Mini 1830 - Game Over

[House]

1)

House saying there could be both bodyguard and doctor in the game doesn't make sense and I don't think he's explained it, has he?

@ House:

Can you explain this please? Or if you have, can you link me to it?.

To elaborate: House wanted to trick scum into fakeclaiming doctor.

Not really, but lol.

He may not have said it himself, but he agreed when I said it.
2) How does
Quickhammer = changes vote after counterclaim?

Where does me laughing at you for making assumptions about my motives give you the idea that I agreed?

I'll admit I'm not the greatest at figuring out which PR build are most typically together in minis because most of my time has been in larges (most games in smaller games, most time in larges).

I was tossing that offer out there as a Hail Mary because it would keep two conftown alive I'd the mod had actually given us a useful protective role to make up for this shit-tastic BG crap.

[House]

Also there's at least 3 town PRs. We should assume there's at least one for scum.
Did Square claim his abilities? Can't find it.

Pedit: Let's say you used it, who'd you target?

He only claimed the roleblocker to cc eager.

And idk if I want to claim that because it would affect the shot.

[House]

There stupid if they don't kill me anyway since keeping me alive backfired.

I'd protect CCC because Gamma is still lynchbait if I'm dead anyway.

[gerryoat]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

[Huntress]

He may not have said it himself, but he agreed when I said it.
2) How does
Quickhammer = changes vote after counterclaim?

1) But you said that when he explained it it made a lot of sense, and now you're saying he was just agreeing with you? I think we're going round in circles here. I asked in 1679 what made

you

think that, not what House said. Can you go back and answer that please.

2) There was no counterclaim. House put his vote back on Victor purely because Victor said he was going to bed. You sheeped him, thus enabling the hammer. Read what you wrote in 1591. The knowledge that Victor wasn't lying could apply to you just as much as to Jester.

And instead of seeking clarification, you were happy to sit back and let me lynch him and only spoke up after his wagon fell apart.

I believe I did say that I wasn't interested in lynching him, when there were two votes on him (neither from you by the way, but you do seem to want to take credit for everything that happens in the game, even when it's others that are doing it). Contrary to what you are saying I did ask him for clarification, but I was more concerned with sorting out my thoughts on you.

[House]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

^scumclaim

Team is Huntress and gerry.

[House]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Dude, you were just waiting for your buddy's fake claim to vote me.

It would have been suicide to fake claim body guard ON DAY TWO.

You are scum, plain and simple.

[House]

Anyone that doesn't see this complete 180 of Gerry's read on me simply for derailing the Gamma mislynch as the scum desperation tactic it is probably flushes the toilet with their mouth open.

[Gamma Emerald]

He may not have said it himself, but he agreed when I said it.
2) How does
Quickhammer = changes vote after counterclaim?

1) But you said that when he explained it it made a lot of sense, and now you're saying he was just agreeing with you? I think we're going round in circles here. I asked in 1679 what made

you

think that, not what House said. Can you go back and answer that please.

2) There was no counterclaim. House put his vote back on Victor purely because Victor said he was going to bed. You sheeped him, thus enabling the hammer. Read what you wrote in 1591. The knowledge that Victor wasn't lying could apply to you just as much as to Jester.

And instead of seeking clarification, you were happy to sit back and let me lynch him and only spoke up after his wagon fell apart.

I believe I did say that I wasn't interested in lynching him, when there were two votes on him (neither from you by the way, but you do seem to want to take credit for everything that happens in the game, even when it's others that are doing it). Contrary to what you are saying I did ask him for clarification, but I was more concerned with sorting out my thoughts on you.

1) I thought he was doing it because it felt like a likely town play.
2) Clarify your point please.

[CCC]

The only suspicions I had against Rhaz were from posts 29 and 89, mainly the latter. I'm still baffled by the fuss House made over my not voting him when I finished my original catch up. From the rest of Day one I did get the feeling that he wasn't quite so interested in lynching CCC as he made out to be, but that's a bit subjective.

Yeah, House does tend to talk up his cases a lot. But he did that in the last game I played with him too, and he was Town there, so that's not alignment indicative by any means.

[CCC]

What if the scum townreads me?

Ummmm... scum don't need to read. Scum

know

. And they

want

Town lynched.

[CCC]

I'm going with Huntress and gerryoat.

VOTE: Huntress

L-1, I think?

So out of 6 players, you're going with those two, putting one of them at L-1, and your highest scumread so far is now obvtown because they were at L-1 for 5 seconds and were not hammered.

While I don't know everything that goes on in House's head, it seems reasonable to point out that House was already starting to townread Gamma after he (House) wasn't killed last night.

[CCC]

I get a hammer on scum making someone town, but a first vote? Especially right after night is over, seems like your average distancing technique. Not saying I find it suspicious, just think it's kind of a stretch to clear someone just because they voted scum.

I voted on Saturday 8 Oct. Day 3 started on Monday 3 Oct. (I took a while to vote because I didn't want the day to end early).

Huntress was my first vote of the day, but I wouldn't call it "right after night is over".

[CCC]

CCCs case is bad there is nothing about why Huntress is scum only why others could possibly maybe not be scum.

...

I would like to hear the reasosns why people are voting Huntress right now.

That part of my case is earlier, in post 1735:

I think the remaining scum are between CCC, House and Gamma, and that there's been some hard bussing going on.

This when Jester is being fairly widely scumread.

Of the three people mentioned by Huntress here, one (myself) I know for certain sure is Town. One is very probably Town; that is House. And then there's Gamma. There are good reasons to scumread Gamma, but House has recently made a very good case for the idea that Gamma is Town.

Consider the possibility that Gamma is Town. If this is true, then Huntress just proposed a scumlist of three (out of seven) players who would all be Town. The odds of three

random

players including

zero

scum (assuming two remaining scum) are (5/7)*(4/6)*(3/5) = 2/7.

Yet a scum player has a strong incentive to suggest a scumlist that consists only of Town players. Let's say that a scum player has an 80% chance of producing an entirely-Town list of reads.

The prior probability of Huntress being scum (still assuming two remaining scum) is 2/6. Then the odds of Huntress being scum from this single piece of evidence (assuming that Gamma is Town) increase to over 50%.

I can go into more detail about the calculations, but basically, if Gamma is Town then Huntress is probably scum. And House being alive does strongly suggest that Gamma is Town.

[CCC]

Actually, I don't need to. If this flips town, then that will do everything. If this flips maf, then I will admit I was wrong, and tip my hat to you.

At this point, if Huntress flips Town, I will need to re-evaluate

all

my reads.

[CCC]

I'm giving the "Gamma Is Town" hypothesis a good look because I think that House has a good point; leaving House alive looks a lot like trying to end up getting Gamma lynched, which suggests that it might be a mislynch.

If both were town, which do you think scum would consider more of a threat: House or Gamma?

Of those two? House would have been the bigger long-term threat. Gamma would have been little to no threat (due to being mislynch bait).

I don't see the relevance.

She did step into the game and almost immediately leap to a suspiciously convenient scumread, which she's then sat on and pushed ever since.

What was "suspiciously convenient" about my initial reads (four of them, not one as you claim here)? "Almost immediately" is inaccurate too.

Your first two posts can be summarised as "Hi, catching up". Your third post was a bunch of questions to eager, square, victor and gerry. Your fourth post was a vote on me, on the basis of zero direct interaction and (apparently) because I was so scummy talking to others. That's almost immediate - second substantive post.

And I never said all your scumreads were suspiciously convenient. But your vote was.

And your latest readslist consisted of me, House, and Gamma. House makes way more sense as Town than Scum, and I think he's got a good point about him not dying overnight suggesting that Gamma is likely Town. And I know I'm Town. This is a very suspicious readslist, because the odds of picking three players out of seven, with an estimated two scum, and getting

no

scum are only two in seven. (If you were Town, moreover, you'd be picking three players out of

six

- there's only a one in five chance of that leading to a scumfree list. And that's the odds if you pick

randomly

. If I assume you have even the vaguest competence at recognising scum, your odds of getting it that badly wrong drop even further).

[CCC]

JoaT flipped.
Watcher flipped.
Bodyguard claimed. Not cc'ed.

Almost all my posts since your claim have raised a question about your claim, which I guess is the real reason you're attacking me.

I'm a bullet-proof townie

and although it's not a direct counterclaim, I don't see us having four town PRs in an eleven player game, especially where three of them have a chance of preventing a kill (Square claimed a block).

Bodyguard only transfers a kill, doesn't prevent one.

You may well be right about there not being four Town PRs in an eleven player game; if so, then the fakeclaim is either you or House (Square and Victor being confirmed by their flips).

And, honestly, right now, House is looking a

lot

Townier than you. Hence, I don't believe your claim. My vote will stay where it is for the moment.

[CCC]

Also there's at least 3 town PRs. We should assume there's at least one for scum.
Did Square claim his abilities? Can't find it.

Square counterclaimed Eager's roleblocker claim. Aside from that, he didn't claim his abilities.

[CCC]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

[House]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

He kinda has to, that's her buddy.

[CCC]

Whew, that was quite a bit to catch up on.

My current thoughts: I'm quite happy with my current vote on Huntress; she's looking very scummy right now. Gerry's sudden attack on House looks pretty suspicious; malpascp's posting looks pretty neutral, which earns him a place as the least townish of People I Think Are Town for the moment. Gerry's earlier push on Gamma is now making it look like no-one could reasonably be on a scumteam with Gamma, which puts Gamma a little Townier than malpascp. House and Manuel sit firmly on the Townier end at the moment.

[CCC]

VOTE: House

Don't see the point of there being a BP and a BG. I think House is fake in the two.

Why do you say

House

is the fake one?

He kinda has to, that's her buddy.

Well, he won't admit to that, so I want to see what answer he comes up with...

[House]

gerry overplayed his hand because he's locked in to buddies with Huntress and they'll be chain lynched if town does derp and lynch the towniest fucking player in the game.

Although if they'll lynch

me

, then I officially write them off as being too stupid to win.

[Manuel87]

Ill say it again there is no way House is scum.
There was no reason for him to get people off me and push the lynch on Eager. It would have been easy to push anyone (besides from Grendel maybe) that voted for me the next day because noone actually had a good reason to vote for me.

@malpascp: why do you call intent after that claim? Because Bullet-proof actually makes a lot of sense if you ask me.

[House]

Ill say it again there is no way House is scum.
There was no reason for him to get people off me and push the lynch on Eager. It would have been easy to push anyone (besides from Grendel maybe) that voted for me the next day because noone actually had a good reason to vote for me.

@malpascp: why do you call intent after that claim? Because Bullet-proof actually makes a lot of sense if you ask me.

If I'm not scum, you pretty much have to believe Huntress is.