition to wanting to know why?

The way you voted, with no explanation, seemed more like an attempt to join a town wagon, especially coupled with your surprise at the questions.

Why not say this earlier, instead of just asking 'why?'. I find it odd that both you and Skruffs are only analyzing my vote when I press the issue and ask you to.

But I don't really think you're scum, meta wise.

Well, that's good at least.

Right now, your vote trail is too confusing to follow.

Hm?

[Guardian]

We have a deadline in four days, set right for Thanksgiving (thank you very much mod). People who have not yet voted today need to vote now, since we are likely going to have half the people unable to post at the deadline.

Myself included, most likely .

I'm did some rereads of Elias/Skruffs to get a feel for them (and to make sure that I don't mess up by assuming that somebody is obvtown when they are actually scum).

I've started with Elias. Something that struck me was the Elias/Romanus argument on page 27. Elias's 665 in particular looks quite protown to me (note that it started a Romanus wagon). I also noted Tony's response to this in post 675/679 which was to call this a distraction and start pushing back on Aimee. (Looking over my comments, I've noted the wagon on Romanus on page 28 and VitR.)

There's also the whole reaction to the threat of the Oman modkill.

I'll also note that VitaminR spent a significant amount of time calling Elias protown, then sort of out of the blue in 691 he said he would be interested in an Elias lynch. I also don't think VitR has ever explained why he's found Elias suspicious (except possibly as a process of elimination thing). There's sort of some comment where he finds Elias's attacks on Romanus insincere, but I don't really see that (and it's a much weaker attack now that we know Romanus is scum).

Could you explicitly state what conclusions you draw from these analyses?

I looked over some of Skruffs comments and tried to match them to comments I read in C&H. For the most part they agreed in tone. I should probably hunt for a mini in which Skruffs was scum to compare them.

Again, concreteness?

Bah, all of this has me leaning towards VitR/Tony as the last two scum. Except that makes some of the day 5 voting weird.

This seems very vague to me. I can see how it might follow from the above, but I and others can't follow your reasoning if you don't explain it -- could you try and be more explicit as to why your analysis leads you to this conclusion?

And if this is your conclusion, does that change your thoughts on who should be lynched today?

[Thok]

So you think a no reason vote is more likely to indicate lack of pairing than a reasoned pursual? Mmmk..

I felt the timing and suddenness of it was too ham-fisted to be bussing, while I felt that your argument with Tony was more designed to make it look like you really thought Tony was scummy. And please note the word "confirm"; I had been arguing that I didn't think you and VitR were scum partners based on your interactions before that.

Of your votes, your VitaminR vote most resembles you 4th vote on MOS/Adel. That sets up warning flags in my head.

How so?

Gee I don't know. Both are sudden out of the blue votes on people you hadn't expressed much suspicion of before, and at least one of them helped give a townie lynched. How could I possibly find that suspicious? [/sarcasm]

Also, your attack on Skruffs/Elias is a double standard given that you're attacking me for doing the same thing (making a vote that appears to be a sudden change).

Quite the opposite. If they had attacked me, at least that would be something. All they did was absently ask 'why?'.

Elias at least claims to strongly believe that you are a townie now; why would a sudden vote lead him to change that assessment into directly attacking you? Similarly, Skruffs finds VitR much scummier than you, and one vote shouldn't suddenly switch his perspective.

I'm curious how you think VitaminR should have responded to your vote.

Some incredulity? Asking me why I voted him? Frustration? Acknowledging its existence? He seemed entirely nonplussed, and that bothered me.

I claim that you could equally well attack him if he had made any of those responses.

I disagree.

If he acknowledged my vote and at least asked why I was voting him, even minimistically as Skruffs and Elias did, I would be less suspicious. But he completely ignored my vote, and I find that odd.

[/qupte]

If VitR had attacked you, you could have claimed that he was guilty of shifting his position on you and claimed OMGUS.

If he merely asked you to give reasons, you could claim he should be more agressive in attacking you an find him suspicious, or that he was being defensive.

No matter what his response was, you could have come up with some reason to attack him, the fact that you are telling me what you find suspicious after VitR makes that behavior doesn't really tell me that you actually find that behavior suspicious.

Could you explicitly state what conclusions you draw from these analyses?

Gee, what do you think the last post of the quote was for (where I specifically said I'm leaning towards VitR/Tony scum)? I'm also not particular all that thrilled that you want concreteness from me, given that Setael spent a significant amount of time attacking me for not being concrete, and that you've shown that if you are town, then you don't understand the type of arguments I make. (Our discussion about Romanus makes that clear.)

You could also read the posts in question: for the Elias stuff the summary is that Romanus made some comments, Elias asked him to clarify his thoughts, Romanus overreacted to those comments (IMHO) and attacked Elias, and Elias appeared to get legitamately angry and helped to get a wagon started on Romanus. Tony claimed that argument was a distraction from lynching Aimee, and later VitR tried to attack Elias of "being insincere" and defended Romanus based on gut (despite the fact that VitR had found Elias protown up to that point).

That behavior stengthens my belief that Elias is town, and to a lesser extent supports the possibility of Tony and VitR defending Romanus.

As for Skruffs, there are some comments from him that strike me as weird (the fact that he's accused me several times of lurking, for example)-I wanted to see if he made similar comments in a protown game, and I found he had also accused me of not saying stuff in C&H. That suggests some consistency to his behavior to me.

And frankly part of the reason the I keeping stuff vague is that what I'm looking for is vague; I'm looking at people who I already think are protown, and therefore who's actions are likely to seem protown, and see if I've missed some undercurrent to their actions that looks unnatural or forced. I'm partially mentioning stuff as a "hey this concept seems to be useful for analyzing this game; maybe somebody should try thinking about this and see what conclusions they get." I'm expecting people to double check these posts themselves and continue the conversation I've started.

As for your final question, I'm happy with my vote, as I'm still more comfortable with the idea of Tony being scum then VitR (the probabilities are something like 85% and 55% respectively).

[VitaminR]

Guardian, I fully expected you to switch to me. You're generally suspicious of me and there's enough meat behind Skruffs and Thok's cases. It all fits a certain intuitive narrative.

Honestly, I don't even want to hear it. I'm not going to convince you and I don't think you'll come up with anything interesting.

Thok, Elias was really thoughtful early on in the game, but as it progressed, I noticed that he wasn't really doing anything with that. Elias has consistently avoided pushing a wagon. He has posted non-controversial analysis and refrained from getting into any real discussions.

I think Elias has a better chance of being scum, but I'll vote Tony in an attempt to save my hide.

Vote: TonyMoonshine

[Thok]

Thok, Elias was really thoughtful early on in the game, but as it progressed, I noticed that he wasn't really doing anything with that. Elias has consistently avoided pushing a wagon. He has posted non-controversial analysis and refrained from getting into any real discussions.

Except that I just mentioned the whole deal with Elias and Romanus around page 27, which seems like a partial contradiction to what you are saying. He did get into an actual fight with actual scum and started pushing on him.

[Elias_the_thief]

Thok, Elias was really thoughtful early on in the game, but as it progressed, I noticed that he wasn't really doing anything with that. Elias has consistently avoided pushing a wagon. He has posted non-controversial analysis and refrained from getting into any real discussions.

I think Elias has a better chance of being scum, but I'll vote Tony in an attempt to save my hide.

Vote: TonyMoonshine

Dont try this bullshit. I didnt try to avoid wagons, for a large portion of the game I could only post about once a week.

[Skruffs]

I was scum in the Mafia 6(2?7?) the werewolf one, and lost.
I was scum in mostlymute, and in a few newbie games.

I'm usually a lot more erratic and hard to follow as town.


I will feel bad for harranging and harassing VitaminR, because most of my suspicion behidn him is on the theory that he plays consistently as scum. The (I think) abrupt change in his playstyle shortly thereafter in regards to who/how/why he's voting,a s well as the almost fatalistic view point, kind of messes things up for me. He seems to acknowledge that the reasoning behind my case is valid (see soon after Setael was lynched for where I got this impression), and may even be trying to adjust his playstyle accordingly, but I think that both town or scum would do so, town so as to try and be a better town, scum so as to get rid of the reasoning behind the wagon.


So for now, I am still happy with VitaminR. Maybe Elias is just laying low until later in the game - it would be interesting to see when his posts seem to 'clump' as compared to sections of each day.

[TonyMoonshine]

As for your final question, I'm happy with my vote, as I'm still more comfortable with the idea of Tony being scum then VitR (the probabilities are something like 85% and 55% respectively).

So, you want to play with probabliities and odds? Well, I put it at 2/1 Guardian is scum, 3/1 Thok is scum, 4/1 Vitr is scum, 20/1 Elias is scum and 200/1 Skruffs is scum. Does this mean anyting? No. I pulled that out of my ass. Just like you are doiing. We don't even know if you are going with your head or gut. Let's deal with facts and not made up probabilities and odds.

Fact: Thok voted Guardian and unvoted twice.
Fact: IH is/was town.
Fact: Vitr is voting for me to save himself.

Skruffs, what do you think?

[Thok]

So, you want to play with probabliities and odds? Well, I put it at 2/1 Guardian is scum, 3/1 Thok is scum, 4/1 Vitr is scum, 20/1 Elias is scum and 200/1 Skruffs is scum. Does this mean anyting? No. I pulled that out of my ass. Just like you are doiing. We don't even know if you are going with your head or gut. Let's deal with facts and not made up probabilities and odds.

Pretty sure that any probabilities are only intended to give town a record of what I am thinking at the moment; they aren't meant to be an argument in themselves. Also pretty sure that I've spent as much time explaining my thoughts and actions as anybody today. Pretty sure I've brought up more facts than anybody else today also, and certainly more than you.

Fact: Thok voted Guardian and unvoted twice.
Fact: IH is/was town.
Fact: Vitr is voting for me to save himself.

Any reason you are only worried about 3 facts in the game?

Fact: You have not been on a single scum lynch this game.
Fact: On at least one occasion you accused people who were attacking Romanus of distracting from an Aimee lynch.

[VitaminR]

Thok, for the majority of the game that still applies. It's not a 30-page game.

Dont try this bullshit. I didnt try to avoid wagons, for a large portion of the game I could only post about once a week.

That's fair enough, but it does mean that I have doubts about your alignment, if only in absence of anything strikingly pro-town.

[Thok]

Dont try this bullshit. I didnt try to avoid wagons, for a large portion of the game I could only post about once a week.

That's fair enough, but it does mean that I have doubts about your alignment, if only in absence of anything strikingly pro-town.

Paraphrase: "Fair enough. I didn't actually have a case, but I'm going to act like I had one while simultaneously backing away from my argument."

[VitaminR]

Thok, that's uncharacteristically vindictive.

One argument with Romanus simply does very little to undermine my point.

[Thok]

Thok, that's uncharacteristically vindictive.

One argument with Romanus simply does very little to undermine my point.

No, the fact that you aren't trying to provide evidence for your point and back down from it when Elias calls you on it undermines your point.

(There are other bandwagons Elias was on also; he was one of the ones pressuring Guardian, for better or worse.)

[Guardian]

I'm here. I can see where you are coming from Thok, actually -- if you are town. I'm not convinced of that though, especially with this switch to Tony.

Tony has been scummy but I don't want to switch back. Everyone's recent actions make me think VitaminR is better. This is probably the last time I'll have to post/think about it so... hope we lynch scum! And happy thanksgiving!

[Simenon]

Vote Count
VitaminR (2)-Skruffs, Guardian
TonyMoonshine (2)- Thok, VitaminR
Sorry, but I don't believe in Thanksgiving miracles.

At deadline, the player with the majority of votes is lynched. If two players are tied for the majority of votes, it will be decided randomly.

Original Roll String: 1d2 (STATIC)

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Simenon]

TonyMoonshine, mafia, was lynched day seven.

No deadline yet.

[Skruffs]

!
Luck is with us. It doesn't mean VitaminR is town, but it definitely needs to be evaluated, because I had Elias and Tony both in the 'mostly townish' list.

[Thok]

Well that's good news.

No vote yet; I'd like to hear what people have to think about the now known fact that Tony is scum.

[Simenon]

No deadline yet. Enjoy your thanksgiving, and sorry for setting a deadline (I really don't like giving extensions.)