Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

BTD6_maker

(2): Mas y Menos, Gamma Emerald

BlackStar

(1): Alchemist21

Gamma Emerald

(1): BlackStar

Not voting

(1): BTD6_maker

With 5 votes in play, 3 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 13 October at 03:05 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-13 03:05:00)

)

[BlackStar]

I looked back at the vote counts. One day 1, xyzzy wasn't on key's mislynch wagon. He was voting for mas on both days. I doubt that both him and his partner were off key's wagon on day 1. The people who were on it were me, gamma, alchemist mas and key. Key flipped town, I'm town and xyzzy was pushing mas so hard that mas probably isn't his partner. So that just leaves Alchemist and gamma as X's possible partners. Alchemists posts about me have been pretty terrible, but I believe that he really believes what he's saying so I guess he's town. So that just leaves Gamma. Gamma was on the mas wagon yesterday too, so I'm pretty sure he's the last scum.

VOTE: gamma

What did you guys think of this?

[BTD6_maker]

Like if it was alchemist I think he would kill blackstar
If it was gamma he would kill alchemist or black star.
BTD6 is only one who makes sense to me as making that terrible kill.

Black star probably would have killed alchemist

Why is that kill terrible? I'm pretty sure anyone could have killed CR.

[BTD6_maker]

Alchemist is a likely other scum, and so is Blackstar at the moment as possible people who would kill RB and CR.

For now:

VOTE: Alchemist21

[Gamma Emerald]

I've already determined rb was chosen by xyzzy. I would like you to explain why Alchemist would kill CR, BTD.

[Gamma Emerald]

@BlackStar: can you give your top two scumreads?

[Alchemist21]

I looked back at the vote counts. One day 1, xyzzy wasn't on key's mislynch wagon. He was voting for mas on both days. I doubt that both him and his partner were off key's wagon on day 1. The people who were on it were me, gamma, alchemist mas and key. Key flipped town, I'm town and xyzzy was pushing mas so hard that mas probably isn't his partner. So that just leaves Alchemist and gamma as X's possible partners. Alchemists posts about me have been pretty terrible, but I believe that he really believes what he's saying so I guess he's town. So that just leaves Gamma. Gamma was on the mas wagon yesterday too, so I'm pretty sure he's the last scum.

VOTE: gamma

What did you guys think of this?

It's a reasonable perspective if you're Town, but I still disagree that Gamma is scum.

Alchemist is a likely other scum, and so is Blackstar at the moment as possible people who would kill RB and CR.

For now:

VOTE: Alchemist21

Pushing me is a move I think scum BTD is less likely to have made here given the current gamestate. Being at L-1 and listing someone who already has a vote as their other scumread I think BTD would have voted Black Star here.

I've been thinking that if we lynch wrong today, then the 3-p lylo this game will see is the final scum player + Mas and Gamma. I'm strongly Townreading the two of them and they're both Townreading me so a lylo with me + either of them and the final scum player would mean a loss for scum which is why I think I'm the one who would die tonight. Though it's mitigated right now, Mas and Gamma have been suspecting each other, and I would expect the final scum to use that at 3-p lylo. If Black Star is scum, he's opening the path to voting Gamma tomorrow if Gamma's not lynched today (a lynch that I doubt will happen) and he can remain comfortably off the BTD wagon if that's the one that goes through. If BTD is scum then he could just be staying off the gamma/mas division until tomorrow since it would be reasonable for his reads to change so drastically at Lylo, but he would have to survive to tomorrow, and as I said in the previous paragraph I imagine scum BTD acting in a more self-preserving fashion.

All that said, I think this game may depend on whether Mas and Gamma can trust each other. Things seem to be going that way and I hope they continue in that direction.

[Gamma Emerald]

I can trust Mas, but I don't think his chances of survival are that good. I ran a scumread count, and Mas has no one scumreading him. Therefore, he is the optimal nightkill choice for anyone except Mas, as killing himself at night is impossible. I decided it was best to share my calculations, so here they are.
BlackStar: GE, Alchemist, BTD
GE: BlackStar, Mas
Alchemist: BlackStar, BTD
BTD: GE, Alchemist, Mas
Mas: NO ONE
The only one I can see changing are BlackStar's, as his were entered without proper affirmation, and are based on his statement that the last scum was likely on the key wagon D1.

[Alchemist21]

That may be true. My thinking is that you or mas voting for the other is scum's only hope of winning. I would expect it more from Black Star to kill Mas tonight rather than BTD (mainly because I think Black Star would make that kind of "fuck you, you can't predict what scum will do" move).

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

BTD6_maker

(2): Mas y Menos, Gamma Emerald

BlackStar

(1): Alchemist21

Gamma Emerald

(1): BlackStar

Alchemist21

(1): BTD6_maker

With 5 votes in play, 3 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 13 October at 03:05 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-13 03:05:00)

)

[callforjudgement]

Mas y Menos has been prodded.

[Mas y Menos]

I might just prod dodge till end of day, I really think it's btd. I don't think it's black star and I am 99% sure it's not alchemist.
Gamma is meh but leaning town overall.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Mas y Menos: what do you think of this post?

I can trust Mas, but I don't think his chances of survival are that good. I ran a scumread count, and Mas has no one scumreading him. Therefore, he is the optimal nightkill choice for anyone except Mas, as killing himself at night is impossible. I decided it was best to share my calculations, so here they are.
BlackStar: GE, Alchemist, BTD
GE: BlackStar, Mas
Alchemist: BlackStar, BTD
BTD: GE, Alchemist, Mas
Mas: NO ONE
The only one I can see changing are BlackStar's, as his were entered without proper affirmation, and are based on his statement that the last scum was likely on the key wagon D1.

[Mas y Menos]

Unkind if makes ne doubt my townread on black a little.
Wait that's people who scum read?
Nvm.

I don't really think that's useful?

[BlackStar]

@BlackStar: can you give your top two scumreads?

You're my top scum read for the reasons I've already given. If it's not you, then it might be BTD because he always voted with xyzzy

[BTD6_maker]

MyM, do you have other reasons for voting me besides the kill on CR?

Anyway, I Townread Gamma Emerald. After the CR kill this is my strongest Townread. I will not lynch this slot today.
MyM and Blackstar are somewhere. Probably around null. Blackstar was my weakest Townread and MyM was my weakest scumread after the kill, so they are quite close. I am not convinced it's them, but they are within FOS range. I will lynch here if I have to.
That leaves Alchemist21, my strongest scumread at this point. I want this slot lynched today. If Blackstar moves here then this could work.

[Alchemist21]

Lynch or no lynch, it's October now. Time to get spoopy.

[Gamma Emerald]

HOLY SHIT WHAT

[Alchemist21]

lol Caledfwitch made a bunch of Halloween avatars last year and this is the one she made for me.

[Gamma Emerald]

Shiny Mode activated.
I felt Shiny Mega Rayquaza was a good idea for Halloween.

[Mas y Menos]

This is to avoid prodding.
Maybe I should get new avi for october?

[Gamma Emerald]

Nah you chill Mas.

[BlackStar]

Cool avatars

[callforjudgement]

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[callforjudgement]

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