Mini 1830 - Game Over

Huntress · Post Post #1725 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:35 am

I gave my reads in 1669.

I'm not keen on voting Gamma at the moment. Still debating with myself over House and will try to put something into words on that later.

Vote: CCC

Eggman · Post Post #1726 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:43 am

Vote Count 3.02

Not Voting

: CCC, Manuel87

The_Jester

: Gamma Emerald, House

(L-2)

Gamma Emerald

: The_Jester, gerryoat

(L-2)

CCC

: Huntress

With 7 players alive, it takes

4

players for a lynch.
The deadline for this day is (expired on 2016-10-17 14:00:00).

House · Post Post #1727 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:12 am

In post 1725, Huntress wrote:Still debating with myself over House

Translation: Our attempt to ride into town with guns blazing over a single mislynch flopped and now I have to back away somehow.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1728 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:17 am

I'm reconsidering my reads right now, as Huntress has been very scummy today.

House · Post Post #1729 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:20 am

In post 1728, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm reconsidering my reads right now, as Huntress has been very scummy today.

Not half as scummy as Jester, who promptly disappeared after his shitty push wasn't sheeped.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1730 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:26 am

My Huntress scumread is stronger than my one on CCC now.

House · Post Post #1731 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:27 am

In post 1730, Gamma Emerald wrote:My Huntress scumread is stronger than my one on CCC now.

That makes sense, considering CCC is town.

The_Jester · Post Post #1732 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:12 am

In post 1729, House wrote:
In post 1728, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm reconsidering my reads right now, as Huntress has been very scummy today.
Not half as scummy as Jester, who promptly disappeared after his shitty push wasn't sheeped.

Yeah it's not like I'm site-wide inactive.
No time to play so

I gotta replace out, sorry Mod

. My RL situation was different when I signed up for the game.

CCC · Post Post #1733 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:00 am

In post 1645, House wrote:In no circumstances ever does Gamma predict me flipping my read after I've been hardcore scumreading him since d1.

Yeah, this is a pretty strong argument. Anyone

else

might have left you alive specifically in order to get a mislynch on Gamma...

CCC · Post Post #1734 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:16 am

In post 1691, Gamma Emerald wrote:Actually: Gerry Huntress Manuel Jester CCC I suggest you all do color coded reads too.

In order from Town to Scummiest:

CCC

Manuel

House

Gerryoat

Gamma

Huntress

The_Jester

Further notes: Gamma and Jester are unlikely to be both scum. Huntress and Gamma are unlikely to be both scum. I therefore suspect the current scumteam are probably Huntress and The_Jester, with the option of Gerryoat accompanying them or replacing one of them.

My read on Huntress has changed recently. I will go into why in my next post.

CCC · Post Post #1735 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:30 am

In post 1669, Huntress wrote:I think the remaining scum are between CCC, House and Gamma, and that there's been some hard bussing going on.

This when Jester is being fairly widely scumread.

Of the three people mentioned by Huntress here, one (myself) I know for certain sure is Town. One is very probably Town; that is House. And then there's Gamma. There are good reasons to scumread Gamma, but House has recently made a very good case for the idea that Gamma is Town.

Consider the possibility that Gamma is Town. If this is true, then Huntress just proposed a scumlist of three (out of seven) players who would all be Town. The odds of three

random

players including

zero

scum (assuming two remaining scum) are (5/7)*(4/6)*(3/5) = 2/7.

Yet a scum player has a strong incentive to suggest a scumlist that consists only of Town players. Let's say that a scum player has an 80% chance of producing an entirely-Town list of reads.

The prior probability of Huntress being scum (still assuming two remaining scum) is 2/6. Then the odds of Huntress being scum from this single piece of evidence (assuming that Gamma is Town) increase to over 50%.

CCC · Post Post #1736 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:34 am

For reference:

In post 1678, Gamma Emerald wrote:Quick reads, town to scum (now in color):

House, Manuel,
Gerry
CCC, Huntress,
Jester

In post 1690, House wrote:
Manuel87
Gamma Emerald
CCC

gerryoat

Huntress
The_Jester

In post 1692, Manuel87 wrote:
House
Huntress

Gerry
CCC

Gamma
The_Jester

In post 1704, gerryoat wrote:
House

Manuel

CCC

Huntress

Jester

gamma

In post 1734, CCC wrote:
CCC

Manuel

House

Gerryoat

Gamma

Huntress

The_Jester

gerryoat · Post Post #1737 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:55 am

Huntress TRs House manuel and me. her gut says Jester is town but she said the hammer is bad and scumreads CCC. I believe she scumreads Gamma as well. Not sure tho.

House · Post Post #1738 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:56 am

In post 1737, gerryoat wrote:Huntress TRs House manuel and me. her gut says Jester is town but she said the hammer is bad and scumreads CCC. I believe she scumreads Gamma as well. Not sure tho.

She also says I could be scum.

Go figure.

gerryoat · Post Post #1739 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:56 am

@CCC why can't Jester and Gamma both be scum. Also why can't Huntress and Gamma both be scum.

CCC · Post Post #1740 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:04 am

In post 1739, gerryoat wrote:@CCC why can't Jester and Gamma both be scum. Also why can't Huntress and Gamma both be scum.

- Jester and Gamma - their vote for each other at the start of the day doesn't look like scum vs scum to me

- Huntress and Gamma - my case for Huntress being scum only works if Gamma is Town. if Gamma is scum, my case falls apart.

gerryoat · Post Post #1741 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:15 am

I can see the first one. As the reason I fos gamma more, is because it looked like he was setting up for tomorrow before the day. So for a different reason, I don't think they can be partners.

2nd one, I will have to look into more.

House · Post Post #1742 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:26 am

At any rate, I think we should lynch Jester today since his scum read is pretty much universal and sort which of Gamma/Huntress is their buddy tomorrow.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1743 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:29 am

I'd explain why I said what I said at the end of Day 2, but I'll just say it was only for myself.

gerryoat · Post Post #1744 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:31 am

In post 1742, House wrote:At any rate, I think we should lynch Jester today since his scum read is pretty much universal and sort which of Gamma/Huntress is their buddy tomorrow.

Why not wait for his replacement? Maybe he can provide better content?

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1745 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:33 am

In post 1744, gerryoat wrote:
In post 1742, House wrote:At any rate, I think we should lynch Jester today since his scum read is pretty much universal and sort which of Gamma/Huntress is their buddy tomorrow.
Why not wait for his replacement? Maybe he can provide better content?

Are we lynching him right now? No we're not.

House · Post Post #1746 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:04 pm

In post 1585, CCC wrote:
In post 1576, House wrote:
In post 1574, CCC wrote:
In post 1424, VictorDeAngelo wrote:no way we have a Watcher/Bodyguard combo here.
Why not?
Because investigative + protective + support makes no sense!

/s
Why not? It could be balanced out with scum roles as necessary.

/s denotes sarcasm

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1747 (ISO) » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:11 pm

prodge

Manuel87 · Post Post #1748 (ISO) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:34 am

In post 1722, House wrote: She's done a whole lot of nothing.
It's quite possible her vote on eager was bad distancing that she got caught up in and couldn't justifiably leave the wagon after I started pushing him.

Thats possible. The question is do i think she is a player that would make that mistake. It would have been easy for her to stay on her CCC read instead.
Her read on you is still unreasonable and i see only one reason why she would have a read like that in our current situation but she mentioned she will exlain so i will wait for that.

In post 1735, CCC wrote: This when Jester is being fairly widely scumread.
Of the three people mentioned by Huntress here, one (myself) I know for certain sure is Town. One is very probably Town; that is House. And then there's Gamma. There are good reasons to scumread Gamma, but House has recently made a very good case for the idea that Gamma is Town.
Consider the possibility that Gamma is Town. If this is true, then Huntress just proposed a scumlist of three (out of seven) players who would all be Town. The odds of three
random
players including
zero
scum (assuming two remaining scum) are (5/7)*(4/6)*(3/5) = 2/7.
Yet a scum player has a strong incentive to suggest a scumlist that consists only of Town players. Let's say that a scum player has an 80% chance of producing an entirely-Town list of reads.
The prior probability of Huntress being scum (still assuming two remaining scum) is 2/6. Then the odds of Huntress being scum from this single piece of evidence (assuming that Gamma is Town) increase to over 50%.

I am more suspicious of CCC right now.
Yesterday Gamma was his scumread and today he considers him town in his calculation but still has him as a scumlean.
Yesterday Huntress was his 3rd highest townread and today after she got some scumreads on her she dropped into one of his mainscumreads for twisted math reasoning.
You can easily twist math the way you want it to be and thats what he is doing here.

I have read into Gammas first game a little and VI could make sense for him but i still need to read the other games to see how he developed his playstyle.

CCC · Post Post #1749 (ISO) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:25 am

In post 1744, gerryoat wrote:
In post 1742, House wrote:At any rate, I think we should lynch Jester today since his scum read is pretty much universal and sort which of Gamma/Huntress is their buddy tomorrow.
Why not wait for his replacement? Maybe he can provide better content?

I'm in favour of waiting for the replacement. More data is good.