Mini Normal 1829 - Game Over

[Elyse]

If I was scum, we would know that there is either an SK/vig in the game. My "buddy" would be protecting me.

And scum can't kill and perform an action on the same night because...?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

If I was scum, we would know that there is either an SK/vig in the game. My "buddy" would be protecting me.

And scum can't kill and perform an action on the same night because...?

Setup Info Rule #6. Can't do an action and kill at the same time.

That's what's stumping me about scum!Shadow.

[MichelSableheart]

[...]

"almost certainly" wtf is this shit.
Why aren't you keeping an opening mind? Why the fuck can't there be a RB or a JK who blocked NC.
Stupid Nero has made it so easy for scum to jump on my wagon, it's ridiculous.

Let's see...

First of all, a mafia doc is much more likely then a mafia roleblocker because of setup speculation. A mafia doc interacts differently with a vig (block the kill), a tracker (can be tracked) and the gunsmith (investigate as innocent), making it an interesting role in the setup. By contrast, a roleblocker is far less interesting, as it interacts with all town roles in the same way. I believe that chilledtea therefore would be more likely to give the mafia team a doc then a roleblocker.

Secondly, blitz speculated that there was a vig during day 2, when we hadn't seen a vig kill yet. She is far more likely to guess there's a vig when scum has a doctor (whose main job is to prevent kills) then a roleblocker (which stops a wide variety of roles).

Thirdly, a mafia doc is more likely to prevent a vig kill then a mafia roleblocker. The mafia doc is going to target the scummiest member of the scumteam, and the vig is going to target scummy players in general. The chance of both roles targetting the same player seems to me higher then the chance that a roleblocker would specifically target the vig. Given that a kill was prevented night 1, this is therefore more likely to be the result of a scum doc.

Okay let's just consider this for a second.
IF nero shot me and I was protected by scum doc, it means I am scum.

Consider this

6) A mafia member can only carry out his faction kill, or his individual ability, but not both.

If the scum doc protected me N1, he would protect me N2 as well.
Which means I did the kill, but only I didn't! I investigated Kraska.

^this is why i'm hesitating, Elyse

he could have fakeclaimed vanilla cop, but what's with the Kraska investigation? A lucky guess??

I'm with Kraska's post #2172 on this one. Scum vanilla cop makes quite a bit of sense, as we have a rather strong town. And I strongly disagree with his reasoning that a scum doc would have to protect him night 2. I can easily see the scumteam choosing to gamble that there either isn't a vig, or that the vig won't target the same player 2 nights in a row. Especially since that gamble would give them an additional rolecop result, and therefore help them find the powerroles.

@Giga: I'm only up to page 40 in my reread, so I find it difficult to answer your question of who is scum if Shadow is town. Goon/Goon/Roleblocker doesn't seem completely out of the question to me, as the roleblocker is a pretty powerful role. I'm reasonably happy to rule out you as scum in that scenario though, as I really don't think blitz would have pushed hard for your lynch as an alternative to hers in the situation where you were both scum. I'm also pretty happy to consider Nero a vig. Currently, I would probably look at a Karnos/Elyse pairing in that situation, but my opinions on Kraska and Thor can still easily change.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Goon/Goon/Roleblocker doesn't seem completely out of the question to me, as the roleblocker is a pretty powerful role.

Probably a bad ssumption to make but I don't know, if the roleblocker had more than 1-shot, wouldn't it make more sense to roleblock Nero a second time after an investigative role's flip? I wouldn't assume more than one or two investigative roles if I were in the scumteam, and if I killed one investigative role and roleblocked someone else, I would assume it's safer to roleblock that person a second time (especially if there was a risk of there being a vig).

Plus it's kind of silly of me to assume every mafia team would approach this situation the same way I would probably want to (never played scum before so I'm not even sure if this logic is sound/what most people would think)... The above idea, set-up spec implying that there is a doctor though is what makes me think that we're more likely dealing with a 1-shot roleblocker and doctor or just a doctor, and that Matrix6 balances its Cop/VT set-up without a roleblocker all made me not consider that there could just be a single roleblocker.

sorry my thoughts are kind of incoherent, i'm phoneposting and that tends to happen when i write a few paragraphs on a smaller screen... also putting a reminder to myself to look for mini normals with serial killers to see how they're balanced and to talk more about my kraska townread

[MichelSableheart]

If a roleblocker blocked nero, the scumteam wouldn't have any indication that that block did anything. They wouldn't have reason to believe there is a vig in that scenario. So their powerrolereads might simply have changed, causing them to block someone other then nero night 2.

But if it's your belief that a scum roleblocker would have targeted nero night 2, isn't that more evidence for there being a mafia doc rather then a mafia roleblocker, making shadow scum?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

But if it's your belief that a scum roleblocker would have targeted nero night 2, isn't that more evidence for there being a mafia doc rather then a mafia roleblocker, making shadow scum?

well, yes, but then that brings up the question of what happened N2?

One scenario is Shadow shoots + partner night-actions, but then Shadow couldn't have known that Kraska was a VT (Kraska's reaction to Shadow's claim today was really town, I didn't read it as SvS, and I'm already strongly townreading kraska), since he can't shoot and investigate. The only way I can think this happened exactly like this is that Shadow actually investigated Kraska N1 and decided not to investigate N2, making Elyse the fake investigation. It's also possible that he DID investigate Elyse as scum (why is beyond me) and he guessed Kraska's role correctly, but Occam's Razor and whatnot.

There's also Shadow investigates + partner shoots, which is a bit more plausible, but then there's the question of which scumteam can take the risk if they still believe there is a vig? Or, if there's a roleblocker rather than doctor, then why is having the cop investigate more important than having the roleblocker block?

[MichelSableheart]

Out of those scenario's, two seem plausible to me.

Investigating Kraska N1, noone N2 is a possibility. Elyse had already claimed VT during day 1, so she was a safe fake investigation target. Or shadow could be confirming his partner's (Elyse's) fakeclaim.

The scenario where shadow investigates and partner shoots seems more likely to me, though. A vig whose kill got blocked is not that likely to shoot at the same target and risk getting blocked again. Besides, since there was no vig kill night 1, scum could have thought that there was no vig in the game. Scum doc could just be there to give the tracker more results, after all.

[MichelSableheart]

I've completed my day 1 reread of day 1, but it's bedtime for me now. I'll hopefully find the time to gather my thoughts on day 1 tomorrow. I'll definately continue reading day 2 tomorrow, as well.

[Elyse]

If I was scum, we would know that there is either an SK/vig in the game. My "buddy" would be protecting me.

And scum can't kill and perform an action on the same night because...?

Setup Info Rule #6. Can't do an action and kill at the same time.

That's what's stumping me about scum!Shadow.

Well he could've just lied about kraska. Worst case scenario he outs the vig

[Nero Cain]

I think this whole thing about me gambiting or being an SK are both weak.

[Shadow_step]

Could you dodge more questions ?^

[Nero Cain]

What did I dodge?

[MichelSableheart]

If I look at the rest of day 1 (starting from page 30), there are a couple of observations I want to make. I'm not going to comment on Nero, as he is very likely town given the Gerry kill.

First of all, there is the transcend situation. He was rightfully replaced, but posts like blitz' #915, #922 or #942 look like she may have been goading him. Given that, her arguing for a transcend lynch rather then replacement in #930 could easily be an attempt to create an emotional mislynch. Which makes Giga more likely town.

Thor continued keeping up his consistent good play. His townreads in #1326 are all either confirmed town or highly likely town. His consistent defense of Giga looks good now that a giga/thor scumpairing has become effectively impossible. I'm still inclined to read him as town.

Kraska used day 1 to mildly push against blitz and elyse, while defending most other players. She wasn't all that involved though; the blitz wagon never gained much traction, and the Elyse wagon was mainly pushed by other players. It feels like she might have been trying to get townpoints for defending pro-town players without actually doing all that much to actually protect them. No strong suspicions, but I could see her as scum. Interesting to note is her #1376, which set up the shadow (role)cop claim perfectly.

Other then me, Elyse was probably the strongest advocate against the fakeclaimed masons, arguing strongly for giga scum. She was willing to compromise, starting a shadow wagon in #1186, then joining a Gerry wagon in #1218. Between that vote and the end of day 1, she didn't post anymore, so we didn't get to hear her thoughts on the Maria wagon. I find it difficult to draw strong conclusions on Elyse based on day 1, and could see her going either way.

Karnos continued his poor performance during the rest of day 1, finding the wrong reasons to argue for the trans lynch in #860, providing a virtually empty read list in #1345, showing intent to hammer without giving reasoning in #1379, and then ignoring the various requests not to hammer. Then in #1401, he already seemed to be preparing for a maria town flip, arguing that the giga scum/maria town scenario was most likely out of the four combinations (despite just having hammered maria).

As for shadow, I guess he made posts during day 1, but he was essentially non-existent. He felt that explaining why Gerry was scum one time was good enough to park his vote on an unmoving wagon, then switched to karnos despite not commenting at all on him before that. He would have been a good lurker policy lynch day 1.

[kraska77]

Wow yet another shitlord post from Michel(I mean what did I expect?)
You've been criticising my blitz and early elyse pushes the entire game up until blitz's flip, and now when it suits you...you call me uninvolved?

[MichelSableheart]

I don't think I have been criticizing your blitz and elyse pushes. I was defending blitz and elyse before the blitz flip, but I was more concerned with the behaviour of giga, nero and shadow on the blitz wagon. From what I can remember, I was mostly ignoring you, except for questioning your townread on maria day 1. Which kind of supports what I was saying here: you weren't a big factor in the discussion.

Also, a major event happened that forced me to reread and rethink my reads. So I do that, and as a result, my reads change. That shouldn't be surprising.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i didn't think that was a shipost tbh...?

i don't really care for the points vs. you but not a lot of ppl are familiar with your playstyle so it's kind of understandable

i'm kind of having difficulty irl so idk if i'll be writing that post soon but kraska is NOT playing to her scum meta. kraska is passive regardless of her alignment but the specific stances she takes and her interactions with/around flipped scum don't feel the same way they did in her scum games (both recent and older). Maybe give her ISO in Queen of Hearts (FakeGod's most recent large theme) a quick read since Kraska is working on changing her scum meta and that's her most recent game as mafia? if that alone doesn't help i'll try to explain this better but this is p much town kraska

[karnos]

I think this whole thing about me gambiting or being an SK are both weak.

I agree, which is why I'm pretty confident shadow is scum.

But if shadow flips town, what do *you* think explains his failure to die night1?

[chilledtea]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 3.07

Shadow_step (L-2) : karnos, MichelSableheart, Elyse.

karnos (L-3) : Shadow_step, kraska77.

Thor665 (L-4) : Nero Cain.

Not Voting (2) : Thor665, gigabyteTroubadour.

Day will end in (expired on 2016-10-01 18:30:00)

[Shadow_step]

What did I dodge?

IaI was universally town read where I wasn't plus Titus thinks she's able to fool me.

Why was IAI "universally" townread and you weren't, in your opinion ?
IAI was pushing for my Lynch and nobody was listening to him. You have more influence over the town. It makes no sense to keep you alive over him.

[karnos]

Karnos continued his poor performance during the rest of day 1, finding the wrong reasons to argue for the trans lynch in #860, providing a virtually empty read list in #1345, showing intent to hammer without giving reasoning in #1379, and then ignoring the various requests not to hammer. Then in #1401, he already seemed to be preparing for a maria town flip, arguing that the giga scum/maria town scenario was most likely out of the four combinations (despite just having hammered maria).

And how do you know I was wrong? The transcend/giga slot isn't town confirmed, they could be scum with shadow.

[chilledtea]

Thor665 has been prodded.

[karnos]

Thor continued keeping up his consistent good play. His townreads in #1326 are all either confirmed town or highly likely town. His consistent defense of Giga looks good now that a giga/thor scumpairing has become effectively impossible. I'm still inclined to read him as town.

Why does that make him town to you? Doesn't it make sense for scum to town read a few town, and doesn't it also make sense for scum to nightkill the highly town-read players, revealing Thor's reads as being "good"?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

karnos are you scumreading Thor too?

[Nero Cain]

Why was IAI "universally" townread and you weren't, in your opinion ?

Who was scumreading IaI? I'm p sure you were the leading wagon up to Maria getting mislynched. I'm p sure that you, Kranos and Michel were all scum reading me d1.

AI also dispute this "influence" claim. Like I told you fuckers Maria was just noise but no one listened to me.

[karnos]

karnos are you scumreading Thor too?

By PoE, to some degree. He isn't acting scummy in the usual sense, but he isn't acting like the Thor I have seen in other games either.